Line Combos: Leafs roster [Before] & [After] and work in progress

[zeke]

Maybe he'll be much better this season, maybe not we'll see. Bogosian was solidly our #5 guy (or #4 is you're not a fan of Holl) and losing him will hurt.

Bogo was obviously nowhere near a #4 guy, or even "solidly the #5". He was used in the same even strength usage as his partner dermott on the bottom pair, and the same as everyone else who filled in on the bottom pair.

Rielly 20:17
Brodie 19:07

Muzzin 18:31
Holl 18:21

Bogosian 13:03
Dermott 12:46
(Liljegren 13:11)
(Sandin 12:52)

Just a co-equal 5/6 bottom pair dman for us last year.

He did have a consistent role on the PK, but even then only as the #4 guy.

Muzzin 2:33
Holl 2:32

Brodie 1:44
Bogosian 1:25
(Liljegren 1:54)

So Bogo's role on the PK will have to be replaced. Nice to see that Liljegren got a look on that 2nd PK unit when he played. He was also one of the top PK guys on the Marlies.

 

[darrylsittler27]

They’re one nasty bottom pairing defenceman away from it being okay though.

No, clearly not.

 

[darrylsittler27]

They’re one nasty bottom pairing defenceman away from it being okay though.

No , I'm suggesting we need a big guy for the top 4 who is far better than BOGO.

 

[Deas]

So losing Andersen, Hyman, Thornton, Barabanov, Boyd, Vesey and replacing them with Mrazek, Kase, Ritchie, Bunting, Kampf, and perhaps Robertson is a downgrade? The loss of Bogo on the 3rd pair and being replaced by either a UFA, Sandin, Liljegren, or Menell?

Some facts:

The Leafs record without Hyman was 8-3-2.

The Leafs record without Bogo was 8-1-2.

Note that the lone Bogo regulation loss and one of Hyman's regulation losses was the meaningless last game of the season when the standings had been decided, and players were being rested.

The Leafs record with any goalie other than Andersen was 22-6-4, which was a 124 point pace.

I think any talk of the Leafs regressing or losing ground on any team in their division at this point is....premature, and most likely false.

As a non-Leafs fan I agree with this. I think your roster strength is too often downplayed. Given how top heavy you are I think Dubas succeeds very well with the depth/complementary signings, and you'll be a contender for several years now. Roster strength hasn't been the issue.

 

[Dayjobdave]

It will be interesting to see how this years roster does.

One of the young d needs to fill the Bogo role (could happen - tough to do)
Mrazek needs to play as well as last years Freddie ( should happen)
Jack needs to keep it up (can happen but he was good last year)
Ritchie and Bunting need to balance out Hyman and Jumbo (tall order but possible)

on top of that no one can regress and our competition will be tougher.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Bogo was obviously nowhere near a #4 guy, or even "solidly the #5". He was used in the same even strength usage as his partner dermott on the bottom pair, and the same as everyone else who filled in on the bottom pair.

Rielly 20:17
Brodie 19:07

Muzzin 18:31
Holl 18:21

Bogosian 13:03
Dermott 12:46
(Liljegren 13:11)
(Sandin 12:52)

Just a co-equal 5/6 bottom pair dman for us last year.

He did have a consistent role on the PK, but even then only as the #4 guy.

Muzzin 2:33
Holl 2:32

Brodie 1:44
Bogosian 1:25
(Liljegren 1:54)

So Bogo's role on the PK will have to be replaced. Nice to see that Liljegren got a look on that 2nd PK unit when he played. He was also one of the top PK guys on the Marlies.

You're letting your spreadsheets get in the way of common sense. You were headed in the right direction by looking at ice time but you once again are making the mistake of putting too much stock in what happens in the regular season while ignoring the playoffs. Playoffs are where cups are won, in the playoffs, we had 5 Dmen who were never healthy scratches and Bogo was one of them, end of story. Sandin played in 5 PO games, Dermott 3 and Liljegren wasn't even in the picture.

It's OK to admit you're wrong, you should try it sometime.

As a non-Leafs fan I agree with this. I think your roster strength is too often downplayed. Given how top heavy you are I think Dubas succeeds very well with the depth/complementary signings, and you'll be a contender for several years now. Roster strength hasn't been the issue.

I agree. The problem is that the team is always less than the sum of it's parts in the playoffs and that's especially true in series deciding games where it's like we don't compete at all. I've been following pro sports for 50+ years and can't remember seeing anything like it.

