Eklund Rumor: Leafs in on Cam Fowler

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

Thank you guys for giving me stuff to read this lonnnnng summer. As a ducks fan I need material to keep my head from exploding. Carry on

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Absolutely.

At the same time, while they shouldn't limit their thinking to RHD only, they are also not really in a hurry to make a move. Your scenario should be there in case the search for a RHD solution proves futile.

No, they won't be in any hurry because I think this is going to be treated as a development year more than anything so going after someone like Shattenkirk who is a one year rental doesn't make a lot of sense. If they could get one of the RFA d-men then that's ideal for them but I don't like their odds there. Fowler with an extra year may entice them. Despres with a long-term deal may be better for the Leafs even though he's a lefty on the right side. But they may just be better off waiting for Shattenkirk to hit free agency and pick him up while seeing what they have in Zaitsev and Carrick although I don't think it's much for those two. And with all the money freeing up after this season, they can be bigger players next off-season.

 

[bansheebeat]

I'm sure Eklund finds it funny that people do nothing but trash him in the first 3 pages. And then continue debating his proposal for 19 pages in August.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

So Eklund is the only one reporting on the possible Fowler to Toronto deal no one else, Pretty sure if a deal was as close as he says and he did say e4 which means pretty close and others would be reporting it as well. We're talking Eklund here. Doubt Fowler gets moved until Lindholm or Rakell get signed here.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

So Eklund is the only one reporting on the possible Fowler to Toronto deal no one else, Pretty sure if a deal was as close as he says and he did say e4 which means pretty close and others would be reporting it as well. We're talking Eklund here. Doubt Fowler gets moved until Lindholm or Rakell get signed here.

I don't think it's like that. Both are RFA's with only an offer sheet route to go to and Anaheim's best bet is to keep their options open. If they look to make the move before the signings are made, they're not put in a position of pure salary dump before the trade is made.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I don't think it's like that. Both are RFA's with only an offer sheet route to go to and Anaheim's best bet is to keep their options open. If they look to make the move before the signings are made, they're not put in a position of pure salary dump before the trade is made.

You might be right, I know some Duck fans mentioned that Fowler might be moved once Rakell and Lindholm are resigned. But BM might be better to try and move Fowler now and maybe get a little cap relief here before he resigns both Lindholm and Rakell.

 

[Goose of Reason]

You might be right, I know some Duck fans mentioned that Fowler might be moved once Rakell and Lindholm are resigned. But BM might be better to try and move Fowler now and maybe get a little cap relief here before he resigns both Lindholm and Rakell.

The dominoes will start falling once those two get signed, it's holding up the entire offseason. We need to get our forward situation straightened out and BM won't know how much money he's able to allot until he knows for sure what the numbers will look like. Hopefully there's enough to get some cheap value signings but if not then Fowler will probably be gone. I'd like to keep him personally, a top 4 of Lindholm-Vatanen/Fowler-Manson would be great to have.

 

[Macallan18]

gardiner is not better lol

on almost every metric, Gardiner is better.

he may be the most underrated defenceman in the league.
look at this:
http://i0.wp.com/thehockeywriters.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Gardiner-Hero-Chart1.png

read this:
http://thehockeywriters.com/how-good-is-jake-gardiner/

He carried Phaneuf to the point that we could trade him.
So no, I would not trade Gardiner for Fowler straight up.

here one more for you:
"Over the past year, I have come to the conclusion that Jake Gardiner is elite defensively. Just take a quick look at his Corsi Against/60 Relative to Team since 2013: Gardiner is second, sandwiched between Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie both of the Calgary Flames"
https://frostyssports.wordpress.com/2016/03/04/jake-gardiner-the-nhls-most-underrated-defenceman/

 

[Macallan18]

Makes sense. The Leafs are weak on D. Have no legitimate top pairing options, at least until Rielly perhaps makes it there one day. Fowler would be their number one going into the year. I can see it happening.

lol, no. The leafs D is improving rapidly, with Reilly and Gardiner great d men on the left side. If Zaitsev pans out, that leaves a big hole ON THE RIGHT SIDE.

