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LD Olli Juolevi - TPS, Liiga (2016, 5th, VAN)

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I really hope the oilers done take him. Would be great to see 2-4 be Finns but that's the last place I want him to develop.
 
FinlandPanther said:
I really hope the oilers done take him. Would be great to see 2-4 be Finns but that's the last place I want him to develop.
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To be fair Knights would be developing him atleast next year, and that's one of the best places to be, and what's Edmonton going to be like in 1-2years, who knows.


I was thinking, and not talking about same level of talent but could Juolevi-Ristolainen be futures Josi-Weber duo?
Weber is someone Ristolainen looks up to and Juolevi could be that quicker, extremely smart all around defender.
 
Ezpz said:
That happens nearly every year though. Very few hyped first round dmen pan out.
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That isn't actually true. If you take an in depth look at the defensemen taken top 15 in the last 10 years vs forwards the bust rate of forwards vs defensemen is actually almost identical. I've crunched the numbers on another board.

This type of lazy analysis and generalizations gets us nowhere.

Here's a very brief look at it, if someone wants to do an in depth analysis I encourage it.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2006e.html

2006 - Biggest bust in the top 10? James Sheppard a forward.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

2007 - You say Thomas Hickey at 4 (which was a reach at the time)? I say Sam Gagner at #6. Biggest bust in the top 10? Zach Hamill, a forward. Alzner, McDonagh and Shattenkirk turned out just fine. Hickey disappointed relative to draft position but that was more the Kings reaching for him than anything, he wasn't rated to go anywhere near #4. Ellerby is a disappointment as well.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html

2008 - Doughty, Bogosian, Pietroangelo, Schenn, Myers, Teubert and E. Karlsson all go top 15. Only Teubert busted. Meanwhile for forwards Filatov, Kyle Beach and Zach Boychuk were busts. Biggest bust in the top 10? Filatov a forward. So in this draft defensemen were FAR safer than forwards. And in the 2nd half of the first round as well you found d-men like Gardiner, Carlsson, Sbisa and Del Zotto. Meanwhile for forwards? Only Colborne, Ennis and Eberle. If you philosophically steered away from defensemen for forwards this draft you would have been making a fundamental mistake.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2009e.html

2009 - Hedman at #2? Franchise D. OEL at #6? Franchise D. Ellis, De Haan, Kulikov and Leddy? All useful players. Only Jared Cowan is arguably a bust and injuries derailed him. Biggest bust in the top 10? Scott Glennie a forward.

Anyways we could go on but this idea that defensemen taken high are more risky is a total myth in the last 10 years. Your examples of defensemen who are taken high busting is easily matched by a list of forwards taken high who busted. Your examples of star defensemen taken in the 2nd and later are easily matched by examples of star forwards being taken in the 2nd and later. Those examples prove nothing. If you do an in depth analysis of the bust rate for defensemen taken top 10 in the draft its going to be very similar to the bust rate for forwards taken in the top 10. If anything recent history is showing forwards may be more risky overall.

Throw in the fact that top 3-4 defensemen hold crazy value in trade and shying away from them in the top 10 of the draft if they are the best player available would be a foolish strategy and philosophy.
 
Flames Draft Watcher said:
That isn't actually true. If you take an in depth look at the defensemen taken top 15 in the last 10 years vs forwards the bust rate of forwards vs defensemen is actually almost identical. I've crunched the numbers on another board.

This type of lazy analysis and generalizations gets us nowhere.

Here's a very brief look at it, if someone wants to do an in depth analysis I encourage it.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2006e.html

2006 - Biggest bust in the top 10? James Sheppard a forward.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

2007 - You say Thomas Hickey at 4 (which was a reach at the time)? I say Sam Gagner at #6. Biggest bust in the top 10? Zach Hamill, a forward. Alzner, McDonagh and Shattenkirk turned out just fine. Hickey disappointed relative to draft position but that was more the Kings reaching for him than anything, he wasn't rated to go anywhere near #4. Ellerby is a disappointment as well.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html

