LD Lane Hutson - Boston University, NCAA (2022, 62nd, MTL)

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The fact you are citing a jfresh chart as proof Matheson is a 3rd pairing d-man is hf comedy gold. You couldn't have outed yourself as less knowledgeable.

Are you saying he's not a defensive liability?

 

[strattonius]

View attachment 908238

Are you saying he's not a defensive liability?

No.

 

[Captain Mountain]

View attachment 908238

Are you saying he's not a defensive liability?

By other models (like Dom Luszczyszyn's) he's not a defensive liability (more neutral). Usage context is important.

Matheson isn't a #1D. He's probably not even a top pair guy on a team that wants to be really competitive. But that wasn't the claim you made. Your argument (and not one made by JFresh) is that he's a bottom pair PP specialist, which you haven't substantiated. While D get overrated by hockey guys all the time, the biggest trap "analytics" falls into is overrating D who play sheltered minutes and underrate D who play tough minutes. And only Walman-Seider played tougher minutes than Matheson last year.

 

[strattonius]

By other models (like Dom Luszczyszyn's) he's not a defensive liability (more neutral). Usage context is important.

Matheson isn't a #1D. He's probably not even a top pair guy on a team that wants to be really competitive. But that wasn't the claim you made. Your argument (and not one made by JFresh) is that he's a bottom pair PP specialist, which you haven't substantiated. While D get overrated by hockey guys all the time, the biggest trap "analytics" falls into is overrating D who play sheltered minutes and underrate D who play tough minutes. And only Walman-Seider played tougher minutes than Matheson last year.

He's a bit of a rover too. Loves to have the puck and rush up the ice and sometimes takes himself out of position. But yeah, calling Matheson a 3rd pairing PP specialist is just an awful analysis. About what you'd expect from someone who takes jfresh charts seriously.

 

[dgibb10]

By other models (like Dom Luszczyszyn's) he's not a defensive liability (more neutral). Usage context is important.

Matheson isn't a #1D. He's probably not even a top pair guy on a team that wants to be really competitive. But that wasn't the claim you made. Your argument (and not one made by JFresh) is that he's a bottom pair PP specialist, which you haven't substantiated. While D get overrated by hockey guys all the time, the biggest trap "analytics" falls into is overrating D who play sheltered minutes and underrate D who play tough minutes. And only Walman-Seider played tougher minutes than Matheson last year.

The problem with that argument is that Matheson has a number of years before MTL playing easier minutes

Sure, he plays very tough minutes in MTL.

But he played much easier minutes in previous stops. And he didn't do anything special with those minutes either

Bad in tough minutes does not automatically translate to good in easy minutes. Especially when we've all SEEN him in those easier minutes.

 

[Baksfamous112]

The fact you are citing a jfresh chart as proof Matheson is a 3rd pairing d-man is hf comedy gold. You couldn't have outed yourself as less knowledgeable.

Seider is also considered a liability according to JFresh.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836841915146457463

 

[Captain Mountain]

The problem with that argument is that Matheson has a number of years before MTL playing easier minutes

Sure, he plays very tough minutes in MTL.

But he played much easier minutes in previous stops. And he didn't do anything special with those minutes either

Bad in tough minutes does not automatically translate to good in easy minutes. Especially when we've all SEEN him in those easier minutes.

He was at worst mediocre in tough (but not quite as tough minutes in 2022-2023) and was excellent in more favourable second pair minutes in 2021-2022 and at worst mediocre in second pair minutes (with the worst OZ% among Pittsburgh D) in 2021 and struggled in Florida in usually tough minutes.

He also, you know, improved. Which happens with vets too. Certainly to the degree that calling him a bottom pair PP specialist doesn't make sense (especially since he's literally never played significant PP minutes before coming to Montreal).

 

[dgibb10]

He was at worst mediocre in tough (but not quite as tough minutes in 2022-2023) and was excellent in more favourable second pair minutes in 2021-2022 and at worst mediocre in second pair minutes (with the worst OZ% among Pittsburgh D) in 2021 and struggled in Florida in usually tough minutes.

