LD Andrew Nielsen (2015, 65th, TOR)

[613Leafer]

Hope to see him in the AHL next year as I go to way more Marlies games vs Leafs games. Gonna be interesting to see whether the Marlies are pretty much gutted going into next year. Some decisions need to be made on guys like Loov and Percy.

It's a revolving door, but for every Nylander, Soshnikov, Harrington, etc that moves on, you'll get guys like Gauthier/Kapanen/Valiev taking on bigger roles, then some combination of Dermott, Nielsen, Johnson, Bracco, etc coming in as rookies.

They should stay competitive, though unlikely to be quite this good.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

The difference for me in the 2 is I don't think Dermott has progressed as well as Nielsen has this year. Where one prospect has taken a good step fwd, the other has stayed where they are.

IMO Nielsen is the Leafs 2nd best prospect from last summer's draft. Button posted the same thing after I posted this before his rankings came out.

I think Nielsen as a prospect has gone under the radar since training camp.

Keep in mind that Nielsen was playing on a near-worst team in the CHL to a near-best team in the CHL

 

[WTFMAN99]

Not all players experience linear growth.

Dermott has been good this year, and even though Erie is near the top of the league, they lost McDavid, and offense does leave the building when he isn't in the line up.

Nielsen has had a great year though for sure.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Keep in mind that Nielsen was playing on a near-worst team in the CHL to a near-best team in the CHL

I always factor in the quality of team a prospect is playing on. It has helped me make some great calls on prospects this past draft.

It's just one layer of information, but nevertheless a layer to take stock in.

 

[kk87]

I always factor in the quality of team a prospect is playing on. It has helped me make some great calls on prospects this past draft.

It's just one layer of information, but nevertheless a layer to take stock in.

I agree that this is a factor to consider. But I feel like some people take it overboard, and will completely write off a prospect if they're on a high scoring team. That is pretty ridiculous. You can only put so much stock into that.

Also, I feel like this should be less of a factor for defensemen. If a dman is putting up big point totals, it means that they're moving pucks up the ice effectively, and getting pucks on net. If a defenseman isn't able to get the puck to their highly-skilled forwards - or put it in scoring areas - frequently and consistently, they aren't going to get a lot of points regardless of what team they play on.

 

[NHL RankKing]

I always factor in the quality of team a prospect is playing on. It has helped me make some great calls on prospects this past draft.

It's just one layer of information, but nevertheless a layer to take stock in.

A decent way to normalize that is to see how many team goals the player gets a point on. Currently Nielsen is around 25%
In other words, he gets a point on one out of every four goals Lethbridge scores. That's pretty decent for a Dman in the WHL.

Just as a comparable, Ethan Bear is around 30% (I'm not trying to compare them as players).

 

[FLYguy3911]

A decent way to normalize that is to see how many team goals the player gets a point on. Currently Nielsen is around 25%
In other words, he gets a point on one out of every four goals Lethbridge scores. That's pretty decent for a Dman in the WHL.

Just as a comparable, Ethan Bear is around 30% (I'm not trying to compare them as players).

Agreed. I've been tracking the two Flyers defensemen in the WHL. Provorov has points on 27% of his teams goals. Sanheim has points on 40% of his team goals.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I agree that this is a factor to consider. But I feel like some people take it overboard, and will completely write off a prospect if they're on a high scoring team. That is pretty ridiculous. You can only put so much stock into that.

Also, I feel like this should be less of a factor for defensemen. If a dman is putting up big point totals, it means that they're moving pucks up the ice effectively, and getting pucks on net. If a defenseman isn't able to get the puck to their highly-skilled forwards - or put it in scoring areas - frequently and consistently, they aren't going to get a lot of points regardless of what team they play on.

I made mention in training camp how impressed I was with Nielsen. He's not the type of guy that will wow fans by his stick handling and skating. There are many that do these things well that are disappointments. But they stand out. Nielsen stood out to me because he played an efficient game, had a long reach, made good first passes, had good size, and that shot was very noticable. I have tried to catch more games of Lethbridge to see more of just him specifically. I really mean it when I think he may be better than Dermott one day. Whom to me seems like a Percy caliber player. Decent prospect, but not great this year. Nielsen on the otherhand has intriguing upside. I think he is still improving, we can see how good he will be when that developing is completed.