 

[Macallan18]

Probably, but you are still settling for a less than ideal solution of moving a LD to the right side.

As for value in a future trade, that kind of depends on the need of the future trading partner, doesn't it?

It depends on whether you believe handedness matters on defense. I think that the numbers support that it does. I think from your later post you do to.
Would love to see Reilly with a competant RHD.

 

[Jejune]

on almost every metric, Gardiner is better.

he may be the most underrated defenceman in the league.
look at this:
http://i0.wp.com/thehockeywriters.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Gardiner-Hero-Chart1.png

read this:
http://thehockeywriters.com/how-good-is-jake-gardiner/

He carried Phaneuf to the point that we could trade him.
So no, I would not trade Gardiner for Fowler straight up.

here one more for you:
"Over the past year, I have come to the conclusion that Jake Gardiner is elite defensively. Just take a quick look at his Corsi Against/60 Relative to Team since 2013: Gardiner is second, sandwiched between Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie both of the Calgary Flames"
https://frostyssports.wordpress.com/2016/03/04/jake-gardiner-the-nhls-most-underrated-defenceman/

I think everyone knows that Gardiner has always had fantastic stats, and has a lot of desirable skills for a defenseman. But the issue is, when you watch him play he is very soft in his own zone and makes a lot of silly plays. Unless he sorts this out (which I don't see happening at this point in his career), in my opinion he's simply less valuable than a player like Fowler.

 

[tomd]

I get the feeling that there are a growing number of hockey fans who don't even watch the games anymore; they just look at these stupid advanced stats and pretend its like baseball. I'll just stick with watching a player to form an opinion on him...old fashioned as that may seem.

 

[Macallan18]

I think everyone knows that Gardiner has always had fantastic stats, and has a lot of desirable skills for a defenseman. But the issue is, when you watch him play he is very soft in his own zone and makes a lot of silly plays. Unless he sorts this out (which I don't see happening at this point in his career), in my opinion he's simply less valuable than a player like Fowler.

Ok, I respectfully disagree, but we are all entitled to our opinions.
My real point, as stated earlier in the thread, was not a valuation of Reilly Gardiner and Fowler, but rather the position that with Reilly and Gardiner on the left side, we have no need of Fowler.
If, and that is a big if, IF Zaitsev works as a top four RHD, our real need is another RHD. Marincin is a spectacular third pairing LHD, and Carrick as a RHD may someday move up to top four, but what I think we really need TODAY is a decent RHD. Wanted to sign Demers so bad, and we wasted our money on scrubs like Martin and Polak.
Sigh.

 

[garyturner3]

I think everyone knows that Gardiner has always had fantastic stats, and has a lot of desirable skills for a defenseman. But the issue is, when you watch him play he is very soft in his own zone and makes a lot of silly plays. Unless he sorts this out (which I don't see happening at this point in his career), in my opinion he's simply less valuable than a player like Fowler.

I think that's the point one of those articles he posted is trying to make. People are just looking for that now and focusing on it and they're using that to poorly evaluate his game. Despite the fact he makes those silly plays regularly, his positives far outweigh the negatives on a nightly basis which is why his advanced stats are so great. When I watch Karlsson play, he plays extremely soft IMO and makes countless bonehead defensive plays, but he's still arguably the best d-man in the league and the advanced stats reflect that. The eye test is very misleading once you have a predetermined bias and unfortunately that bias for a lot of people is the logo on Gardiner's sweater combined with how crappy the Leafs are year in year out so they completely disregard the hard evidence that states how good Gardiner has become. In 15 years advanced stats are going to be looked at much differently.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I get the feeling that there are a growing number of hockey fans who don't even watch the games anymore; they just look at these stupid advanced stats and pretend its like baseball. I'll just stick with watching a player to form an opinion on him...old fashioned as that may seem.

Your feeling would probably be wrong. By and large, the guys I know that deal a lot with stats watch more hockey than most others.

We all watch the players, some just like to add additional information to counter-act the flawed nature of the eye test.

