Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[Superstar]

So the posters who are "100% sure" are liquidating everything they own and laying it all down with a bookie...

As much as those who are saying the Leafs aren't making the playoffs...

 

[ICBM]

The competition are weak teams like Habs and Flyers. Ofcourse they are making the playoffs.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Not true. If the Leafs win the next 3 (that's a big if as winning both of a B2B against any team is tough), the Leafs will be on pace for 94pts.

96 has been enough to qualify for the playoffs every year but the past 2. I don't see this trend continuing, but even if it does that means the Leafs are still right in the thick of it again. I don't think that should be considered being in a bad spot, especially given our start.


More important to look at the Leaf's own pace as there is only so many points to go around. Get 94 points (we would be on pace for it if we win the next 3) and there is a chance you make it. 96 points (pace if we win 4 more in a row) and you are likely to make it. 98 points (5 more wins) and it is all but guaranteed you make it.

You literally stated they'd be on pace to miss the playoffs (94 point pace) if they win their next 3 while saying it's not true they'd be in a bad spot in that situation. What a world.

 

[Bluelines]

So you are telling me there is a chance

LOL

Numerically there is a chance but in reality I doubt it, the way Boston is playing, I don't see a team that is remotely in the same stratosphere as them. I watched parts of the Boston Montreal game last night and Boston looked like a NHL team playing against a Minor Bantam team, and Montreal is a good team this year.

Boston always seems to have an outlet pass, their good players like Marchand and Pasta always seem to be open. There is always a far side shooter 15 to 20 feet way from the net that is open for a shot.

The only way I see Boston not winning the cup is for the 1990's NJ Devils trap team with 3 HOF defencemen suddenly appear and trap the heck out of the the B's, there has to be a team that can play smothering defence that can beat them , or Boston will walk straight to the cup. I think a coach like Trotz (NYI), Boucher or MacLean (Columbus) could prepare a system that would trap the heck out of them but it would have to be a team that plays flawless.

Watching the game last night the thought popped in my head that these guys (Bruins) look like the NHL version of the New England Patriots, flawless execution with players who as a sum of the whole are better than the individual parts on that team. Aside from their top line, they really are not an impressive team (talent wise), their 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines are average at best. Their best defender is past his best before date, they (defence) are injury prone and inconsistent and the goalie tandem, while good, neither goalie would be considered elite. With all that said they are probably the best team I've seen in the last 25 years, they have inexplicably simpatico.

 

[hockeyes]

Right, but they can't punt away division games again. 1-4-1 vs. BOS, TB, and MTL so far.

I agree. I am of the opinion that the hole is small and Babcock was fired early enough that it should have almost no effect on whether or not they make the playoffs, basically I won't buy any excuse if they miss, it'll be fully on the team and not because of a rough start.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Numerically there is a chance but in reality I doubt it, the way Boston is playing, I don't see a team that is remotely in the same stratosphere as them.

Said the same about Tampa Bay last year

 

[tom leafers]

Top 10.

thanks

 

[Bluelines]

Said the same about Tampa Bay last year

True and they did pop in my head when I was writing the previous post, Tampa simply faced the wrong team in the first round and I did mention a few coaches that I think their style could beat the Bruins. No team is perfect but Boston looks pretty close.

 

[Sypher04]

I think there's a chance more teams in the east will be stealing points off each other this year, which "could" end up lowering the point cutoff that gets you into wildcard vs previous years. That's just a gut feeling though. Time will tell.

 

[Zizzzzy]

The math doesn't lie, pack it in boys.

Oh wait.. MTL is on a 5 game losing streak... Maybe this doesn't mean f*** all after all....

 

[willmma]

Boston crushed the Habs yesterday.

The Habs are 1 point ahead with a game in hand.
The Panthers are 3 points ahead with a game in hand.

We have 57 games to pass them. Including 4 games against the panthers and 2 games against the habs.

Not crazy to think we can pass them if we play better under Keefe than we did under Babs.

 

[HogTown06]

Boston crushed the Habs yesterday.

The Habs are 1 point ahead with a game in hand.
The Panthers are 3 points ahead with a game in hand.

We have 57 games to pass them. Including 4 games against the panthers and 2 games against the habs.

Not crazy to think we can pass them if we play better under Keefe than we did under Babs.

Agreed, they are in full control of their destiny here. I haven't been following the Panthers so I don't know how good they are but the Habs really don't look like they are going to be needing a playoff spot. Safest way would be to try to sneak in as 3rd in the Atlantic and play Tampa in the first round.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Boston crushed the Habs yesterday.

The Habs are 1 point ahead with a game in hand.
The Panthers are 3 points ahead with a game in hand.

We have 57 games to pass them. Including 4 games against the panthers and 2 games against the habs.

Not crazy to think we can pass them if we play better under Keefe than we did under Babs.

I don't see a situation where the top 3 aren't Boston,Tampa, and Toronto again unless there is a major move from Florida or Montreal.

Montreal needs a LD and a center, Florida needs some scoring depth and a LD as well.

 

[Bluelines]

Boston crushed the Habs yesterday.

The Habs are 1 point ahead with a game in hand.
The Panthers are 3 points ahead with a game in hand.

We have 57 games to pass them. Including 4 games against the panthers and 2 games against the habs.

Not crazy to think we can pass them if we play better under Keefe than we did under Babs.

