Eklund Rumor: Leafs in on Cam Fowler

[aufheben]

You're looking at oZO%. He started 33.5% in the defensive zone, which is 55th out of all defensemen who played 500+ minutes.

 

[pucku33]

You constantly hear this phrase from announcers regarding stay at home d-men:

"You know he's had a good game when you don't notice him out there"

That just shows how difficult it is to measure value in hockey outside of points. Advanced stats are changing that and making that phrase a thing of the past. Whether my flawed human eyes notice the player or not, his value can at least be measured now with hard numbers.

Those "hard numbers" indicate that Josh Manson is among the best players in the league.

 

[ps241]

Absolutely.

At the same time, while they shouldn't limit their thinking to RHD only, they are also not really in a hurry to make a move. Your scenario should be there in case the search for a RHD solution proves futile.

Ok Nithoniniel I am adding you to my list of posters that are level headed for other fan bases. Hard to find rational moderates.

 

[ps241]

So Eklund is the only one reporting on the possible Fowler to Toronto deal no one else, Pretty sure if a deal was as close as he says and he did say e4 which means pretty close and others would be reporting it as well. We're talking Eklund here. Doubt Fowler gets moved until Lindholm or Rakell get signed here.

In this case it was a match lit by a child but it did start a fire. It's the summer so why not indulge the rumour even if the source has zero credibility.

 

[leaflover]

I highly doubt Leaf management will be completing any significant trades anytime soon. First they need to take the time to assess the roster which due to considerable turnover is one big question mark at this time. They'll need to rotate rookies in and out of various slots and with various linemates and in differing roles. Find out where strengths and weaknesses lay and allow time for Babcock and company to address them and for the youngsters to respond to the coaching staffs recommendations. That is not a simple or time friendly task. An extremely positive expeditious timeframe to accomplish that is a full season, a practical and realistic timeframe is 2 full seasons. In situations where a couple rookies are being evaluated and slotted accordingly into a set lineup it's a relatively simple undertaking but such is not the case in the early stages of a major overhaul.
Major trades prior to an appropriate assessment period are as unlikely as the leaps and bounds up the standings being predicted here. Look for another bottom 5 finish and relatively minor moves this coming season and save yourselves the disappointment of great expectations. It may not be as much fun as a big move up the standings or front page trades but it's far more important to properly build the contender management claims is the only satisfactory result of this exercise.

 

[Ducks DVM]

The idea that there's people who don't watch the games and just look at stats is totally made up. The idea that there's no room to form opinions is totally made up. Doughty has better stats than Keith but I think Keith is the better player, for example.

It's when a player posts extremely good or extremely bad numbers for a long period of time that people start making reads based on the numbers. Fowler is one of those players.

You lose all credibility when you do this. You're essentially saying that advanced stats only matter when they match up with YOUR preconceived notions from watching a player. And you can't argue my position, because you're using a completely arbitrary criterion to determine when to believe the stats. There's no bright line to determine when someone's stats become relevant.

 

[ps241]

Been watching live and on tv regularly since the 60's. Advanced stats are still in their infancy for hockey, but I think they help illustrate things that are not necessarily evident.

We sound like we are a similar age. I agree with your post but would add imperfect as they are advanced stats are light years ahead of the eye test of 90% of the season ticket holders I know in Canada. older fans eye test in my market is very flawed but they are rarely in doubt!

Most stats guys on our board are rational and watch allot of hockey. Some even get paid for their advice. I now prefer my eye test plus all the stat mashing available. The "trust me I have been watching hockey for 50 years and Toby sucks cause he's small and Stu is awesome because he hits and blocks shots" narritive is now beyond mind numbing. One of too many examples of the old school Don Cherry eye testoholics

To each there own I guess.

 

[BigWilly]

You lose all credibility when you do this. You're essentially saying that advanced stats only matter when they match up with YOUR preconceived notions from watching a player. And you can't argue my position, because you're using a completely arbitrary criterion to determine when to believe the stats. There's no bright line to determine when someone's stats become relevant.

