Prospect Info: Leafs Pick #125 - Dmytro Timashov - LW/RW - UKR 5' 9" 192 QMJHL

[TheProspector]

Unfortunately, Timashov is unlikely to get into the NHL. Putting up 1.36ppg in the Q at 18 -- even a young 18 -- is not NHLer material.

There are 36 18 year-olds who have put up 1.2-1.4ppg in the Q, and the only NHLers are Anthony Mantha, Michael Ryder and Jiri Fischer. Fischer, of course, did it as a defenceman, which is more impressive.

At this point, I'd give the odds of him playing a full season in the NHL around 10%.

 

[67Cup]

Any pick from the late first round on is statistically unlikely to become an NHL regular so I am not arguing that Timashov will make it. Nor am I even challenging the 10% figure you advance. I don't know what a reasonable percentage would be. But comparing him to a pool of 36 Q players who scored 1.2-1.4 ppg in their 18th year must surely take you back to a higher scoring era in the CHL in general and the Q in particular. I would have to be persuaded of the relevance of your sample.

 

[ToneBone03]

Unfortunately, Timashov is unlikely to get into the NHL. Putting up 1.36ppg in the Q at 18 -- even a young 18 -- is not NHLer material.

There are 36 18 year-olds who have put up 1.2-1.4ppg in the Q, and the only NHLers are Anthony Mantha, Michael Ryder and Jiri Fischer. Fischer, of course, did it as a defenceman, which is more impressive.

At this point, I'd give the odds of him playing a full season in the NHL around 10%.

How does he compare to other first-year imports? I believe that would be a better way to quantify his statistics.

 

[Guy Boucher]

Unfortunately, Timashov is unlikely to get into the NHL. Putting up 1.36ppg in the Q at 18 -- even a young 18 -- is not NHLer material.

There are 36 18 year-olds who have put up 1.2-1.4ppg in the Q, and the only NHLers are Anthony Mantha, Michael Ryder and Jiri Fischer. Fischer, of course, did it as a defenceman, which is more impressive.

At this point, I'd give the odds of him playing a full season in the NHL around 10%.

The scoring frequency in the QMJHL has changed significantly since 1998 when Jiri Fischer was hanging around. You'd have to filter your search to the last 5-6 years or so to get a better idea of Timashov's chances.

10% seems pretty low, I would expect his chances to be closer to 20% or so which is slightly more than the average 4th round pick.

 

[Pholus]

The scoring frequency in the QMJHL has changed significantly since 1998 when Jiri Fischer was hanging around. You'd have to filter your search to the last 5-6 years or so to get a better idea of Timashov's chances.

10% seems pretty low, I would expect his chances to be closer to 20% or so which is slightly more than the average 4th round pick.

But much higher than average for a 5th rd pick

 

[crump]

The science and math in this thread is astounding. Wow 10%. Let's see, if someone is undersized and scores more than a point a game in the Quebec league, their chances are slim. How about Crosby, probably only had a 50/50 chance at making the big leagues, the guy was 5'10" 180 soaking wet only scored a measly 2.4 ppg in the Q.

 

[ULF_55]

The scoring frequency in the QMJHL has changed significantly since 1998 when Jiri Fischer was hanging around. You'd have to filter your search to the last 5-6 years or so to get a better idea of Timashov's chances.

10% seems pretty low, I would expect his chances to be closer to 20% or so which is slightly more than the average 4th round pick.

I'm not too concerned, when Barbashev, 33rd. overall pick only has a 10% chance of making it, 10% for 125th. overall is pretty good.

Duclair a 19 year old only had a 1.3 PPG this year, odds are small he'll oh wait ...

Guess we'll just have to wait, but certainly comparing Crosby's 100 point seasons to Gretzky's 200 point seasons ...

 

[xeroy]

After reading that MapleLeafHotStove article, I'm convinced that Timashov will have a good chance to make it to the NHL. Maybe not a top 6, but if he ends up being a superb 3rd line player that can step up to the 2nd line, i'll be happy. If he ends up having to compete with the likes of Kapanen, Nylander, Marner, JVR, Kadri among others for a top 6 role, we'd be in a good enough position to even deal him if we have to for a top 4 RD or a 1st/2nd rounder which would mean we profited heavily from picking him so low.