It will be interesting to see how this years roster does.

One of the young d needs to fill the Bogo role (could happen - tough to do)
Mrazek needs to play as well as last years Freddie ( should happen)
Jack needs to keep it up (can happen but he was good last year)
Ritchie and Bunting need to balance out Hyman and Jumbo (tall order but possible)

on top of that no one can regress and our competition will be tougher.

Good summary. I would only add that this team needs to figure out a way of if not raising, then at least maintaining it's level of play when the stakes are raised. Our 0-7 record over the last 4 years in games where one win would win the series is not acceptable and the way we keep folding at crunch time is frankly, mind boggling.

 

[ottomaddox]

Bogo was obviously nowhere near a #4 guy, or even "solidly the #5". He was used in the same even strength usage as his partner dermott on the bottom pair, and the same as everyone else who filled in on the bottom pair.

Rielly 20:17
Brodie 19:07

Muzzin 18:31
Holl 18:21

Bogosian 13:03
Dermott 12:46
(Liljegren 13:11)
(Sandin 12:52)

Just a co-equal 5/6 bottom pair dman for us last year.

He did have a consistent role on the PK, but even then only as the #4 guy.

Muzzin 2:33
Holl 2:32

Brodie 1:44
Bogosian 1:25
(Liljegren 1:54)

So Bogo's role on the PK will have to be replaced. Nice to see that Liljegren got a look on that 2nd PK unit when he played. He was also one of the top PK guys on the Marlies.

So what is Liljegren at the end of the day? Average defenseman as his ceiling?

 

[4thline]

I've been trying to write a simple comparison about what we changed up front, but some much changes based on roles and how we set up the lines, and even which version of last years roster. ie. Are we replacing 1st line LW Hyman with Ritchie, or 3rd line RW Hyman with Kase. Based on

Thornton-Matthews-Marner
Gally/Vesey-Tavares-Nylander
Mikhyev-Kerfoot-Hyman
Engvall-Spezza-Simmonds

to
Ritchie-Matthews-Marner
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Kerfoot-Kampf-Kase
Mikheyev-Engvall-Spezza/Simmonds
OR
Ritchie-Matthews-Marner
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kerfoot-Spezza
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase


IMO we've had a baseline par/slight upgrade (mainly because the addition of Kampf covers some of the winger risk) but with potential for big upgrade if either Kase stays fully healthy or Bunting is more than a scrappy 15/15 thirdliner, potential for a huge upgrade if BOTH of those happen. I don't think there's much likelihood of Ritchie "getting it" and emerging as a true top line power forward, but that's there as well

 

[The Iceman]

Is Hakanpaa purely a bottom pairing guy? Could he have filled in in place of Holl? Can he skate, or is he just a big MF?

Purely a bottom pairing guy that will thump you and PK. A meaner version of BOGO.

 

[BlueForever75]

My guess is the following barring anymore deals:

Ritchie-Matthews-Nylander
Bunting-Tavares-Marner
Kase-Kerfott-Micheyev
Simmonds-Kampf-Spezza
Engvall,Brooks (depending on teams played Simmonds/Spezza given rest)

 

[Mess]

Updates so far as of Aug 3rd, 2021

Nick Ritchie LW replaces Zach Hyman LW
Nick Bunting LW replaces Nick Foligno LW
Ondrej Kase RW replaces Alex Galchenyuk LW/RW
David Kämpf C replaces Joe Thornton C
Kurtis Gabriel RW replaces Scott Sabourin RW
Brennan Menell D replaces Zach Bogosian D
Petr Mrazek G replaces Freddy Andersen G

 

[Gary Nylund]

I've been trying to write a simple comparison about what we changed up front, but some much changes based on roles and how we set up the lines, and even which version of last years roster. ie. Are we replacing 1st line LW Hyman with Ritchie, or 3rd line RW Hyman with Kase. Based on

Thornton-Matthews-Marner
Gally/Vesey-Tavares-Nylander
Mikhyev-Kerfoot-Hyman
Engvall-Spezza-Simmonds

to
Ritchie-Matthews-Marner
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Kerfoot-Kampf-Kase
Mikheyev-Engvall-Spezza/Simmonds
OR
Ritchie-Matthews-Marner
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kerfoot-Spezza
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase


