Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[The Iceman]

LOL

Numerically there is a chance but in reality I doubt it, the way Boston is playing, I don't see a team that is remotely in the same stratosphere as them. I watched parts of the Boston Montreal game last night and Boston looked like a NHL team playing against a Minor Bantam team, and Montreal is a good team this year.

Boston always seems to have an outlet pass, their good players like Marchand and Pasta always seem to be open. There is always a far side shooter 15 to 20 feet way from the net that is open for a shot.

The only way I see Boston not winning the cup is for the 1990's NJ Devils trap team with 3 HOF defencemen suddenly appear and trap the heck out of the the B's, there has to be a team that can play smothering defence that can beat them , or Boston will walk straight to the cup. I think a coach like Trotz (NYI), Boucher or MacLean (Columbus) could prepare a system that would trap the heck out of them but it would have to be a team that plays flawless.

Watching the game last night the thought popped in my head that these guys (Bruins) look like the NHL version of the New England Patriots, flawless execution with players who as a sum of the whole are better than the individual parts on that team. Aside from their top line, they really are not an impressive team (talent wise), their 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines are average at best. Their best defender is past his best before date, they (defence) are injury prone and inconsistent and the goalie tandem, while good, neither goalie would be considered elite. With all that said they are probably the best team I've seen in the last 25 years, they have inexplicably simpatico.

Many were saying that about TB last season...lots of hockey to be played

 

[Zybalto]

Many were saying that about TB last season...lots of hockey to be played

Also probably worth mentioning again that Boston was beaten decisively by the Red Wings a couple of weeks ago.

 

[hamzarocks]

Why is there no pgt following the wings blowout?

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Don't look now but Florida have lost 3 straight, Montreal has lost 5 straight, Buffalo are 2-6-2 in their last 10. Our competition are on a downward trend, while Toronto and Tampa are on an upward trend to join Boston in the top-3 again.

Also, the unbeatable Islanders have lost 3 straight

 

[Le Cobra]

The real question is can we make it past the first round of the playoffs. Can we finally beat Boston

 

[hoglund]

The Leafs haven't made the playoffs yet, no matter where the Leafs finish in the standings the NHL needs to change the playoffs format, there's no way that a 2nd and 3rd place team should face each other in the first round.

 

[Loosie]

Why is there no pgt following the wings blowout?

There is : Post-Game Talk: - Domination. Leafs win 6-0.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The Leafs haven't made the playoffs yet, no matter where the Leafs finish in the standings the NHL needs to change the playoffs format, there's no way that a 2nd and 3rd place team should face each other in the first round.

Yes ridiculous. This is BS Gary's rivalry argument. Funny how all 3 Canadian teams in Atlantic and non in Metro. Let them all beat each other up and then face the Metro. Kinda tilting things to an American team. No wonder it has been 25+ years and counting. Stats wise this is near impossible.

 

[zeke]

100%

 

[ToDavid]

The real question is can we make it past the first round of the playoffs. Can we finally beat Boston

Looks like Boston is going to run away with the division. Ideally we're in a division spot and don't meet them until the second round.

 

[TopCheese]

how could we not make it? we have the coach with the highest win percentage in the history of the nhl

 

[Zybalto]

5v5 adjusted stats for Leafs under Keefe so far and NHL ranking since then:


CF%: 63.88 (1st in the NHL)
SF%: 63.47 (1st in the NHL)
SCF%: 68.14 (1st in the NHL)
HDCF%: 72.51 (1st in the NHL)
xGF%: 67.85 (1st in the NHL)
GF%: 78.99 (1st in the NHL)

Just Offence/60:

CF: 82.47 (1st in the NHL)
SF: 44.78 (1st in the NHL)
SCF: 42.46 (1st in the NHL)
HDCF: 17.97 (1st in the NHL)
xGF: 3.88 (1st in the NHL)
GF: 3.92 (2nd in the NHL)

Just Defence/60 (lower being better of course):

CA: 46.64 (3rd in the NHL)
SA: 25.77 (6th in the NHL)
SCA: 19.85 (1st in the NHL)
HDCA: 6.81 (2nd in the NHL)
xGA: 1.84 (5th in the NHL)
GA: 1.04 (1st in the NHL)

Team save %: 95.95 (2nd in the NHL)

Some of the 1st place rankings are quite a bit better than 2nd place.

 

[mulefarm]

The Leafs haven't made the playoffs yet, no matter where the Leafs finish in the standings the NHL needs to change the playoffs format, there's no way that a 2nd and 3rd place team should face each other in the first round.

