Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign F Auston Matthews to extension (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[Hellcat]

You should be able to separate player abilities and team success.

We've seen cup winners overcome awful contracts and players become severely overvalued as a result of team success

To your point .... the cup winning Red Wings teams had stacked teams for years until Yzerman decided to go god mode. I remember similar talk about those players being chokers and over paid until they won the cup. When you have the talent like those teams did and the talent like the Leafs do, you never count them out.

I've never seen a person who is driven, not learn from negative events, it tends to make them more driven and smarter next time. They only need to win the cup one time, until then the belly aching will continue. Every year is a fresh start.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I'm with you they should be paid fair market value, which I think with 2 years left for Marner, you can argue that he is paid fair market value for his contributions. same with Matty, Nylander is under market value compared to his last two years production.

Where I was going with my questions is, you were saying their playoff record, which is piss poor, supports the argument that the star players are over paid, I was asking , if they win the cup will their contracts become reasonable? Is the dividing line of overpaid/paid appropriately = poor playoffs / win the cup?

Agreed upon truth: Our star players are paid considerably more than other teams comparables with similar raw numbers.

My argument: There's a culture problem in our core making them greedier than their comparables and/or we had a rookie gm that overpaid because he didn't know what he was doing.

The Dekes Crew argument: Our players are just way more valuable than their raw numbers indicate so it makes sense they are paid significantly more than their raw number comparables.

I'd say this. It's no longer a small sample size. If the leafs had been historically successful the past 7 playoffs with multiple cups, wouldn't that indicate that Dekes was correct in his assessment? And if the team was decent in the playoffs (got the 2nd round numerous times and maybe a couple 3rd and 4th rounds) then me and Dekes would both have cases to make.

But what's happened is a core that is historically bad in the playoffs. Like, at a level that is setting records.

To which I say, the proof is in the pudding. My assessment has been more accurate than the Dekes crew.

 

[Stephen]

The risk is equal to both parties. It's not a lever used to 'get players to stay'.

Stutzle didn't stay because he was given some advantage during negotiations, and in the end it was his risk that was realized. Ottawa got him to stay and got the better deal at the players expense.

I think it depends on who you are as a franchise. With Ottawa I think you need to put in more elbow grease and incentivize a player to commit. People may not agree with this statement since Ottawa is signing guys at 8 years while we get 4-6, but the flip side is there’s a comfortability in Toronto that Rielly, Matthews will see the UFA light at the end of the tunnel and still want to stay here. If you get close to free agency in Ottawa, maybe you don’t stay.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You should be able to separate player abilities and team success.

We've seen cup winners overcome awful contracts and players become severely overvalued as a result of team success

There are only FOUR players that have been here for all 7 humiliating playoff runs.

Just 4.

I can't remember the precise numbers, but it was something like THIRTY different forwards we've surrounded those 4 players with.. TWENTY different D-men, and like 5 different goalies.

They are still 1-8 in playoff series and 1-11 in series clinching games.

So at some point, YES, I will say that we can no longer separate team success from those 4 core players.

They are overpaid in relation to direct raw number comparables at time of signing. THAT is the problem. And the proof is in the pudding.

 

[Gallagbi]

There are only FOUR players that have been here for all 7 humiliating playoff runs.

Just 4.

I can't remember the precise numbers, but it was something like THIRTY different forwards we've surrounded those 4 players with.. TWENTY different D-men, and like 5 different goalies.

They are still 1-8 in playoff series and 1-11 in series clinching games.

So at some point, YES, I will say that we can no longer separate team success from those 4 core players.

They are overpaid in relation to direct raw number comparables at time of signing. THAT is the problem. And the proof is in the pudding.

No point continuing when this rant is our starting point. Have a good one

 

[Gallagbi]

To your point .... the cup winning Red Wings teams had stacked teams for years until Yzerman decided to go god mode. I remember similar talk about those players being chokers and over paid until they won the cup. When you have the talent like those teams did and the talent like the Leafs do, you never count them out.

I've never seen a person who is driven, not learn from negative events, it tends to make them more driven and smarter next time. They only need to win the cup one time, until then the belly aching will continue. Every year is a fresh start.

I dont think we're destined to overcome the current situation and failures, but my question is more who can contribute for success going forward and what needs to change.

Seems like a more interesting conversation than the rest of the garbage happening now that everything is awful, everyones overpaid and the coach is an idiot.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

There are only FOUR players that have been here for all 7 humiliating playoff runs.

Just 4.

I can't remember the precise numbers, but it was something like THIRTY different forwards we've surrounded those 4 players with.. TWENTY different D-men, and like 5 different goalies.

They are still 1-8 in playoff series and 1-11 in series clinching games.

So at some point, YES, I will say that we can no longer separate team success from those 4 core players.

