LD Lane Hutson - Boston University, NCAA (2022, 62nd, MTL)

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The fact you are citing a jfresh chart as proof Matheson is a 3rd pairing d-man is hf comedy gold. You couldn't have outed yourself as less knowledgeable.

Are you saying he's not a defensive liability?

 

[strattonius]

View attachment 908238

Are you saying he's not a defensive liability?

No.

 

[Captain Mountain]

View attachment 908238

Are you saying he's not a defensive liability?

By other models (like Dom Luszczyszyn's) he's not a defensive liability (more neutral). Usage context is important.

Matheson isn't a #1D. He's probably not even a top pair guy on a team that wants to be really competitive. But that wasn't the claim you made. Your argument (and not one made by JFresh) is that he's a bottom pair PP specialist, which you haven't substantiated. While D get overrated by hockey guys all the time, the biggest trap "analytics" falls into is overrating D who play sheltered minutes and underrate D who play tough minutes. And only Walman-Seider played tougher minutes than Matheson last year.

 

[strattonius]

By other models (like Dom Luszczyszyn's) he's not a defensive liability (more neutral). Usage context is important.

Matheson isn't a #1D. He's probably not even a top pair guy on a team that wants to be really competitive. But that wasn't the claim you made. Your argument (and not one made by JFresh) is that he's a bottom pair PP specialist, which you haven't substantiated. While D get overrated by hockey guys all the time, the biggest trap "analytics" falls into is overrating D who play sheltered minutes and underrate D who play tough minutes. And only Walman-Seider played tougher minutes than Matheson last year.

He's a bit of a rover too. Loves to have the puck and rush up the ice and sometimes takes himself out of position. But yeah, calling Matheson a 3rd pairing PP specialist is just an awful analysis. About what you'd expect from someone who takes jfresh charts seriously.

 

[dgibb10]

By other models (like Dom Luszczyszyn's) he's not a defensive liability (more neutral). Usage context is important.

Matheson isn't a #1D. He's probably not even a top pair guy on a team that wants to be really competitive. But that wasn't the claim you made. Your argument (and not one made by JFresh) is that he's a bottom pair PP specialist, which you haven't substantiated. While D get overrated by hockey guys all the time, the biggest trap "analytics" falls into is overrating D who play sheltered minutes and underrate D who play tough minutes. And only Walman-Seider played tougher minutes than Matheson last year.

The problem with that argument is that Matheson has a number of years before MTL playing easier minutes

Sure, he plays very tough minutes in MTL.

But he played much easier minutes in previous stops. And he didn't do anything special with those minutes either

Bad in tough minutes does not automatically translate to good in easy minutes. Especially when we've all SEEN him in those easier minutes.

 

[Baksfamous112]

The fact you are citing a jfresh chart as proof Matheson is a 3rd pairing d-man is hf comedy gold. You couldn't have outed yourself as less knowledgeable.

Seider is also considered a liability according to JFresh.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836841915146457463

 

[Captain Mountain]

The problem with that argument is that Matheson has a number of years before MTL playing easier minutes

Sure, he plays very tough minutes in MTL.

But he played much easier minutes in previous stops. And he didn't do anything special with those minutes either

Bad in tough minutes does not automatically translate to good in easy minutes. Especially when we've all SEEN him in those easier minutes.

He was at worst mediocre in tough (but not quite as tough minutes in 2022-2023) and was excellent in more favourable second pair minutes in 2021-2022 and at worst mediocre in second pair minutes (with the worst OZ% among Pittsburgh D) in 2021 and struggled in Florida in usually tough minutes.

He also, you know, improved. Which happens with vets too. Certainly to the degree that calling him a bottom pair PP specialist doesn't make sense (especially since he's literally never played significant PP minutes before coming to Montreal).

 

[dgibb10]

He was at worst mediocre in tough (but not quite as tough minutes in 2022-2023) and was excellent in more favourable second pair minutes in 2021-2022 and at worst mediocre in second pair minutes (with the worst OZ% among Pittsburgh D) in 2021 and struggled in Florida in usually tough minutes.

