Player Discussion Leo Carlsson
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That's the assumption, that he won't be able to handle the workload. And yes, I understand that historical that would be the case. By doing this you're not even letting him try. They appear to be coddling him. What's weirder is that they don't appear interested in doing it for other rookies. There is an argument that Leo would be more prepared for the NHL than Minty but you don't see them treating Minty with kid gloves. I'm not a trainer or health expert but I feel like fatigue is manageable from the perspective of when it arises. To pre-plan for it seems excessive. Also as the panel mentions, what message does it send to the rest of the team. That Leo is more important then anyone else? That he's different?
TopShelfWaterBottle
Registered
- Mar 16, 2014
- 3,454
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Where was this load management mindset with mctsvish last season? That dude didn’t have a day off in like two seasons. Or was he the example straw that broke the camels back?
Lord Flashheart
Squadron Commander
Too much outrage over an unorthodox strength and conditioning program.
Sure it sucks he's not playing every game, and I'd like to see him play every game, but nothing will happen if he doesn't play every game for the first two months or first half of the season.
Sure it sucks he's not playing every game, and I'd like to see him play every game, but nothing will happen if he doesn't play every game for the first two months or first half of the season.
Dirk316
Registered User
Sounds like this could be coming from the player and agent
This. Especially when the player and his agent are in on the plan. People on the prospect thread are acting like the sky is falling and Leo is not going to want to sign long term because of this.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
You'll live.
Anyway, what is the downside of hitting the rookie wall supposed to be? Is there some long term harm from hitting the wall that we're supposed to infer? I understand what they're trying to do but I'm having trouble seeing the necessity of it.
It seems likely that McTavish was evidence for Verbeek that he needed to do something differently to help certain players adapt. McTavish faded noticeably over the latter half of the season.
Why aren't they doing the same thing with Mintyukov? Because Mintyukov is a different player, with a different history, different strengths, etc. And it's possible they WILL give him some rest as the season moves on. But this is a bespoke plan for Carlsson based on his attributes.
As for the thought that players are going to grumble and complain that their teammate is getting special treatment, I would hope that 1. Our players are more mature than that and 2. It's been explained to them why this is happening and why management feels it's best for the team on the ice.
At the end of the day, it's a calculation - is the benefit Verbeek sees for the organization from Carlsson being on this program greater than the detriment from having him out of the lineup and possibly alienating the rest of the team? I hope the latter is mitigated by good leadership and communication within the organization (it's been lacking externally, that's for sure). And the former isn't relevant this season; the Ducks aren't realistically competing for anything.
It's a good question, but I can't see any upside to the rookie wall, either. If they think he'll be more valuable in fewer games because his per-game contributions will increase with this plan, then that would be part of it. Or if they think the risk of injury is less. Or if they think they can prepare him better for future years by getting him additional strength training now that wouldn't be available if he were playing every other day.
The way they're framing this is not that they have a shiny new toy that they only take out of the package to play with on special occasions. It's more that they have an incredibly valuable piece of ore that they're carefully trying to refine so that it can be put to its greatest use, both now and in the future.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Sure, we can invent reasons, but that's what we're doing. I'd like to hear them say it so I can at least evaluate it. If it's just strength and development per se, I'd wonder whether Leo had specific deficiencies that you don't typically see in a healthy 18 year old who's already been playing (and at times dominating) adult men. So I don't think it's that, but who knows!
That's your framing, not theirs. They're not framing it at all, that I've seen. Only that they intend to manage his time early on to avoid the wall. We're supplying the framing here on the board. Unless there's something beyond the tweets and the brief panel conversation that's been posted already.
darkwingduck
Registered User
I can't say I know the nuance of whether this development plan will work or not, but it is funny how there's like 2+ posts on the main boards for why 1st overall picks may have busted and many say it's because they were rushed too soon. (Slaf, Laf, etc.)
I would love more direct communication from them, but that's the impression that I've gotten from the few tidbits we've gotten.
For me, the vital questions have been answered. We know that this was approved by Leo and his agent, so there are no contract shenanigans going on. That's the biggest one. The other one is self evident - that this is being done for the good of the player and the organization. The concept seems reasonable and positive to me, even if the dots haven't been completely connected. I'd love it if they explicitly gave us the plan and the reasons for it, but this doesn't seem like a crazy or harmful idea, even if it's unprecedented.
I doubt we're ever going to get as much detail as we want.
CrazyDuck4u
Registered User
- Oct 14, 2006
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This is not fair to the other rookies. You have Lacombe and Minty playing 20+ minutes a night.. And you shelter Carlsson? No fk that.. Something else is going on..
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
I understand what you mean, and I'm not saying this is definitely bad or anything, I'd just like them to articulate why the rookie wall is such a big deal. Have they quantified it? Have they found players who've avoided it and compared their careers to others who haven't? That'd be hard, but potential very useful (and interesting). Like, what if the rookie wall is good?? Without more, my baseline assumption here is just that it's notional that this is a better way, and where that sort of thinking prevails there's all kinds of room for projection.