 

[Machinehead]

I get the feeling that there are a growing number of hockey fans who don't even watch the games anymore; they just look at these stupid advanced stats and pretend its like baseball. I'll just stick with watching a player to form an opinion on him...old fashioned as that may seem.

The idea that there's people who don't watch the games and just look at stats is totally made up. The idea that there's no room to form opinions is totally made up. Doughty has better stats than Keith but I think Keith is the better player, for example.

It's when a player posts extremely good or extremely bad numbers for a long period of time that people start making reads based on the numbers. Fowler is one of those players.

 

[Macallan18]

I get the feeling that there are a growing number of hockey fans who don't even watch the games anymore; they just look at these stupid advanced stats and pretend its like baseball. I'll just stick with watching a player to form an opinion on him...old fashioned as that may seem.

Been watching live and on tv regularly since the 60's. Advanced stats are still in their infancy for hockey, but I think they help illustrate things that are not necessarily evident.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

josh manson is better than jake gardiner

 

[KaseMeOutside]

The idea that there's people who don't watch the games and just look at stats is totally made up. The idea that there's no room to form opinions is totally made up. Doughty has better stats than Keith but I think Keith is the better player, for example.

It's when a player posts extremely good or extremely bad numbers for a long period of time that people start making reads based on the numbers. Fowler is one of those players.

again how are his numbers bad, nearly breaking even in FF/Corsi while starting 53% of his shifts in his end, most often against other team's top 6 forwards, with his most common partner being kevin bieksa? i don't think any sane person is calling fowler a no.1, he is a no.2 forced into a role above his head. When you consider everything how is basically breaking even terrible?

 

[Macallan18]

josh manson is better than jake gardiner

sure you didn't mean Marilyn Manson?

 

[garyturner3]

Been watching live and on tv regularly since the 60's. Advanced stats are still in their infancy for hockey, but I think they help illustrate things that are not necessarily evident.

Completely agree. Hockey's not as black and white as baseball so it's difficult for even the most avid fans to effectively judge whether a player had a good game or not if he didn't get on the scoresheet. We just think back to the four or five plays we remember him making that game and base our judgement off that. But in reality that player may have made 30 nice breakout passes out of the zone or quickly closed the gap on a winger a dozen times allowing your team to keep control of the puck for longer. That's why advanced stats are so valuable now and will only continue to take over.

 

[garyturner3]

Been watching live and on tv regularly since the 60's. Advanced stats are still in their infancy for hockey, but I think they help illustrate things that are not necessarily evident.

You constantly hear this phrase from announcers regarding stay at home d-men:

"You know he's had a good game when you don't notice him out there"

That just shows how difficult it is to measure value in hockey outside of points. Advanced stats are changing that and making that phrase a thing of the past. Whether my flawed human eyes notice the player or not, his value can at least be measured now with hard numbers.

 

[Exit Dose]

sure you didn't mean Marilyn Manson?

No, he meant Josh. He's an advanced stats darling! Better than most of the defensemen in the league. As a Ducks fan I would say that isn't really true and it would be evident if you watched him play, but I don't want to trigger anyone.

 

[aufheben]

again how are his numbers bad, nearly breaking even in FF/Corsi while starting 53% of his shifts in his end, most often against other team's top 6 forwards, with his most common partner being kevin bieksa? i don't think any sane person is calling fowler a no.1, he is a no.2 forced into a role above his head. When you consider everything how is basically breaking even terrible?

There's only so many ways to explain how being the worst on a team at something is bad.

Also I don't know where you got him starting over half of his shifts in the defensive zone, the only defensemen even somewhat close to that number (still 10% less) last year were Andy Greene and Adam Larsson.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

There's only so many ways to explain how being the worst on a team at something is bad.

Also I don't know where you got him starting over half of his shifts in the defensive zone, the only defensemen even somewhat close to that number (still 10% less) last year were Andy Greene and Adam Larsson.

Fowler has better corsi and fenwick than Ryan McDonagh

Ergo Fowler is better than Ryan McDonagh

I base my numbers off of hockey-reference.com