Verbeek loooooves sports science. That's cool, I wish we were privy to the data.
Cronin does not seem as enthusiastic, haha
Cronin does not seem as enthusiastic, haha
Player Discussion Leo Carlsson
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The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Carlsson, agent on board with Ducks' plan to have rookie sit out games | NHL.com
No. 2 pick in 2023 NHL Draft says he believes in Anaheim's progressive strength, development programwww.nhl.com
I think this is part (or maybe most) of what irks me about this. Another "who gives a shit" year.
Quack Shot
Registered User
Great article, Agent seems to love the plan and everyone has bought in.Carlsson, agent on board with Ducks' plan to have rookie sit out games | NHL.com
No. 2 pick in 2023 NHL Draft says he believes in Anaheim's progressive strength, development program
Goose of Reason
El Zilcho
- May 1, 2013
- 9,881
- 9,720
Yeah thats what I don't like about it. We're almost .500 playing through a very tough schedule and we look better in every regard compared to past seasons except for scoring goals. And we're sitting a guy that's playing like a legit 1C (at 18! He's unbelievable!) with 3 points in 3 games including 2 goals. It sucks when the team makes big strides and they're sitting a guy that's good at the exact thing they're struggling with, who isn't struggling with the pace at all.
I'm just so sick of losing, and I hate not putting our best lineup on the ice every night.
Been calling this from the beginning. They are basically giving him the workload he would have if he was in the SHL, but against better competition.
His agent throwing shots lol.
I don't agree with the idea that if you arent trying to win the cup then it's a "who gives a shit" year. There is a difference between tanking and being focused on the future. The team is improving so much compared to last year. It's a building year, building towards the future, and Carlsson's development is a huge part of that.
2faded
Registered User
I hope they're working on his shot on all these off days. If he can learn to shoot and score off his rushes he will be a 40 goal scorer. Right now he just passes back and drives the middle without the puck every time.
Shooting will also open up better options for passing when they have to respect his shot. The good thing is he's aware and wants to work on his shot.
Shooting will also open up better options for passing when they have to respect his shot. The good thing is he's aware and wants to work on his shot.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Yes, I understand all those trite things. But it's not win the cup or nothing and I haven't said that, it's the indifference to what happens in the W/L column this year. That's clearly how Leo's agent is framing it, he makes two different comments to that effect. I don't know if that's how PV views it--I imagine he tells himself he's taking the long view. I think it's clear that Cronin has to remind himself of that as well. It's a subtext that bugs me.
The idea that this will be better for Leo's development is essentially unfalsifiable so it doesn't really matter what we all say about it.
For me the issue is not trying to be the best team you can. Fans are asked to pay for not the best team possible? I feel a lot of fans will have issues with that. It might be the best decision for the player. It hasn't really been done before so there isn't proof it works. Lots of proof of young 18 year old top picks doing well. Maybe they struggle year 1 but come up year 2 very strong. We won't know until year 2 for Leo.
I'm dying at "little-boy body."
Also interesting that Terry admits it's frustrating to not get to play with him.
Also interesting that Terry admits it's frustrating to not get to play with him.
His play in the third where he got that burst of speed up the middle but missed the mark on the Terry pass are what is going to separate him from the rest when he gets that timing down at this level. He might have missed the pass, but you could see on that play it’s like he has his own orbit the way he’s able to draw the defenders in leaving his teammates open.
FiveTacos
Registered User
They said they'd evaluate again at the end of November. If he's good to go full time by then, and the Ducks are in good shape record wise, he might still end up closer to 70 games than 60. And if by some miracle we're actually in a playoff push, having him be trending up instead of hitting a rookie wall could benefit us in the W-L column overall. So I don't see it as not trying to win, if it works it might actually pay dividends THIS year.
And I'll always choose a strong finish over a hot start.
And I'll always choose a strong finish over a hot start.
Totally agree, but thats the agent. He probably doesnt care lol. I'm not indifferent. I want to win, but it isn't my #1 priority. The kids progressing and preforming is.
I'm sorry, I just call BS on this. Teams balance competitiveness and keeping the window open as long as possible all the time. You can still be trying to win while also caring about the future. I get this is not an apples to apples comparison, but by this logic if team's dont trade their 1st rounder at the deadline then they are not trying to be the best team they can.
I think it's worth noting that quote is from the agent (edit: I see you acknowledge that in a later comment), not anyone in the Ducks organization. And the paragraph following is the author.
Based on what Verbeek has been reported as saying, he wants Carlsson stronger for the second half of the season. The implication is that he thinks Carlsson can provide more value THIS season because of this plan. This isn't necessarily all about future seasons.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Maybe. It's all a maybe. I'll try to find some Cronin zen and have faith that this will work out for me as a fan.