Just to nitpick, I don't think it's established that this is being done for the good of the player, it's just that we can infer it from the fact that everyone's on board.
Do you think Mintyukov and LaCombe feel that it's not fair? You think they'd rather sit games out?
Carlsson is being treated differently, that's obvious. But I'm not sure who in the organization would feel that they're being treated unfairly.
2faded
Registered User
Yes and I don't really buy the reasons that we've come up with. Or at least I don't think they're so big of a deal that they need to do this. Like this has been some sort of ongoing problem that nobody in the league has ever identified and now the Ducks have cracked the code and solved the issue.
This seems more like they are trying something new, something experimental, and they're experimenting with our franchise 1C #2 overall pick and making the team worse in the process. Seems like a risk they don't need to take. Although some on this board will frame this as they are taking less risk with this approach (maybe true, we'll find out). I just don't know if that's true.
I don't tend to be a skeptic in these matters, but I also don't think it's naive to assume that the organization has the best interest of the player in mind, if only because what's in the best interest of the player, performance-wise, lines up very closely with the best interests of the organization. The only issue I'd be concerned with there is the contract, and the agent and player being on board mitigate that concern.
Like you, I would love more communication on this. But I'm pretty sure we're not going to get much, and, even if we are, I can't imagine we're ever going to be given measurables that will help us determine if this actually worked or not. (And how do we even define "worked"?) I feel like I've got enough, if barely, to support the plan.
2faded
Registered User
The fact that Leo and his agent are on board makes me think he wont be missing that many games. There's no way the player, being as competitive as they are, would be okay missing 30-40 games.
And there's no way the agent, with possible bonuses tied to gp/calder/etc., would be okay with that amount of games missed either.
But, I thought it was silly and there was no way they would be resting Leo 3 games into his season and that happened, so what the hell do I know.
And there's no way the agent, with possible bonuses tied to gp/calder/etc., would be okay with that amount of games missed either.
But, I thought it was silly and there was no way they would be resting Leo 3 games into his season and that happened, so what the hell do I know.
LaCombe is 22 years old. He’s not in the same boat as a rookie. Similar with Mintyukov, he’s going on 20 and was playing these type of minutes in junior.
It's really a shame last night, Fantilli scores a go ahead goal, and I'm sure Leo looking from the press box is saying to himself wish he was in this game. Frank the Tank nullified Fantilli's hot game, thank the gods, but Leo should have played last night. Zegras was benched from having his worst game after having one of his best games. Terry has been a non factor most of the season, best game he had Terry.....yup when Leo was in the line up.
How good is Leo going to be? I think he will have combined aspects between Malkin and Kopitar. Which could make him the best all around player in his draft. Really excited, and if Verbeek feels this is the path to get him there, so be it. I just felt he should have played last night and take the night off against Boston tomorrow, if the plan is 2 games a week,
How good is Leo going to be? I think he will have combined aspects between Malkin and Kopitar. Which could make him the best all around player in his draft. Really excited, and if Verbeek feels this is the path to get him there, so be it. I just felt he should have played last night and take the night off against Boston tomorrow, if the plan is 2 games a week,
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Carlsson's situation is different than Mac's and Minchy's.
Last year was Mac's D+2 season. He had a 9-game call up in his D+1 season. This year is Minchy's D+2 season and he's a defensemen who has been playing top pairing minutes for the past two seasons in the CHL, which is 20 or more minutes a game. Minchy has played a minimum of 67 games for the past two seasons. (LaCombe is in his D+5 season, after four years in college building up his physique.)
Mac and Minchy, not to be confused with Mork & Mindy, had an extra year of development as well as be accustomed to playing the NA style of game in the CHL.
This year is Carlsson's D+1 season, which is a year behind in physical development compared to Mac and Minchy. Carlsson was playing wing for the past two seasons and not on the top line. Now we're asking him to play as a top line center, where he's averaging 20 minutes in his first two games.
At this year's Dev camp, the org was doing a lot of testing. It's possible they noticed that Carlsson is behind others based upon their own metrics. This thought of limiting Carlsson to two games per week is akin to the NCAA schedule, a program that does work in strength training and body building. And then there is the injury that occurred later in pre-season. Carlsson might have been overworked to where muscle fatigue set in, he lost his balance/footing, and crashed into the boards hard enough to lose feeling in his legs.
Carlsson's and his agent(s) are probably happy that his ELC will start this year, as oppose to have it slide a year. That means Carlsson will potentially make more money a year earlier. And with Carlsson potentially getting stronger and filling out in the next two months, then his agents and PV expect much bigger productions in the 2024-25 season. If Carlsson does produce big in 2024-25 as well as 2025-26, then Carlsson will be in for a much bigger pay raise and possible long term deal.
