Ezpz
No mad pls
- Apr 16, 2013
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LD Olli Juolevi - TPS, Liiga (2016, 5th, VAN)
- Thread starter FinPanda
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snipes
How cold? I’m ice cold.
- Dec 28, 2015
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Doughty, OEL, Hedman, Ekblad in recent years are Franchise D.
But yeah, there will always be the Cam Baker and Jack Johnson's.
covfefe
Zoltan Poszar's Burner
- Feb 5, 2014
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It's really not weird to see top D coming from outside of the 1st in today's NHL.
Subban (2nd), Letang (3rd), Josi (2nd), Klingberg (5th), Giordano (undrafted), Weber (2nd), Keith (2nd), Stralman (7th), the list goes on. D are a mystery when it comes to the draft.
snipes
How cold? I’m ice cold.
- Dec 28, 2015
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Parayko and Ghost you could add to that list too. I wonder why it's such a crapshoot with D.
EverybodyLovesRay
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2008
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People only look at his points in WJC, there were plenty of bonehead plays at that tournament too, very overrated prospect. No homerism here.
People are maybe expecting too much from a 17 yo...yes even he'll make mistakes but he's still a top prospect with plenty of upside and the closest thing to a perfect defenseman in this draft. People really like Fabbro at the U18s, Juolevi is a similar kind of player, just better in every respect expect maybe shot.
Spade
Resident Tool
It's easy to tell which forwards will be producers, they have the puck in the offensive zone and generally the guys with skill are the ones who consistently make great plays with the puck.
A defenseman's primary job is to play defense, which generally involves not actually having the puck. So it's harder to tell which players are legitimately smart enough with their positioning, decision-making and understanding of the game to be able to adapt to the NHL game (which is a completely different animal in terms of puck pressure and speed from the forwards) and which players are just benefiting from good coaching or physical talent. The position in general requires a lot more hockey sense and processing ability than a forward needs, and such intangible skills are a lot harder to accurately project than puck skills, shot skills, and passing skills, which you can physically see.
Plus, the NHL is comprised of the forwards who have been the best or most talented players in their respective teams and leagues since childhood, so just because a defenseman is good in juniors doesn't mean that he will be able to translate to the NHL. There are no weak links in the NHL anymore, even the worst forwards are taught to put pressure on defensemen all the time, so as a defenseman your decision-making has to be pinpoint at all times or else you're leaking goals.
14 defensemen taken in top 5 picks on D from 2005-2012, quite a few are haven't become more than 2nd pairing at best guys.
Jack Johnson: 5th 2005
Thomas Hickey: 4th 2007
Zach Bogosian: 3rd 2008
Luke Schenn: 5th 2008
Erik Gudbranson: 3rd 2010
Adam Larsson: 4th 2011
Griffin Reinhart: 4th 2012
See a recurring trend here, don't draft defensive D that high, especially ones who aren't high end skaters. Hickey was a reach at the time. Bogosian had everything that could go wrong, go wrong. His career is probably much better if he was handled like Pietrangelo and not Doughty, on top of the injury problems. Adam Larsson may not put up top pairing offensive numbers, but he is a high end shut down D, that every team would love to have.
613Leafer
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- May 26, 2008
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Also look at the forwards that went immeiately after these guys. Its not like these dmen were taken ahead of multiple great forward prospects. Dmen generally go where they should in the draft. The guys drafted very high, like Doughty, Ekblad, Hedman, etc, generally DESERVE to go ahead of the forwards they went ahead of (e.g. Filatov, Reinhart, Duchene, etc). Similarly, the dmen listed above, genereally deserved to go ahead or at a comparable spot to most if not all of the forwards that went immediately after them.
After JJ -Pouliot, Brule, and Skille. So a pile of garbage. JJ may be disappointing, but aside from Price, he's still the best guy available at 3rd OA in that draft.
After Hickey - Gagner, Voracek, and Hamill. Again, pretty mixed bag here. One depth forward, one top line winger, and one bust. Hickey isnt exactly sticking out as a bad pick compared to those forwards, only compared to Voracek. But you could have missed just as easily by taking Gagner. Plus Alzner went right after Hickey (while also being consistently ranked higher) and he's easily better than 2/3 of those forwards as well.
After Bogosian/Schenn - Filatov, Wilson, and Boedker. A big bust forward, then two decent 2nd/3rd line tweeners, but its not like any stud forwards went in this range.
