Proposal: Leafs/ducks

[Spazkat]

. But don't kid yourself, a 1st line winger and a top ten pick IS a respectable offer for an unsigned RFA. I don't care what other posters here think, in the real word that isn't a laughable offer, and is actually a good basis. It just doesn't make any sense for Anaheim.

This makes is sound like all RFA's are equivalent, when that's not the case. Assuming equivalent player talent, arbitration eligible RFA's are generally worth less than those that aren't (Lindholm is not arb eligible yet). Wingers are worth less than centers /top pairing D, with 1D or 1D potential usually being the top of the pack.

1D are rarely traded at all, and when they are it's usually for an equally talented center (or a package around such), not a winger and spare change.

*side note: is it just me or are half the posts on page 1 or the trade forum about trying to dump either JVR or Kapanen?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

1st - No Lindholm is not significantly better than Rielly at the moment, better? Yes, but provide some sort of proof that he's significantly better because that's flat out false. I don't want to hear your uninformed opinion either, some factual evidence/stats would be nice.

I should just save the Lindholm info to Google Drive or something as often as I have to go back in my history to get it again.

In 2015-16, among D with 40+ minutes, Lindholm was:

3rd in CORSI REL behind only Karlsson and Hedman.

4th in raw CF% behind 3 Kings.

All while getting less than 50% offensive zone starts.

The only thing Lindholm didn't do last year was produce points. He just so happened to have a 982 PDO. Lends you to believe that might fix itself.

Rielly had a negative CORSI REL, good for 125th. He also had a low PDO, so the points should naturally increase next year too. But not the shots. Rielly is still potential.

 

[CreeksideStrangler]

not going to get lindholm jax/rainman. not for jvr/blah/blah/2nd. lets just draft another dman next year and keep this rebuild going. would have to trade a forward at a similar age which we are not willing to do atm

 

[kihei]

No thank you. Your valuation of Lindholm is way off.

I'm not gonna say he's worth Rielly with a significant +. I think that Rielly is very close to Lindholm in relative value to their teams.

So just imagine how much you would want for Rielly. Then add a bit, and you have Lindholm.

Sane approach.

 

[GhostOfWildWing]

Nylander
JVR

for

Lindholm
Stoner

Ducks:

- Save about 4-5M depending what Lindholm is seeking
- Make their Top9 look light years better than what it otherwise would be this year (but, Nylander and JVR can still be core pieces going forward)

JVR/Getz/Perry
Rakell/Nylander/Silf
Cogs/Kesler/Wagner (or Garbutt if he can switch to RW)


Leafs:

- Blueline becomes a real strength and one of the better young units in the league
- Have lots of young F talent to cover for the losses
- Stoner isn't a bad 6/7 at all, just overpaid.

Of course, many reasons this is unrealistic:

- Leafs don't want to move Nylander at all.
- Ducks likely won't include a dump in a Lindholm deal, de-valuing him
- Leafs would then have to move some cap around i think

 

[Kelly]

I should just save the Lindholm info to Google Drive or something as often as I have to go back in my history to get it again.

In 2015-16, among D with 40+ minutes, Lindholm was:

3rd in CORSI REL behind only Karlsson and Hedman.

4th in raw CF% behind 3 Kings.

All while getting less than 50% offensive zone starts.

The only thing Lindholm didn't do last year was produce points. He just so happened to have a 982 PDO. Lends you to believe that might fix itself.

Rielly had a negative CORSI REL, good for 125th. He also had a low PDO, so the points should naturally increase next year too. But not the shots. Rielly is still potential.

Yeah, like I said Lindholm is the better defensive player, Rielly is better offensively. I don't see how this proves Lindholm is a significantly better player than Rielly though, especially considering which team each players play for. Rielly was 6th in D for CorsiRelQoC, he faced top competition every night skating beside Marincin/Hunwick, and threw up 38 points to boot. Also you bring up offensive zone starts, Rielly was also under 50%, and also under Lindholm by a tad. I'm just not buying Lindholm's impressive possession stats makes him a much better player than Rielly. Zero chance Lindholm would post these same stats where Rielly played last year. You have to take that into consideration when evaluating these two players, context is important. Lindholm has been the better player since coming into the league, and had a more successful season last year, but these players are close, and definitely in the same echelon of top young defenseman. Clear edge to Lindholm, but significantly better? No.

