Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[johnjm22]

Are we not allowed to re sign him after 3 years?

He's not required to sign with the Kings. He can sign anywhere.

Also, if he's actually worth the package some people think he is, than he's a 9M+ player for 8 years. That's the type of deal these players sign.

He would turn 28 in the first year of his contract and it would take him until he's 36.

Not a great situation.

 

[AbsentMojo]

Chychrun stats this year are terrible - esp compared to the insane season he had last year... does being unhappy w a tank team explain it, or is there something else going on w him this year?

 

[Kingspiracy]

He's not required to sign with the Kings. He can sign anywhere.

Also, if he's actually worth the package some people think he is, than he's a 9M+ player for 8 years. That's the type of deal these players sign.

He would turn 28 in the first year of his contract and it would take him until he's 36.

Not a great situation.

If he has a 6 year contract he is comfortable and doesnt need to play hard, he doesnt need to be thinking of his next contract.

We could still trade him if the dollars dont work or he wont re sign (or he doesnt fit here).

 

[No Name The Nameless]

LOL. If you think his "go fast" is average you need to get your eyes checked. And since when are we looking for "average"? I didn't see last nights game but I don't think he was in a top six role. So, with no facts in your statement it really comes down to him flunking your eye test. You really should get your eyes checked.

Everything besides speed and shot are below average. His shot and speed are above average.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

He's not required to sign with the Kings. He can sign anywhere.

Also, if he's actually worth the package some people think he is, than he's a 9M+ player for 8 years. That's the type of deal these players sign.

He would turn 28 in the first year of his contract and it would take him until he's 36.

Not a great situation.

The same can be said for any good player. Do you not want to have good players?

 

[DoktorJeep]

Yep. Blake has had five drafts now and he's also added additional prospects during this time. These prospects can quickly become depreciating assets so it is up to him and his staff to identify realistic expectations for the future v. the ones that were believed on draft day.

I'm not sure Chychrun is the guy to do it for but all of these prospects are not going to hit their draft day potential. As most of us said since Blake pushed the ejector button during the 2019 season, this past off-season was where he was going to have to start proving to be a real GM v. a guy that just loses on purpose and trades legit NHL players for "magic beans".

He can do something like the O'Sullivan trade (which was shocking) or he can hold on to Hickey forever until he is lost for nothing in return. You definitely need to have patience--and Blake has mostly shown that he has that--but you also can't hold on to the dream for too long. Going to be interesting to see how he handles it.

It’s fait accompli that management is going to try to get the most out of the players making the most money for the foreseeable future. Whether you agree with the strategy or not, it’s going to have to play out. Fans are so beat down from losing we’re back to a mindset where getting to the second round of the playoffs will be enough to make most people happy. Upsetting some team along the way will be good enough. Mediocrity will garner high praise and endless highlights.

 

[kingsfan]

Can people stop mentioning Bjornfoot, Anderson, Clarke and Faber in trades. How many regular everyday Dmen are as young as Bjorn and Mikey. At 26 they will be so much better than they are now. Clarke is our only possible Drew replacement.

Who is putting Clarke in trades? I don't think I've seen anyone put him in an offer and virtually everyone is saying he should be as untouchable as QB.

If you're going to trade away a massive package for a player, you want that player to be a major contributor to your team for the better part of a decade.

Chychrun is only signed for 3 more years after this season. Then he's a UFA.

Off the top of my head I can't think of one guy that's been traded with five or more years left on his deal that wasn't a salary dump since the days of Carter, Richards, etc. The trades you speak of likely no longer exist.

He's not required to sign with the Kings. He can sign anywhere.

Also, if he's actually worth the package some people think he is, than he's a 9M+ player for 8 years. That's the type of deal these players sign.

He would turn 28 in the first year of his contract and it would take him until he's 36.

Not a great situation.

That's a straw man argument. Every single UFA can decline to resign. The Seth Jones are the rarity and if there's a mutual desire to keep a player more often than not he resigns.

Who is the last player that we know of that's refused to resign in LA?

 

[Fishhead]

Chychrun stats this year are terrible - esp compared to the insane season he had last year... does being unhappy w a tank team explain it, or is there something else going on w him this year?

Nobody really knows. His big season was an outlier, so was it a break out or a one-off? I think it's somewhere in between. He is injury prone so could be something wrong with him, but he's back now so we can get a better read. He's far from a slam dunk so any deal for him should be made carefully.

 

[King'sPawn]

Who is putting Clarke in trades? I don't think I've seen anyone put him in an offer and virtually everyone is saying he should be as untouchable as QB.