IMO we've had a baseline par/slight upgrade (mainly because the addition of Kampf covers some of the winger risk) but with potential for big upgrade if either Kase stays fully healthy or Bunting is more than a scrappy 15/15 thirdliner, potential for a huge upgrade if BOTH of those happen. I don't think there's much likelihood of Ritchie "getting it" and emerging as a true top line power forward, but that's there as well

Not sure what I'm missing but I'm not seeing an upgrade here. Bunting has hardly played at all in the NHL so maybe he ends up being more than a scrappy 15/15 but he could easily end up being less. Kampf is nothing special and neither is Kase even if he stays healthy. If you're not expecting the world from Ritchie then it looks to me like overall we've upgraded on Thornton but that's not saying much, it's no clear that any of these new guys will contribute more than Gally and we'll certainly miss Hyman. I think the best we can hope for is that our forward isn't much worse that last season but hard to see us being better.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I've been trying to write a simple comparison about what we changed up front, but some much changes based on roles and how we set up the lines, and even which version of last years roster. ie. Are we replacing 1st line LW Hyman with Ritchie, or 3rd line RW Hyman with Kase. Based on

Thornton-Matthews-Marner
Gally/Vesey-Tavares-Nylander
Mikhyev-Kerfoot-Hyman
Engvall-Spezza-Simmonds

to
Ritchie-Matthews-Marner
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Kerfoot-Kampf-Kase
Mikheyev-Engvall-Spezza/Simmonds
OR
Ritchie-Matthews-Marner
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kerfoot-Spezza
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase


IMO we've had a baseline par/slight upgrade (mainly because the addition of Kampf covers some of the winger risk) but with potential for big upgrade if either Kase stays fully healthy or Bunting is more than a scrappy 15/15 thirdliner, potential for a huge upgrade if BOTH of those happen. I don't think there's much likelihood of Ritchie "getting it" and emerging as a true top line power forward, but that's there as well

Yup, I think I agree with pretty well everything you have said. Losing Hyman is no joke. He was the engine of our lineup, and the idea of him not being a Leaf is still gut crushing for me. But the additions of Kampf, Bunting, Ritchie in place of Hyman is really tidy work IMO. 2 of the 3 players listed (Ritchie, Bunting) are signed for 2 years. Which eliminates the prospect of having to do this same in and out again next off season if they continue to progress this coming year. And Kase is expiring next year, however is still within team control (RFA). I don't think Kyle is done personally. I think there is going to be a trade that brings our top 6 picture more into focus. I don't think Ritchie was brought in to play in the top 6 personally. But that's just me speculating. Overall, I really have loved what Kyle has done so far, with maybe the exception of losing McCann to Seattle. But all n all, it really does look like a solid team IMO

 

[zeke]

You're letting your spreadsheets get in the way of common sense. You were headed in the right direction by looking at ice time but you once again are making the mistake of putting too much stock in what happens in the regular season while ignoring the playoffs. Playoffs are where cups are won, in the playoffs, we had 5 Dmen who were never healthy scratches and Bogo was one of them, end of story. Sandin played in 5 PO games, Dermott 3 and Liljegren wasn't even in the picture.

It's OK to admit you're wrong, you should try it sometime.

unsurprisingly, when caught in a lie amidst your endless spinning, you double down yet again.

Playoffs

Even Strength TOI

Rielly 22:20
Brodie 20:17

Holl 18:52
Muzzin 15:58* (17:38 first 5gms, injured early in game 6)

Dermott 16:12
Bogosian 12:56
Sandin 9:58


And if we look only at the first 5gms prior to the Muzzin injury:

Rielly 20:39
Brodie 18:58

Holl 18:05
Muzzin 17:38

Dermott 12:49
Bogosian 12:00
Sandin 8:33


Obviously Bogosian was strictly a bottom pair dman, not "solidly #5", not "borderline #4", no matter that his more talented LHD young pairmates were battling for ice time. When Muzzin went down to injury, of course, there was no thought whatsoever of moving Bogosian up into the top 4, but only his more talented young pairmates.

 

[zeke]

So what is Liljegren at the end of the day? Average defenseman as his ceiling?

I've always liked the Stralman comp for him, if things work out right. Not a high end nhl producer but a good solid defensively mobile puck moving dman who can be the second guy on a top pair or anchor a 2nd pair. If things work out right.

