Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[Nervousbreakdown]

If any team should offers sheet Marners it should be Canucks. Imaging Petterson with him? Both are talented and about the same age. It will be like having the Sedin Twins again. Beosser is great but he does not skate nor back check like Marner. Canucks got tons of cap space and I think if the team do well in the playoff next two years, Petterson will take a discount to keep both him and Marner on the same line plus their dynamic young D.

It is just whether Canucks has the balls to go that far and smart enough to make it works.

Hrmmm, I've heard this before somehwere.

Also yes please canucks, offersheet marner. We will take those 4 firsts.

 

[PensandCaps]

I think if a good team can offer sheet marner, f***ing do it.

4 23-30 oa picks for marner is worth it. Way more than worth it.


I think leaf fans and just fans in general over value 1st round picks.

You'd want to trade Marner for something proven, not 4 1st round maybes.

 

[JarvisFunk]

Every team has a "few holes"

Toronto has two top 10 centers, a top 10 winger, a 1D, a 2D and a great starting goalie

Something doesn't add up, a team with all of these pieces should pretty much be guaranteed a trip to the finals.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Something doesn't add up, a team with all of these pieces should pretty much be guaranteed a trip to the finals.

You should learn more about hockey then because tampa proved that wrong literally this year.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

I think if a good team can offer sheet marner, ****ing do it.

4 23-30 oa picks for marner is worth it. Way more than worth it.


I think leaf fans and just fans in general over value 1st round picks.

You'd want to trade Marner for something proven, not 4 1st round maybes.

Yeah but you cant over pay a player just for the sake of keeping him. Losing him would be a massive loss but any good team that signed marner to an offer sheet that netted the leafs 4 first round picks would probably regret it.

 

[PensandCaps]

Yeah but you cant over pay a player just for the sake of keeping him. Losing him would be a massive loss but any good team that signed marner to an offer sheet that netted the leafs 4 first round picks would probably regret it.

No they wouldn't. 4 late first round picks are valueless.

 

[PensandCaps]

You should learn more about hockey then because tampa proved that wrong literally this year.

Except Tampa has actually been to a finals and 3 ECFS with said pieces.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Except Tampa has actually been to a finals and 3 ECFS with said pieces.

Yet they didnt make the finals this year, so how is it a guarantee?

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

No they wouldn't. 4 late first round picks are valueless.

they aren't worthless, but im refering more to the fact that you would be overpaying a guy who doesnt drive his line. And good teams usually don't have the cap space to overpay someone.

 

[McFlyingV]

I mean at the end of the day the only thing that Tavares did was score goals, while Marner was the better playmaker. Both benefited from each other and that's why Marner hit a career high in points while Tavares hit a career high in goals. Tavares is not a better defensive player or controlled zone entry player than Marner, so aside from goal scoring I'm really not sure what argument there is for Tavares being better this season.

Yes he's a better goal scorer and inferior playmaker and point producer. He's not better in any other aspect of the game.

 

[Advanced stats]

Something doesn't add up, a team with all of these pieces should pretty much be guaranteed a trip to the finals.

Someone is obviously very new to hockey... Tampa Bay? Pittsburgh also has all those pieces....as does Washington.

 

[Seanaconda]

Someone is obviously very new to hockey... Tampa Bay? Pittsburgh also has all those pieces....as does Washington.

Maybe he didn't mean every year but if you have them for a while ? Idk . But all those teams have been to the finals . Tb with Johnson instead of point tho

 

[4thline]

I think if a good team can offer sheet marner, ****ing do it.

4 23-30 oa picks for marner is worth it. Way more than worth it.


I think leaf fans and just fans in general over value 1st round picks.

You'd want to trade Marner for something proven, not 4 1st round maybes.

Bold one, the odds of any team draft 4 years in a row in that range is lower than you think,
Bold two, I agree, both teams would probably be in favour of finding a more "known" return that is less volatile

 

[Rafafouille]

Bold one, the odds of any team draft 4 years in a row in that range is lower than you think,
Bold two, I agree, both teams would probably be in favour of finding a more "known" return that is less volatile

A team most likely makes the playoffs all 4 years with marner so 17-31 is a good range. Let's use 2010 and below since these players are all developed already. (e) is for elite. Players. Mentionned are top 6 forwards, top 4 D, starting goalies

2010: bjugstad, Kevin Hayes, Kuznetsov(e), Coyle, nelson.
2009: kreider, Marcus Johansson, palmieri
2008: Gardiner, Eberle, John Carlsson(e)
2007: pacioretty, Backlund, perron.