I've included Clarke in trades as a "I don't want to but if we're going in that direction here's a package I'd trade for him." Namely the comp being that LA traded Schenn + for Richards, so an equivalent would be akin to Clarke + Fagemo for Chychrun.

But I've also said the Kings should ultimately wait this season before trading anything for a big vet.

 

[kingsfan]

I've included Clarke in trades as a "I don't want to but if we're going in that direction here's a package I'd trade for him." Namely the comp being that LA traded Schenn + for Richards, so an equivalent would be akin to Clarke + Fagemo for Chychrun.

But I've also said the Kings should ultimately wait this season before trading anything for a big vet.

Fair. To me the Schenn comparable would be Turcotte.

 

[Fishhead]

Scoring being bad for Corsi is quite an interesting take. To start, Byfield had gotten off the ice before Athanasiou scored (and had managed to be 0 CF/3 CA that shift prior to getting off the ice before Athanasiou scored; just because a goal was scored on the rush doesn't mean there weren't shot attempts on the ice prior). Of Byfield's 21 shifts, he was only on the ice for one Kings' rush-chance goal, so that doesn't explain losing the puck control battle the other 20 shifts (8 CF/18 CA those other 20 shifts).

Sometimes the actual answer is the simplest one: Athanasiou's style of play is not conducive to puck possession. He plays a very individualistic style of game that, a large majority of the time, relies on him getting his own rush chances with his speed.

By the way...

Hard to say those lines' corsis are hurt by scoring. Almost like controlling the shot attempts leads to more scoring for and being scored on less, which is probably why there has generally been a pretty strong correlation between the teams that win the Stanley Cup (including both times the Kings did it) and controlling a strong majority of the shot attempts.

Corsi also has to be taken in context, which is when it's most useful.

The most important thing about Corsi is it isn't useful until you hit bigger sample sizes. Scoring isn't bad for Corsi when using it properly, it has an incredibly small effect. I wouldn't take anything out of Byfield's CF% as doesn't have near enough games for his Corsi to mean anything yet. I would say you need at least a season worth of games to get anything meaningful out of it. Even those 30 game samples in the table are too small, they are just enough to start telling a story. Corsi is probably most useful as a team stat, as that way it measures far more shifts resulting in huge sample sizes.

What's peculiar about all possession/danger numbers (CF%, FF%, DFF%) is they go from telling you absolutely nothing after 20 games, but by the time you hit 100 games they are one of the best indicators of how a player affects the game and his teammates.

 

[Docgonzo]

I like AA but a lot of times he tries to skate through the whole defense and ignores his line mates. With the raises to Kempe, Peterson and needing to spend money on a LHD, I don’t see where AA fits especially with Turcotte, Fagemo, Madden, Simontival, Laf, all waiting in the wings.

Also if you want to bump Kaliyev up the lineup where does AA go? He’s not taking Iaffalo, Kempe, and Ardvisson’s spots. That leaves Moore or spots for the kids. AA isn’t playing 4th line.

 

[johnjm22]

The same can be said for any good player. Do you not want to have good players?

If you're going to trade a massive package, you want the player to either be on rights controlled contract or a long term contract. Not a 3 year deal to unrestricted free agency.

 

[johnjm22]

If he has a 6 year contract he is comfortable and doesnt need to play hard, he doesnt need to be thinking of his next contract.

I've gotta be honest. I don't really understand what you're saying here.

Off the top of my head I can't think of one guy that's been traded with five or more years left on his deal that wasn't a salary dump since the days of Carter, Richards, etc. The trades you speak of likely no longer exist.

One just happened this season.

It's not just about years left. It could also be a rights controlled contract.

That's a straw man argument. Every single UFA can decline to resign. The Seth Jones are the rarity and if there's a mutual desire to keep a player more often than not he resigns.

Who is the last player that we know of that's refused to resign in LA?

I agree that it's likely the Kings would be able to re-sign him. But it's not a guarantee. Teams aren't always able to retain players. Panarin leaving CBJ for example. And even if the Kings do re-sign him it's not a great situation because players of that caliber (if he's as good as people are saying), sign big long term deals. Usually 8 years.

Also, not a straw man argument, it's argument explaining why his contractual situation is a problem, and giving scenarios as to why. There was no implication that he said something he didn't.

 

[kingsfan]

One just happened this season.

It's not just about years left. It could also be a rights controlled contract.


I agree that it's likely the Kings would be able to re-sign him. But it's not a guarantee. Teams aren't always able to retain players. Panarin leaving CBJ for example. And even if the Kings do re-sign him it's not a great situation because players of that caliber (if he's as good as people are saying), sign big long term deals. Usually 8 years.

Also, not a straw man argument, it's argument explaining why his contractual situation is a problem, and giving scenarios as to why. There was no implication that he said something he didn't.

