Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[Fourier]

All good points by you and Supreme. We would not have gone as far without our secondary scoring and depth though.

Still think cap should be more spread out. Which has been the debate lately. Think we were the oldest team in the league last year, and after losing Clouder/Holly/Broberg there is no doubt about it. We are getting older fast. Bouch is 25, McD if you can believe it is our 2nd youngest player at 27. All this $ will go to aging guys.

Can't deny what the Cats did, get rid of players getting older (closer to 30), pay the younger guy the big money and it worked out for them. I like this better. No I don't want to rid of Drai/McD, just need to make room and leave meat on the bone for others.

The point is that there is no one route to a win. Everyone here would be thrilled if Leon and McDavid ended up taking major haircuts to stay. (I actually suspect McDavid may just do that since he could easily get $16-17M if he left because his value to a team extends far beyond winning and losing). But the numbers you have suggested are just not realistic relative to their stature.

You are debating with someone here who has followed this sort of thing religiously since the day the CBA came into play. That does not mean I can't be wrong, but my position is not from lack of understanding. As I have repeatedly stated, the issue is not simply your top X players but the team as a whole. The fact that Nuge, Hyman and Ekholm are all on fantastic contracts lets the Oilers have depth while still paying their best players appropriately. In fact, aside from Nurse who is probably overpaid by no more than $2-2.5M , the Oilers have no bad contracts. As their dead cap space disappears their cap situation with everyone signed long term actually looks quite good.

 

[nerevarine]

I never understood the losing the ability to like punishment.

You would be amazed how much the laughing emoji triggers people

Ive gotten multiple trolling warnings for laughing emojiing posts

 

[Soundwave]

Broberg and Holloway took themselves out of the equation. We can try and blame in on someone but it's really on them.

When Broberg asked for 1.8, it's not really his fault the Oilers couldn't offer that and then someone else offered a slam dunk offer sheet.

The Oilers management (chiefly Ken Holland) put all the parties involved in that position by virtue of poor cap management.

People should go look up the cap of the top contending teams, most of them don't have much dead cap and brutal overpayments like the Nurse one. Sure some have huge money contracts like Bobrovsky, but these players generally provide a high level of value when they are on their game at least.

If this team learns nothing from this and just blames it on the players they are dense. This needs to be a learning moment for this org and if they needed a slap in the face about cap management, they got a very public dose of it.

 

[Drivesaitl]

All good points by you and Supreme. We would not have gone as far without our secondary scoring and depth though.

Still think cap should be more spread out. Which has been the debate lately. Think we were the oldest team in the league last year, and after losing Clouder/Holly/Broberg there is no doubt about it. We are getting older fast. Bouch is 25, McD if you can believe it is our 2nd youngest player at 27. All this $ will go to aging guys.

Can't deny what the Cats did, get rid of players getting older (closer to 30), pay the younger guy the big money and it worked out for them. I like this better. No I don't want to rid of Drai/McD, just need to make room and leave meat on the bone for others.

A cap creates a finite resource on pay. If you marry that concept to pro sports what it does in all pro sports, all around the world is that the top players end up getting more and more of that pay and really as much as allowed. For instance the moment an individual ceiling for paying one player is raised, it gets paid. Whether we agree with the should or not this is the way of pro sports having a hard cap. The superstars get the pay. They are the primary entertainers and ticket sellers. Again this being the nature of pro sports. Ain't nobody goes to a game just to see Connor Brown.

jk aside anyteam with superstars is going to have a cap weighted dynamic. Those players are going to get paid. Big time.

 

[VainGretzky]

This is the anniversary of Draisaitl's 8.5 million dollar contract signing, which worked out great and he blew away expectations of that contract, hopefully, he is superstitious and signs his new one today

 

[Drivesaitl]

This is the anniversary of Draisaitl's 8.5 million dollar contract signing, which worked out great and he blew away expectations of that contract, hopefully, he is superstitious and signs his new one today

haha. Likelihood is he doesn't even remember the date. Somebody remind him.

 

[Oilslick941611]

When Broberg asked for 1.8, it's not really his fault the Oilers couldn't offer that and then someone else offered a slam dunk offer sheet.

The Oilers management (chiefly Ken Holland) put all the parties involved in that position by virtue of poor cap management.

People should go look up the cap of the top contending teams, most of them don't have much dead cap and brutal overpayments like the Nurse one. Sure some have huge money contracts like Bobrovsky, but these players generally provide a high level of value when they are on their game at least.