They are overpaid in relation to direct raw number comparables at time of signing. THAT is the problem. And the proof is in the pudding.

7 humiliating playoff runs last year was a decent run, we finally won a series and got over the hump. Only the Habs series we should've absolutely won. Every other series we were the lower seed and in for an uphill battle no matter what. As frustrating as it was losing to the Bruins 2 years in a row, especially after the 2013 bs, they were the higher seed and better team in both series'.

I don't even know how you're even counting the Caps series as humiliating, Columbus best of 5 shouldn't count either. That play in round was pure mickey mouse COVID hockey.

 

[ShaneFalco]

There are only FOUR players that have been here for all 7 humiliating playoff runs.

Just 4.

I can't remember the precise numbers, but it was something like THIRTY different forwards we've surrounded those 4 players with.. TWENTY different D-men, and like 5 different goalies.

They are still 1-8 in playoff series and 1-11 in series clinching games.

So at some point, YES, I will say that we can no longer separate team success from those 4 core players.

They are overpaid in relation to direct raw number comparables at time of signing. THAT is the problem. And the proof is in the pudding.

Careful to some this is a pom-pom only zone

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Is that so?

What about the contract makes him open to wild speculation that would otherwise fall into the category of defamation?

It can't be the length of the contract, that's some of the stupidest logic possible.

It's not that he's a pro athlete, because we're not speculating about all 800 NHL players.

It has to be the value.

So, at what salary does one "subject yourself to speculation"?


Pray tell.

Everyone gets really touchy about this, and that's a part of the problem. Such a suggestion seems to amount to all a full blown character assault. This is why many suffer silently with addiction. Without that stigma we could address it as we do any other ongoing injury or ailment, quickly and more effectively.

This is not to suggest Matthews is, without any doubt, dealing with substance abuse issues. But he is human, fallible, and in a position that grants him all access and every excuse one would need to partake. He's the face of the biggest franchise in the NHL, is well regarded by the opposite sex, and hangs out with a celebrity who has a long history of drug abuse issues.

His overall play last year was baffling to me. I tried to think of anything that could be causing a guy who was once one of the strongest players on his skates in the league to end up on his ass constantly. To regularly fumble the puck with no pressure on him. To look as gassed as Phil Kessel after a short shift.

It looked like a concussion, but he hadn't had an injury to his head in ages. Then I'd see him talk in pressers and he looked exhausted, eye bags deeper than I'd ever seen them, pale, and generally unwell. That's when I started to quietly suspect what it might be. Now I've heard from someone who knew him intimately that he does, in fact, have more than a passing fondness for that lifestyle.

I'm not trying to pile on the guy or debase his character. It's simply a concern. I'm even ashamed to admit that it is in part why I was relieved at the shorter term on the contract. I hope if it's as I suspect that he gets it under control and that everyone understands that these things are even more common than we think in this league, and not be aghast and alarmed every time a guy needs to enter the player's assistance program. That would be a step in the right direction towards dealing with these things before they ever get to that point.

 

[Sypher04]

Everyone gets really touchy about this, and that's a part of the problem. Such a suggestion seems to amount to all a full blown character assault. This is why many suffer silently with addiction. Without that stigma we could address it as we do any other ongoing injury or ailment, quickly and more effectively.

This is not to suggest Matthews is, without any doubt, dealing with substance abuse issues. But he is human, fallible, and in a position that grants him all access and every excuse one would need to partake. He's the face of the biggest franchise in the NHL, is well regarded by the opposite sex, and hangs out with a celebrity who has a long history of drug abuse issues.

His overall play last year was baffling to me. I tried to think of anything that could be causing a guy who was once one of the strongest players on his skates in the league to end up on his ass constantly. To regularly fumble the puck with no pressure on him. To look as gassed as Phil Kessel after a short shift.

It looked like a concussion, but he hadn't had an injury to his head in ages. Then I'd see him talk in pressers and he looked exhausted, eye bags deeper than I'd ever seen them, pale, and generally unwell. That's when I started to quietly suspect what it might be. Now I've heard from someone who knew him intimately that he does, in fact, have more than a passing fondness for that lifestyle.

I'm not trying to pile on the guy or debase his character. It's simply a concern. I'm even ashamed to admit that it is in part why I was relieved at the shorter term on the contract. I hope if it's as I suspect that he gets it under control and that everyone understands that these things are even more common than we think in this league, and not be aghast and alarmed every time a guy needs to enter the player's assistance program. That would be a step in the right direction towards dealing with these things before they ever get to that point.

You’re throwing around baseless accusations about a player and substance issues, people should have an issue with that.

There are lots of reasons why his play could have not looked right at times year that have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with alcohol or drugs, none the least of which being injuries which we know for a fact he was dealing with (knee, back and wrist)

You’re also grossly overstating the problems his game suffered last year.

