Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose 5 -1

[colchar]

I hope I am wrong...but what if he got mono and that's why he isn't around the other players? That thought passed through my mind when they said he woke up on Thursday with something tweaked....scary to think about and I hope I am wrong. It's either discipline or Mono for him to not be with the others.

It could be any one of a hundred communicable things that they don't want spreading through the room - from the flu to Covid - but you're somehow dead convinced it is Mono???

 

[TheGreenTBer]

How in the bloody f*** did the leafs have 7.2 expected goals lool?

What were these chances?

How did the Bruins who hit 3 posts + scored 4 goals on a goalie (does ENG count for expecred goals?) Have only 3 goals expected?

A 2 on 1 chance, the 4th goal a 2 on 1 down low. Those are give me goals/very high danger chances.

The other two goals were iffy but they were similar type of chances we generated.

Our best looks were the Matthews Post, Benoit Post, Robertson slot shot, Jarnkrok dumb shot on trailing 2 on 1 and then 2 looks on the 4 on 3

None of those chances were give mes besides maybe Matthews post whicb was still an awkward angle he hit the post on

Expected goals for paints this game as we dominated. You watch any highlight video on youtube and no way shape or form does it look like we outplayed them.

Agreed.

We didn't play as badly as the score said but I don't know how anyone watches that game and comes away with the conclusion we dominated. That is like next-level generational copium.

 

[rumman]

I remember him being different in the playoffs last year.

I was never a fan, right from his Marlies days (used to take my late father to a lot of Marlies games so we saw Nylander when he was with them). Tons of talent, zero shits given. But after last year's playoffs my opinion of him changed as he seemed to be the only only of the core who cared.

I find it funny that some think because he didn’t suck as much as 34, 16, 91 in last season’s playoffs he’s now on a level with Glenn Anderson as a playoff warrior, nothing imo could be further from the truth, but Leaf Nation has little to cling to so enjoy what little they give you to cheer on………

 

[All Mod Cons]

Possible, but not probable, I don’t know about you, but my problems rarely disappear or solve themselves……..

But if he moved to Nashville or Dallas or somewhere in California he might feel he's got the chance his playoff performances are not scrutinized so much. There is a chance he might move and then can get that 8th year as he approaches FA.

 

[PromisedLand]

How much is Tavares overpaid by? How much is Nylander at 7 mil an underpay?

Do they cancel each other out this year? How is it a throw away year? This is a loser mentality.

X: I am gonna jump off of CN Tower, I believe I can fly.

Me: Don't be f***ing stupid; you gonna fall to your death. You need to plan for such a jump. Do you have the gear that will at least let you glide down?

X: Thats a loser mentality

Me: What acknowledging reality? gravity is real

X: LOL

Me: Yea... I have much better things to do. And also f*** Dubas for creating the hell hole and f*** shanahan for allowing that to happen

 

[Gallagbi]

How in the bloody f*** did the leafs have 7.2 expected goals lool?

It almost looks like moneypuck has a bad formula for that 4on3 PP. Aside from that 2 minutes, it looks like their numbers and on ice play reflect.

~4.5 of the 7.2 comes in that 2 minutes PP, many early on the 4on3. I like natural statstrick info better but moneypuck lays out way nicer

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Just stop it man. The previous regime had championship aspirations and spent their money on Murray, Campbell, Mrazek and Samsonov and we're just working through those decisions. If you think things couldn't have been managed better and we can't upgrade the position in the future, we'll just agree to disagree.

Stephen, once you accept the premise that Dubas has never ever EVER done anything wrong, you'll understand....

 

[hamzarocks]

View attachment 856651

Looks like we got a lot of shots from inside the diamond... that's probably why.

Also think we had 50% more shots than them.



You're making up your own argument now.

Expected stats help to see the game in another way, not much else.

No results change, it just adds more to the analysis.

Weirdly, you don't like them and then in another post above you started discussing the psychology of the players, at least the expected stats are things that have happened and that is how the numbers are being generated... you're just making assumptions and guessing.

I watched the full game, have watched 3 differenr highlight videos now and these great looks in the diamond include a bunch of nothing looks. Some below exmaples of shots from "diamond/high danger area" for expected stats which were nothing/limited chances

1) 1st period Marner with a pass/shot thrown to the net whicb tips off Ravares ticks but doesnt get off the ice, is redirected by Swayman away to the cornee with no issues

2) Matthews has a wrap around that is easily stopped and turned away by Swayman. A non dangerous chance if not maybe it being Matthews, but I dont thinj expected goals considers shooting talent/ability?