If this team learns nothing from this and just blames it on the players they are dense. This needs to be a learning moment for this org and if they needed a slap in the face about cap management, they got a very public dose of i

Yes. But Broberg hasn’t shown anything that’s he’s worth the 1.8 he asked for. So that argument is kind of moot.

To your other argument. It just shows the downsides to churning management and coaches. No stability and no long term plan. You can’t change GM and coach’s every other year on average and expect consistency in organizational behaviour. We have been been so many management and coaching changes in the last two decades that it’s comical

 

[powerserge]

The point is that there is no one route to a win. Everyone here would be thrilled if Leon and McDavid ended up taking major haircuts to stay. (I actually suspect McDavid may just do that since he could easily get $16-17M if he left because his value to a team extends far beyond winning and losing). But the numbers you have suggested are just not realistic relative to their stature.

You are debating with someone here who has followed this sort of thing religiously since the day the CBA came into play. That does not mean I can't be wrong, but my position is not from lack of understanding. As I have repeatedly stated, the issue is not simply your top X players but the team as a whole. The fact that Nuge, Hyman and Ekholm are all on fantastic contracts lets the Oilers have depth while still paying their best players appropriately. In fact, aside from Nurse who is probably overpaid by no more than $2-2.5M , the Oilers have no bad contracts. As their dead cap space disappears their cap situation with everyone signed long term actually looks quite good.

Follow this as well but on a smaller scale. Does your opinion change when older core players are signed or the team as a whole gets older? We were the oldest team in the league at end of last season/playoffs (I believe), now with Clouder/Holly/Broberg potentially gone we would be the oldest by far. Even Dallas as an older team, Western champs, were favored to beat us. There is a point where age catches up which is an argument to not pay your top aging guys all the $, young players will not come unless they see growth and opportunity. There is a law of diminishing returns.

 

[Fishy McScales]

I never understood the losing the ability to like punishment.

Clearly you have not met posters like wetcoastorca or mighty makar. Count yourself lucky.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Ok
To be clear, I think Leon signs here, but, what if he doesn’t commit soon?
Do we trade him? (Wonder what that would look like) or do we keep him for “one last kick at the can”.

 

[Sra1974]

Ok
To be clear, I think Leon signs here, but, what if he doesn’t commit soon?
Do we trade him? (Wonder what that would look like) or do we keep him for “one last kick at the can”.

Probably depends on how the negotiations are actually going. If things are pretty close and you are confident a deal gets done during the season obviously not. If you are worlds apart or he’s indicating he doesn’t really want to be here, you probably need to explore the trade market.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Probably depends on how the negotiations are actually going. If things are pretty close and you are confident a deal gets done during the season obviously not. If you are worlds apart or he’s indicating he doesn’t really want to be here, you probably need to explore the trade market.

That would be the logical answer
That would be kind of like throwing the towel in on a cup though. How tempting would it be to keep him and go for it

 

[Sra1974]

That would be the logical answer
That would be kind of like throwing the towel in on a cup though. How tempting would it be to keep him and go for it

I have totally wondered that, I just don’t know. Asset management would say get something in return, but if you could get just one cup…….go for it?

 

[Drivesaitl]

Tick tock, tick tock

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

I have totally wondered that, I just don’t know. Asset management would say get something in return, but if you could get just one cup…….go for it?

I guess to sum things up, I think he signs. But, if he doesn’t I’d like to see them manage their asset to the max. (Set a drop dead date, if it passes, conduct a hell of an auction), the distraction would likely sewer the season though.
However
I don’t think I’d be horribly upset if they decided to keep him and go for it,I could understand that.

 

[Fourier]

Follow this as well but on a smaller scale. Does your opinion change when older core players are signed or the team as a whole gets older? We were the oldest team in the league at end of last season/playoffs (I believe), now with Clouder/Holly/Broberg potentially gone we would be the oldest by far. Even Dallas as an older team, Western champs, were favored to beat us. There is a point where age catches up which is an argument to not pay your top aging guys all the $, young players will not come unless they see growth and opportunity. There is a law of diminishing returns.

Age is of course a factor but the guys we are talking about are not grey beards. Bouchard is still in his RFA years. McDavid is 27 and Leon is older, given he is turning 29, but should still be a top talent for quite a few years given his skill set and hocky IQ. That shot is unlikely to disappear, and while his speed may wane some he actually thrives in slowing down the play when needed.