I feel like that's a bit of a jump of logic. You're comparing using future assets to win now vs using current assets to win now. That's not the same. At the end of the day you are not convincing me that benching a guy that makes the team better is about winning now. Obviously the team is trying to win every game but benching Leo puts a handicap on your team. You don't know when you might encounter injuries during the season and every point counts. You're risking the teams ability to generate standings points. The priority is clearly different.
Assets are assets. 1st rounder are assets that can be used to win right now in a trade. How is not trading them any different than letting a prospect cook in the AHL longer, or sitting Carlsson?
It’s still making the future a priority at the expense of “winning now”.
I'm an accountant so I'm going to do the math in a way that makes sense to me. Verbeek wants him to be a horse in the second half. Let's say that Carlsson is worth 1 point of value every game right now, whatever 1 point means to you - scoring, standings, or just an arbitrary hockey value indicator. If Carlsson plays 80 games at 1 point of value every game, he'd be worth 80 points for the whole season.
However, based on the analysis they've done, both of Carlsson as a player and rookie performance in general, they think playing him everyday will cause his value to decrease throughout the season. So in January, he'll be worth .9 points per game. February .8 points, March .7, April .6. So if Carlsson played 80 games, he wouldn't be worth 80 points. He'd be worth roughly 70 points.
But the Ducks think sitting him out will allow him to maintain his value better throughout the season, and maybe even increase it. If we're conservative and assume that this rest plan allows for even just a maintenance of his 1-point per game value, sitting him for 10 games doesn't decrease his value to the team. It keeps it at 70 points, the same as if they played him every night.
I'm not trying to prove that this is how they've calculated it or even that this is their exact thinking, so don't get caught up in the exact numbers. I'm just trying to posit a theory. But Verbeek has specifically mentioned the second half of THIS season. They've also talked about this being the plan for two months, not necessarily the whole year. Clearly they're not punting on the season entirely. They want Carlsson to provide as much value as possible for later games this season, and it's possible he can provide as much total value to the team under this plan as he would have by playing every game.
70sSanO
Registered User
I think load mgmt might look better in March than October.
If Verbeek is going to make Carlsson the horse in the second half, it might make for a better overall season.
If by some miracle we squeeze into the playoffs, the last thing we want is to watch Leo’s production taper off.
John
If Verbeek is going to make Carlsson the horse in the second half, it might make for a better overall season.
If by some miracle we squeeze into the playoffs, the last thing we want is to watch Leo’s production taper off.
John
CrazyDuck4u
Registered User
- Oct 14, 2006
- 7,568
- 4,706
Hes going to be the Swedish Malkin.. Very similar playing styles. Im all for it.. But I just cant agree with this load management thing.. I say let the player play.
Terry with Leo - 4 points (2G, 2A) in 2 games
Terry without Leo - 1 point (1A) in 5 games
I would be also.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
It has to for it to make sense as anything other than a win-later strategy.
I'm also not seeing an obvious standings benefit of a second-half horse over a first-half one, since the mystical rookie wall apparently comes around halfway through. And I'm ALSO not convinced that PV is doing this for Leo to be a second-half horse this year, or if we're just reading that in to PV not wanting Leo to fade down the stretch. I admit I might have missed or forgotten something PV has said.
FYI just for context.
Leo has 3 points in 3 games played.
Bedard has 4 points in 7 games played.
Fantilli has 4 points in 7 games played.
Leo has 3 points in 3 games played.
Bedard has 4 points in 7 games played.
Fantilli has 4 points in 7 games played.
Verbeek has been quoted as saying he wants Carlsson to be "a horse in the second half." That's not speculation or inference.
It's referenced a couple times here, both indirectly and in links to pieces where he's quoted: Ducks Have Strange Plan For No. 2 Overall Pick Leo Carlsson
Here's the quote from the Stephens piece:
70sSanO
Registered User
One more point about load mgmt, Leo lead all forwards in TOI with 22:37 against Boston.
I haven’t checked the other rookies around the league, but I’m willing to bet they are playing fewer minutes.
The Ducks aren’t coddling Carlsson when he is playing. He was the best Duck on the ice for that comeback win.
John
I haven’t checked the other rookies around the league, but I’m willing to bet they are playing fewer minutes.
The Ducks aren’t coddling Carlsson when he is playing. He was the best Duck on the ice for that comeback win.
John
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Thanks.
Carlsson is second amongst rookies in TOI/G (behind Faber, a D). Minty is 5th and LaCombe 7th.
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