3) Matthews takes another pass from bertuzzi which is a poor pass that he bats into the air and guides towards the net. Not a chance really but think it was a SOG.

4) Knies gets a semi decent look in high slot early in 1st but there is no traffic and hes not a sniper. Its a good but not great save by Swayman

5) Tavares gets a semi rush (too slow to get rush, with d-man on his behind) he takes a slapper from the high slot which is again an easy save)

Leafs had no chances on the PP as dangerous as the two that the bruins hit the post one. Both were slot and higher slot chances that had traffic making it hard to track the puck

I dont remember any real chance at EVS where we drove the puck to the net and got a high look/jam chance. Bruins had a big chance where samsonov made save on in the 1st which just missed (lilijgren man got a chance in front of net, matthews man he boxed out on reblund stopping second/third chance)

The shots after 2 periods were also closer before the bruins sat back in the 3rd and leafs had a semi push forst 7-8 mins of the period

They did not have even the type of looks they had in game 1 vs MTL

 

[TheGreenTBer]

But if he moved to Nashville or Dallas or somewhere in California he might feel he's got the chance his playoff performances are not scrutinized so much. There is a chance he might move and then can get that 8th year as he approaches FA.

Yup.

Leafs won't move him within the season guaranteed though so it would have to take place during the summer.

My guess is that they lose him for nothing or re-sign him and make it literally 100% impossible to have a balanced team going forward.

Stephen, once you accept the premise that Dubas has never ever EVER done anything wrong, you'll understand....

The Penguins missing the playoffs by like 1 or 2 points made me SOOOOOO happy.

 

[rumman]

But if he moved to Nashville or Dallas or somewhere in California he might feel he's got the chance his playoff performances are not scrutinized so much. There is a chance he might move and then can get that 8th year as he approaches FA.

He’s newly married, I’m sure a exotic place in California or Florida might appeal to his new bride, hope she can help make it happen……..

 

[Suntouchable13]

The advanced stats "nerds" are hoping that one day hockey games will be decided by who had more "expected goals". Seriously, who cares? Leafs just need to get it done. Fans shouldn't argue "but expected goals, though!". It doesn't count.

 

[Blanka]

Meh

 

[Matthews4Calder]

Yeah I don't see this team competing for a cup this year or next. We need these Tavares/Marner/Brodie deals gone. If Marner takes a significant discount, bring him back otherwise he can f*** right off.

Marner isn't going to take a discount. Management have no clue and will keep dishing out and overpaying. The writing has been on the wall for years with this bunch and management thinks miracously one day it's going to change. It's not. Move on from this heartless bunch before it's too late. If you hopefully persuade someone to drop their NMC's then ship them out.

 

[All Mod Cons]

It almost looks like moneypuck has a bad formula for that 4on3 PP. Aside from that 2 minutes, it looks like their numbers and on ice play reflect.

~4.5 of the 7.2 comes in that 2 minutes PP, many early on the 4on3. I like natural statstrick info better but moneypuck lays out way nicer

So you're saying their numbers cannot be trusted?

 

[hamzarocks]

It almost looks like moneypuck has a bad formula for that 4on3 PP. Aside from that 2 minutes, it looks like their numbers and on ice play reflect.

I have been rewatching highlights of the games and honestly dont see anything to crazy dangerous for us

Our best chances I keep seeing are

1) Robertson slot chance. Nice and dangerous issue is he cant elevate the puck much

2) Matthews post on empty net which he has a weird angle but cant finish. Tough break as it could be 1-1

3) Jarnkrok had a 2 on 1 type chance but his shot wasnt really well placed and hes not skilled enough to slow down and make a cross oce pass to trailing 2 on 1 forward

4) Benoit post in the 3rd where we had i think MM, AM, JT on. Was a good shift where we cycled and got zone time before benoit jumped in and almost got a goal.

besides those there were the 4 on 3 looks which were alright but we overpassed/tried to force JT who is washed to be the finisher

We didnt have as much puck movement on our PPs as the bruins (they got more so easier to remember for them I guess), didnt have to many screened traffic shots like the bruins and had basically no odd man rushes

I dont think this was a 5-1 game

I think it was a 4-2 game with an ENG for the bruins.

