Rumor: Kypreos says Matthews will be 13.5M (Haggling over term)

[notbias]

You think the opinion of Matthews playoff ability was made in 5 games? Thats just another straw on the camels back. His entire history is a big drop off in production from regular season to playoffs.

Matthews contributed to that .950%.

He is PPG in the last three years... his issues are largely overblown.

He has one playoff series that is terrible which brings down his numbers.

Matthews normally dominates the play, it is his sh% that brings down his numbers. Maybe he is not getting to the right areas of the ice to get his shot off, but that is not what any statistic that tracks that sort of thing says.

The eye test says he also dominates and gets shots off from the right spots, but lacks finishing ability.

Maybe it is because he is nervous and hits more posts than usual or shoots slower so goalies have more time to react, not sure, but he has also played some goalies who have stood on their heads all series, most notably again Columbus, Montreal, and Florida.

Lastly, results matter, but Matthews has been playing great but terrible finishing, that is my takeaway from his playing time. Playoffs should be held against him, but not to the extent some people do.

 

[gach]

38 pages and don't even know if rumor is true

 

[Malkinstheman]

Draisiatl is probably licking his lips at the thought of Matthews getting 13m+. Whatever AM gets is the bare minimum that Draisiatl will make. Dudes gonna get absolutely paid next summer.

 

[PainForShane]

He is PPG in the last three years... his issues are largely overblown.

He has one playoff series that is terrible which brings down his numbers.

View attachment 733491

Matthews normally dominates the play, it is his sh% that brings down his numbers. Maybe he is not getting to the right areas of the ice to get his shot off, but that is not what any statistic that tracks that sort of thing says.

The eye test says he also dominates and gets shots off from the right spots, but lacks finishing ability.

Maybe it is because he is nervous and hits more posts than usual or shoots slower so goalies have more time to react, not sure, but he has also played some goalies who have stood on their heads all series, most notably again Columbus, Montreal, and Florida.

Lastly, results matter, but Matthews has been playing great but terrible finishing, that is my takeaway from his playing time. Playoffs should be held against him, but not to the extent some people do.

I think most rational ppl would agree with your last sentence.

Imo the problem is the context that being the highest paid player in the world will provide.

To use examples from other sports, in tennis when it's 5-5 in the fifth set, Federer, Nadal consistently raise their game, meaning they play better when the pressure is on. Djokovic goes a different direction and basically stops missing, which is a weirder strategy but equally effective in a sport like tennis. Either way all of them elevate their games when it matters most. Same with MJ and Lebron, Messi, Mbappe, Tom Brady, Patty Mahomes etc etc. Take any all-time great and they all consistently elevate their games when it matters most.

***

Is it fair to compare AM34 to an all-time great? No, of course not, he's currently 25 years old and so far he's won a single Hart trophy. Sure he scores a lot of goals but at this stage of his career it's not even remotely close to fair to compare him to an all-time great.

Except. He's going to become the game's highest paid player in a sport that is fairly relevant globally. And the highest paid player in a sport like this... well, the highest paid player in any sport should be able to consistently raise their games when it matters most, AM34 hasn't been able to do that yet. Still plenty of time, but he hasn't done that yet (neither did MJ his first few years in the league either).

***

Honestly I think that's what this is about. In an alternate universe where the Leafs had won the last two cups, no one cares if AM34 gets paid 13.5m or even 15m a year. No one would care, the same way no one cares that MacK makes slightly more than McD. But unfortunately, AM34 doesn't have a history of playoff success, I'd even argue he's played worse in elimination games than he usually does in the reg season.

So I personally just find it very weird that Auston Matthews is looking to become the world's highest paid player right now. Especially because his team still has huge / obvious holes in its roster and that salary not only makes it harder to patch up those holes (ie will make it even harder for him to win in the playoffs). Help your team win something first, you know? This whole thing just seems extremely weird to me

 

[keglu]

That's actually a really strong argument for Matthews. Matthews as a rookie had more points than Eichel's career high when he signed.

Matthews signed in his third season, not his second. Eichel signed on a lower cap than Matthews.