After Gudbranson - Johansen, Niderreiter, and Connolly. Johansen is clearly better, but as a group, the forwards arent clearly a step above the dman available here. Id take 1/3 of these forwards ahead of Gudbranson with hindsight.
After Larsson - Strome, Zbad, and Scheifele. This group is a bit better, no clear busts. But also no clear franchise guys either. I wouldnt necessarily take Larsson ahead of these guys in hindsight, but its not like the gap is big either.
After Reinhart - Forsberg, Grigorenko, and Faksa. One really good looking forward, then two meh guys. And keep in mind that the top 10 of this draft included Rielly, Murray, Lindholm, Trouba, and Dumba. So while Reinhart may be trending towards bust territory, you still had better odds with the 4th OA pick taking a dman than taking a forward.
In some cases, particularly Bogosian and Reinhart, much better D were taken right after (Pietrangelo and Rielly, Lindholm, and Trouba). I do think Bogosian had one of the worst developmental situations I've seen along with bad luck, if developed like Pietrangelo his career could be much different.
U must've bolded Schenn by mistake as he's clearly carrying the offensive load for LA tonight. 2 goals going for 3 to tie the game lol. I think he carried doughty this year.
Edit: his first was giving to someone else.
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Hard not to say he is fading a bit down the stretch here just by observation. However, long season in a new country - he has simply played a ton of minutes against top F, ton of games (reg season + WJ + playoffs). That all has to be taken into account - his body type by the looks of it was not prepared for that big of a grind, which is fine going forward if it's rectified.
Looking like Sergachev is going to be the first d-man taken at this point. Juolevi's game will be just fine though.
Looking like Sergachev is going to be the first d-man taken at this point. Juolevi's game will be just fine though.
me2
Go ahead foot
Forwards also get away a lot more because points covers up flaws a lot more for them. Weak defensive play gets Dmen roasted alive. Points buy forwards a lot of blinkered love.
Royal Canuck
Taco Enthusiast
Now that the Canucks slide to 5th, really hoping the Oilers pass up on this guy for Vancouver to take at 5.
The Winter Soldier
Registered User
- Apr 4, 2011
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If I am Edmonton. It's going to be very interesting Juolevi, Dubois, or Tkachuk. I would be tempted to make the gutsy call and go with the D man here.
Don't think anyone knows, but it wouldn't surprise me. He is the safest option. What Oilers do at 4 is truly up in the air. They could easily trade it, or trade RNH for a D, then draft a forward. I think Oilers should gamble on Chychrun because they don't have a true #1 going forward, but if they want to play it safe or think Klefbom can be a #1 Juolevi is the guy, I think he'll be a perfect #2 in this league, and at worst end up a 2nd pairing guy.
truthbluth
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- Feb 2, 2011
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Haven't read through the whole thread. Is Juolevi on loan to London? In other words, is he AHL eligible next season?
Revelate
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- Apr 10, 2011
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truthbluth
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- Feb 2, 2011
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Would love him somehow on the Canucks just no way we pass up on Tkachuck at 5
Bogosian was perceived to be a legit challenger to Doughty. Karlsson went mid-first behind Doughty-Bogosian-Schenn-Tyler Myers-Teubert. I'd say lots of elite defenders go high in their drafts, on top of who you mentioned Risto and Jones look elite, from 2012 most would agree one of Murray-Rielly-Lindholm-Trouba is likely to end up the best (Ghost is making a strong argument though, but hell he was passed over in 2011).
Defenders are probably the hardest position to project out of goalies. I'd say wingers are probably the easiest, followed by centers because most centers can be moved to the wing pretty easily. I'd say this is due to the fact, so much of playing defence is about anticipation, and while you can easily tell who can anticipate plays at the current speed, it is much harder to tell who can adjust as the game gets significantly faster.
Another thing I'd like to point out is that, the changes the NHL made to limit hard neutral zone hitting led to a bunch of young defenders having to change what they built there game around. For example, a heavy hitter like Dion built his game around killing guys in open ice, the fear of him hitting you made the gambles he took to make those hits worthwhile over the long haul, as soon as that became a suspend-able hit, that gamble is no longer worth it, but his instincts are still telling him to make it, so he appears awkward. I feel a lot of the more physical defencemen drafted between 2005-2010 had to adapt there game in a similar way and never reached there ceiling because of it.
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