He also, you know, improved. Which happens with vets too. Certainly to the degree that calling him a bottom pair PP specialist doesn't make sense (especially since he's literally never played significant PP minutes before coming to Montreal).

His minutes in florida were not particularly tough outside of 2019, where he struggles significantly.

His analytics have been below average every year but 2022. (Where they certainly weren't excellent).

What logic suggests matheson has improved?

We have seen Matheson in tough minutes once before. He struggled. He is back in tough minutes, and is struggling again?

I see nothing from his play to see improvement.

If I'm looking for a guy to take on tough minutes at sub 5 mill, it's not Matheson. I've seen a number of guys do better in tough minutes.

If I'm looking for a guy to dominate easier minutes sub 5 mill, it's still not Matheson. I've seen a number of guys much better suited to take advantage.

If I'm looking for a guy to effectively kill penalties, it's still not Matheson.

Seider is also considered a liability according to JFresh.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836841915146457463

Not what that chart says at all.

Seider plays the toughest minutes in hockey. Nobody would succeed in them. The optimism around seider is that, when we saw him in EASIER minutes (they were still hard minutes, but not as hard), he excelled.

We've seen matheson in minutes that are very hard, but not harder than Seider. He has struggled. We have also seen matheson in easy minutes. He hasn't been anything special in them either

 

[TT1]

Seider is also considered a liability according to JFresh.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836841915146457463

i'd be concerned about his hairdo as well, a clear lack of discipline red flag

 

[Baksfamous112]

His minutes in florida were not particularly tough outside of 2019, where he struggles significantly.

His analytics have been below average every year but 2022. (Where they certainly weren't excellent).

What logic suggests matheson has improved?

We have seen Matheson in tough minutes once before. He struggled. He is back in tough minutes, and is struggling again?

I see nothing from his play to see improvement.

If I'm looking for a guy to take on tough minutes at sub 5 mill, it's not Matheson. I've seen a number of guys do better in tough minutes.

If I'm looking for a guy to dominate easier minutes sub 5 mill, it's still not Matheson. I've seen a number of guys much better suited to take advantage.

If I'm looking for a guy to effectively kill penalties, it's still not Matheson.


Not what that chart says at all.

Seider plays the toughest minutes in hockey. Nobody would succeed in them. The optimism around seider is that, when we saw him in EASIER minutes (they were still hard minutes, but not as hard), he excelled.

We've seen matheson in minutes that are very hard, but not harder than Seider. He has struggled. We have also seen matheson in easy minutes. He hasn't been anything special in them either

They had comparable deployment and both are in the top 3 toughest minutes in the NHL. Matheson may not be a #1 D but he’s surely not a 3rd pairing PP specialist as your good friend Whiskey said

 

[dgibb10]

They had comparable deployment and both are in the top 3 toughest minutes in the NHL. Matheson may not be a #1 D but he’s surely not a 3rd pairing PP specialist as your good friend Whiskey said

There's a pretty sizable gap between 1 and 3 there

Seider has struggled in utterly ridiculous minutes this past year.

What makes him viewed as an elite dman is that, in his rookie year, he had excellent results playing very tough minutes. (this is very valuable).

And then, as a sophmore, he had quality results playing Matheson type minutes.


Matheson has struggled in slightly less tough minutes. He's not winning them or doing anything special in them, just trying to survive out there. Just like seider, and just like a lot of dmen throughout the years have done.

But, when put in easier minutes (WAY easier than seider as a rookie/sophmore), Matheson hasn't taken advantage.

Again, assuming I'm trying to win:

Matheson isn't the guy I want playing the tough minutes.
He also isn't the guy I want playing the easier minutes
He also isn't the guy I want killing penalties
And he also isn't the guy I want on my power play

You can put him in any situation and he falls somewhere between average, passable, and bad. But there's nowhere that he's particularly good. On a team like MTL who needs someone to eat minutes in all kinds of situations while the kids try and figure it out, that works great. On a team trying to win the cup, it doesn't.

 

[Baksfamous112]

There's a pretty sizable gap between 1 and 3 there

Seider has struggled in utterly ridiculous minutes this past year.

What makes him viewed as an elite dman is that, in his rookie year, he had excellent results playing very tough minutes. (this is very valuable).