 

[4thline]

Not sure what I'm missing but I'm not seeing an upgrade here. Bunting has hardly played at all in the NHL so maybe he ends up being more than a scrappy 15/15 but he could easily end up being less. Kampf is nothing special and neither is Kase even if he stays healthy. If you're not expecting the world from Ritchie then it looks to me like overall we've upgraded on Thornton but that's not saying much, it's no clear that any of these new guys will contribute more than Gally and we'll certainly miss Hyman. I think the best we can hope for is that our forward isn't much worse that last season but hard to see us being better.

In the 3RW spot a healthy case is definitely a slight downgrade from Hyman but I think you're underselling the non-offensive updgrade from Thornton+ Vesey/Gally to Ritchie+Bunting, and what a bottom 6 C that can handle matchup minutes does for our depth.

 

[TML Dynasty]

Yup, I think I agree with pretty well everything you have said. Losing Hyman is no joke. He was the engine of our lineup, and the idea of him not being a Leaf is still gut crushing for me. But the additions of Kampf, Bunting, Ritchie in place of Hyman is really tidy work IMO. 2 of the 3 players listed (Ritchie, Bunting) are signed for 2 years. Which eliminates the prospect of having to do this same in and out again next off season if they continue to progress this coming year. And Kase is expiring next year, however is still within team control (RFA). I don't think Kyle is done personally. I think there is going to be a trade that brings our top 6 picture more into focus. I don't think Ritchie was brought in to play in the top 6 personally. But that's just me speculating. Overall, I really have loved what Kyle has done so far, with maybe the exception of losing McCann to Seattle. But all n all, it really does look like a solid team IMO

re Top 6 LW I think Kerfoot gets one, and the other will be the one who has the most chemistry between Robertson Bunting Ritchie. (Maybe Kase….don’t know enough about him)

I agree he’s not done but think it’ll be a tough D next.

 

[BlueForever75]

Not sure what I'm missing but I'm not seeing an upgrade here. Bunting has hardly played at all in the NHL so maybe he ends up being more than a scrappy 15/15 but he could easily end up being less. Kampf is nothing special and neither is Kase even if he stays healthy. If you're not expecting the world from Ritchie then it looks to me like overall we've upgraded on Thornton but that's not saying much, it's no clear that any of these new guys will contribute more than Gally and we'll certainly miss Hyman. I think the best we can hope for is that our forward isn't much worse that last season but hard to see us being better.

Put Hyman on Phoenix and he probably produces the same as Bunting!!! He only produced and will continue to produce because of who he played with. Not hard to score garbage goals and gain second assists when playing with players like he has and will!!!! Bunting can do the exact same plus he brings an intangible that Hyman never had which is being a pest with more speed.

As for Ritchie, he played with some skilled players in Boston and showed that he could hold his own. The wildcard in all of this is that he is from Orangeville as Hyman was from Toronto. Hometown players that will play harder for the team that they grew up cheering for. There is no doubt in my mind that he can better his stats this coming season with the top 6 in Toronto while bringing the element we havent had in a very long time. Size and toughness in the top 6. People can say Foligno provided that but we never got to realize it as he was out the majority of the time.

Everyone sees Hyman's loss as a detriment to where this team should go. I see it as an upgrade. Hyman to me became a shadow of what he was when he first started the past couple of years. Less grit and wanting to score more. He lost his edge. We have gained 2 players in Bunting and Ritchie that for at least next season will bring those intangibles back to the roster that we have sorely missed.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

So what is Liljegren at the end of the day? Average defenseman as his ceiling?

If he even turns out average we should plan a parade. I hope I am wrong but my friend watches tons of Marlies games and says there is no chance he becomes anything more than a 3rd pairing guy...if we're lucky. He just doesn't have a high speed CPU under that helmet. He has been in the minors for how many years and he should have been a dominant D-man by now on the Marlies.

There is a reason other GM's let him slide. I guess it was worth the chance but in the end it looks like a busted pick.

 

[The Podium]

If he even turns out average we should plan a parade. I hope I am wrong but my friend watches tons of Marlies games and says there is no chance he becomes anything more than a 3rd pairing guy...if we're lucky. He just doesn't have a high speed CPU under that helmet. He has been in the minors for how many years and he should have been a dominant D-man by now on the Marlies.

There is a reason other GM's let him slide. I guess it was worth the chance but in the end it looks like a busted pick.

Liljegren has looked very good for the Marlies... I bet chances are pretty high he becomes a #4 guy and a good PK option.