Also, you can kiss Lindholm's nice possession stats goodbye next year, it's going to be interesting to watch how the rehiring of Carlyle is going to effect some of Anaheims players. I would bet he isn't close to third in corsirel next year.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Rielly was 6th in D for CorsiRelQoC, he faced top competition every night skating beside Marincin/Hunwick, and threw up 38 points to boot.

Let me preface this by saying that I'm not a big fan of the QoC numbers for all of the standard reasons.

Rielly actually played the toughest even strength minutes in the league by +/-, but it's not like Lindholm was particularly sheltered either. Using the same +/- QoC, he was in the same neighborhood as names like Karlsson, Hedman, Ekblad, Subban, Stralman, Trouba, OEL, Suter, Tanev, etc. With stats like this where the methodology is not what I prefer, I tend to use them as tiebreakers more than anything else, but it's opinion. Hard to be wrong.

Also you bring up offensive zone starts, Rielly was also under 50%, and also under Lindholm by a tad.

Yeah, I C+P'd a previous post that had zone starts in it. They're not going to have a huge impact outside of the real outliers anyway, but I wouldn't give either a significant advantage here, as they're both in the minimal impact areas.

I'm just not buying Lindholm's impressive possession stats makes him a much better player than Rielly. Zero chance Lindholm would post these same stats where Rielly played last year. You have to take that into consideration when evaluating these two players, context is important. Lindholm has been the better player since coming into the league, and had a more successful season last year, but these players are close, and definitely in the same echelon of top young defenseman. Clear edge to Lindholm, but significantly better? No.

Context doesn't only matter, it's vital. It's not enough to be able to quote a number, you have to understand how it's determined and then why that has value. Coaching matters. Systems matter. All of that is true.

At the end of the day, though, Lindholm was better overall last year by the best measures we currently have available to the public. If you don't think it was a significant difference, that's totally fine. I do, but it's semantics.

Either way, I'm glad to see you're not one of the people who don't understand the way Lindholm impacted the game last year. They're all too common and that's why I have a couple of short posts I keep copying.

 

[lindholmie]

hows is rielly better offensively when they have the same exact points?

 

[go4hockey]

I think you might be undervaluing JVR a bit here as his skill set compared to cap it for the next two years is extremely valuable to a team with an internal budget... That and a top 10 pick is pretty valuable. That being said I didn't realize Lindholm is already as good as your saying so hopefully didn't offend any duck fans as it wasn't my intentions at all to undervalue him.

Have the ducks signed him? Can they even with their budget?

Adding a player like Rielly obviously makes no sense for either team as Toronto needs more D and ducks needs cap space. Would retaining some of JVR salary get it closer? Or just not moving Lindholm period?

You have undervalued how hard it is to find a #1 defenseman. If they are ever moved the price will surely make you cry. I don't think the Leafs could put together a package to land him without hammering the young talent they are building with.

 

[Kelly]

hows is rielly better offensively when they have the same exact points?

The excuse I'm gonna use is that Lindholm played more PP time, on a better PP, and also had more PP points, but still failed to outscore Rielly.

Rielly 5v5 p/60 = 1.00
Lindholm 5v5 p/60 = 0.49

I also think just watching the players, Rielly is a more elusive skater, and has a dynamic of offense that Lindholm doesn't. But that could be the homer in me talking.

 

[Leon Draisaitl]

Shoulda kept reading.. Woulda noticed the top 10 draft pick and the 3+mill salary dump. Again I didn't realize he was so valuable as only seen him in small doses and career high 28 points. Though I'd assume a top line LW a top 10 pick and the salary dump has more value then you give it credit. Especially to internal cap teams that are in win now mode. I could be mistaken though

????

 

[Hoooch]

The excuse I'm gonna use is that Lindholm played more PP time, on a better PP, and also had more PP points, but still failed to outscore Rielly.

Rielly 5v5 p/60 = 1.00
Lindholm 5v5 p/60 = 0.49

I also think just watching the players, Rielly is a more elusive skater, and has a dynamic of offense that Lindholm doesn't. But that could be the homer in me talking.

You can't compare a first pair vs second pair PP defenseman. Fowler and Vatanen anchored the first pairing and Lindholm played with Bieksa.

 

[Kelly]

You can't compare a first pair vs second pair PP defenseman. Fowler and Vatanen anchored the first pairing and Lindholm played with Bieksa.

Rielly played second pairing as well for the majority of the year. Babcock runs 4f/1d powerplays, and Phaneuf then Gardiner got most of the minutes. With better players to work with on the PP next year (assuming the young guys work out) and an increased role I would bet on Rielly reaching 45 points.

