Starat327
Top .01% OnlyHands
He's look pretty good so far since being drafted. But to your point, no he doesn't have that kind of value.
Proposal: Leon Draisaitl + Jesse Puljujarvi for Ivan Provorov + Anthony Stolarz
- Thread starter TSN Jdog
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He's look pretty good so far since being drafted. But to your point, no he doesn't have that kind of value.
Pulju said to be in a tier below Matthews/Laine and a tier above Marner/Strome, Drai just dropped a 50P 19/20YO season. Not really just forwards. "2 potentially elite players for some defenceman"
oilerbear
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- Jun 2, 2008
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anthony Stolarz
Ivan Provorov
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leon Draisaitl
Jesse Puljujarvi
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Oilers deal from a position of strength and give up their surplus forwards for positions they desperately lack. They get a can't miss top pairing defender & potential elite starter. They will also eventually need money for McDavid to re-sign so this frees up future cap space.
Flyers do this to add another layer to their offensive production and to ease minutes off of Vorachek and Giroux. Eventually Draisaitl and Puljujarvi will replace those two as their first attack options. They can survive the loss of Provorov with Morin, Sanheim and Hagg trending as top 4 options as soon as next season.
Thoughts? Does anyone need to add or is it fair?
Time to educate a poster with no clue about were actual goal differential affect comes from.
1. For any shot at a wild card playoff spot.
your forwards have to generate .31 EVGA/60 more than Dmens GA.
so you need top end GA defence. Defence the primary role of Dmen.
2.There are tonne of media people out there that think a Dman's offence is critical.
this is an outright lie!
top 300 EV goal scorers. 27 are Dmen who get 202 of the 3242 EVG scored by the top 300.
Dmen score 6.2% of the top 10 player scoring for each team.
that is almost zero offensive influence in the game.
3. On the PP #1 unit production (top 150) PP goal scorers.
14 are Dmen.
Those dmen score 8% of the top 150 PPG scorers.
once again almost zero influence on PPG production.
4. All we need to see from Dmen is them passing the puck up to the players who score 93% of the major goals in the game.
PASS THE FORWaRDS THE D...... Puck
5.What we really need to see from a Dman is the defence of the HSCA.
10.5 of the 30 shots in a game get 75% of the goals.
A teams defence has the ability to allow as little as 7.5 HSC shots to 13.5 Shots.
that is a variance of 6 shots. 6/10.5 X 75%.
in the most extreme case teams can vary by a total count of 47%
So you want the Best HSCA/60 d in the game.
The best EVGA/60 and PKGA/60 D in the game.
it use to be guys like Weber; Doughty; Pronger; Lidstrom; Hjarlmasson.
Last 2 years?
Adam Larsson. Not on team last year.
1st comp
top 10 HSCA D
#1 EVGA D
#12 PKGA D
top 40 EVA/60
Adam Larsson is one of 14 Dmen to be top 40 in EVGA and PKAG
Brandon Davidson missed 31gm last year
2nd comp
top 30 HSCA D
top 30 EVGA D
#5 PKGA D.
With his nasty hard shot.
He was given a chance at the end of his playing season on the PP.
he had the #1 PPG/60 rate.
Hopefully he gets a PP push.
Oscar KLefbom
missed 51gm last year from 2 extensive skin removalgraphting sugeries for staph infection.
1st comp
top 60 HSCA D
top 50 SA/60
Top 10 PKGA D
top 30 EVA/60
so at this point it is important to know that you need 3+ top HSCA D to win cup.
Because of the injuries to our best HSCA D.
most of our defence was asked to play above there comp ability.
resulting in truely awful HSCA D.
Most common Pairing :
Sekera- Fayne
Sekera - Nurse
Gryba - Davidson
Schultz - nurse
Fayne - Klefbom
Schultz - Klefbom
Reinhardt - gryba
we ended up with
Fayne and Sekera being 1st comp Bottom 60 HSCA D
Schultz - Gryba 2nd/3rd comp Bottom 20 HSCA D
Reinhart and Nurse 2nd/3rd comp bpttpm 10 HSCA D.
they yielded the 2nd highest HSCA shot rates in the league.