2008 - Doughty, Bogosian, Pietroangelo, Schenn, Myers, Teubert and E. Karlsson all go top 15. Only Teubert busted. Meanwhile for forwards Filatov, Kyle Beach and Zach Boychuk were busts. Biggest bust in the top 10? Filatov a forward. So in this draft defensemen were FAR safer than forwards. And in the 2nd half of the first round as well you found d-men like Gardiner, Carlsson, Sbisa and Del Zotto. Meanwhile for forwards? Only Colborne, Ennis and Eberle. If you philosophically steered away from defensemen for forwards this draft you would have been making a fundamental mistake.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2009e.html

2009 - Hedman at #2? Franchise D. OEL at #6? Franchise D. Ellis, De Haan, Kulikov and Leddy? All useful players. Only Jared Cowan is arguably a bust and injuries derailed him. Biggest bust in the top 10? Scott Glennie a forward.

Anyways we could go on but this idea that defensemen taken high are more risky is a total myth in the last 10 years. Your examples of defensemen who are taken high busting is easily matched by a list of forwards taken high who busted. Your examples of star defensemen taken in the 2nd and later are easily matched by examples of star forwards being taken in the 2nd and later. Those examples prove nothing. If you do an in depth analysis of the bust rate for defensemen taken top 10 in the draft its going to be very similar to the bust rate for forwards taken in the top 10. If anything recent history is showing forwards may be more risky overall.

Throw in the fact that top 3-4 defensemen hold crazy value in trade and shying away from them in the top 10 of the draft if they are the best player available would be a foolish strategy and philosophy.
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So interesting!! Thank you for providing that analysis. I've always bought into that same myth.

As a Buffalo fan, I want Juolevi very much. Him with Risto for the next decade sounds good to me, although it's looking more and more like he'll be long gone by then.
 
I think Juolevi's the best of the big three, but I also think the best d-man of this class will be an unexpected surprise (McAvoy, Fabbro, Johansen, etc.).
 
93LEAFS said:
Don't think anyone knows, but it wouldn't surprise me. He is the safest option. What Oilers do at 4 is truly up in the air. They could easily trade it, or trade RNH for a D, then draft a forward. I think Oilers should gamble on Chychrun because they don't have a true #1 going forward, but if they want to play it safe or think Klefbom can be a #1 Juolevi is the guy, I think he'll be a perfect #2 in this league, and at worst end up a 2nd pairing guy.
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As an Oilers fan I would not mind that. Dubois is my first choice if we keep the pick but I'm starting to think Juolevi would not be a bad selection either and might prefer him over Chychrun/Sergachyov. You really can't go wrong with Juolevi. Seems like a virtually guaranteed 2nd pairing at worst with a good chance of being a #2. His puck-moving skills are deeply needed on the Oilers blueline. He's the kind of guy every team needs in this day and age pretty much.
 
Flames Draft Watcher said:
That isn't actually true. If you take an in depth look at the defensemen taken top 15 in the last 10 years vs forwards the bust rate of forwards vs defensemen is actually almost identical. I've crunched the numbers on another board.

This type of lazy analysis and generalizations gets us nowhere.

Here's a very brief look at it, if someone wants to do an in depth analysis I encourage it.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2006e.html

2006 - Biggest bust in the top 10? James Sheppard a forward.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

2007 - You say Thomas Hickey at 4 (which was a reach at the time)? I say Sam Gagner at #6. Biggest bust in the top 10? Zach Hamill, a forward. Alzner, McDonagh and Shattenkirk turned out just fine. Hickey disappointed relative to draft position but that was more the Kings reaching for him than anything, he wasn't rated to go anywhere near #4. Ellerby is a disappointment as well.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html

2008 - Doughty, Bogosian, Pietroangelo, Schenn, Myers, Teubert and E. Karlsson all go top 15. Only Teubert busted. Meanwhile for forwards Filatov, Kyle Beach and Zach Boychuk were busts. Biggest bust in the top 10? Filatov a forward. So in this draft defensemen were FAR safer than forwards. And in the 2nd half of the first round as well you found d-men like Gardiner, Carlsson, Sbisa and Del Zotto. Meanwhile for forwards? Only Colborne, Ennis and Eberle. If you philosophically steered away from defensemen for forwards this draft you would have been making a fundamental mistake.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2009e.html

2009 - Hedman at #2? Franchise D. OEL at #6? Franchise D. Ellis, De Haan, Kulikov and Leddy? All useful players. Only Jared Cowan is arguably a bust and injuries derailed him. Biggest bust in the top 10? Scott Glennie a forward.

