Confirmed with Link: Leafs have acquired Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari & Josh Pillar in a three-team trade with STL and MIN

[Mess]

NHL 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings

Our projections and probabilities page is where you will find each team’s projected point total, probability of making the playoffs and more

theathletic.com

Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team’s projected point total, its probability of making the playoffs, and its odds of advancing to each subsequent round, including winning the Stanley Cup.

The projections are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, which factors in each team’s projected strength, current health, and their strength of schedule (which includes opponent strength, venue and rest). Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA) and can be found at the bottom of the article, along with a link to team depth charts containing projected GSVA values for each player. You can read more about GSVA and the model here.

This page will be updated each morning. Click to expand any chart for a larger view.

All projections and probabilities are rounded to the nearest whole number.

MoneyPuck has slightly higher #'s for the Leafs after the trade that they just updated this afternoon. 58.5% to make round #2 and 9.8% to win the Cup.

 

[666]

ROR was born in Clinton Ontario, that's all you need to know.

 

[Bomber0104]

ROR was born in Clinton Ontario, that's all you need to know.

Why did I think he was from Lucan all this time?

 

[666]

Why did I think he was from Lucan all this time?

His Wikipedia page says Varna county. Either way it's Letterkenny.

 

[The Masters]

great trade

go big or go home

 

[Tak7]

CJ on the CJ show:

* Leafs interest in ROR goes back a few months, fueling rumors.​

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* Suggests Leafs interest goes back to early December​

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* Things heated up over past few days, after Blues moved Tarasenko.​

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* Contrary to other reports, once Leafs get Murray off LTIR, doesn't think Leafs have much more cap space left for other moves. Have spent most of their available draft capital.​

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* Leafs aren't done - very actively in the market for upgrades. Because they are so close to cap, has to be money-in = money-out type of deal. Not much flexibility otherwise.​

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* Thinks Leafs had some interest in both Kane & Meier, but prioritized ROR and Acciari to fill identified needs.​

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* Believes this may be a deadline that becomes a buyer's market - those that wait until close to deadline, may see prices fall.​

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* Says Leafs weren't willing to wait. ROR very specific piece that the Leafs wanted. Not another player like him available at this deadline.​

Center / Winger versatility is something Keefe likes, especially with how he likes to tweak & blend lines.​

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* Leafs now have 5 centers (AM, JT, ROR, Kampf, Acciari) that are all 53% or better on faceoffs. Both ROR and Acciari can kill penalties too.​

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* Think Keefe will re-attempt to create a shutdown third line with ROR. Ponders using Kampf as shutdown winger with ROR on the road.​

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* Think Leafs will continue to consider everything for improvement - says Leafs are all-in. Not shutting phones down and putting their feet up now that they've made a big swing.​

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* Leafs have added 2 more UFAs. Currently one of the teams with the most expiring contracts over next 2 years. Think it's the best time for team to go all-in and then re-evaluate later.​

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* Impressed that Leafs, currently 5th in league in P%, have added 2 big pieces without moving anyone off active roster. Move allows other pieces to get moved into proper slots in the lineup.​

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* Calls ROR a difference maker. Points out that it's not the first time ROR has been traded either - has experience in this situation.​

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* Move puts pressure on Julien Brisebois / Tampa Bay to respond. Calls Tampa one of the most creative cap teams in the league, and expects them to make an upgrade. Speculates on Tampa upgrading blueline - McDonaugh no longer there, Hedman has taken a step back.​

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* Final 25 games now matter a lot for Leafs - not only to secure home ice vs Tampa, but to see how these new pieces slot in alongside rest of the roster. Expects both ROR and Acciari to play against Montreal on Saturday night.​

 

[Anthrax442]

Im looking forward to watch Acciari. Looks like under the radar great addition to the bottom 6

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I loved one of the comments on Twitter..."ROR arrives in a Canadian tuxedo" . Let's get to work boys! No more f'n around.