Nice.

 

[4thline]

You lose all credibility when you do this. You're essentially saying that advanced stats only matter when they match up with YOUR preconceived notions from watching a player. And you can't argue my position, because you're using a completely arbitrary criterion to determine when to believe the stats. There's no bright line to determine when someone's stats become relevant.

I disagree, advanced stats as they are publicly available are so crude and raw that they need a heavy amount of subjective insight into having any use. Corsi and such answer a single question "what happened- in terms of shot attempts". Truly evaluating players takes moving beyond that and looking into the "why"
-> transition play for and against
-> offensive play- both in zone time generation and conversion effectiveness
-> defensive play- passive shot suppression, high danger denial, active puck retrieval etc.

I believe it was this thread that Nithoniniel made a fantastic point about Gardiner similar to the above.

 

[Machinehead]

You lose all credibility when you do this. You're essentially saying that advanced stats only matter when they match up with YOUR preconceived notions from watching a player. And you can't argue my position, because you're using a completely arbitrary criterion to determine when to believe the stats. There's no bright line to determine when someone's stats become relevant.

It is slightly subjective, but I think "his entire career" has passed the point of a relevant sample size.

 

[Machinehead]

Fowler has better corsi and fenwick than Ryan McDonagh

Ergo Fowler is better than Ryan McDonagh

I base my numbers off of hockey-reference.com

Sure if you throw all context out the window which is something you like to complain about.

Regardless, I've said a couple of times that I think McDonagh is overrated, so I don't know what you're trying to accomplish here.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Been watching live and on tv regularly since the 60's. Advanced stats are still in their infancy for hockey, but I think they help illustrate things that are not necessarily evident.

Nah, they're simply the shiny new toy used by people too lazy to really evaluate a player...

But then, Franson won't complain...

 

[Kelly]

Nah, they're simply the shiny new toy used by people too lazy to really evaluate a player...

But then, Franson won't complain...

If anything, people like you are the lazy ones.

 

[Ducks DVM]

It is slightly subjective, but I think "his entire career" has passed the point of a relevant sample size.

It's entirely subjective, it's not his entire career, and when you say stats only matter when you say they do (Doughty vs Keith) then you've already outed yourself as not really believing in the stats but are instead just using them when it's convenient to back your personal opinion.

That genie doesn't get put back in the bottle because you say that "this case is different because I say it's achieved statistical relevance".

 

[Brock Radunske]

I'd love to add Fowler but he's a top 4 puck-moving LHD, which we already have 2 of and it wouldn't be wise to trade jvr for him as we have no current or near-future top line left wingers

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Sure if you throw all context out the window which is something you like to complain about.

Regardless, I've said a couple of times that I think McDonagh is overrated, so I don't know what you're trying to accomplish here.

So context is OK with McDonagh but not Fowler? I see people rate McDonagh in their top 20's all the time.

Just like if we look at Josh Manson's corsi without any context, if we based it upon that, then I could argue he's worth a young first line winger or top prospect, which we know he's not, because he benefited playing with Hampus Lindholm

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'd love to add Fowler but he's a top 4 puck-moving LHD, which we already have 2 of and it wouldn't be wise to trade jvr for him as we have no current or near-future top line left wingers

I disagree. They would be a better team with a trade like that. Wingers really just aren't that critical for overall team success especially compared to PMD's.

 

[gorangers0525]

So context is OK with McDonagh but not Fowler? I see people rate McDonagh in their top 20's all the time.

Just like if we look at Josh Manson's corsi without any context, if we based it upon that, then I could argue he's worth a young first line winger or top prospect, which we know he's not, because he benefited playing with Hampus Lindholm

Context matters for both of them. With context, Fowler gets a **** ton worse, but continue to ignore that. Nobody even looks at raw corsi, because context does matter....a lot. But continue thinking it's "oh, corsi under 50%! He sucks!!!!" if it makes you feel better.