Anyways we could go on but this idea that defensemen taken high are more risky is a total myth in the last 10 years. Your examples of defensemen who are taken high busting is easily matched by a list of forwards taken high who busted. Your examples of star defensemen taken in the 2nd and later are easily matched by examples of star forwards being taken in the 2nd and later. Those examples prove nothing. If you do an in depth analysis of the bust rate for defensemen taken top 10 in the draft its going to be very similar to the bust rate for forwards taken in the top 10. If anything recent history is showing forwards may be more risky overall.

Throw in the fact that top 3-4 defensemen hold crazy value in trade and shying away from them in the top 10 of the draft if they are the best player available would be a foolish strategy and philosophy.
Click to expand...

Great post.
 
Flames Draft Watcher said:
That isn't actually true. If you take an in depth look at the defensemen taken top 15 in the last 10 years vs forwards the bust rate of forwards vs defensemen is actually almost identical. I've crunched the numbers on another board.

This type of lazy analysis and generalizations gets us nowhere.

Here's a very brief look at it, if someone wants to do an in depth analysis I encourage it.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2006e.html

2006 - Biggest bust in the top 10? James Sheppard a forward.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

2007 - You say Thomas Hickey at 4 (which was a reach at the time)? I say Sam Gagner at #6. Biggest bust in the top 10? Zach Hamill, a forward. Alzner, McDonagh and Shattenkirk turned out just fine. Hickey disappointed relative to draft position but that was more the Kings reaching for him than anything, he wasn't rated to go anywhere near #4. Ellerby is a disappointment as well.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html

2008 - Doughty, Bogosian, Pietroangelo, Schenn, Myers, Teubert and E. Karlsson all go top 15. Only Teubert busted. Meanwhile for forwards Filatov, Kyle Beach and Zach Boychuk were busts. Biggest bust in the top 10? Filatov a forward. So in this draft defensemen were FAR safer than forwards. And in the 2nd half of the first round as well you found d-men like Gardiner, Carlsson, Sbisa and Del Zotto. Meanwhile for forwards? Only Colborne, Ennis and Eberle. If you philosophically steered away from defensemen for forwards this draft you would have been making a fundamental mistake.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2009e.html

2009 - Hedman at #2? Franchise D. OEL at #6? Franchise D. Ellis, De Haan, Kulikov and Leddy? All useful players. Only Jared Cowan is arguably a bust and injuries derailed him. Biggest bust in the top 10? Scott Glennie a forward.

Anyways we could go on but this idea that defensemen taken high are more risky is a total myth in the last 10 years. Your examples of defensemen who are taken high busting is easily matched by a list of forwards taken high who busted. Your examples of star defensemen taken in the 2nd and later are easily matched by examples of star forwards being taken in the 2nd and later. Those examples prove nothing. If you do an in depth analysis of the bust rate for defensemen taken top 10 in the draft its going to be very similar to the bust rate for forwards taken in the top 10. If anything recent history is showing forwards may be more risky overall.

Throw in the fact that top 3-4 defensemen hold crazy value in trade and shying away from them in the top 10 of the draft if they are the best player available would be a foolish strategy and philosophy.
Click to expand...

Very interesting, I thought dmen were riskier high picks. Does this hold true for more recent drafts too?
 
Flames Draft Watcher said:
That isn't actually true. If you take an in depth look at the defensemen taken top 15 in the last 10 years vs forwards the bust rate of forwards vs defensemen is actually almost identical. I've crunched the numbers on another board.

This type of lazy analysis and generalizations gets us nowhere.