Overall team age can change a fairly quickly. Ryan and Perry skew the age upward a fair bit but both are replaceable. Ekhplm is really the one guy who is older who is over 33 who is a key player. And my guess is that his game ages exceptionally well. He seems to be in fantastic shape, does not have that many miles on him, and like a lot of terrific Swedish defensemen relies on his smarts to drive his game.

The Oilers actually made a few good moves to address the age issue. Getting Savoie could pay off big time if he reaches his potential. He's both young and cheap. Jarventie is less skilled but is at the point where he could step into a 4th line roll sooner than later. He is only 22, has excellent size and some finish. Replace Ryan and Perry with those two if they are ready and your average age drops by more than a full year and a half. Throw in

Now it is a fact that guys like Nuge and Hyman are getting older. That is something that you can't change. But it's also not something that impacts what you pay for McDavid and Leon.

 

[VainGretzky]

Age is of course a factor but the guys we are talking about are not grey beards. Bouchard is still in his RFA years. McDavid is 27 and Leon is older, given he is turning 29, but should still be a top talent for quite a few years given his skill set and hocky IQ. That shot is unlikely to disappear, and while his speed may wane some he actually thrives in slowing down the play when needed.

Overall team age can change a fairly quickly. Ryan and Perry skew the age upward a fair bit but both are replaceable. Ekhplm is really the one guy who is older who is over 33 who is a key player. And my guess is that his game ages exceptionally well. He seems to be in fantastic shape, does not have that many miles on him, and like a lot of terrific Swedish defensemen relies on his smarts to drive his game.

The Oilers actually made a few good moves to address the age issue. Getting Savoie could pay off big time if he reaches his potential. He's both young and cheap. Jarventie is less skilled but is at the point where he could step into a 4th line roll sooner than later. He is only 22, has excellent size and some finish. Replace Ryan and Perry with those two if they are ready and your average age drops by more than a full year and a half. Throw in

Now it is a fact that guys like Nuge and Hyman are getting older. That is something that you can't change. But it's also not something that impacts what you pay for McDavid and Leon.

Joe Thornton finished 4th in scoring at the age of 37 and as slow as Gagner I have no worries about Draisaitl

 

[McJadeddog]

I imagine we won't see a Drai contract until the offer sheet stuff is behind us on the 20th.

 

[TheTradeIsOneForOne]

Anyone else getting worried here?
What do we do if he isn’t signed by October?
Do you trade him knowing this is probably our best shot at the Cup? But then risk him walking for nothing without a cup and then McDavid surely leaves? Or do you trade him in a sign and trade deal to stay competitive, also risking McDavid walking?

I don’t like this…

 

[GMofOilers]

Anyone else getting worried here?
What do we do if he isn’t signed by October?
Do you trade him knowing this is probably our best shot at the Cup? But then risk him walking for nothing without a cup and then McDavid surely leaves? Or do you trade him in a sign and trade deal to stay competitive, also risking McDavid walking?

I don’t like this…

They aren’t signing him until he gets back to Edmonton for the season. It will get done, prob already is, just not announced

 

[oobga]

Probably good the org is keeping everything under wraps. Don't need clownish clickbait articles from Rishaug, Spector and the like.

Hope that when the deal finally comes down it means something was also agreed to with McDavid and maybe even Bouch. If Stan knows what is happening with those 3 to start this season, can plan properly how to put the finishing touches on this roster.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Anyone else getting worried here?
What do we do if he isn’t signed by October?
Do you trade him knowing this is probably our best shot at the Cup? But then risk him walking for nothing without a cup and then McDavid surely leaves? Or do you trade him in a sign and trade deal to stay competitive, also risking McDavid walking?

I don’t like this…

no
have you heard things aren't going well?

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

The proof is before your eyes. I don't care if it's McD/Drai or Nurse chasing their bag. Other players are chasing to become better and get paid some too. Screw paying the top 2 or top 4 guys. It takes a team. Lets keep arguing, calling me a troll, a new comer, an outsider, etc. Our team is not intact, because the team cannot be so top heavy as everyone projects. It would be hard to grow as a player when the top guys take everything and there is nothing left in terms of minutes and $. Well there ya go.

I really dislike secure your core, pay everyone else little concept. There ya go.

