Eklund Rumor: Leafs in on Cam Fowler

[Ciao]

I think your definition of complicated differs a tad from mine. Adding Fowler to that list just means you protect Fowler. It's that simple. Just because you can't protect a lesser defenseman doesn't make it more complicated. Every team is in the exact same situation. If you aren't at risk to lose a pretty decent defenseman, after naming 3 protected ones, it's because your blue line is shallow.

Would the Ducks protect Fowler?

Bieksa is under contract for the next two seasons with a NMC.

If they don't buy out Bieksa they have to protect him. Do they also protect Lindholm and Vatanen, leaving Fowler exposed and possibly gone for nothing?

Do they avoid losing Fowler to expansion by buying out Bieksa, or by trading Fowler for the best value they can get?

If they don't get a good enough deal for Fowler, does it come down to buying out Bieksa or exposing Fowler?

When is Fowler's value the highest? Now, while he has two years left, or approaching the expansion draft when he has only one season left under contract and is essentially a rental?

If Fowler's trade-value diminishes as the expansion draft approaches, does that create pressure on Ducks' management to trade him sooner rather than later?

If the best deal available for Fowler is not enough, and they buy-out Bieksa to keep Fowler, would the Ducks then re-sign Fowler to a new contract when his present deal expires?

From the Ducks side it doesn't sound all that simple to me, except in the sense that if they aren't able to trade him for good value before the expansion draft things get more complicated from there.

I think your definition of "simple" might be a little different from mine as well.

The Ducks' predicament with Fowler doesn't sound too simple to me.

 

[lindholmie]

He certainly has more talent and i'd argue is better overall.

not even your coach would agree. He doesn't even PK and is sheltered on the worst team in the league

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Would the Ducks protect Fowler?

Bieksa is under contract for the next two seasons with a NMC.

If they don't buy out Bieksa they have to protect him. Do they also protect Lindholm and Vatanen, leaving Fowler exposed and possibly gone for nothing?

Do they avoid losing Fowler to expansion by buying out Bieksa, or by trading Fowler for the best value they can get?

If they don't get a good enough deal for Fowler, does it come down to buying out Bieksa or exposing Fowler?

When is Fowler's value the highest? Now, while he has two years left, or approaching the expansion draft when he has only one season left under contract and is essentially a rental?

If Fowler's trade-value diminishes as the expansion draft approaches, does that create pressure on Ducks' management to trade him sooner rather than later?

If the best deal available for Fowler is not enough, and they buy-out Bieksa to keep Fowler, would the Ducks then re-sign Fowler to a new contract when his present deal expires?

From the Ducks side it doesn't sound all that simple to me, except in the sense that if they aren't able to trade him for good value before the expansion draft things get more complicated from there.

I think your definition of "simple" might be a little different from mine as well.

The Ducks' predicament with Fowler doesn't sound too simple to me.

Bieksa will either waive his NMC to be left unprotected (a formality, since Vegas would not select him), or he'll be bought out. You can bank on one of those two scenarios regardless of what happens with Fowler.

 

[garyturner3]

this is kinda getting derailed from my original point.
leafs are not gonna wanna expose carrick. if they do, he is gone. giving up a significant asset (JVR/Nylander/Kadri) for a dman that will also need to be protected makes no sense.

the ducks are the ones with the troubles cap and expansion draft wise.
leafs probably just see what they have with the current group, and its highly likely they grab a dman with their high pick next year

I think that's far from a certainty. Just go through the rest of the teams in the league as it stands right now to see what D would be available. Even if Carrick has a breakout year he would be very, very far down the depth chart of available d-men so Vegas may have no interest in him if they've already selected a pile of good d-men. I have high hopes for Carrick, but the majority of teams would currently be exposing a better player than Carrick on D if the expansion draft was today.

 

[Ciao]

I think that's far from a certainty. Just go through the rest of the teams in the league as it stands right now to see what D would be available. Even if Carrick has a breakout year he would be very, very far down the depth chart of available d-men so Vegas may have no interest in him if they've already selected a pile of good d-men. I have high hopes for Carrick, but the majority of teams would currently be exposing a better player than Carrick on D if the expansion draft was today.

Vegas has to take one player from every team. No matter how good the other teams' players are, they will be selecting one Leaf.

At the end of next season, the Leafs might appreciate the opportunity to protect Carrick or Marincin. I think they need to see how those players will perform this season first, and I hope they do keep their options open.

Acquiring Fowler locks them in, which is a good thing if Fowler comes cheaply but it would be a bad thing if they have to pay a lot (such as JVR) to get him. The asset plus the opportunity cost of exposing another defenceman all goes into the equation that answers the question: Is it worth it? Maybe. Maybe not.

 

[garyturner3]

Vegas has to take one player from every team. No matter how good the other teams' players are, they will be selecting one Leaf.