You're right, the Eichel trade. To be fair, that's a unicorn of a deal that has some extenuating circumstances that wouldn't come about very often, such as disagreeing on a surgery procedure. I don't think that illustrates a likelihood of this type of player you refer to moving often or even again in the coming years. Eichel also carries a cap hit above what you were concerned Chychrun would get.

No player is a guarantee to resign, but those are the risks that come with any trade. If that's a barrier to a deal we wouldn't be making very many major trades at all. It's also a two-way street, we don't have to resign him. You see what UFA defensemen fetch at the deadline, we could recoup a 1st+ of our investment if we wanted to flip him instead of resigning him.

I don't see the value to being frozen looking for unicorn trades for guys we can control for five+ years.

 

[lumbergh]

Corsi also has to be taken in context, which is when it's most useful.

The most important thing about Corsi is it isn't useful until you hit bigger sample sizes. Scoring isn't bad for Corsi when using it properly, it has an incredibly small effect. I wouldn't take anything out of Byfield's CF% as doesn't have near enough games for his Corsi to mean anything yet. I would say you need at least a season worth of games to get anything meaningful out of it. Even those 30 game samples in the table are too small, they are just enough to start telling a story. Corsi is probably most useful as a team stat, as that way it measures far more shifts resulting in huge sample sizes.

What's peculiar about all possession/danger numbers (CF%, FF%, DFF%) is they go from telling you absolutely nothing after 20 games, but by the time you hit 100 games they are one of the best indicators of how a player affects the game and his teammates.

Nailed it. During a single game these advanced stats mean almost nothing. Over the course of a season they can tell you the overall quality of a player or a team.

If you're curious, these various advanced stats can be ranked in terms of correlation with goals for % over a season (via Natural Stat Trick).

PDO>>xGF%>SF%>FF%>CF%

You can do this on Excel. It is like this year after year. Corsi is just not a very good advanced stat.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

For as much as people can tend to dismiss analytics (for whatever reasons or motivations), it's worth highlighting that teams that don't have research and development/analytics groups are in the minority in the NHL now. The Athletic has a good story on the Canadiens' push to build out a lacking analytics group under the new management:

How to build an analytics department: Montreal Canadiens (and others) prepare to join NHL's push into big data

“Some organizations that have added analytics people and used them for the draft have not only gotten some really talented players in the first round, but also players with a real future that will play in the NHL in later rounds,” said Thibaud Chatel, an analyst who has teams in Switzerland and France as clients. “I think of the Kings since Rob Vollman arrived. There’s Carolina that has done well and Toronto always seems to find prospects that can plug holes in their lineup, despite their limited possibilities tied to the salary cap.”

For some background on Vollman's role (and Hayden Speak's role, as well):

Meet the new talents giving the Kings a complete package ahead of the NHL Draft

 

[mysterman2]

Can people stop mentioning Bjornfoot, Anderson, Clarke and Faber in trades. How many regular everyday Dmen are as young as Bjorn and Mikey. At 26 they will be so much better than they are now. Clarke is our only possible Drew replacement.

This- Anderson is 22 and Bjornfot is 20. These guys are legit, if not unspectacular top 4 NHL dmen right now- how good will they be when fully matured and added experience? The upside for them is crazy high considering they are good right now at this very moment.

 

[bmr]

I think of all us agree that we need a top tier defenseman on the left side, but if we are going to give back a significant return I wouldn’t want to gut our prospect pool.

Definitely don’t want to get in a bidding war for Chychrun.

 

[LAKings88]

Turcotte/Kupari
+
Grans/Spence
+
#1 pick

That would be my offer.


JAD could be had too.

Excess to get need.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

Turcotte/Kupari
+
Grans/Spence
+
#1 pick

That would be my offer.


JAD could be had too.

Excess to get need.

Id give up Turcotte, TB and a first.

 

[Reaper45]

Chychrun is not that good.

 

[LAKings88]

Id give up Turcotte, TB and a first.

TB just creates another hole on the left. Not ideal.

Unless one of the RHD can move over to the left they aren’t going to have a spot.

Clarke and Faber are the real deal on the right.

 

[Trash Panda]

Chychrun is not that good.

He is the flavor of the week, that much is for sure.

He is a very good NHL defensemen, he just isn’t worth what is being proposed in some instances.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

He is the flavor of the week, that much is for sure.

He is a very good NHL defensemen, he just isn’t worth what is being proposed in some instances.

He’s NOT the flavor of the week. He’s had a GREAT start of his career and a bad year currently. Many people are dumbing him down due to this season, which is understandable but watch his clips to remind yourself of what you are getting. He’s got crazy wiggle and is a solid defender.