There 1st and 4th goals were prettt tough saves and hard to stop.

Goals 3 and 4 probably get one of those back but they did hit 3 posts so that equals out to 3 goals for me

Leafs should have 2 of Robertson + Benoit or Matthews post go in but then I doubt 4th line scores/plays enough in 3rd

 

[ChurchOfMatthews]

I hope I am wrong...but what if he got mono and that's why he isn't around the other players? That thought passed through my mind when they said he woke up on Thursday with something tweaked....scary to think about and I hope I am wrong. It's either discipline or Mono for him to not be with the others.

If Willy is in next game and looks no worse for wear I'm going to go with discipline. If it's Mono I guess we'll see him next year.

 

[PromisedLand]

Also both domi and matty cost da team badly with terrible penalties which caused 2 bruin pp goals against .. both were penalties which should never have occured .. but 5 to 3 on penalty calls in a playoff game is bad game mgmt from refs .. how does this occur? .. i know exactly how it happens .. and i expected it ftom jacobs

Sometimes bad calls happen and you gotta fight through that too. I mean why is it that Boston's PP scored but Leafs PP can't even do f*** all including a 4 on 3 for almost full 2 minutes?

How is it that Boston's coach separates Marchand and Pasta on two separate PPs but Leafs can't do that shit - in an event Leafs don't score they have to send out un-tested players against Opposition's top players as opposition just killed a penalty and will load up for their next shift

Sheldon Keefe must be held accountable sometime right? RIGHT?

 

[stealth1]

Not another game where people can comment templated responses without watching the game. I mean why watch a game unless people can talk about what really happened?

I saw another game where the guys who paid the big bucks did very little. While the outshot Boston, they didn't go to the dirty areas or have guys in front of the net like Boston did.

This team will never win anything til the highest paid players play like. Look at MacKinnon, McDavid and Eichel, they lead their teams and bring it every night in the playoffs.

When you watch Matthews and Marner, they play the same as they do during the regular season

 

[wingman75]

Too bad Tre or Shanahan resigned 88 and gifted him a NMC, it’s next to impossible to fix what you can’t remove from the situation, and that goes for the rest of the entitled one’s who can’t play playoff hockey……..

Don't disagree, but I also don't think 88 is the one that has to go from the core.

It's a lose lose situation. We will never get value for any of those guys in a trade... But the value can't be assessed by looking at the assets only.

 

[saffronleaf]

5 goals in the last 37 playoff games for 11mil a year is pretty nuts though.

Goals mean nothing when compared to secondary assists incidental to your role carrying the puck

 

[notdoneyet]

If Willy is in next game and looks no worse for wear I'm going to go with discipline. If it's Mono I guess we'll see him next year.

If it’s mono he hopes it gets clear fir the world championships on the big ice where he doesn’t have to worry about getting hit

 

[rumman]

Don't disagree, but I also don't think 88 is the one that has to go from the core.

It's a lose lose situation. We will never get value for any of those guys in a trade... But the value can't be assessed by looking at the assets only.

Let them be winners elsewhere if we can acquire players who can make it happen here, I care about winning cups, not who won the trade………….

 

[wingman75]

Let them be winners elsewhere if we can acquire players who can make it happen here, I care about winning cups, not who won the trade………….

I really feel like we are in the minority there, but could not agree more!

 

[Sypher04]

It’s only game 1 but definitely not the start you wanted.

The biggest two concerns by a mile leading into the playoffs were PK and goaltending and lo and behold they sunk us in game 1.

It’s not all on Sammy by any stretch. You simply have to score more than 1 goal. We are not a team built to win if the offenses is sputtering.

The game score makes it look like we played poorly. I don’t think we did tbh, but there are no moral victories. We need better and I’m still betting we get it.

The PK and goaltending though are incredibly worrisome

 

[hotpaws]

The Penguins missing the playoffs by like 1 or 2 points made me SOOOOOO happy.

I really enjoyed that as well , lol

not only did they miss the playoffs by 3 pts but they were also 3 pts worse than the previous season even though the self proclaimed genius traded picks and gave out big money deals to try to improve the team

i also like how he was floating that he wanted a huge pkg for Geuntzel then the market for him moved on and he settled for meh prospects and a 2nd