Rumor: Kypreos says Matthews will be 13.5M (Haggling over term)

[Soundwave]

If he wants 13.5 you sign him and move on. You're not going to not sign him, like that's not an option. It would be nice if he took a discount, but if he doesn't want to, you accept it and move on.

The cap will rise, you don't not pay a high end center who's won a couple of Rockets because you wanted to cheap out a few 100k.

 

[Boxscore]

If he wants 13.5 you sign him and move on. You're not going to not sign him, like that's not an option. It would be nice if he took a discount, but if he doesn't want to, you accept it and move on.

The cap will rise, you don't not pay a high end center who's won a couple of Rockets because you wanted to cheap out a few 100k.

Which is exactly what the Leafs will do. And they'll continue to get bounced in the playoffs.

 

[Soundwave]

Which is exactly what the Leafs will do. And they'll continue to get bounced in the playoffs.

15/16 teams get bounced out of the playoffs every year. It's not like there's some guarantee if he were to take 12.4 or something they win a Cup.

You pay your top players, the cap will be 90+ million eventually.

I probably would also suggest to Treleiving to not do his stupid "alienate the player in a negoitition because you're trying to save a few measly 100k" thing again. He did that with Gaudreau and Tkachuk in Calgary and it drove Gaudreau to UFA probably a year or so earlier than it needed to be and Tkachuk it drove him straight into a situation where he had all the leverage to leave.

 

[Boxscore]

15/16 teams get bounced out of the playoffs every year. It's not like there's some guarantee if he were to take 12.4 or something they win a Cup.

You pay your top players, the cap will be 90+ million eventually.

And this rationale would make more sense if Matthews was willing to commit long-term... so when the cap is "eventually 90 million" the Leafs can add depth once Matthews' cap hit starts becoming team-friendly. But Matthews only insists on signing short-term deals so when the cap rises, he negotiates a new deal and claims that extra cap space for himself. The term he demands is just as prohibitive as the salary he wants to be paid.

 

[Soundwave]

And this rationale would make more sense if Matthews was willing to commit long-term... so when the cap is "eventually 90 million" the Leafs can add depth once Matthews' cap hit starts becoming team-friendly. But Matthews only insists on signing short-term deals so when the cap rises, he negotiates a new deal and claims that extra cap space for himself. The term he demands is just as prohibitive and the salary.

OK so what is the alterative? You're going to trade the most talented player the team has had in like 30-40 years because you didn't want to pay a few hundred K above some arbitrary limit you set in your mind while the cap is set to explode by millions of dollars in the next 5 years?

That's not an option. You negotiate the best you deal you can and if his camp is not willing to budge past a certain point, you sign the contract and move on. No one in their right mind is trading a Matthews level player unless he has given clear indication that he won't play for the team.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If he wants 13.5 you sign him and move on. You're not going to not sign him, like that's not an option. It would be nice if he took a discount, but if he doesn't want to, you accept it and move on.

The cap will rise, you don't not pay a high end center who's won a couple of Rockets because you wanted to cheap out a few 100k.

This is a similar argument to what people defending the Tavares signing were making.

"If you can get a guy like him for free, it's a no brainer. Who cares if he's $2 million overpaid, you still do it."

No, it's flawed thinking to "overpay" a star just because. There's a salary cap. Every extra 500k or every extra $1 million matters a lot in order to flesh out your depth.

On top of that, it's flawed thinking to ignore a player's performance when it counts (ie. playoffs). Like I said earlier, it would be one thing if Matthews was a beast in the playoffs. Then "pay him his money" makes sense, even if it's pricey. But why should the Leafs pay a premium for a guy that's yet to show he can dominate a series, let alone an entire playoff run?

 

[Soundwave]

This is a similar argument to what people defending the Tavares signing were making.

"If you can get a guy like him for free, it's a no brainer. Who cares if he's $2 million overpaid, you still do it."

No, it's flawed thinking to "overpay" a star just because. There's a salary cap. Every extra 500k or every extra $1 million matters a lot in order to flesh out your depth.

On top of that, it's flawed thinking to ignore a player's performance when it counts (ie. playoffs). Like I said earlier, it would be one thing if Matthews was a beast in the playoffs. Then "pay him his money" makes sense, even if it's pricey. But why should the Leafs pay a premium for a guy that's yet to show he can dominate a series, let alone an entire playoff run?