He also, you know, improved. Which happens with vets too. Certainly to the degree that calling him a bottom pair PP specialist doesn't make sense (especially since he's literally never played significant PP minutes before coming to Montreal).

His minutes in florida were not particularly tough outside of 2019, where he struggles significantly.

His analytics have been below average every year but 2022. (Where they certainly weren't excellent).

What logic suggests matheson has improved?

We have seen Matheson in tough minutes once before. He struggled. He is back in tough minutes, and is struggling again?

I see nothing from his play to see improvement.

If I'm looking for a guy to take on tough minutes at sub 5 mill, it's not Matheson. I've seen a number of guys do better in tough minutes.

If I'm looking for a guy to dominate easier minutes sub 5 mill, it's still not Matheson. I've seen a number of guys much better suited to take advantage.

If I'm looking for a guy to effectively kill penalties, it's still not Matheson.

Seider is also considered a liability according to JFresh.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836841915146457463

Not what that chart says at all.

Seider plays the toughest minutes in hockey. Nobody would succeed in them. The optimism around seider is that, when we saw him in EASIER minutes (they were still hard minutes, but not as hard), he excelled.

We've seen matheson in minutes that are very hard, but not harder than Seider. He has struggled. We have also seen matheson in easy minutes. He hasn't been anything special in them either

 

[TT1]

Seider is also considered a liability according to JFresh.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836841915146457463

i'd be concerned about his hairdo as well, a clear lack of discipline red flag

 

[Baksfamous112]

His minutes in florida were not particularly tough outside of 2019, where he struggles significantly.

His analytics have been below average every year but 2022. (Where they certainly weren't excellent).

What logic suggests matheson has improved?

We have seen Matheson in tough minutes once before. He struggled. He is back in tough minutes, and is struggling again?

I see nothing from his play to see improvement.

If I'm looking for a guy to take on tough minutes at sub 5 mill, it's not Matheson. I've seen a number of guys do better in tough minutes.

If I'm looking for a guy to dominate easier minutes sub 5 mill, it's still not Matheson. I've seen a number of guys much better suited to take advantage.

If I'm looking for a guy to effectively kill penalties, it's still not Matheson.


Not what that chart says at all.

Seider plays the toughest minutes in hockey. Nobody would succeed in them. The optimism around seider is that, when we saw him in EASIER minutes (they were still hard minutes, but not as hard), he excelled.

We've seen matheson in minutes that are very hard, but not harder than Seider. He has struggled. We have also seen matheson in easy minutes. He hasn't been anything special in them either

They had comparable deployment and both are in the top 3 toughest minutes in the NHL. Matheson may not be a #1 D but he’s surely not a 3rd pairing PP specialist as your good friend Whiskey said

 

[dgibb10]

They had comparable deployment and both are in the top 3 toughest minutes in the NHL. Matheson may not be a #1 D but he’s surely not a 3rd pairing PP specialist as your good friend Whiskey said

There's a pretty sizable gap between 1 and 3 there

Seider has struggled in utterly ridiculous minutes this past year.

What makes him viewed as an elite dman is that, in his rookie year, he had excellent results playing very tough minutes. (this is very valuable).

And then, as a sophmore, he had quality results playing Matheson type minutes.


Matheson has struggled in slightly less tough minutes. He's not winning them or doing anything special in them, just trying to survive out there. Just like seider, and just like a lot of dmen throughout the years have done.

But, when put in easier minutes (WAY easier than seider as a rookie/sophmore), Matheson hasn't taken advantage.

Again, assuming I'm trying to win:

Matheson isn't the guy I want playing the tough minutes.
He also isn't the guy I want playing the easier minutes
He also isn't the guy I want killing penalties
And he also isn't the guy I want on my power play

You can put him in any situation and he falls somewhere between average, passable, and bad. But there's nowhere that he's particularly good. On a team like MTL who needs someone to eat minutes in all kinds of situations while the kids try and figure it out, that works great. On a team trying to win the cup, it doesn't.