60 picks, 14 guys actually worth drafting, 2 elite players out of those 14.

Drafting an elite guy at that spot is basically dumb luck. As for just a decent nhl player, you'll probably get only one out of 4 picks.



Tl;dr: unless team misses the playoffs badly, 4 first round picks for marner is absolute garbage value.

 

[Elias GOATtersson]

Am I doing the math wrong, or would matching a (or just signing him to) 10.5m contract put the leafs at 83 million next year, before anyone else is re-signed?

e: I missed the Kessel retention, although I’m not sure if that counts towards the salary cap. I also added Horton’s cap hit, but he must be on LTIR.. so $78m or $79.4m if Kessel’s contract counts?

 

[Rafafouille]

Am I doing the math wrong, or would matching a (or just signing him to) 10.5m contract put the leafs at 83 million next year, before anyone else is re-signed?

That's right but you have to subtract the 5.3m from Nathan Horton.

 

[Elias GOATtersson]

That's right but you have to subtract the 5.3m from Nathan Horton.

Edited the post right as you quoted it

 

[Rafafouille]

Edited the post right as you quoted it

I mean, they're fine. They just have to pay someone to take marleau's last year off them. Now, if he refuses to waive his nmc, it gets trickier for them. Although if I were a leafs fan I wouldn't like the situation. Team was 3 points away from missing the playoffs, will lose pièces this year and can't improve because they're up to the cap.

 

[4thline]

A team most likely makes the playoffs all 4 years with marner so 17-31 is a good range.

"Most likely"

VAN- 26,24,6,23
WSH-16,23,13,22
SJS-17,20,20, 9
PIT 22, 28,22,16
NSH 21,4,11,24
PHI 20,11,17,7
BOS 24,29,25,14
DET 19, 18,15,19
TBL- 10,3, 19, 29
ANA-6,26,24,27
PHX 27, 12, 12,3
CHI 18, 30, 27, 30
MON 3, 25,26,26
BUF 12, 8, 2, 2
DAL 13, 10,14, 12
CAL 14, 6, 4, 15
NYR 28, 19,28,28
CAR 8, 5, 7, 5
STL 25, 22,21,25

Here was the top 20 teams from 2011 and their next 4 1st rounders. Care to count how many satisfy the requirement of having all 4 picks 23 or worse? or even 17 or worse (random cutoff btw given that until expansion came 15 was the 1st playoff 1st round pick)

 

[ohcomeonref]

Someone is obviously very new to hockey... Tampa Bay? Pittsburgh also has all those pieces....as does Washington.

Comparing the recent success of Toronto, Pitts, Tampa, and Washington eh? One of these things is not like the other.

 

[Elias GOATtersson]

I mean, they're fine. They just have to pay someone to take marleau's last year off them. Now, if he refuses to waive his nmc, it gets trickier for them. Although if I were a leafs fan I wouldn't like the situation. Team was 3 points away from missing the playoffs, will lose pièces this year and can't improve because they're up to the cap.

Yup, playing around with capfriendly and I got the same answer. Trade marleau (without retaining or getting another contract back), things should be easy. If he doesn’t, I don’t really see how it would work. Thanks for confirming

 

[Aoko]

Like forcing a star to take a bridge....
And letting your captain get to free agency?

Is that why they refuse to play in the playoffs?

And then both of those players sign well below average contracts to stay with the team.

Yeah, maybe you're onto something.

 

[Legion34]

Comparing the recent success of Toronto, Pitts, Tampa, and Washington eh? One of these things is not like the other.

I think 2 of those things aren’t like the other

 

[Aoko]

I mean 9.5 million a year is literally a boatload of money regardless. That was my point lol.

To us peasants that don't make 7 figures a year, sure it is. But it's not maximizing how much money Marner can make. He isn't going to be leaving money on the table. That's my point lol.

According to you, Marner should sign 5 million a year, because that is still a "boatload of money". More money than most of us will see in our lifetimes, right? See how f***ed your logic is?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

To us peasants that don't make 7 figures a year, sure it is. But it's not maximizing how much money Marner can make. He isn't going to be leaving money on the table. That's my point lol.

I mean you have no idea what he is going to do lol none of us. That is beside what I was commenting on anyways.