Here's a very brief look at it, if someone wants to do an in depth analysis I encourage it.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2006e.html

2006 - Biggest bust in the top 10? James Sheppard a forward.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

2007 - You say Thomas Hickey at 4 (which was a reach at the time)? I say Sam Gagner at #6. Biggest bust in the top 10? Zach Hamill, a forward. Alzner, McDonagh and Shattenkirk turned out just fine. Hickey disappointed relative to draft position but that was more the Kings reaching for him than anything, he wasn't rated to go anywhere near #4. Ellerby is a disappointment as well.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html

2008 - Doughty, Bogosian, Pietroangelo, Schenn, Myers, Teubert and E. Karlsson all go top 15. Only Teubert busted. Meanwhile for forwards Filatov, Kyle Beach and Zach Boychuk were busts. Biggest bust in the top 10? Filatov a forward. So in this draft defensemen were FAR safer than forwards. And in the 2nd half of the first round as well you found d-men like Gardiner, Carlsson, Sbisa and Del Zotto. Meanwhile for forwards? Only Colborne, Ennis and Eberle. If you philosophically steered away from defensemen for forwards this draft you would have been making a fundamental mistake.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2009e.html

2009 - Hedman at #2? Franchise D. OEL at #6? Franchise D. Ellis, De Haan, Kulikov and Leddy? All useful players. Only Jared Cowan is arguably a bust and injuries derailed him. Biggest bust in the top 10? Scott Glennie a forward.

Anyways we could go on but this idea that defensemen taken high are more risky is a total myth in the last 10 years. Your examples of defensemen who are taken high busting is easily matched by a list of forwards taken high who busted. Your examples of star defensemen taken in the 2nd and later are easily matched by examples of star forwards being taken in the 2nd and later. Those examples prove nothing. If you do an in depth analysis of the bust rate for defensemen taken top 10 in the draft its going to be very similar to the bust rate for forwards taken in the top 10. If anything recent history is showing forwards may be more risky overall.

Throw in the fact that top 3-4 defensemen hold crazy value in trade and shying away from them in the top 10 of the draft if they are the best player available would be a foolish strategy and philosophy.
Click to expand...
I think at the very-top of the draft D are bit harder to project. But in those cases the forward available is usually a sure thing. Pronman had an interesting post about this justifying why he had Marner and Strome ahead of Hanifin. The other thing is that forwards usually make an impact quicker, so you get more value from them in-regards to their ELC's. This is probably why we see the top D in the draft slip a bit like Jones and Hanifin. I think once you get out of the top 2 though, a D is not riskier than a forward. Not many of the recent D's drafted 1OA have lived up to that billing, Ekblad looks legit, but EJ, Berard, Phillips and Hamrlik never amounted to guys you would consider top 10 at their position league wide, which is what you expect drafting 1st overall
 
Periwinkle said:
That news doesn't specify the lenght and details of the contract. He/his agent would have to be pretty dumb to sign a contract that doesn't have an out clause for AHL.
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True. If Juolevi doesn't have AHL option, his agent really is rather high in 'agent of the year'-nominations. It would be simply stupid. No need to use AHL-option if CHL seems better fit also after draft, but absolutely no reason to close that door beforehand. If KHL-Jokerit do not work getting around that CHL-AHL-clause, they could had easily found some Liiga club to help him out on this.
 
How does Olli fare against Chychcyhchychychrun? And btw, that's me trying to spell his name in real life. How does one spell Chychrun?
 
I don't believe Juolevi would be allowed to play in AHL due to an artificial contract with any KHL or FEL team.

Players drafted and playing for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors.

European players further complicate The Agreement. If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they're drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them. However, if they're drafted as a member of a European squad, and choose post-NHL-draft to play for a CHL team, they can, in fact, report to the NHL team's minor squads before the age limit kicks in.

Ivan Vishnevskiy was the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies' (QMJHL) second pick in the CHL import draft in 2005, before being drafted by the Dallas Stars out of R-N in 2006. Since he was drafted from a CHL team, the same rules apply to Vishnevskiy as any other player drafted from a CHL team: 20 years old or 4 years of play. Vishnevskiy played for Rouyn-Noranda for three seasons, turned 20 during the 2007-2008 season, and reported to the Peoria Rivermen of the AHL to start the 2008-2009 season.
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As Juolevi was drafted to CHL and played there, he's not AHL eligible until the year he turns 20. If he doesn't make the NHL, he'd have to play either in Europe or CHL for the next two seasons.
 