Though, my main point was he outscored him 5v5.

 

[buttman*]

Larsson got Hall.
Larsson << Lindholm.
Hall >> JVR.

Basically Lindholm is worth a lot.

Not that I think this trade is fair but using past trades of teams that got robbed doesn't make it the market value.

 

[The Duck Knight]

You can't compare a first pair vs second pair PP defenseman. Fowler and Vatanen anchored the first pairing and Lindholm played with Bieksa.

Lindholm played with Bieksa for about 10 games at the start of the season and then Manson pretty much the rest of the way. Fowler was with Bieksa and Vatanen got whoever was left on the 3rd pair. Once Manson got hurt in the playoffs Vatanen got moved up with Lindholm.

Edit: I misread and now realize you were talking about strictly PP units. If it's fair to point out how much better of a PP Lindholm got to benefit from then it also needs be said that his ES numbers definitely took a hit from the Ducks abysmal 5-on-5 scoring too. They were all time bad the first 25-30 games of the season and even after that did quite a bit of scoring on the PP as opposed to at even strength.

 

[UnicornONtheCOBB]

No chance you get Linholm without giving up one of Marner, Reilly, or Matthews IMO. And there would have to be + ons for Reilly and a bigger add on for Marner. I wouldn't move Lindholm for Matthews straight up either. Lindholm is a top pairing D already and to me he's very close to becoming a #1 D. I like Matthews, I like Marner, and I like Reilly, heck I even like Nylander and JVR, I just feel Lindholm has more value than any of those guys. Toronto has some really nice pieces coming, I wouldn't be looking to overpay for anyone right now, not at the cost of some of those young, top end pieces. JVR might make sense to move in the right deal, but he isn't going to get you a D like Lindholm.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

To the ducks: JVR , 2017 1st (conditioned leafs didn't win lottery becomes 2018 1st if they do)

To the leafs : Lindholm , 2017 1st (conditioned on receiving leafs pick.swap 18 if not) +salary dump (likely stoner as bieksa would waive for Toronto)


Reasoning.. Ducks need cap space and a top line LW. JVR is cheap and with his size and style will be a perfect fit there for them. Plus dumping stoner gives them cap space for rackall or whatever they need it for. Plus a significant upgrade in 1st round pick 5-16th instead of 25-30

Toronto needs high end D potential and Lindholm has top pairing potential. Losing JVR creates a hole but they aren't competing for the next couple years so losing him isn't really changing anything.

I think this can address both teams needs though stuff likely needed to be added as I don't think either team will like it but could something be worked out or is Lindholm too valuable to Anaheim to consider moving him? I know their D depth is insanely good

lindholm does not have top pairing potential he is already a bonafide top pair dman and some would argue he's a no.1

there is only 1 team that won't like it, and that's the ducks

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Fair enough... Out of curiosity what type of package would you consider acceptable ? Not from Toronto but anytime that you'd consider fair value that's fits in the ducks budget ? Just trying to get an idea of what his value is perceived to be is all

there is nothing acceptable

 

[KaseMeOutside]

The best thing the Ducks could do here is trade Hampus while his value is high.

JVR (top line winger for next 2 seasons at 4.25M, maybe longer) + Kapanen (Potential top line winger, full ELC) + The highest of their 2nd's next year (31-35 Pick)

best thing the ducks could do is keep their best defensemen who substantially raises every single player on his team's possession numbers.

The excuse I'm gonna use is that Lindholm played more PP time, on a better PP, and also had more PP points, but still failed to outscore Rielly.

Rielly 5v5 p/60 = 1.00
Lindholm 5v5 p/60 = 0.49

I also think just watching the players, Rielly is a more elusive skater, and has a dynamic of offense that Lindholm doesn't. But that could be the homer in me talking.

Lindholm was also insanely unluckily when you consider the amount of shots Anaheim generated while he was on the ice, versus having to defend.

 

[Ducks in a row]

Lindholm is former 6th overall pick coming off his 3rd NHL season (ELC) and he is our best overall defenseman at the age of 22. We value him hugely and don't want to trade him. Trading him would be a huge blow to our blueline not just in the present but future as well.