Behind Calgary and 4 bottom 20 HSCAD.
Giordano
Hamilton
Russell
Engeland
Provorov is an offensive D that often abandons the criticalHSCA area.
who often fails to quick read and pass the puck up to forwards.
that does not cut it in the new NHL.
Speed, Speed, Speed.
the last thing you want from your d is them skating the puck up and letting the opposition set-up for zone entry and HSCA defence.
I would not take provorov over Ethan bear.
who has faced the WHL best at even and succeeded.
he is a far superior Defensive D that transition passes quickly and is a good PP shot.
then to top it off>
you want the best 16 year old in Finnish league history.
who is in the top 4 17 yr in Finnish elite league history.
list of 17 yr WJC MVP
1978 Gretzky
1989 Bure
2016 Puljujarvi
and
PVP center (top 30 C comp)production:
EVP/60 Fwd rank.
#2 Mcdavid 2.69
#5 Crosby 2.53
#6 Schiefle 2.51
#16 Barkov 2.25
#20 Draisatl 2.20
He had the 3rd best PvP center production in 15-16
Rest of the top 10
#22 Stepan 2.19
#23 Kopitar 2.18
#34 Pavaelski 2.07
#55 Coturier 1.96
#55 Monohan 1.96
we will have 3 top 60 HSCA D in the top 4 of the team since we had 4 in the 05-06 cup run.
Pronger; Spacek; Smith; Staios.
Last year we got 30 gmf rom a top 60 HSCA and 51 from a top 30.
because we will likely have the top 4 depth.
Sekera will get to face 2nd comp or lower were his a career top 10 HSCA D.
Davidson - Larsson
Klefbom - Fayne
Sekera - Nurse
Reinhardt -Oesterle
Prospects:
Pyagin
Bear
C. Jones
Provorov would be 12th in our D depth.
kind of get an idea of how historically awful this trade i deal is.
A complete and utter lack of any understanding the cup caliber structure a team needs.
2 D prospects who's strengths are counter to cup caliber
for
the 5th best producing PvP center
and
one of 3 17 yr old WJC MVP's
Gretzky; Bure; Puljujarvi.
- May 1, 2011
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This is brutal for Edmonton.
They should see what they get out of their D this year, then reevaluate after this season. See if Talbot gives them another year of solid goaltending as a starter, then reevaluate after this year. He may be just about to turn 30, but he's got insanely low mileage for a 1987 model.
They need Puljujarvi after Hall was traded. Trading both Draisaitl and Puljujarvi makes their forward corps below average IMO.
They should see what they get out of their D this year, then reevaluate after this season. See if Talbot gives them another year of solid goaltending as a starter, then reevaluate after this year. He may be just about to turn 30, but he's got insanely low mileage for a 1987 model.
They need Puljujarvi after Hall was traded. Trading both Draisaitl and Puljujarvi makes their forward corps below average IMO.
- May 1, 2011
- 133,776
- 63,688
You trade away both Draisaitl and Puljujarvi and get Provorov, the D becomes pretty strong.
But then you badly deplete the forward corps.
Their forwards become horrific if they deal both of these guys. They improved the D with Larsson, they softened the blow of losing Hall with Lucic and hopefully Puljujarvi if he's ready to contribute.
They're much better off standing pat and going to battle with what they have now. And no disrespect to Stolarz, but he's supposed to balance this deal out for Edmonton? Yikes.
But then you badly deplete the forward corps.
Their forwards become horrific if they deal both of these guys. They improved the D with Larsson, they softened the blow of losing Hall with Lucic and hopefully Puljujarvi if he's ready to contribute.
They're much better off standing pat and going to battle with what they have now. And no disrespect to Stolarz, but he's supposed to balance this deal out for Edmonton? Yikes.
Canada4Gold
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Didn't have to read it to know it was bad.