Mr B said:
I don't believe Juolevi would be allowed to play in AHL due to an artificial contract with any KHL or FEL team.



As Juolevi was drafted to CHL and played there, he's not AHL eligible until the year he turns 20. If he doesn't make the NHL, he'd have to play either in Europe or CHL for the next two seasons.
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Julius Honka was in the exact same situation as Juolevi and he was eligible to play in the AHL. There was a lot of confusion about how that worked and I believe it was essentially through a loophole in the rules. But taking that into acount, the AHL seemes like an option for him.
 
JustaFinnishGuy said:
How does Olli fare against Chychcyhchychychrun? And btw, that's me trying to spell his name in real life. How does one spell Chychrun?
Click to expand...

I'm interested and also had the same problem couple of days ago. I think I'm better at spelling NA names than most of the NA people here but that guy made me wanna flip the table over.:laugh: That is a tier for the footballer Blaszczykowski.
 
vaiski said:
Julius Honka was in the exact same situation as Juolevi and he was eligible to play in the AHL. There was a lot of confusion about how that worked and I believe it was essentially through a loophole in the rules. But taking that into acount, the AHL seemes like an option for him.
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Honka was loaned, I don't think Juolevi is. Different situation.
 
vaiski said:
Julius Honka was in the exact same situation as Juolevi and he was eligible to play in the AHL. There was a lot of confusion about how that worked and I believe it was essentially through a loophole in the rules. But taking that into acount, the AHL seemes like an option for him.
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Pretty sure it had to do with Honka's loan agreement expiring prior to the draft, meaning he was technically drafted out of Europe. Unless we have seen the actual expiring date on the loan agreements I don't think anyone here can give a definitive answer on Juolevi, and Nylander.
 
aka Ude said:
I'm interested and also had the same problem couple of days ago. I think I'm better at spelling NA names than most of the NA people here but that guy made me wanna flip the table over.:laugh: That is a tier for the footballer Blaszczykowski.
Click to expand...

"szcz" is one sound in Polish roughly equivalent to Russian "щ". Other than that it has a typical Polish surname structure, nothing especially hard about it to warrant a tier of its own.
 
Ingvar said:
"szcz" is one sound in Polish roughly equivalent to Russian "щ". Other than that it has a typical Polish surname structure, nothing especially hard about it to warrant a tier of its own.
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Yeah but he's a Finn and thusly on default very sparing with his combined consonants. Personally I straighten my back and take a smug satisfied inhale everytime I write 'Schwarzenegger' correctly.
 
MantisTobogganMD said:
Very interesting, I thought dmen were riskier high picks. Does this hold true for more recent drafts too?
Click to expand...

Pronman did a post on this.

He basically said the reason to prioritize forwards at the top of the draft is because the majority of top forwards in the league are found there, not because they are inherently safer.

You very rarely find an elite forward outside the top of the draft. But finding elite defensemen outside the top of the draft (while not likely) is more common.
 
bossram said:
Pronman did a post on this.

He basically said the reason to prioritize forwards at the top of the draft is because the majority of top forwards in the league are found there, not because they are inherently safer.

You very rarely find an elite forward outside the top of the draft. But finding elite defensemen outside the top of the draft (while not likely) is more common.
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That was one point, another was that forwards are more important than defenders, particularly at ES, as the gap between an elite forward and a 4th liner, is much greater than the difference between a #1D and a #6D. A lot of the theory comes from Hockey Abstract. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion though, but that was the premise he worked with. I don't recall him saying anything about it being easier to get elite defenders later than forwards, but that may of been in a different article.
 
Juolevi = Vlasic?

Curious if it's just me, or does Juolevi remind anyone else so much of ME Vlasic? Size, skating ability, offensive instincts, passing ability, stickwork and two way play. He's going to make one team very happy in the top 10.
 
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