To the ducks: JVR , 2017 1st (conditioned leafs didn't win lottery becomes 2018 1st if they do)

To the leafs : Lindholm , 2017 1st (conditioned on receiving leafs pick.swap 18 if not) +salary dump (likely stoner as bieksa would waive for Toronto)


Reasoning.. Ducks need cap space and a top line LW. JVR is cheap and with his size and style will be a perfect fit there for them. Plus dumping stoner gives them cap space for rackall or whatever they need it for. Plus a significant upgrade in 1st round pick 5-16th instead of 25-30

Toronto needs high end D potential and Lindholm has top pairing potential. Losing JVR creates a hole but they aren't competing for the next couple years so losing him isn't really changing anything.

I think this can address both teams needs though stuff likely needed to be added as I don't think either team will like it but could something be worked out or is Lindholm too valuable to Anaheim to consider moving him? I know their D depth is insanely good

No way in hell

I think you might be undervaluing JVR a bit here as his skill set compared to cap it for the next two years is extremely valuable to a team with an internal budget... That and a top 10 pick is pretty valuable. That being said I didn't realize Lindholm is already as good as your saying so hopefully didn't offend any duck fans as it wasn't my intentions at all to undervalue him.

Adding a player like Rielly obviously makes no sense for either team as Toronto needs more D and ducks needs cap space. Would retaining some of JVR salary get it closer? Or just not moving Lindholm period?

Maple Leafs with Lindholm become a better team so who knows how that effects a 1st round pick regardless we are a win now team a pick is nice and all but it isn't the most important to us. JVR is UFA after two seasons we won't be signing him because of salary demands. We are not trading a huge piece like Lindholm for that not even with JVR retained at 50% we are keeping Lindholm.

Shoulda kept reading.. Woulda noticed the top 10 draft pick and the 3+mill salary dump. Again I didn't realize he was so valuable as only seen him in small doses and career high 28 points. Though I'd assume a top line LW a top 10 pick and the salary dump has more value then you give it credit. Especially to internal cap teams that are in win now mode. I could be mistaken though

Lindholm career high isn't 28 points that is his single season low following are his offensive production from his seasons

Lindholm regular seasons
2013-14 78 games 6 goals 24 assists 30 points
2014-15 78 games 7 goals 27 assists 34 points
2015-16 80 games 10 goals 18 assists 28 points

So this past season he had the fewest amount of points but he had the most amount of goals.

The best thing the Ducks could do here is trade Hampus while his value is high.

JVR (top line winger for next 2 seasons at 4.25M, maybe longer) + Kapanen (Potential top line winger, full ELC) + The highest of their 2nd's next year (31-35 Pick)

That is a joke

Nylander
JVR

for

Lindholm
Stoner

Ducks:

- Save about 4-5M depending what Lindholm is seeking
- Make their Top9 look light years better than what it otherwise would be this year (but, Nylander and JVR can still be core pieces going forward)

JVR/Getz/Perry
Rakell/Nylander/Silf
Cogs/Kesler/Wagner (or Garbutt if he can switch to RW)


Leafs:

- Blueline becomes a real strength and one of the better young units in the league
- Have lots of young F talent to cover for the losses
- Stoner isn't a bad 6/7 at all, just overpaid.

Of course, many reasons this is unrealistic:

- Leafs don't want to move Nylander at all.
- Ducks likely won't include a dump in a Lindholm deal, de-valuing him
- Leafs would then have to move some cap around i think

Not interested don't want to trade Lindholm not even if we dump Stoner and get Nylander along with JVR. Lindholm is just too important for us.

 

[Kelly]

Lindholm was also insanely unluckily when you consider the amount of shots Anaheim generated while he was on the ice, versus having to defend.

How is he unlucky? Lindholm had a great corsi, meaning he was on for more shots for then shots against.. Unless im not following what you're sayin?

 

[Ducks in a row]

How is he unlucky? Lindholm had a great corsi, meaning he was on for more shots for then shots against.. Unless im not following what you're sayin?

Ducks team had a lot of scoring problems during a good part of the season which included time he was on the ice for. If we had more normal scoring levels during that time Lindholm offensive production would of been better.

 

[LV*]

Y would the ducks trade lindholm

 

[Ducks in a row]

Y would the ducks trade lindholm

We wouldn't not unless Lindholm is showing he doesn't want to be in Anaheim and we get a great return back.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

How is he unlucky? Lindholm had a great corsi, meaning he was on for more shots for then shots against.. Unless im not following what you're sayin?

Because for a big chunk of the season the ducks offense was absolutely awful and unlucky, they had incredibly low shooting percentages, and Lindholms PDO was 982, he was extremely unlucky last year in terms of point production