 

[JKG33]

The forward group is about as close as you can get to top end contender, I've been begging for a ROR type forward forever. This completely changes the dynamic, for the first time this group finally has a true selke level center. He might not be putting up the points he used to (that'll change on this team I'm sure), but he's the type of player that you use to dictate matchups and win playoff hockey. And not only that, but he's a proven winner. He might be able to teach this group of losers what it takes to win. I've had enough of Dubas bringing in perennial losers (Tavares, Giordano, Foligno) as leaders for this group.

However I'm still predicting a 1st round exit. This team lacks a true #1D that cup winners have, and I don't see how anyone can be comfortable with a Samsonov/Murray tandem heading into the playoffs.

 

[SoftDumpNtheCorner88]

Don't understand why Dubas holds responsibility if we fail again.

This GM has filled out cupboards wil actual prospects in later rounds and have built a pretty solid line up, and now we actually have playoff grit that we needed, without giving up our ripe blue chippers.

At what point can the GM do whatever he can to put a roster that should eat teams alive but yet we let the COACH off the hook for not having them play to their potential when it matters most.

If Keefe fails again with this roster he should be the first guy out before DUBAS.

How often year after year do we say "this team looks good on paper" that's the GMs job. The coach is suppose to utilize them properly.

 

[hockeywiz542]

I loved one of the comments on Twitter..."ROR arrives in a Canadian tuxedo" . Let's get to work boys! No more f'n around.

 

[LaPlante94]

O’Reilly has never been a particularly good skater, but his effort level and anticipation allow him to be very effective. Skating in a skills competition isn’t the same as hunting a loose puck or back checking in a game.

I’ve said for a long time that it would hard to actually acquire an upgrade on Kampf and push him to the 4th line, but O’Reilly does exactly that. He may no longer be the #1 center he once was, but he’s still a good #2.

People shouldn’t sleep on Acciari either. He’s a very good addition.

I still think we need a better 2nd line LWer and an upgrade on defense, but this trade addresses a lot of issues with not only the talent of the bottom 6, but the style as well.

This was an interesting excellent trade.

Still got Kerfoot and Holl to move if they want to upgrade in those areas you mentioned. Only 2 who would get us anything of use because of their cap and because Timmins has played well enough to make Holl expandable. I just don't know who we could possibly target. Maybe Pulj from Edmonton but I feel like Edmonton for some reason is asking a stupid price for him even though he hasn't exactly done much to ask for that. Might have a trade lined up for Karlsson too and I'd imagine he'd be one of the pieces. I think a package of Kerfoot, Holl and Robertson should get you a pretty good player but salary is always the tricky part and teams wanting draft picks. Maybe the Patty Kane price has declined and they'd take something like that and retain 50% of his salary. I wanted Meier and Barbashev or Chychrun but I doubt that's happening now.

 

[Leafs87]

Don't understand why Dubas holds responsibility if we fail again.

This GM has filled out cupboards wil actual prospects in later rounds and have built a pretty solid line up, and now we actually have playoff grit that we needed, without giving up our ripe blue chippers.

At what point can the GM do whatever he can to put a roster that should eat teams alive but yet we let the COACH off the hook for not having them play to their potential when it matters most.

If Keefe fails again with this roster he should be the first guy out before DUBAS.

How often year after year do we say "this team looks good on paper" that's the GMs job. The coach is suppose to utilize them properly.

The teams look good on paper for the regular season for a while for sure. That being said the D core is too small and green, while the forwards don’t play a playoff style game. I’d say he’s on the way to building a contender but he went in on a rental and is going in with a team that has quite a few key gaps again. Ultimately I feel like this team could win, but they’re definitely not favourites, and his runway is over this offseason as Matthews requires and extension and all signs point to them not willing to give him a blank cheque and go in with a depthless team, and everyone not over the hill refusing to take discounts, cause Matthews is pinching everything he could from this team. I don’t know if he’ll be around to make the decision on Matthews next contract but this year could potentially be his last year here.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Essentially rolling it back 4 years ago when you were three centers deep but decided to screw that up. Only difference being, you paid a premium to acquire the center back versus giving the asset away for pennies.

Dubas is a dumpster fire.

So it was a good AND a bad trade?

how are these numbers calculated?

NHL 23 sim?