Not sure why you're being called a troll just because your opinion goes against the grain but as a conservative I can relate lol. As much as it sucks your not wrong and a team like the leafs are a perfect example and even they have a much younger team and some decent young guys to help keep costs down.
Maybe if Nurse wasn't around things would be different or if there were some good young kids busting down the door things would be easier to navigate but as it stands I truly think and not cuz I'm a nucks fan that trading him makes the most sense. The haul you could get from a team with an 8 year extension in place would be possibly franchise altering and you still have the best player in the world still.

I mean for example say the ducks are the team, Leo Carlson, or McTavish, their best D prospect, + I dunno Troy Terry? +?

From the kings, Byfield, Brandt, +

From the Sens, Brady/Stutzle? Chabot/Sanderson?

From the Canes, Necas, Niskinin, Jarvis, ?

Bottom line is I think it's plausible that pretty much every team would move mountains to get him especially young teams with lots of high-end young talent looking to take the next step or teams like the kings, canes, etc striving to get over the hump.

And since you guys have #97 you are one of only a couple of teams that could do a trade where you lose the best player and still be better after, you could not only plug some holes, be deeper and get younger while also either getting to depending on the trade move another contract to create more cap like Kane, Kulak?


I'm sure Canes fans would say that trade would never happen but think their GM would and while Necas is a big downgrade on Drai, Jarvis is a very good piece and Niskinin is arguably the best player not in the NHL and it's very likely he becomes a legit top pairing stud transforming your backend.

I hope nobody thinks I'm trolling, I'm just genuinely a fan of blockbuster trades and I can't remember the last time a player of Drai's caliber was moved and the massive chaos that would ensue would be crazy.

 

[K1984]

One of the realities of a salary cap system is that top teams will lose good players. This happened in droves to the Hawks, it happened year after year in Tampa, it happened to Colorado and to Vegas. Frankly as much as it pains to see the potential lose of Holloway and Borberg, the fact is that pretty much all of the teams above lost better and more consequential players to cap issues. You can argue that it is because they paid their stars too much but every team in the league recognizes that your stars contribute far more to winning than the depth guys do.

There is a claim that depth wins championships. To a degree there is truth to this in the sense that if you have significant weaknesses in the line-up they can be exploited and hurt you. The problem is that what is never stated is that in order for depth to really make a difference it is almost always the case that a team's top end guys need to be top end players. That is to say, you can win without top end talent period. (Ok maybe it is possible, see Carolina, but it is extremely rare.) And if you have top end talent the more depth the better, but if your top end is good enough you can get away with a lot more holes.

Every team in the league prioritizes paying their best players over their depth. In the Oilers case, they have the best player in the world and a guy who has consistently been in lists of the top 5 for years. They should be paid accordingly. If Leon gets $13.5M I will bet dollars to doughnuts that by the middle of his deal there will be a significant number of lesser players earning very close to or more than that. McDavid can make $14.5M and I'll bet that by 2028-29 Matthews will make more.

"Depth" is very quickly becoming an antiquated concept in the sense of it being a necessity to "out depth" teams in order to win. Pretty much every series the Oilers have been a part of since 2022 has come with the caveat of "Oilers are in trouble, look at the other teams' depth!" only for the Oilers to beat most of these opponents, some with relative ease.

Very few series are decided by depth. Much more are due to one of, or all three of these things:

1) Which team's elites are better, and which team's elites win the inevitable matchup with the other team's elites head to head?

2) Who has the better special teams on both sides of the puck?

3) Who has the better goaltending?

Other than point 3, which varies, the Oilers will win the first two almost every time against almost any opponent over a 7 game series. Losing Broberg or Holloway doesn't factor into any of these three points whatsoever. Going a step further, losses over the past 3 seasons in the playoffs were due to losing 1, 2, and 3 against the Avalanche, 1, 2 and 3 against the Knights, and 3 solely against the Panthers (Bobrovsky unbeatable for the first 8 periods of the series). Knights and Avalanche were "deeper" than the Oilers each year, but that was a tertiary reason they won, not the main reason.

As we get deeper in the playoffs, the moderate differences in quality between a team's 3rd and 4th lines and bottom defence pair are pretty much complete irrelevant. The only time this really factors is if a team runs into injuries, otherwise it frankly doesn't matter.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Not sure why you're being called a troll just because your opinion goes against the grain but as a conservative I can relate lol. As much as it sucks your not wrong and a team like the leafs are a perfect example .......

Bold prediction
in the 26/27 season McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard and Nurse will be eating 50M in cap and it wont be a problem cap management wise