And even IF we were to take it at face value that you happen to know someone he dated (which I don’t), that doesn’t make their words even necessarily true. We all know people never make false claims about their exes.

It’s not a matter of stigma. It’s a matter of you associating problems with someone you’re in no position to actually know if any of it is actually true about. I’m not really sure how you think people are supposed to take it. It is, in fact, slanderous.

 

[ACC1224]

I dont think we're destined to overcome the current situation and failures, but my question is more who can contribute for success going forward and what needs to change.

Seems like a more interesting conversation than the rest of the garbage happening now that everything is awful, everyones overpaid and the coach is an idiot.

Amen to that

 

[TIGERCOOL]

It’s not a matter of stigma. It’s a matter of you associating problems with someone you’re in no position to actually know if any of it is actually true about. I’m not really sure how you think people are supposed to take it. It is, in fact, slanderous.

So would you consider it amoral and slanderous if I had come on here and shared that I spoke with someone who knew Matthews and was informed that his wrist probably needs surgery? Would that be slanderous? Even if you didn't believe me I doubt you'd get so worked up. That's stigma, friend.

 

[Racer88]

The same as the stars brought up in the original post from Boston and Edmonton, and most star players in the NHL.

Be that as it may our stars are amongst the very highest paid players in the league with 1 single round win in basically 6-7 years in the league

All failures, including us. 5 rounds in 5 years is still failing.

Should we strive to be the NYI? 6 rounds in the last 5 years, what great success.

Tampa was left out because he was specifically comparing Pastrnak and McDavid as these wonderful contracts and then saying because of our team's high salaries we've won nothing.

You can find teams failing and succeeding with big contracts, there is no perfect formula, it is why these arguments are so dumb.

I remember the talking point for a while was "No team can ever win with a 10+ million dollar player", can't use that anymore, need to come up with something new now.

No team can win with 4 players eating 50% of the cap. How about that one

 

[Racer88]

I dont think we're destined to overcome the current situation and failures, but my question is more who can contribute for success going forward and what needs to change.

Seems like a more interesting conversation than the rest of the garbage happening now that everything is awful, everyones overpaid and the coach is an idiot.

What needs to happen is we need a better coach, better goal tending in the playoffs and we need to rebalance the cap distribution to accomplish some of those things but so far this year it looks like the new GM is going to run it back for the 8th year

 

[notbias]

Be that as it may our stars are amongst the very highest paid players in the league with 1 single round win in basically 6-7 years in the league


No team can win with 4 players eating 50% of the cap. How about that one

No team has won with 4 players eating up 50% of the cap, it is insane to say no team can.

Why does anyone even get upset when we lose if you can't win with 50% of the cap going to 4 players?

Florida had 50% of their cap tied up in 4 players (and a cap penalty).

So you can at least make it to the finals it appears.

Bob, Barkov, Tkachuk, Ekblad, Buyouts
10 + 10 + 9.5 + 7.5 + 6.5 = 43.5

Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Rielly
11.6 + 11 + 10.9 + 7.5 = 41

They had "worse" cap allocation than we did and still made it to the finals and lost to a team playing with 10 million more than the cap allows.

 

[pcruz]

So would you consider it amoral and slanderous if I had come on here and shared that I spoke with someone who knew Matthews and was informed that his wrist probably needs surgery? Would that be slanderous? Even if you didn't believe me I doubt you'd get so worked up. That's stigma, friend.

You don't see a difference between stating that someone needs a medical procedure on an appendage and stating that someone has a substance abuse problem that has affected his or her life in a detrimental fashion?

 

[TIGERCOOL]

You don't see a difference between stating that someone needs a medical procedure on an appendage and stating that someone has a substance abuse problem that has affected his or her life in a detrimental fashion?

Addiction is a disease dude. Should be treated and referred to as such. The functional differences in the impacts of a disease that could potentially effect your play or sideline you for some time vs that of an injury, I suppose

How one arrives at that point is irrelevant to me.

 

[LeafEgo]

I think it depends on who you are as a franchise. With Ottawa I think you need to put in more elbow grease and incentivize a player to commit. People may not agree with this statement since Ottawa is signing guys at 8 years while we get 4-6, but the flip side is there’s a comfortability in Toronto that Rielly, Matthews will see the UFA light at the end of the tunnel and still want to stay here. If you get close to free agency in Ottawa, maybe you don’t stay.

Time will tell if they struggle to retain UFA talent, but in the meantime they have all their stars until their 29 - and only Chucky has a full NMC and only for three years. One by one their stars are signing very reasonable contracts for as long as they can without drama. It's a pretty steady ship.

Our mid-prime crisis-contracts are uncomfortable and costly.

 

[francis246]

8mAAV is too much for an elite two way Dman? He'd be the second best Dman, hey maybe even the best on the Leafs.