 

[cookie]

How would Timashov's trajectory compare to a guy like Sven Baertschi? Both guys were in similar situations: European imports who played their rookie season in the CHL and put up ppg+ (1.36 DT; 1.29 SB) before being drafted. Sure Dmytro didn't have RyJo in his team but Erne's (1.43 ppg) effect on production could be similar...
Sven played another year in the WHL, got 5 NHL games before being bounced around the AHL and the NHL. I think Timashov could follow the same pattern and have his fair share of NHL call-ups but unlike Baertschi, he doesn't have that formidable shot. What snipers could the Leafs play him with in the near future? Also to note, Baertschi's a high first round pick whereas Timashov's a faller. It might mean that unless Timashov fixes his short-comings, he'll be bounced around the AHL and NHL.

 

[RoadWarrior]

His 1.36 PPG in the Q is impressive considering it was his first year in North America playing major junior regardless of his age. This was still his first year of draft eligibility so it's not like he was passed over.

The scouts were raving about the guy. His only weakness seems to be his shooting but that's fixable.

 

[Mess]

His 1.36 PPG in the Q is impressive considering it was his first year in North America playing major junior regardless of his age. This was still his first year of draft eligibility so it's not like he was passed over.

The scouts were raving about the guy. His only weakness seems to be his shooting but that's fixable.

Because of his size 5-9 he tends to play a lot on the perimeter generating offense from the outside. For smaller players that is often a tendency as more a self preservation thing to avoid get hit hard playing in higher traffic areas.

Its also more a European style game where there is bigger ice and more time and space to operate.

He does however have a solid build at 192lbs, so that will allow him to withstand the physical contact a bit better from a smaller player in statue and his game might round out better as he matures and gains confidence more.

 

[Gabriel426]

He's older and really well developed physically. That part of his development is not there as much as it is for many other players. He's also short.

Thanks. So in another words, scouts and teams think he reached his ceiling.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

Because of his size 5-9 he tends to play a lot on the perimeter generating offense from the outside. For smaller players that is often a tendency as more a self preservation thing to avoid get hit hard playing in higher traffic areas.

Its also more a European style game where there is bigger ice and more time and space to operate.

He does however have a solid build at 192lbs, so that will allow him to withstand the physical contact a bit better from a smaller player in statue and his game might round out better as he matures and gains confidence more.

I worry about perimeter players if they are pure shooters. To me, unless you have an outstanding shot (think Kessel), it will be hard to be an effective NHLer if you prefer to play on the perimeters. For a playmaker, I don't see it as a big deal. setting up on the wall makes a lot of sense -- you get to see all the ice in front of you.

 

[IBeL34f]

He's not really a perimeter player, he has no problem cutting in towards the net.

The play may start for him along the boards, but that's 'cause he's, y'know, a Winger.

 

[Kelly]

Timashov scores a nice goal.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Dat board work

 

[leafers]

Very impressive and what a sexy shot.

 

[ULF_55]

Timashov scores a nice goal.

http://worldjuniors.usahockey.com/game/show/10935611

Added an assist on the winner.

 

[Bullseye]

The kid has a maturity to his game but the real question of whether he makes it or not is the same question facing many top scorers - he skating and his physical fitness. If he tackles both like a pro his skill set and and his maturity gives him a decent chance.

Just fun to have another skilled guy to watch this year. Gone are the Burkie plugs of the last 5 years.

 

[shelf]

Here is a complete list of players to score between 1.3 and 1.5 points per game in their draft year in the QMJHL over the last 10 seasons.

Claude Giroux
Francois Bouchard
Angelo Esposito
Jakub Voracek
Zach Phillips
Mikhail Grigorenko
Anthony Mantha
Ivan Barbashyov
Anthony Richard
Anthony Beauvillier
Timo Meier
Dmytro Timashov
Yevgeni Svechnikov

 

[Semantics]

Here is a complete list of players to score between 1.3 and 1.5 points per game in their draft year in the QMJHL over the last 10 seasons.