At the time of signing, Matthews had played 38 games and had 23G 23A 46P. Also it's not a good argument to make that Eichel is on a lower scoring teams if you're arguing he's a comparable player. The logical argument would be his team is lower scoring because he doesn't product as much as Matthews. At the time Matthews was drafted, we were hearing about how much ahead Buffalo's rebuild was than Toronto's. Buffalo also finished higher in the standings and scored more goals than the Leafs the season prior to acquiring Matthews.

If we're using Eichel as the comparable, Matthews took a discount.

I was arguing Matthews was closer to Eichel than to McDavid. Nothing you said addressed this argument.

 

[The Management]

Honestly I think that's what this is about. In an alternate universe where the Leafs had won the last two cups, no one cares if AM34 gets paid 13.5m or even 15m a year. No one would care, the same way no one cares that MacK makes slightly more than McD. But unfortunately, AM34 doesn't have a history of playoff success, I'd even argue he's played worse in elimination games than he usually does in the reg season.

So I personally just find it very weird that Auston Matthews is looking to become the world's highest paid player right now. Especially because his team still has huge / obvious holes in its roster and that salary not only makes it harder to patch up those holes (ie will make it even harder for him to win in the playoffs). Help your team win something first, you know? This whole thing just seems extremely weird to me

I appreciate your point. I've never been particularly good with math (an understatement, my highschool math teacher would tell you). I believe when you adjust for the cap inflation in the first year of Matthews' next contract, an AAV of $13.5M puts him, essentially, in Nathan MacKinnon territory in terms of cap percentage.

MacKinnon is the better, more decorated player, but I don't think it'd be overrating Matthews to call them peers. MacKinnon is probably the second or third best center in the league, and Matthews is probably fourth? I don't know, but they're in the same postal code. It's all this talk about a three or five year term that troubles me, particularly if we're still talking about that type of cap hit.

I do not disagree that it would preferable, as a fan, to see him take a bit of a haircut or come back on a more team friendly deal and prove his doubters wrong, but talents of this caliber are exceedingly rare finds in the NHL. He has been essentially everything you want out of a first overall draft pick and franchise center, sans success in the postseason. I agree that wart on his resume is certainly a factor, but at the end of the day, we're in a situation where we either pay the man and try to retool around him, or tear down the walls hoping to draft another one.

Anyway, I probably lost the point in there somewhere, but it's a tough league to build a winner in.

 

[rojac]

I appreciate your point. I've never been particularly good with math (an understatement, my highschool math teacher would tell you). I believe when you adjust for the cap inflation in the first year of Matthews' next contract, an AAV of $13.5M puts him, essentially, in Nathan MacKinnon territory in terms of cap percentage.

MacKinnon is the better, more decorated player, but I don't think it'd be overrating Matthews to call them peers. MacKinnon is probably the second or third best center in the league, and Matthews is probably fourth? I don't know, but they're in the same postal code. It's all this talk about a three or five year term that troubles me, particularly if we're still talking about that type of cap hit.

I do not disagree that it would preferable, as a fan, to see him take a bit of a haircut or come back on a more team friendly deal and prove his doubters wrong, but talents of this caliber are exceedingly rare finds in the NHL. He has been essentially everything you want out of a first overall draft pick and franchise center, sans success in the postseason. I agree that wart on his resume is certainly a factor, but at the end of the day, we're in a situation where we either pay the man and try to retool around him, or tear down the walls hoping to draft another one.

Anyway, I probably lost the point in there somewhere, but it's a tough league to build a winner in.

How is MacKinnon more decorated? Just be cause he won a cup?

MacKinnon has played 3 seasons more than Matthews and has won:

1 Stanley Cup
1 Lady Byng
1 Calder
5 times selected to NHL All-Star Game
2 times voted to end-of-year All-Star teams (both were Second team)

Matthews has won:

1 Hart
1 Lindsay
2 Rockets
1 Calder
6 times selected to NHL All-Star Game
2 times voted to end-of-year All-Star teams (one First Team, one Second team)

I can see an argument for calling MacKinnon a better player, but I can't see one for ca him more decorated.