 

[The Assclown]

I made mention in training camp how impressed I was with Nielsen. He's not the type of guy that will wow fans by his stick handling and skating. There are many that do these things well that are disappointments. But they stand out. Nielsen stood out to me because he played an efficient game, had a long reach, made good first passes, had good size, and that shot was very noticable. I have tried to catch more games of Lethbridge to see more of just him specifically. I really mean it when I think he may be better than Dermott one day. Whom to me seems like a Percy caliber player. Decent prospect, but not great this year. Nielsen on the otherhand has intriguing upside. I think he is still improving, we can see how good he will be when that developing is completed.

Is it possible that he's already better than Dermott?

 

[snizzbone*]

Obviously you can cite how good his team is for why he's been doing better, but you also can't ignore that last year was his first year in the WHL. He's a late bloomer so it's possible he's just simply gotten better very quickly.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Is it possible that he's already better than Dermott?

They are only 31 picks apart. One a 2nd rd pick, the other a 3rd rd pick. At this stage it is inconclusive. But if it did happen, I don't think anyone should be shocked Nielsen could be better one day.

 

[Redline]

Is it possible that he's already better than Dermott?

Perhaps some day, certainly not right now. There's no doubt about that.

 

[Atomos2]

Is it possible that he's already better than Dermott?

No he's not.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

67 points in 66 games, looks like his breakout year. AHL eligible next year, will be interesting to see how he translates to the pro game.

 

[SmartPuck]

67 points in 66 games, looks like his breakout year. AHL eligible next year, will be interesting to see how he translates to the pro game.

Leafs fans better be patient. I like the tools he has but the jump from WHL to AHL is a big one, especially for a guy with only two junior seasons under his belt. Wouldn't be surprised if he started in the ECHL next year instead.

 

[McMatthews]

Leafs fans better be patient. I like the tools he has but the jump from WHL to AHL is a big one, especially for a guy with only two junior seasons under his belt. Wouldn't be surprised if he started in the ECHL next year instead.

With the tools he has, there is no doubt he'll be with the Marlies.

Sheldon Keefe and Kyle Dubas will work on him and put him in a situation to be successful.

Much like they have with Rinat Valiev. He's been excellent as a 20 year old.

 

[SmartPuck]

With the tools he has, there is no doubt he'll be with the Marlies.

Sheldon Keefe and Kyle Dubas will work on him and put him in a situation to be successful.

Much like they have with Rinat Valiev. He's been excellent as a 20 year old.

I just think during their final year of WHL time Valiev was a bit more sturdy two-ways than Nielsen is. It's close but I just felt Valiev was more suited to make the jump and be successful. Nielsen, while good, still is pretty raw considering he'll be expected to face grown men next season.

Just feel it's smart to be slow and steady.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I just think during their final year of WHL time Valiev was a bit more sturdy two-ways than Nielsen is. It's close but I just felt Valiev was more suited to make the jump and be successful. Nielsen, while good, still is pretty raw considering he'll be expected to face grown men next season.

Just feel it's smart to be slow and steady.

He started a bit later then Valiev, so yeah Nielsen definitely would benefit from going slowly.

 

[Battle Lin]

its all about the skating with this kid...u gotta keep up with players and get to pucks first as a D...there are tons of nothing special on O 20ish point defensemen in the nhl that log big icetime because they can move, not just move well but move great and play strong D

 

[Stats01]

Leafs fans better be patient. I like the tools he has but the jump from WHL to AHL is a big one, especially for a guy with only two junior seasons under his belt. Wouldn't be surprised if he started in the ECHL next year instead.

the Leafs and Marlies will be revolving doors in the summer/beginning of the season so I fully expect him on the Marlies for sure.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

It's possible he may be with the echl at some point next year
But there is definitely room for him on the marlies

 

[Leafs87]

Who's a good comparison for him ?

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Honestly a phaneuf lite imo
Booming shot from the point, both 6'3, neuf is 214 NOW nielson is 207 closing in on weight both left shot both take a lot of penalties
And like to hit. Not sure on nielsons skating avg ish?
They're point totals are similar as well, nielsons draft +1 is similar to neufs draft +2

 

[Apotheosis]

Who's a good comparison for him ?

Reminds me of Shea Weber.

 

[Atomos2]

Reminds me of Shea Weber.

He's not that elite defensively. I'd say more like Jack Johnson