I think we have to look at Fla and not MTL, only because TBL is tied with us with 26 points with 4 less games played, they will take up one of the top 3 positions in our division, Boston has one, TBL the other, leaving us competing for the 3rd spot or a WC spot. Panthers have 29 points with one game in hand on us, assuming FLA wins that one game, they are 5 points ahead of us, assume that game in hand is won in regular time they would have the same ROW as us. The WC spots have 30 points and 29 points with one game in hand, assuming they win both of those games in hand, they would be 32 and 31 points ahead. Pitts (WC1) and Philly (WC2).

At the very earliest it will be 3 games before we are legit back in a playoff spot and that only happens if someone loses their next 3 and we win ours.

 

[kevsh]

I don't know how much of these prediction models consider that the Leafs will mostly be playing teams that they are fighting for position with?

I mention this because saying the Leafs may need 98 points to get into the post-season is possibly accurate and sure makes it sound like a steep hill to climb, but every time they face a Montreal, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, etc. (teams they are in contention with for that last spot) they potentially lower that "98" number: If the Leafs play the Habs, for example, and win in regulation then the magic number to qualify possibly drops (Montreal may now end up with 95 points instead of 97 with the loss). It also helps in the head-to-head matchup if they end up tied.

So the real question isn't how many points do they need or will they get, it's primarily how well they do against the teams they need to beat to get into the playoffs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Boston crushed the Habs yesterday.

The Habs are 1 point ahead with a game in hand.
The Panthers are 3 points ahead with a game in hand.

We have 57 games to pass them. Including 4 games against the panthers and 2 games against the habs.

Not crazy to think we can pass them if we play better under Keefe than we did under Babs.

Completely idiotic to think we can't when we could be in 2nd place in our division as soon as Sunday.

 

[Bluelines]

After last nights game:

• 40.3% chance of making playoffs.
• 3.1% chance of winning the division
• 10.6% chance of finishing 2nd in division.
• 14.6% chance of finishing 3rd in division.
• 5.5% chance of finishing in WC1
• 6.5% chance of finishing in WC2
• 3.4% chance of winning the Lottery (xx best chance)
• 2.5% chance of winning the Cup. (20th best chance)

After last nights games

• 38.6% chance of making playoffs.
• 3.3% chance of winning the division
• 10.3% chance of finishing 2nd in division.
• 14.6% chance of finishing 3rd in division.
• 4.5% chance of finishing in WC1
• 5.8% chance of finishing in WC2
• 3.7% chance of winning the Lottery (11th best chance)
• 2.4% chance of winning the Cup. (20th best chance)

 

[Bluelines]

Chance to make playoffs and points pace, bold is our division

Something is not right with Florida and Montreal, Florida should be ahead of Montreal point pace.

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2020 Playoff & Cup Odds

1. Boston 95.5% (108.2 pts)
2. Carolina 81.4% (101.1 pts)
3. Washington 79.6% (100.8 pts)
4. NY Islanders 78.6% (100.6 pts)
5. Pittsburgh 76.5% (99.4 pts)
6. TB Lightning 66.8% (96.2 pts)
7. Montreal 58.8% (94.3 pts)
8. Philadelphia 58.1% (94.9 pts)
9. Florida 39.6% (90 pts)
10. Toronto 38.6% (89.6 pts)
11. Buffalo 35.9% (88.8 pts)
12. Columbus 29.5% (87.8 pts)
13. Ottawa 24% (85.3% pts)
14. NY Rangers 22.7% (85.6 pts)
15. NJ Devils 11% (81.1 pts)
16. Detroit 3.3% (74.7 pts)

 

[KuleminFan41]

I think there's a chance more teams in the east will be stealing points off each other this year, which "could" end up lowering the point cutoff that gets you into wildcard vs previous years. That's just a gut feeling though. Time will tell.

I'm not going to say the Leafs for sure are making the playoffs this season, but I think they have a stronger chance than some of the teams ahead of them. Florida and Montreal haven't proven much of anything and I can see 1 if not both fall into a wild card spot and I'm not sure they have enough to sustain it all year,.I also don't think Philly is anything special either and they're kind of old so them playing 8 games into shootouts may come back to haunt them down the line if they don't start winning games in regulation. I think the Leafs are in better shape than people give them credit for.

 

[Community]

You literally stated they'd be on pace to miss the playoffs (94 point pace) if they win their next 3 while saying it's not true they'd be in a bad spot in that situation. What a world.

Not bad considering the start they had. They would be close to 50/50 to make the playoffs. I would like to have an extra 10pts obviously but if we win the next 3 we will be in a fine spot. I expect their pace to improve, not get worse.


You were making it seem way worse than it actually is.

 

[Menzinger]

Im not worried in the least about Panthers or Habs right now. Same with the Sabres.

The Leafs jist need a solid win streak and there shouldnt be any doubts about the postseason

 

[soo hound girl]

Leafs will make the playoffs all keefe knows is the word win
Trust me I seen what he did with the Soo Greyhounds took over a team that had 9 NHL drafted players that were really struggling under Mike Stapleton and turned the ship right around players love playing for him ,Dubas and Keefe will get you guys your cup

 

[zeke]

100%

 

[ToMaLe]

Keefe still undefeated as a Leafs coach, and I love it!

 

[Dayjobdave]

The way the Leafs are playing now I think they will make it barring serious injury trouble. The real test is whether they can win the second game of one of these infernal back to backs.
Their horrible schedule is still a challenge.