Just my opinion, but I think the load mgmt idea is a compromise. Verbeek wants to jump start his reset rebuild and this is another development season. PV wants Carlsson on NA ice than SHL ice, but knows he's not physically ready yet; which is why the org will re-evaluate Carlsson at the two month mark. He gets to see Carlsson on NA ice and against NHL competition this year than sending him back to the SHL or against lower competition in the AHL. This part-time 1C situation is to get Carlsson ready for a full season next year. When drafting Carlsson, we were drafting who Carlsson is gonna be in the future than seeing a mostly finished product like a Fantilli. We seen the preview and the future is so bright with Carlsson! Essentially, this is being done for the good of the org, namely Verbeek.
The part-time 1C situation does put a strain on the org. ::: cue Stevie Wonder "Part-time Lover" ::: I feel bad for Cronin and teammates who fill the top line role when Carlsson isn't playing, for a minimum of two months. PV is asking a lot out of Cronin to try to win under this condition at the NHL level.
Last year was Mac's D+2 season. He had a 9-game call up in his D+1 season. This year is Minchy's D+2 season and he's a defensemen who has been playing top pairing minutes for the past two seasons in the CHL, which is 20 or more minutes a game. Minchy has played a minimum of 67 games for the past two seasons. (LaCombe is in his D+5 season, after four years in college building up his physique.)
Mac and Minchy, not to be confused with Mork & Mindy, had an extra year of development as well as be accustomed to playing the NA style of game in the CHL.
This year is Carlsson's D+1 season, which is a year behind in physical development compared to Mac and Minchy. Carlsson was playing wing for the past two seasons and not on the top line. Now we're asking him to play as a top line center, where he's averaging 20 minutes in his first two games.
At this year's Dev camp, the org was doing a lot of testing. It's possible they noticed that Carlsson is behind others based upon their own metrics. This thought of limiting Carlsson to two games per week is akin to the NCAA schedule, a program that does work in strength training and body building. And then there is the injury that occurred later in pre-season. Carlsson might have been overworked to where muscle fatigue set in, he lost his balance/footing, and crashed into the boards hard enough to lose feeling in his legs.
Carlsson's and his agent(s) are probably happy that his ELC will start this year, as oppose to have it slide a year. That means Carlsson will potentially make more money a year earlier. And with Carlsson potentially getting stronger and filling out in the next two months, then his agents and PV expect much bigger productions in the 2024-25 season. If Carlsson does produce big in 2024-25 as well as 2025-26, then Carlsson will be in for a much bigger pay raise and possible long term deal.
Just my opinion, but I think the load mgmt idea is a compromise. Verbeek wants to jump start his reset rebuild and this is another development season. PV wants Carlsson on NA ice than SHL ice, but knows he's not physically ready yet; which is why the org will re-evaluate Carlsson at the two month mark. He gets to see Carlsson on NA ice and against NHL competition this year than sending him back to the SHL or against lower competition in the AHL. This part-time 1C situation is to get Carlsson ready for a full season next year. When drafting Carlsson, we were drafting who Carlsson is gonna be in the future than seeing a mostly finished product like a Fantilli. We seen the preview and the future is so bright with Carlsson! Essentially, this is being done for the good of the org, namely Verbeek.
The part-time 1C situation does put a strain on the org. ::: cue Stevie Wonder "Part-time Lover" ::: I feel bad for Cronin and teammates who fill the top line role when Carlsson isn't playing, for a minimum of two months. PV is asking a lot out of Cronin to try to win under this condition at the NHL level.
Jackson Lacombe is like 4 years older than Carlsson. The difference in physical maturity between most 18 yo and 22 yo men is fairly pronounced. Lacombe also had the benefit of playing four seasons of NCAA hockey where he had the benefit of playing half of a full time NHL schedule and getting lots of strength training time in. Lacombe and Carlsson are in completely different situations despite being rookies.
70sSanO
Registered User
At this stage of the season sitting Carlsson shines a bright light on how dysfunctional our top line seems to be without him.
It is actually beyond remarkable that inserting an 18yo rookie, with few games under his belt, makes a line it dangerous, but removing him turns it to crap.
Mgmt needs to figure out our current top 6; hopefully it will help when Killorn is back.
John
It is actually beyond remarkable that inserting an 18yo rookie, with few games under his belt, makes a line it dangerous, but removing him turns it to crap.
Mgmt needs to figure out our current top 6; hopefully it will help when Killorn is back.
John
The biggest thing I'm annoyed with on the main prospect boards is that there's more talk about Carlsson missing the game than Minty getting another assist and playing yet another solid game. Could you imagine the hype if he was on a big market team?
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I think the model PV is doing is the NCAA model. Play two games close together and then four to five days off to work out and rest. It's not dependent on how weak or strong the opponent is.
Carlsson played against the Stars (Oct 19th) and Yotes (Oct 21). Missing the Columbus game makes sense if following the NCAA model. The next two games Carlsson will be playing in will be against the Bruins and Flyers. He won't play for a week between Oct 29th to Nov 4th. Afterwards, his next two games will be at home against VGK and Pitt.
Welp, that's my guess.
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