I don't think anyone counts the WSH series so let's look at the last 4.
BOS twice, slight underdogs both times, maybe 43-45% chance or so to win each one.
CLB, very slight favourites, maybe 52% to win?
MTL, heavy favourites, maybe 70% or so to win.
Overall, in the long run we should win about 2 out of these 4.
Small sample size of course so sometimes we would win all 4 or lose all 4. What bugs me personally is how we for some inexplicable reason seem to play some of our worst hockey of the playoffs in game 7. I think we've been outscored something like 18-6 in the last 4 series deciding games, 11-2 in the last 3 such games and that just stinks to high heaven.
I'm not one of those who says if we lose again, heads have to roll but we do need to show a MUCH higher level of compete.