 

[buttman*]

I disagree. They would be a better team with a trade like that. Wingers really just aren't that critical for overall team success especially compared to PMD's.

How many PMD? A whole team of them? You need balance. Look at Pitt. You put 5 guys on the ice. Not 5 PMD -- two wingers. With Reilly and Gardiner he's not a need in Toronto and none of those guys are playing RD or bottom pairing. Pretty logical if you allow it to be.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Ducks fans are upset by what Leafs fans are offering for their quality d-men.
They are right to be upset but they need to understand that the Leafs hold all the power.
Anaheim is not a cap team and won't be able to sign Lindholm and Rakell without trading away a lot of salary plus their window of opportunity is beginning to close.
Boudreau has already lost his job and now Bob Murray is feeling the heat.
Toronto's fan base doesn't require any more moves be made other than signing a cheap backup.
They will be happy to spend this season watching their highly skilled rookies find their way this year.
JVR is just what the Ducks need according to their own GM but he won't come cheap.
The Leafs can afford to demand Lindholm or Vatanen in any JVR trade because they don't really want to trade him.
Are the Leafs interested in Fowler for JVR?
Not at all.
They can afford to wait for a desperate Duck's GM to come calling because in this poker game the Leafs hold all the cards.

 

[Machinehead]

So context is OK with McDonagh but not Fowler? I see people rate McDonagh in their top 20's all the time.

Just like if we look at Josh Manson's corsi without any context, if we based it upon that, then I could argue he's worth a young first line winger or top prospect, which we know he's not, because he benefited playing with Hampus Lindholm

And like I said a bunch of pages ago, those who are critical of Fowler could not possibly apply any more context. We've gone through everything.

 

[Machinehead]

It's entirely subjective, it's not his entire career, and when you say stats only matter when you say they do (Doughty vs Keith) then you've already outed yourself as not really believing in the stats but are instead just using them when it's convenient to back your personal opinion.

That genie doesn't get put back in the bottle because you say that "this case is different because I say it's achieved statistical relevance".

So by your logic if one team has 83 points and another has 82 points, I can form a personal opinion as to which team is better, but I don't get to decide that a team with 56 points is bad and a team with 124 points is good?

 

[Paul4587]

It is slightly subjective, but I think "his entire career" has passed the point of a relevant sample size.

Except 2011-12 according to the numbers.

Strangely that was the year he struggled the most (he had to play the right side which he wasn't good at) and looked way in over his head as a 19-20 year old on the top pairing.

 

[lindholmie]

Ducks fans are upset by what Leafs fans are offering for their quality d-men.
They are right to be upset but they need to understand that the Leafs hold all the power.
Anaheim is not a cap team and won't be able to sign Lindholm and Rakell without trading away a lot of salary plus their window of opportunity is beginning to close.
Boudreau has already lost his job and now Bob Murray is feeling the heat.
Toronto's fan base doesn't require any more moves be made other than signing a cheap backup.
They will be happy to spend this season watching their highly skilled rookies find their way this year.
JVR is just what the Ducks need according to their own GM but he won't come cheap.
The Leafs can afford to demand Lindholm or Vatanen in any JVR trade because they don't really want to trade him.
Are the Leafs interested in Fowler for JVR?
Not at all.
They can afford to wait for a desperate Duck's GM to come calling because in this poker game the Leafs hold all the cards.

Lmaoo it's not that serious. People kept saying the same thing about vatanen and he already re-signed. Lindholm, fowler and vatanen combined can make less than 15 million. If the ducks had to make a trade, Toronto wouldn't be the only team Calling. You see how much young defensemen are going for? The ducks were suppose to get lesser value for Freddy because they had to trade one of him and Gibson yet he returned way more than some Toronto fans thought.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I'd love to add Fowler but he's a top 4 puck-moving LHD, which we already have 2 of and it wouldn't be wise to trade jvr for him as we have no current or near-future top line left wingers

People make to big of a deal about LHD or RHD we just need to upgrade the blue line