Why is Brady Tkachuk overrated?.

I know Will scored 5 more goals and had 4 more pts last year, and I know that Will is a bit smoother on the blades, but that's where his advantage ends. Given a choice I take Brady over Will anyday that ends in a "y."

Will made me a believer last year, he finally erased all doubt I had of his commitment to the game. BT did it his first year, I wasn't sure he was ever going to be an 80 point guy, but now I think 95 is within range as the Senators mature.

I know a couple of ex Senators quite well and they've both said that the kid is the real deal, they both say his skill set and discipline is better than his brothers. I trust their opinions, both as players and as real fans of the game

There is no denying Brady Tkachuks worth as a National leaguer.

Sanderson is not an elite 2 way dman. Let’s just stop right there. The guy has played 77 games. We know nothing about what he actually is. It’s a very small sample size.

 

[francis246]

Careful to some this is a pom-pom only zone

No one is saying you have to be happy about the team all the time. But some of you guys take the negativity to the extreme. You don’t really see a lot of studies that say too ouch positivity in life is a bad thing. But you do see a lot of negativity having effects on groups of people. I could never understand how you can be a fan and also have so much hatred for the team you supposedly love, it’s just really odd for ME personally to witness. I can’t comprehend it.

Additionally it’s never that serious, I want the leafs to win the cup one day and for Matty to lead us, but I’m not gonna lose my mind over contracts and nonsense i can’t control daily. But to each their own. There isn’t one set way to be a fan.

 

[Hellcat]

I dont think we're destined to overcome the current situation and failures, but my question is more who can contribute for success going forward and what needs to change.

Seems like a more interesting conversation than the rest of the garbage happening now that everything is awful, everyones overpaid and the coach is an idiot.

What does this team look like with Cooper or Cassidy behind the bench

There are only FOUR players that have been here for all 7 humiliating playoff runs.

Just 4.

I can't remember the precise numbers, but it was something like THIRTY different forwards we've surrounded those 4 players with.. TWENTY different D-men, and like 5 different goalies.

They are still 1-8 in playoff series and 1-11 in series clinching games.

So at some point, YES, I will say that we can no longer separate team success from those 4 core players.

They are overpaid in relation to direct raw number comparables at time of signing. THAT is the problem. And the proof is in the pudding.

Morgan, Matthews, JT, Nylander, Marner?

 

[Racer88]

No team has won with 4 players eating up 50% of the cap, it is insane to say no team can.

Why does anyone even get upset when we lose if you can't win with 50% of the cap going to 4 players?

Florida had 50% of their cap tied up in 4 players (and a cap penalty).

So you can at least make it to the finals it appears.

Bob, Barkov, Tkachuk, Ekblad, Buyouts
10 + 10 + 9.5 + 7.5 + 6.5 = 43.5

Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Rielly
11.6 + 11 + 10.9 + 7.5 = 41

They had "worse" cap allocation than we did and still made it to the finals and lost to a team playing with 10 million more than the cap allows.

I should have qualified my statement to be 50% on 4 similar forwards. Notice Florida type of 4 players

 

[Hellcat]

So would you consider it amoral and slanderous if I had come on here and shared that I spoke with someone who knew Matthews and was informed that his wrist probably needs surgery? Would that be slanderous? Even if you didn't believe me I doubt you'd get so worked up. That's stigma, friend.

I spoke to someone and they told me I was a handsome man.... was I surprised when I found out Mothers lie too ...

 

[ShaneFalco]

No one is saying you have to be happy about the team all the time. But some of you guys take the negativity to the extreme. You don’t really see a lot of studies that say too ouch positivity in life is a bad thing. But you do see a lot of negativity having effects on groups of people. I could never understand how you can be a fan and also have so much hatred for the team you supposedly love, it’s just really odd for ME personally to witness. I can’t comprehend it.

Additionally it’s never that serious, I want the leafs to win the cup one day and for Matty to lead us, but I’m not gonna lose my mind over contracts and nonsense i can’t control daily. But to each their own. There isn’t one set way to be a fan.

It's not hatred
It's not being miserable
It's not being overly negative ... for most
It's reality
Its also not being willfully blind to the short-comings
If people just sit back and never expressed frustration to how something has been run for decades - well good for you
I will happily eat crow if I'm wrong and this team does show some kind of heartbeat in the playoffs. TB was a a trickle only to be erased by the no show against Florida.

Fans don't have to like the teams direction
Fans don't have to like every Leaf player
Too many people here won't even entertain perceived negative views
Bottom line this team is a total failure over decades.

 

[ShaneFalco]

also although they didn't win anything either man give me the heart and grit of players like Clark, Tucker, Roberts , Markov etc etc and I'm at least happy if they go down, it was a war
These guys - pathetic performances when it matters most