 

[drktmplr12]

5 game sample sizes are always the best indicator of a player's ability over an 82 game sample size.

Not sure Bobrovsky gives them .950 goaltending in a larger sample size, could be wrong though.

so what you are saying is, when it counted, bobrovsky elevated his game more than Matthews

i would contend that for at least one post season he was deserving of his $10m cap hit.

 

[gritdash60]

If you want to keep him, and who wouldn't you pay him what he wants. If he wants 13.5 thats what he gets its just a question if your team is the one to do it.

It's only about if you believe the "the cap is surely going up by 10m in the next couple years". Or if you feel like there might be another covid or similar kind of situation. If it goes up, sure it's a decent contract, if we get some bullshit and it doesn't, oh boy.

 

[notbias]

so what you are saying is, when it counted, bobrovsky elevated his game more than Matthews

i would contend that for at least one post season he was deserving of his $10m cap hit.

No, when it counted Bobrovsky reverted to the sieve he is.

 

[Golden_Jet]

No, when it counted Bobrovsky reverted to the sieve he is.

No, Vegas is just a better team,
and panthers lost Tkachuk, and was injured when could play, as well as Ekblad.

 

[drktmplr12]

No, when it counted Bobrovsky reverted to the sieve he is.

keep moving the goalposts and throwing shade, but this thread is about AM, not bobrovsky

 

[Nothingbutglass]

If he is asking for 3 year term as is being rumored, he obviously isn't prioritizing financial security over chance of injury. He might as well play out his last year and hit UFA. Just do the "love the Leafs but wont negotiate during the season and distract the team from its cup run" media spin and then hit market.

 

[centipede2233]

I love Matthew’s as a player and the things he can do on the ice, but I dislike his attitude towards the business side of the game.

Taking an extra few million so you can brag about being the highest paid player etc, while further hurting your chances of actually winning something, is selfish. No other way to put it IMO.

Yes you have the leverage, but should you really use it? I fear he’s not going to figure out how to win, until he’s at the tail end of his career and no longer the centre piece.

Attitude and maturity is such an important trat(s) too,have for an nhl player. Matthews buying a 67 million mansion in Arizona just confirms what he’s all about. Can’t stand the guy , I miss the gilmour and clark days, actually likeable players who gave it everything they had over these cream puffs who want to extract every possible dollar with as little exertion as possible.

 

[GCK]

Basically. Imagine a team is willing to make you the highest cap hit in the league and you can't sign it and you want less term lol. Team player baby

Good for him. Teams leverage players all the time. For example:

Hey Matt, if you don’t agree to go on LTIR for the entire season we are buying you out. As fans we say that it’s a smart move by management.

When a player uses his leverage we get all upset.

Draisiatl is probably licking his lips at the thought of Matthews getting 13m+. Whatever AM gets is the bare minimum that Draisiatl will make. Dudes gonna get absolutely paid next summer.

MacKinnon set the bar, Matthews takes it higher, Draisitl resets it before McDavid moves it higher.

 

[eojsmada]

Good for him. Teams leverage players all the time. For example:

Hey Matt, if you don’t agree to go on LTIR for the entire season we are buying you out. As fans we say that it’s a smart move by management.

When a player uses his leverage we get all upset.

That's literally zero team leverage. Murray would have gotten his buyout PLUS a new contract at a higher $ amount than what he was getting paid for. That is...if Murray was not BS'ing everyone when he said he was healthy and "Ready to go."

Good for him. Teams leverage players all the time. For example:

Hey Matt, if you don’t agree to go on LTIR for the entire season we are buying you out. As fans we say that it’s a smart move by management.

When a player uses his leverage we get all upset.


MacKinnon set the bar, Matthews takes it higher, Draisitl resets it before McDavid moves it higher.

MacKinnon set the bar after he won a Cup. The devil is in the details.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Attitude and maturity is such an important trat(s) too,have for an nhl player. Matthews buying a 67 million mansion in Arizona just confirms what he’s all about. Can’t stand the guy , I miss the gilmour and clark days, actually likeable players who gave it everything they had over these cream puffs who want to extract every possible dollar with as little exertion as possible.