 

[rojac]

Im looking forward to watch Acciari. Looks like under the radar great addition to the bottom 6

I find it a little funny that virtually every analysis I;ve seen of the trade calls Acciari an under-the-radar great addition. It seems that, in fact, he's on everyone's radar.

 

[MAB1]

The forward group is about as close as you can get to top end contender, I've been begging for a ROR type forward forever. This completely changes the dynamic, for the first time this group finally has a true selke level center. He might not be putting up the points he used to (that'll change on this team I'm sure), but he's the type of player that you use to dictate matchups and win playoff hockey. And not only that, but he's a proven winner. He might be able to teach this group of losers what it takes to win. I've had enough of Dubas bringing in perennial losers (Tavares, Giordano, Foligno) as leaders for this group.

However I'm still predicting a 1st round exit. This team lacks a true #1D that cup winners have, and I don't see how anyone can be comfortable with a Samsonov/Murray tandem heading into the playoffs.

What true 1D did the 2017 Penguins have?

The difference between playoff Rielly and playoff Letang or Carlson isn't drastic at all. He's got a higher playoff ppg than Carlson, Letang.

 

[Socreges]

Father woke me up last night screaming about this! He said this is it.
This is the year!!! So so so excited!!!!!

 

[ACC1224]

how are these numbers calculated?

NHL 23 sim?

Don’t worry about, they’re meaningless

 

[JKG33]

What true 1D did the 2017 Penguins have?

The difference between playoff Rielly and playoff Letang or Carlson isn't drastic at all. He's got a higher playoff ppg than Carlson, Letang.

Congrats you found the one exception. They also had prime Crosby and Malkin putting the team on their backs. When have the Leafs stars ever done that?

As for the D... Letang, Carlson, Makar, Hedman, Pietrangelo, Doughty, Keith, Chara (in no order) were all significantly better than Rielly is now when they won their cups.

 

[MAB1]

Congrats you found the one exception. They also had prime Crosby and Malkin putting the team on their backs. When have the Leafs stars ever done that?

As for the D... Letang, Carlson, Makar, Hedman, Pietrangelo, Doughty, Keith, Chara (in no order) were all significantly better than Rielly is now when they won their cups.

1. Bolded have been worse in the playoffs compared to Rielly. The eye test, stats, and analytics show this. Their teams were more successful, but they were not better than Rielly.

2. Exception? That's 3 of the last 7 winners? Not to mention first year Vegas making the finals with their rag-tag group pre -AP.

The Leafs are a top 5 team in GA and have been top 10 for 2 of the last 3 years. Rielly is a top 20-30 D-man in the NHL. He is one of the few players in the NHL with a higher playoff ppg than regular season ppg.

 

[LeafSteel]

Father woke me up last night screaming about this! He said this is it.
This is the year!!! So so so excited!!!!!

Is your dad ever right?

Asking for a fanbase, er I mean for a friend……

 

[JKG33]

1. Bolded have been worse in the playoffs compared to Rielly. The eye test, stats, and analytics show this. Their teams were more successful, but they were not better than Rielly.

2. Exception? That's 3 of the last winners? Not to mention first year Vegas making the finals with their rag-tag group pre -AP.

1. I have no idea how the eye test suggests that.

2. Your one exception was Pens with an injured Letang. Vegas making the finals to win only 1 game doesn't help your argument.

 

[MAB1]

1. I have no idea how the eye test suggests that.

2. Your one exception was Pens with an injured Letang. Vegas making the finals to win only 1 game doesn't help your argument.

You're moving goalposts now, you initially said this team won't be able to win a round because of their 1D.

Now making the cup finals as an example of a team without a "true 1D" isn't good enough for you.

Make up your mind.

 

[crump]

Why did I think he was from Lucan all this time?

ROR was born in Clinton Ontario, that's all you need to know.

I used to drive through both on HWY 4 twice week years ago.

 

[JKG33]

You're moving goalposts now, you initially said this team won't be able to win a round because of their 1D.

Now making the cup finals as an example of a team without a "true 1D" isn't good enough for you.

Make up your mind.

I said "lacks a true #1D that cup winners have" and then proceeded to compare them to cup winning teams. Please explain where and how the goalposts moved.