And then, as a sophmore, he had quality results playing Matheson type minutes.


Matheson has struggled in slightly less tough minutes. He's not winning them or doing anything special in them, just trying to survive out there. Just like seider, and just like a lot of dmen throughout the years have done.

But, when put in easier minutes (WAY easier than seider as a rookie/sophmore), Matheson hasn't taken advantage.

Again, assuming I'm trying to win:

Matheson isn't the guy I want playing the tough minutes.
He also isn't the guy I want playing the easier minutes
He also isn't the guy I want killing penalties
And he also isn't the guy I want on my power play

You can put him in any situation and he falls somewhere between average, passable, and bad. But there's nowhere that he's particularly good. On a team like MTL who needs someone to eat minutes in all kinds of situations while the kids try and figure it out, that works great. On a team trying to win the cup, it doesn't.

There’s barely any difference between Matheson comp and Seider comp last year. Again, very comparable. Anyone who isn’t a true, two-way #1 D is going to struggle in those situation. Very few can handle that kind of load.

It doesn’t mean that Matheson would struggle if given the #3 chair on a contender. On the other hand, I think he would do great and his numbers from 4 years ago doesn’t prove anything other than he was not yet fully developed.

I’m not sure what your argument is anyway. You’re (again) throwing shit all over the wall to see what sticks (as usual).

 

[dgibb10]

There’s barely any difference between Matheson comp and Seider comp last year. Again, very comparable. Anyone who isn’t a true, two-way #1 D is going to struggle in those situation. Very few can handle that kind of load.

It doesn’t mean that Matheson would struggle if given the #3 chair on a contender. On the other hand, I think he would do great and his numbers from 4 years ago doesn’t prove anything other than he was not yet fully developed.

I’m not sure what your argument is anyway. You’re (again) throwing shit all over the wall to see what sticks (as usual).

He's about to be 31 years old ffs. "wasn't finished developing" lmao.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

He's about to be 31 years old ffs. "wasn't finished developing" lmao.

Petry didn't hit 40 points until he was 30. Marchand wasn't PPG until he was 29.

Guys develop after their NHL24 potential turns grey lol.

As for Matheson, he isn't a PP specialist, he's awful there. He's a puck moving 2nd pairing defenseman ideally who can be matched with a defensive #3. He'd play well with peak Tanev or Pesce.

 

[dgibb10]

Petry didn't hit 40 points until he was 30. Marchand wasn't PPG until he was 29.

Guys develop after their NHL24 potential turns grey lol.

As for Matheson, he isn't a PP specialist, he's awful there. He's a puck moving 2nd pairing defenseman ideally who can be matched with a defensive #3. He'd play well with peak Tanev or Pesce.

Marchand did not "develop" suddenly at age 28, he was simply moved onto PP1 that year. He was a stud LONG before that.

Petry again, was placed on PP1 for the first time in that year you claim he "developed"

You are mistaking a change in situation for development.

Anyone would play well matched with peak Pesce or Tanev lmao. If you need one of the best defensive dman in the NHL to look good, that isn't a good sign.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Marchand did not "develop" suddenly at age 28, he was simply moved onto PP1 that year. He was a stud LONG before that.

Petry again, was placed on PP1 for the first time in that year you claim he "developed"

You are mistaking a change in situation for development.

Anyone would play well matched with peak Pesce or Tanev lmao. If you need one of the best defensive dman in the NHL to look good, that isn't a good sign.

Yeah except look at 2017 vs 2019 for Petry.

28 vs 46 points, 7 vs 11 PPP, 22:07 vs 23:07 TOI. He absolutely developed, unless you don't consider a 57% increase in even strength scoring with similar time on ice developing.

Marchand did get a big boost from the PP but his even strength scoring also increased significantly YOY. He developed.

I'm really not sure why you think the idea of someone near the age of 30 finding a new level at their sport surprising. If you watched MMA at all, you'd see guys hitting new levels in their early 30s all the time.

 

[Fatass]

Hutson is the kind of draft hit winning clubs get out of mid round picks to cover for their (inevitable) high first misses.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah except look at 2017 vs 2019 for Petry.