So what's the alternative then?

You're going to trade the biggest talent the team has had in 30-40-50 years while he's in his mid-20s because he wouldn't give your a few 100k in discount?

This is the modern NHL, players have rights. They don't have to sign a contract they don't feel is good for them.

Frankly if the cap is going to go up 9-10 million in the next 3-4 years, then it isn't that unreasonable for Matthews to be at 13.5 when he's already at like 11 now.

Would it be nice if he took a discount ... sure. But I don't think it's the mindset of American players to do that when they are playing away from home to begin with. You're not likely getting any big discounts from US born players if you're a Canadian team. It just is what it is.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

So what's the alternative then?

You're going to trade the biggest talent the team has had in 30-40-50 years while he's in his mid-20s because he wouldn't give your a few 100k in discount?

This is the modern NHL, players have rights. They don't have to sign a contract they don't feel is good for them.

Frankly if the cap is going to go up 9-10 million in the next 3-4 years, then it isn't that unreasonable for Matthews to be at 13.5 when he's already at like 11 now.

Would it be nice if he took a discount ... sure. But I don't think it's the mindset of American players to do that when they are playing away from home to begin with.

Where are you getting the bolded? If the rumor is true, Matthews' asking price is way more than just a "few 100k discount", especially if the asking *term* is correct.

MacKinnon just signed for like $12.6 million per last summer, and for max term. Matthews wants about a million more than him and for much less term. That's not just "a few 100k overpaid".

 

[JianYang]

The leafs have no choice but to pay him. It's like the mcdavid situation. If the leafs have any shot at winning a cup, they need Matthews, and the oilers need mcdavid. They are not winning jack all without them, so you have to roll the dice and do whatever you can to keep them happy where they are.

Now, I'm not saying that Matthews is mcdavid. Obviously, one is significantly better than the other. I'm just comparing them in the sense that they are the flagship peices on their respective teams.

 

[Soundwave]

Where are you getting the bolded? If the rumor is true, Matthews' asking price is way more than just a "few 100k discount", especially if the asking *term* is correct.

MacKinnon just signed for like $12.6 million per last summer, and for max term. Matthews wants about a million more than him and for much less term. That's not just "a few 100k overpaid".

I said a few 100k, so that can be 500k-900k. Would it be nice if he shaved 500k-900k of his ask? Sure. Is he obligated to do that? No.

If he's not willing to do that, you sign him and move on with life. You're not going to trade the guy unless he says straight up he doesn't want to play for your team or wishes to be elsewhere (in which case you have a much bigger problem, don't have to ask Brad Trelieving about that).

Nathan MacKinnon won 1 Cup on a loaded team and what did he and Makar do this year? Got beat by an expansion team in round 1.

 

[TS Quint]

15/16 teams get bounced out of the playoffs every year. It's not like there's some guarantee if he were to take 12.4 or something they win a Cup.

You pay your top players, the cap will be 90+ million eventually.

I probably would also suggest to Treleiving to not do his stupid "alienate the player in a negoitition because you're trying to save a few measly 100k" thing again. He did that with Gaudreau and Tkachuk in Calgary and it drove Gaudreau to UFA probably a year or so earlier than it needed to be and Tkachuk it drove him straight into a situation where he had all the leverage to leave.

If you think the Matthews contract discussion centres around a couple hundred K you are really missing out.

 

[Stephen]

As a Leaf fan, it seems pretty straight forward we are going to lock up Matthews for as long as we can and the cap hit is going to be a record setting AAV surpassing the current high water mark by a million or a bit more. He's a top 3-5 player in the game, this is his time to re-negotiate and you can haggle over status, lack of playoff results, health, whatever but the shape of the deal seems to be there.

The friction you see all across the message board world is the AAV is already factoring in an unknown cap increase, so the Maple Leafs are already committing to spending an unknown, fictional cap.

It also sounds like Matthews wants shorter term, because that future cap increase is already not good enough. So it really feels like a two fold future-roofing for the player. All of this is to say the negotiations feel like a waste of time. Why not just peg the damn contract to a % of cap and be done with it?