Do you you know how expensive real estate is in the GTA?

 

[HTFN]

I appreciate your point. I've never been particularly good with math (an understatement, my highschool math teacher would tell you). I believe when you adjust for the cap inflation in the first year of Matthews' next contract, an AAV of $13.5M puts him, essentially, in Nathan MacKinnon territory in terms of cap percentage.

MacKinnon is the better, more decorated player, but I don't think it'd be overrating Matthews to call them peers. MacKinnon is probably the second or third best center in the league, and Matthews is probably fourth? I don't know, but they're in the same postal code. It's all this talk about a three or five year term that troubles me, particularly if we're still talking about that type of cap hit.

I do not disagree that it would preferable, as a fan, to see him take a bit of a haircut or come back on a more team friendly deal and prove his doubters wrong, but talents of this caliber are exceedingly rare finds in the NHL. He has been essentially everything you want out of a first overall draft pick and franchise center, sans success in the postseason. I agree that wart on his resume is certainly a factor, but at the end of the day, we're in a situation where we either pay the man and try to retool around him, or tear down the walls hoping to draft another one.

Anyway, I probably lost the point in there somewhere, but it's a tough league to build a winner in.

Oh he definitely needs the haircut either way

 

[Golden_Jet]

That is...if Murray was not BS'ing everyone when he said he was healthy and "Ready to go."

The team doctors declared him healthy, that why he was available, in the second round, and dressed for the last game, and got dressed in middle of game 4.

 

[centipede2233]

Do you you know how expensive real estate is in the GTA?

I’m on disability and I don’t even work, and I live in downtown Vancouver….

 

[drktmplr12]

who is the outlier????

 

[Divine]

I was arguing Matthews was closer to Eichel than to McDavid. Nothing you said addressed this argument.

Your argument is based on your feelings though, it's not a factual argument.. The numbers point in the opposite direction so I don’t know what you want me to say.

At the time of signing their contract:

McDavid: 1.165 PPG
Matthews: 0.989 PPG
Eichel: 0.795PPG

Just mathematically, 0.989PPG is closer to 1.165 than 0.795PPG.


I can’t argue with how you feel so I won’t try to.

 

[dirtydanglez]

Do you you know how expensive real estate is in the GTA?

in canadian dollars tho.

 

[drktmplr12]

Good for him. Teams leverage players all the time. For example:

Hey Matt, if you don’t agree to go on LTIR for the entire season we are buying you out. As fans we say that it’s a smart move by management.

When a player uses his leverage we get all upset.


MacKinnon set the bar, Matthews takes it higher, Draisitl resets it before McDavid moves it higher.

All of the above signed for 8 years. It isn't hard to understand if he wants 5 years he should get less AAV.

But he is rumored to want to be the highest paid player and sign for a few years. E.g. Have his his cake and eat it too.

 

[Divine]

All of the above signed for 8 years. It isn't hard to understand if he wants 5 years he should get less AAV.

But he is rumored to want to be the highest paid player and sign for a few years. E.g. Have his his cake and eat it too.

This would be a bigger issue if he signed long term. Short term works better for the team unless you think Matthews in 8 years will be better than Matthews today.

In a UFA 8 year deal, you underpay at the start and overpay at the end. If the term is short term, you do not have an opportunity to lower the cap hit near the end, however you're not carrying the end of a declining contract like Chicago had to with Toews/Kane. Those two were making 10.5M last year, would any team have signed them to the same contract the last 3 years (10.5M X remaining term)? If Karlsson was a UFA, would you sign him to an 11.5M X 4 contract (his remaining years)?

I think lower term benefits the team more than the player, with potential injuries or decline the team is not locked in for almost a decade. I understand why the player would want more on a shorter term, you're only paying for his best years. He's at the point where you're expecting diminishing returns soon.

I don't understand why he would want a short term contract, unless he feels for the next 8 years he will be a 13M+ player even if he keeps having to re-sign. However, in my opinion, it benefits the Leafs that he does.