28 vs 46 points, 7 vs 11 PPP, 22:07 vs 23:07 TOI. He absolutely developed, unless you don't consider a 57% increase in even strength scoring with similar time on ice developing.

Marchand did get a big boost from the PP but his even strength scoring also increased significantly YOY. He developed.

I'm really not sure why you think the idea of someone near the age of 30 finding a new level at their sport surprising. If you watched MMA at all, you'd see guys hitting new levels in their early 30s all the time.

His shooting % increased (dman shooting numbers is generally pretty random). He had exactly 172 shots both years.

In terms of PP, he went from 140 minutes in 80 games to 220 minutes.

And would you say he developed? His offense went up sure, but his defense went to shit that year. In fact, relative to his teammates, 18-19 was the worst year of Petry's career in xGoals share.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah except look at 2017 vs 2019 for Petry.

28 vs 46 points, 7 vs 11 PPP, 22:07 vs 23:07 TOI. He absolutely developed, unless you don't consider a 57% increase in even strength scoring with similar time on ice developing.

Marchand did get a big boost from the PP but his even strength scoring also increased significantly YOY. He developed.

I'm really not sure why you think the idea of someone near the age of 30 finding a new level at their sport surprising. If you watched MMA at all, you'd see guys hitting new levels in their early 30s all the time.

MMA and Hockey are not the same sport, in case you were wondering.

In rare cases guys do "reach a new level" although again, it is very often just a change in the situation around them.

Matheson has not shown he's improved. His situation has definitely changed tho. But why would him sucking in tough minutes in MTL convince me all of a sudden he can be excellent in easier minutes, when I have a half decade+ of evidence stating otherwise.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

His shooting % increased (dman shooting numbers is generally pretty random). He had exactly 172 shots both years.

In terms of PP, he went from 140 minutes in 80 games to 220 minutes.

And would you say he developed? His offense went up sure, but his defense went to shit that year. In fact, relative to his teammates, 18-19 was the worst year of Petry's career in xGoals share.

Yeah that accounts for his change in goals, but his even strength assists also went up by 67%. Never mentioned his defensive play, just saying offensively he objectively developed in a positive direction.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah that accounts for his change in goals, but his even strength assists also went up by 67%. Never mentioned his defensive play, just saying offensively he objectively developed in a positive direction.

Did he develop, or did they stick him into the more offensively focused role previously occupied by Andrei Markov?

And the variability of dman point totals, and assist numbers is pretty high accross the board (since they aren't driving offense or creating their own chances in the way a forward is).

 

[Baksfamous112]

Hutson is the kind of draft hit winning clubs get out of mid round picks to cover for their (inevitable) high first misses.

Who are we referring to here? Is it;

Caufield (15)
Guhle (16)
Mailloux (31)
Slafkovsky (1)
Reinbacher (5)
Demidov (5)
Hage (21)

Because that’s all Montreal first round picks in the last 6 years. I see no misses here. Maybe you’re referring to your own misses in Barlow (18) Lucius (18) Pefertti (9) and Heinola (20)?

 

[HockeyVirus]

Next Krug

 

[dgibb10]

Who are we referring to here? Is it;

Caufield (15)
Guhle (16)
Mailloux (31)
Slafkovsky (1)
Reinbacher (5)
Demidov (5)
Hage (21)

Because that’s all Montreal first round picks in the last 6 years. I see no misses here. Maybe you’re referring to your own misses in Barlow (18) Lucius (18) Pefertti (9) and Heinola (20)?

Weird how you left out Mesar, and made the cut off immediately before Jesperi Koktaniemi.

 

[CanadienShark]

The problem with that argument is that Matheson has a number of years before MTL playing easier minutes

Sure, he plays very tough minutes in MTL.

But he played much easier minutes in previous stops. And he didn't do anything special with those minutes either

Bad in tough minutes does not automatically translate to good in easy minutes. Especially when we've all SEEN him in those easier minutes.

I know it's a hard concept to wrap your head around, but some players develop over time.

FWIW, I'm not a big fan of Matheson. He's... Fine.

Anyways, back to Hutson. These threads are a lot more interesting when we talk about the topic without you constantly detailing it.