Claude Giroux
Francois Bouchard
Angelo Esposito
Jakub Voracek
Zach Phillips
Mikhail Grigorenko
Anthony Mantha
Ivan Barbashyov
Anthony Richard
Anthony Beauvillier
Timo Meier
Dmytro Timashov
Yevgeni Svechnikov

Thank you. The "18 year olds in the Q" stat someone posted seems awfully cherry picked. If that was based on birth year, then most 18 year olds are in their draft+1 year. It's not really fair to compare a late 1996 to the early 1996s, who are all in their draft+1 year and have at least a full year of additional experience in that league. And if you narrow it down to those with late birthdays the sample size is probably tiny.

Odds are Timashov won't make the NHL, but his PPG is fine. If people can go nuts over Konecny and his 1.13 PPG as a sophomore OHL player then 1.36 PPG as a rookie QMJHL player who's five months older is pretty good for a 5th round pick in my view.

 

[Drew75]

Because of his size 5-9 he tends to play a lot on the perimeter generating offense from the outside. For smaller players that is often a tendency as more a self preservation thing to avoid get hit hard playing in higher traffic areas.

Its also more a European style game where there is bigger ice and more time and space to operate.

He does however have a solid build at 192lbs, so that will allow him to withstand the physical contact a bit better from a smaller player in statue and his game might round out better as he matures and gains confidence more.

I can't speak with certainty - but I've read a lot of scouting reports that contradicts this and indicates that for a small guy, Timashov is NOT afraid to go in the corners or to the net.

One Scout claims: “Short stature is not a concern as he’s involved all over the ice. Has consistently been the most dangerous forward in the Q so far this year.â€

From what I've read - the knock on him is that is only just now starting to learn when to dish the puck and when to hold it - was guilty a lot last year of over-handling the disk.

 

[Bullseye]

I can't speak with certainty - but I've read a lot of scouting reports that contradicts this and indicates that for a small guy, Timashov is NOT afraid to go in the corners or to the net.

One Scout claims: “Short stature is not a concern as he’s involved all over the ice. Has consistently been the most dangerous forward in the Q so far this year.â€

From what I've read - the knock on him is that is only just now starting to learn when to dish the puck and when to hold it - was guilty a lot last year of over-handling the disk.

Pretty sure his skating will be his only major obstacle but it is a major one - he is an awkward skater.

 

[deletethis]

Thank you. The "18 year olds in the Q" stat someone posted seems awfully cherry picked. If that was based on birth year, then most 18 year olds are in their draft+1 year. It's not really fair to compare a late 1996 to the early 1996s, who are all in their draft+1 year and have at least a full year of additional experience in that league. And if you narrow it down to those with late birthdays the sample size is probably tiny.

Odds are Timashov won't make the NHL, but his PPG is fine. If people can go nuts over Konecny and his 1.13 PPG as a sophomore OHL player then 1.36 PPG as a rookie QMJHL player who's five months older is pretty good for a 5th round pick in my view.

I can only speak for myself on Konecny but it ain't his PPG numbers that wowed me, it was his flashy skills, especially flashy finish. From what I saw from 2015 draftees, only Marner was more impressive on the rush than Konecny. I certainly wouldn't have minded if the Leafs had picked Konecny instead of trading down but who knows they may have picked Dermott at that spot if they hadn't traded down and not added those additional rolls of the dice for an NHL player.

 

[Gabriel426]

Not saying Konecny won't be a bad player and all but I could see some on this board going all out panic mode if the Leafs used their 24th overall with another small player. To me, i think the chance of a 5th rounder making it to be a regular in the NHL is already tough regardless of their size. Bc let's face it, if the said player is any good, he would have been drafted in the top 10. That's why if Dmytro can make the Leafs as a regular, he is already a success regardless of how well he performs in the NHL.