In the zero sum player vs team vs fan snake pit Gary Bettman has created, Toronto is going to be expected to give up any chance of the deal amortizing to at least help the team build a more complete roster.

 

[x Tame Impala]

@Soundwave

Why are you saying “haggling over a few hundred thousand dollars”? The Leafs can’t win anything with Matthews NOW at his current $11.6 AAV and now he wants nearly $2 million more despite their best playoff showing since this core was assembled being advancing to the second round, going down 3-0 in that series, and only winning one game.

This formula isn’t working, now Matthews and very soon to be Marner will want even more money.

 

[Soundwave]

If you think the Matthews contract discussion centres around a couple hundred K you are really missing out.

I mean if the Leafs think they are getting Matthews for *millions* below a number of 13.5 ... that's not even realistic.

@Soundwave

Why are you saying “haggling over a few hundred thousand dollars”? The Leafs can’t win anything with Matthews NOW at his current $11.6 AAV and now he wants nearly $2 million more despite their best playoff showing since this core was assembled being advancing to the second round, going down 3-0 in that series, and only winning one game.

This formula isn’t working, now Matthews and very soon to be Marner will want even more money.

The cap is going up $9-$10 million in the next few years is it not?

The way this is phrased to some how supposes that by dumping Matthews and getting "cap space" the Leafs automatically win a Cup, when that also is laughable. There's no freaking guarantee of that at all either.

 

[x Tame Impala]

I mean if the Leafs think they are getting Matthews for *millions* below a number of 13.5 ... that's not even realistic.



The cap is going up $9-$10 million in the next few years is it not?

The way this is phrased to some how supposes that by dumping Matthews and getting "cap space" the Leafs automatically win a Cup, when that also is laughable. There's no freaking guarantee of that at all either.

No my post is pointing out that the Leafs lack of cap space is directly influencing their ability to win playoff series. That their star players are overpaid in relation to their team success. These new contract demands exacerbate this issue regardless of the cap hypothetically going up a large amount in the next few years.

 

[Soundwave]

No my post is pointing out that the Leafs lack of cap space is directly influencing their ability to win playoff series. That their star players are overpaid in relation to their team success. These new contract demands exacerbate this issue regardless of the cap hypothetically going up a large amount in the next few years.

So what? You're not trading the player. You sign them and hope the cap rises.

There's no guarantee whatsoever either that just because a player takes a discount that you automatically win a Cup.

There's 32 teams, it's hard to win a Cup, it's not even the 80s or 90s anymore when there was just like 21 teams.

 

[HabzSauce]

What percentage of the cap on 8 year term is fair deal for AM34?

And what cap hit is that percentage based off? Would that be based off the new cap kicking in for 2024-2025 at 87M?

 

[PajamaBoy]

Am34 doin the right thing. Should be asking for 15x7 tho

 

[Boxscore]

You're going to trade the biggest talent the team has had in 30-40-50 years

This is the problem. Matthews is an awesome player but the overhype is crazy.

And, I already answered your question -- I said the Leafs will overpay him. We agree. But they will also continue to not win anything come playoff time because doing that takes depth, character, leadership, and balance... which the Leafs won't have by overpaying Matthews and having to renegotiate with him every 3-4 years.

The Leafs will continue to be a very skilled and exciting team during the regular season. Then when the playoffs come around, they will keep falling short. It is what it is. Eventually Matthews is going to get tired of losing, or the pressure will finally mount and the fans will turn on him, and he'll demand a trade or walk for nothing after his pending short-term deal.

Have the last 7 years not proved that overpaying offensive finesse players and being a top-heavy team is a losing recipe in the playoffs? We have won 1 round in 7 years. No deep runs. No Cup Finals. Not even a Conference Finals appearance. We didn't even make it out of the 2nd round lol. What more do we need to see?

But, sure, let's keep doing the same thing as long as Matthews is happy.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

AM34 is gonna put the cape on and be a hero and a stand up guy for the first time in his entire career , you heard it here first.

 

[Soundwave]

This is the problem. Matthews is an awesome player but the overhype is crazy.

And, I already answered your question -- I said the Leafs will overpay him. We agree. But they will also continue to not win anything come playoff time because doing that takes depth, character, leadership, and balance... which the Leafs won't have by overpaying Matthews and having to renegotiate with him every 3-4 years.