The sad part is this doesn't even sniff the top 10 of bad HFboarduser proposals
The sad part is this doesn't even sniff the top 10 of bad HFboarduser proposals
oilerbear
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17 year old WJC MVP's
gretzky
Bure
Puljujarvi
the only other 3 player list that interested me last year was.
top even age NHLE since 05-06
Crosby 82 EVP
Mcdcvid 77EVP
PLD 66 EVP
the next best after these 3 was Stamkos at 55 EVP
My list went
Puljujarvi SM-ligga Playoffs .900 PPG
Laine SM-ligga Playoffs .833 PPG
Mathews
PLD
Sergachev
Keller
Tkachuk
thou if a team needed a center you were going to take Mathews over PLD.
winger the choice was between Puljujarvi and Laine.
watch video of puljujarvi's WJC;
and
SM-Ligga season.
Starat327
Top .01% OnlyHands
Flyers aren't adding to Simmonds to get Eberle. It'd be the other way around. And even then, not interested.
I think most rankings have Pulju ahead of Provorov. (to my mind it's close).
When you more than double the value of the other party in your deal, you take it and fix the positional issue later. I know it's damn hard to get a top D prospect or a promising young D, but it's made a heck of a lot easier when you've got this much extra value coming your way.
I think the Difference between Pulju and Prov is close depending on what you need.
But Drai is the best piece in this deal.
This poster just creates awful trade threads to get a rise out of people, or he's lost all touch on reality.
I've watched video of Pulju's season and WJC, I think Pulju had the better WJC (MVP of tourney). Think Laine was notably better in the SM-Liiga and think he'll take the NHL by storm.
snipes
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Even if Provorov is valued slightly higher because D>W, it's still terrible. They're probably equal prospects in terms of both being among the elite tier of prospects. Besides, our needs aren't being considered, we need right handed shooters up front and on D. Not lefties. Best interpretation:
Pulju<Provorov
Drai>>>>Stolarz
Brutal for Oilers. Drai is a big bodied Centre who just put up over 50 points for a terrible team. Centre and D have roughly similar value, so it's more like:
Drai > Provorov
Pulju >>> Stolarz
phlocky
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Sorry, but you are wrong. As much as I LOVE Provo and know that we have to fix our defense first, we take this deal and run.
Provo is a rare and special kind of dman but hasn't proven anything yet in the NHL. He's arguably equal to Drai at this point (Leon has proven himself at the NHL level but Provo is as close to a "can't miss" as you can get) but trading a goalie PROSPECT for what is basically can't miss winger makes this deal a no brainer for us. We have better goalie prospects than Stoltz in the system and would do this deal in a heartbeat. With Drai and Put, we can deal others to get someone like Shatty or another who, while maybe, and that's a BIG maybe, not as good as Provo at his peak, we'd be a better rounded team and much tougher to play against.
For the Oilers, while only one of those two may be equal to Provo, we aren't trading him for equal value. We'd need severe over payment to trade him and this is the type of deal that we don't couldn't pass up. I know it makes no sense for you guys to over pay like this bit it IS what it would take to pry Provo away from us.
Flyers would do it for that package, Oilers wouldn't. Oilers would do one of them for Provo alone but Flyers wouldn't. Thus, no deal is to be made here
phlocky
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Lol, r u kidding??? Simmonds >>> Ebs and you have PHILLY adding in the deal??? I'll stop there before I get another infraction
snipes
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The counter he made is about as bad as the OP.
You've already given a solid analysis of the OP. It's terrible for EDM all around, both sides and neutral observers have said the same thing, awful proposal. I'm a huge Provorov fan too.
phlocky
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Your 3rd sentence completely discredited you. You OBVIOUSLY have no clue who Provo is and what he's done.
snipes
How cold? I’m ice cold.
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I've watched him a fair amount this year in the WHL. He was the best Dman I've seen in the Dub in the last few years. Clearly in his own tier.
I would still have Drai > Provorov until I see how he handles NHL competition though.
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