At the end of next season, the Leafs might appreciate the opportunity to protect Carrick or Marincin. I think they need to see how those players will perform this season first, and I hope they do keep their options open.

Acquiring Fowler locks them in, which is a good thing if Fowler comes cheaply but it would be a bad thing if they have to pay a lot (such as JVR) to get him. The asset plus the opportunity cost of exposing another defenceman all goes into the equation that answers the question: Is it worth it? Maybe. Maybe not.

I realize that. But my point was d-men are going to be very valuable in this draft because you can only protect 3. Almost every team currently would have to expose a better d-man than Carrick so there's a good chance Vegas will have picked 10+ better d-men already so when it comes time to pick a Leaf player they may just decide to fill a bottom six forward spot instead even IF Carrick is the best player exposed on TO. And that IF is a big if because Carrick still needs to prove himself.

 

[Ciao]

I realize that. But my point was d-men are going to be very valuable in this draft because you can only protect 3. Almost every team currently would have to expose a better d-man than Carrick so there's a good chance Vegas will have picked 10+ better d-men already so when it comes time to pick a Leaf player they may just decide to fill a bottom six forward spot instead even IF Carrick is the best player exposed on TO. And that IF is a big if because Carrick still needs to prove himself.

I agree 100% that there are a lot of "if's" in this. That's where the Leafs are right now: they're a young team under development and there aren't many clear answers on what they have or don't have yet.

 

[CreeksideStrangler]

Vegas has to take one player from every team. No matter how good the other teams' players are, they will be selecting one Leaf.

At the end of next season, the Leafs might appreciate the opportunity to protect Carrick or Marincin. I think they need to see how those players will perform this season first, and I hope they do keep their options open.

Acquiring Fowler locks them in, which is a good thing if Fowler comes cheaply but it would be a bad thing if they have to pay a lot (such as JVR) to get him. The asset plus the opportunity cost of exposing another defenceman all goes into the equation that answers the question: Is it worth it? Maybe. Maybe not.

haha the leafs will not be protecting guys like carrick if they get someone to slot into the top 4 with gardiner, rielly, zeitsev.

 

[Ciao]

^ A year from now that other top-four defenceman could very well be Carrick or Marincin, or both or neither of them.

The Leafs don't really know where Zaitsev will be either. They think he's top-four, but you never know.

This is not a team banging on the door of the playoffs (I'm sure you've noticed that), and for them it's all about the future.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

^ A year from now that other top-four defenceman could very well be Carrick or Marincin, or both or neither of them.

The Leafs don't really know where Zaitsev will be either. They think he's top-four, but you never know.

This is not a team banging on the door of the playoffs (I'm sure you've noticed that), and for them it's all about the future.

It won't be Marincin

 

[Mr Hockey*]

^ A year from now that other top-four defenceman could very well be Carrick or Marincin, or both or neither of them.

The Leafs don't really know where Zaitsev will be either. They think he's top-four, but you never know.

This is not a team banging on the door of the playoffs (I'm sure you've noticed that), and for them it's all about the future.

I can easily see Rielly, Zeitsev, Carrick and Marincin as our top 4 in the 2nd half of next season.

 

[jaric1862]

It won't be Marincin

Hes got potential to be a top-4 shutdown d-man for sure

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Hes got potential to be a top-4 shutdown d-man for sure

I see him as a bottom pair guy he has ZERO offensive game

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Would the Ducks protect Fowler?

Bieksa is under contract for the next two seasons with a NMC.

If they don't buy out Bieksa they have to protect him. Do they also protect Lindholm and Vatanen, leaving Fowler exposed and possibly gone for nothing?

Do they avoid losing Fowler to expansion by buying out Bieksa, or by trading Fowler for the best value they can get?

If they don't get a good enough deal for Fowler, does it come down to buying out Bieksa or exposing Fowler?

When is Fowler's value the highest? Now, while he has two years left, or approaching the expansion draft when he has only one season left under contract and is essentially a rental?

If Fowler's trade-value diminishes as the expansion draft approaches, does that create pressure on Ducks' management to trade him sooner rather than later?

If the best deal available for Fowler is not enough, and they buy-out Bieksa to keep Fowler, would the Ducks then re-sign Fowler to a new contract when his present deal expires?

From the Ducks side it doesn't sound all that simple to me, except in the sense that if they aren't able to trade him for good value before the expansion draft things get more complicated from there.

I think your definition of "simple" might be a little different from mine as well.

The Ducks' predicament with Fowler doesn't sound too simple to me.

they will trade him before even considering not protecting him, he would be swooped up in an instant

 

[ForSpareParts*]

We are on page 29. Are the Leafs in on Fowler?

 

[mytduxfan*]

We are on page 29. Are the Leafs in on Fowler?