There is nothing wrong with the format, in the big picture it’s better for the game. If the leafs would have won those two series, there would be no complaints.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The real test is whether they can win the second game of one of these infernal back to backs.
Their horrible schedule is still a challenge.

Do all teams have the same number of back to backs ?

 

[ToDavid]

Honestly we've gotten really lucky the last week or so. Still an uphill battle but the Panthers and Habs' recent struggles have helped immensely. The wildcard race is going to be a tough one though, Philly and Carolina currently pacing 100+ points in those spots. A lot of strong teams in the mix.

Moneypuck has us back up to about 50/50 but their model tends to be pessimistic so 50/50 isn't bad (Tampa led the league at the opening of the season with only a 74% probability, we started the season at 60% among a lot of good teams). They had us at 22% less than two weeks ago. Dom has us back up to 83% with the Habs and Panthers collapsing (he had us at 60% two weeks ago).

I like our chances. We've set ourselves on equal or nearly equal ground to the majority of our division and I think we're the better team than most of them.

 

[zeke]

Honestly we've gotten really lucky the last week or so. Still an uphill battle but the Panthers and Habs' recent struggles have helped immensely. The wildcard race is going to be a tough one though, Philly and Carolina currently pacing 100+ points in those spots. A lot of strong teams in the mix.

all that is noise, really.

forget what the other teams are doing.

Leafs have to get to at least a 98pt pace to have a good chance at the playoffs. And ideally get to a comfortably over 100pt pace and battle for home ice.

what the other teams do is largely irrelevant. just focus on what the leafs' pts%/pace is.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

we need to hope the teams that have games on us dont do well...and take every win we can while at it.

 

[egd27]

If you take the current points % for the Atlantic teams (except Detroit) and assumed 26 gp for all of them, then the standings would look like this.

Team	%	pts @ 26 gms
Boston	0.780	40.6
Tampa	0.591	30.7
Florida	0.580	30.2
Montreal	0.563	29.3
Toronto	0.538	28.0
Buffalo	0.520	27.0
Ottawa	0.460	23.9

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Pretty wide open aside from 1st with 56 games to play

 

[zeke]

Real Standings:

 

[BrainyBomber]

Honestly we've gotten really lucky the last week or so. Still an uphill battle but the Panthers and Habs' recent struggles have helped immensely. The wildcard race is going to be a tough one though, Philly and Carolina currently pacing 100+ points in those spots. A lot of strong teams in the mix.

Have we gotten really lucky though or are the Habs Panthers and Sabres just mediocre teams.

People need to stop overreacting with recently bias. 82 games decide the playoffs and how good you are not the last goal scored, game played, or previous week.

We are currently in a unique situation having just dumped a coach and changed systems so the difference between now and a week ago is night and day in our performance and results but not so for our divisional competitors.

 

[hoglund]

There is nothing wrong with the format, in the big picture it’s better for the game. If the leafs would have won those two series, there would be no complaints.

You're not thinking straight, please explain to me how a 2nd and 3rd place team (doesn't matter Leafs or whoever) should face each other in the first round.

 

[Bluelines]

The Leafs haven't made the playoffs yet, no matter where the Leafs finish in the standings the NHL needs to change the playoffs format, there's no way that a 2nd and 3rd place team should face each other in the first round.

Yep they should seed the division 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, 3 vs 6, 4 vs 5. They want to create rivalries by doing the 1 vs WC and 2 vs 3 but IMO when you guarantee you are going to eliminate 2 top seeds in the 1st round (either #2 or #3 is eliminated from each division in the 1st round), it creates a watered down playoffs.

Heck at one time we had a HUGE rivalry with St Louis and Chicago.. the good old Norris days or was it the Smythe?

Playoffs create rivalries.

 

[Bluelines]

There is nothing wrong with the format, in the big picture it’s better for the game. If the leafs would have won those two series, there would be no complaints.

Its a poor format, regardless if the Leafs win or lose, lots of things I don't care for like I don't like the SO on OT

 

[Pi]

Real Standings:

Yeah. We need to string together a few more wins to truly be back but I am not worried. With the way this team plays now, its only a matter of when and not if they get past Montreal and Florida.

 

[egd27]

You're not thinking straight, please explain to me how a 2nd and 3rd place team (doesn't matter Leafs or whoever) should face each other in the first round.

Win your Division
Win your Conference
Win the Cup

Explained in under 10 words.