The Leafs will continue to be a very skilled and exciting team during the regular season. Then when the playoffs come around, they will keep falling short. It is what it is. Eventually Matthews is going to get tired of losing, or the pressure will finally mount and the fans will turn on him, and he'll demand a trade or walk for nothing after his pending short-term deal.

What's a realistic scenario here?

Putting a gun to the player's head and forcing them to sign a deal they don't want to?

You're not trading him unless he expressly asks for a trade out.

So basically the only option is to take your chances and sign him. 13.5 or even 14 will eventually be against a 90 mill cap.

 

[Boxscore]

The leafs have no choice but to pay him. It's like the mcdavid situation. If the leafs have any shot at winning a cup, they need Matthews, and the oilers need mcdavid. They are not winning jack all without them, so you have to roll the dice and do whatever you can to keep them happy where they are.

Now, I'm not saying that Matthews is mcdavid. Obviously, one is significantly better than the other. I'm just comparing them in the sense that they are the flagship peices on their respective teams.

You're not wrong, but this recipe has been a disaster in the playoffs. It played out in Philly when the Flyers were paying Giroux and Voracek the way the Pens were paying Crosby and Malkin. Your point is well-taken, but paying Matthews like he's McDavid (or even MacKinnon) has proved to be a losing proposition and it places the Leafs at a clear disadvantage... especially on short-term deals. Taking a hit on a long-term commitment is still problematic but could be sustainable with a little help from future cap increases.

 

[Boxscore]

Nathan MacKinnon won 1 Cup on a loaded team and what did he and Makar do this year? Got beat by an expansion team in round 1.

This is nonsense. MacKinnon and Makar both carried their weight and were big parts of that Cup win. MacKinnon, on the heels of publicly challenging his teammates to get their diets and fitness in order. Say what you want but MacKinnon has his Cup. He also scored 111 points last year in 71 games while Matthews was scoring 85 points in 75 games.

And the Avs were a loaded team? Okay. Wait, we were told the Leafs are a loaded team too, no? Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Rielly, O'Reilly... we were told our core was among the absolute greatest on the planet which is why they all need to be paid anything they want. How come our "loaded team" has only won 1 round in 7 years? If you say it's because the Avs were deeper -- then, yes, they probably were. Why? Because their superstars take less money on contracts so they can pay superior depth players. Can't have it both ways lol.

Oh, and when the Avs won the Cup, their 2nd line C missed most of the Cup games. That would be like the Leafs missing Tavares during a round and still winning.

 

[Boxscore]

What's a realistic scenario here?

Putting a gun to the player's head and forcing them to sign a deal they don't want to?

You're not trading him unless he expressly asks for a trade out.

So basically the only option is to take your chances and sign him. 13.5 or even 14 will eventually be against a 90 mill cap.

A realistic scenario is to first, bypass the agent, period. It's a high-risk play that could burn some bridges, but Shanny needs to look Matthews in the eye, man to man, and explain the situation to him and see where his heart truly is. Because, I'll tell you, if this kid is solely in it for the money and nothing else, the Leafs will never win with him. Never.

And, if the Leafs feel this is the case... give him 3 offers...

1. 13 mil x 1 year.

2. 13.5 x 3 years without a NMC

3. 13.5 x 8 years with a NMC

That pretty much gives him one of each avenue to pick. But it also gives the Leafs some protection. If he refuses to sign any of them... drag him through the mud publicly... let the fans see how much of a greedy brat he is... let him walk next year as a villain and put that 13.5 mil into other players who want to be Toronto Maple Leafs.

Now, none of this ^ will happen because the Leafs brass are soft as hell and big part of the reason we're in this mess to begin with, but something needs to give with this kid.

 

[notbias]

And this rationale would make more sense if Matthews was willing to commit long-term... so when the cap is "eventually 90 million" the Leafs can add depth once Matthews' cap hit starts becoming team-friendly. But Matthews only insists on signing short-term deals so when the cap rises, he negotiates a new deal and claims that extra cap space for himself. The term he demands is just as prohibitive as the salary he wants to be paid.

We get him for his prime if he is medium-term... people are complaining about what Karlsson makes but you want to keep Matthews for those years at 13.5, it makes no sense to me.