He doesnt have #1 potential, but has all the tools to be a solid Hjarmalsson type IMO.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

In the 3RW spot a healthy case is definitely a slight downgrade from Hyman but I think you're underselling the non-offensive updgrade from Thornton+ Vesey/Gally to Ritchie+Bunting, and what a bottom 6 C that can handle matchup minutes does for our depth.

Agreed. I think this lineup is much more balanced with some grit for every line. Grit that can play...

Having a bottom 6 C that can do matchups is a huge bonus for us. We have never had a guy who could PK and play C very well. Kerfoot was just ok at it...but Kampf is going to be a real steal IMO.

Getting rid of the black holes in Jumbo and Vesey is helpful as well. They were a drag on the other guys compared to the new LW we have now IMO. If they just work hard and go to the net the big 4 will take care of the rest.

 

[Zack47]

It will be interesting to see how this years roster does.

One of the young d needs to fill the Bogo role (could happen - tough to do)
Mrazek needs to play as well as last years Freddie ( should happen)
Jack needs to keep it up (can happen but he was good last year)
Ritchie and Bunting need to balance out Hyman and Jumbo (tall order but possible)

on top of that no one can regress and our competition will be tougher.

Note: too many "needs" in that post...

 

[Gary Nylund]

unsurprisingly, when caught in a lie amidst your endless spinning, you double down yet again.

Playoffs

Even Strength TOI

Rielly 22:20
Brodie 20:17

Holl 18:52
Muzzin 15:58* (17:38 first 5gms, injured early in game 6)

Dermott 16:12
Bogosian 12:56
Sandin 9:58

And if we look only at the first 5gms prior to the Muzzin injury:

Rielly 20:39
Brodie 18:58

Holl 18:05
Muzzin 17:38

Dermott 12:49
Bogosian 12:00
Sandin 8:33

Obviously Bogosian was strictly a bottom pair dman, not "solidly #5", not "borderline #4", no matter that his more talented LHD young pairmates were battling for ice time. When Muzzin went down to injury, of course, there was no thought whatsoever of moving Bogosian up into the top 4, but only his more talented young pairmates.

It's sad that your reaction to not understanding something is to accuse people of lying. Again, your calculations are lacking common sense which says that when others are playing while you are a healthy scratch, those guys are ahead of you on the depth chart.

Total minutes of ice time in the playoffs:
Bogo - 105
Sandin - 66
Dermott - 45
Liljegren - 0

Bogo played almost as much as the other 3 put together, it doesn't get much more clear than that. You never admit to being wrong about anything but ... you're wrong.

In the 3RW spot a healthy case is definitely a slight downgrade from Hyman but I think you're underselling the non-offensive updgrade from Thornton+ Vesey/Gally to Ritchie+Bunting, and what a bottom 6 C that can handle matchup minutes does for our depth.

It's not clear what Ritchie will be for us, it's not clear Kase can stay healthy and I thought Gally was good for us, especially in the playoffs. Like I said, I'm not seeing it but you're a good poster, I respect your views and you probably know more about these new guys so I hope it's me who's out to lunch here and you end up being right.

 

[4thline]

Agreed. I think this lineup is much more balanced with some grit for every line. Grit that can play...

Having a bottom 6 C that can do matchups is a huge bonus for us. We have never had a guy who could PK and play C very well. Kerfoot was just ok at it...but Kampf is going to be a real steal IMO.

Getting rid of the black holes in Jumbo and Vesey is helpful as well. They were a drag on the other guys compared to the new LW we have now IMO. If they just work hard and go to the net the big 4 will take care of the rest.

One of the most interesting aspects about Kampf was pointed out above, that by usage he's pretty much a defensive 3C and that might free Kerfoot for top 6 LW.

Ritchie-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Bunting-Kampf-Kase
Mikheyev-Engvall/Brooks - Spezza/Simmonds

Soup can slot up if Kase gets hurt. Rotate the old boys to keep em fresh, good old fashioned training camp battle between Brooks and Engvall

 

[mydnyte]

Would it be going out on a limb to think the 1st. line is going to be on a mission this year?

Additionally, ?-Kerfoot-Nylander looked like a legitimate line without Tavares.
The question is whether it was Nylander stepping up, like in the Euro's, or was it Kerfoot being paired with a top line player?

One might even be able to suggest, Tavares going down showed they can create a 2nd. line without him.

Let's play the games and find out.

I think that Matthews and Marner are breathing a sigh of relief that Hyman is gone, and they will finally get a winger that can 'play' and doesnt just hang onto the puck and never give it back to either of them.