Nope, Fowler sucks. He's a #4 at best. In fact, based on the stats, and by stats I mean just shot suppression stats (I don't want anything to with that zone exits nonsense), he's probably just a #5. However, to prove that I have watched him, I'll say he has good skating, even though literally everyone has known that's his best asset ever since he was drafted.

Yep, no point in taking a player that is being carried by Kevin Bieksa.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

We are on page 29. Are the Leafs in on Fowler?

What do you think? Eklund has zero credibility, There's zero indications that the Leafs are looking at Fowler other then Eklund mentioning it. I'm not saying that they're not looking in on him. Just saying that Eklund needs a lot to be desired.

 

[Paul4587]

Nope, Fowler sucks. He's a #4 at best. In fact, based on the stats, and by stats I mean just shot suppression stats (I don't want anything to with that zone exits nonsense), he's probably just a #5. However, to prove that I have watched him, I'll say he has good skating, even though literally everyone has known that's his best asset ever since he was drafted.

Yep, no point in taking a player that is being carried by Kevin Bieksa.

Couldn't have said it better. He's also basically a PP specialist. Third pairing guy at best. Josh Manson is much better.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

This one makes some sense, and not so much sense to me.

Leafs have little cap room to sign Fowler long term when you forecast they will be in the same situation when some of their young players are looking for RFA increases.

Ducks it does make sense since Theodore a D man I am very high on for awhile is most likely ready.

Some to like here, some not so.

 

[Ciao]

We are on page 29. Are the Leafs in on Fowler?

No.

Fowler is a top-four LHD who is not enough of an improvement over Gardiner to make a significant improvement on the left side.

It doesn't make sense for the Leafs to send their #1 LW -- JVR -- over for him. If the price were lower the answer might be different.

If Fowler had the identical skills and abilities but we're an RHD he would absolutely fill a need, and the Leafs would be all in.

Rielly-Fowler as a left-right pairing is very attractive, if Fowler were a RHD. Putting one or the other of them on their off-side is a lot less attractive but could easily happen if the price were right.

Lou knows the price. I wouldn't have a clue what he is willing to pay. I just hope it is not JVR.

 

[LeafFever]

not even your coach would agree. He doesn't even PK and is sheltered on the worst team in the league

How was Gardiner sheltered? That's the last thing he was.
And yes, Babcock would agree Gardiner is more talented.

 

[Morbo]

Nope, Fowler sucks. He's a #4 at best. In fact, based on the stats, and by stats I mean just shot suppression stats (I don't want anything to with that zone exits nonsense), he's probably just a #5. However, to prove that I have watched him, I'll say he has good skating, even though literally everyone has known that's his best asset ever since he was drafted.

Yep, no point in taking a player that is being carried by Kevin Bieksa.

Couldn't have said it better. He's also basically a PP specialist. Third pairing guy at best. Josh Manson is much better.

broken sarcasm meter now, great.

In all seriousness, we already have two left shot offensive-minded type dmen in Gardiner and Rielly. Unless we're moving one of those guys in a separate deal, I don't think trading for Fowler makes a lot of sense.

 

[Nithoniniel]

How was Gardiner sheltered? That's the last thing he was.
And yes, Babcock would agree Gardiner is more talented.

He probably just noticed that mike character saying it, and didn't verify whether it's true. If Gardiner is sheltered, so is half the league.

Wouldn't go so far as promise what Babcock would think though. I think he'd be a fan of Fowler.

 

[Liferleafer]

He probably just noticed that mike character saying it, and didn't verify whether it's true. If Gardiner is sheltered, so is half the league.

Wouldn't go so far as promise what Babcock would think though. I think he'd be a fan of Fowler.

Of course Babs would be a fan...any coach would. But it's at what cost. I would love to add Fowler to our D, He and Rielly could man the top pair, but any trade needs to work for both teams...and we don't have an excess of what the Ducks need.

 

[4thline]

No.

Fowler is a top-four LHD who is not enough of an improvement over Gardiner to make a significant improvement on the left side.

It doesn't make sense for the Leafs to send their #1 LW -- JVR -- over for him. If the price were lower the answer might be different.

If Fowler had the identical skills and abilities but we're an RHD he would absolutely fill a need, and the Leafs would be all in.

Rielly-Fowler as a left-right pairing is very attractive, if Fowler were a RHD. Putting one or the other of them on their off-side is a lot less attractive but could easily happen if the price were right.

Lou knows the price. I wouldn't have a clue what he is willing to pay. I just hope it is not JVR.

Great summary, though I think it undersells Fowler a bit. In the system I evaluate d-men I'd slot him as a 2-3. Can be part of an effective top pair with someone as good or better but shouldn't be counted on to carry it, or can carry a second pair. IMO Rielly and Gardiner both fit in their as well.