Rumor: Kypreos says Matthews will be 13.5M (Haggling over term)

[Divine]

Completely different salary caps. One is a hard cap and the other is a 2 threshold tax penalty.

Not every team goes over the cap, every team gives out max contracts though.

 

[GCK]

Not every team goes over the cap, every team gives out max contracts though.

You are missing the point. If the NBA had a hard cap then distribution of talent would be higher creating more parity.

 

[Mr Positive]

A component management group would have dealt a player like this out when hes trying to punk them on a deal he isnt and wont be worth.

MLSE + Shanny + Treliving finishing Dubas's job and killing any chances we have to win

You need elite players to win. Maybe Matthews is the type to push for an extra million but in the big picture does it really kill the chance to win? It puts pressure on Treliving to find a bargain elsewhere. Dubas did that with guys like Bunting.

 

[Divine]

You are missing the point. If the NBA had a hard cap then distribution of talent would be higher creating more parity.

I don't think you realize there's a limit of 3 max contracts per team (one must be acquired via trade to hit that limit) in the NBA. Even with that said, max contracts are handed out relatively easily.

 

[PainForShane]

Can you enlighten me as to what D Lou built out in NY? As far as I can tell, their #1 and 2 were there before him, as was their #4. He drafted Dobson who most would have a hard time attributing the word “defense” to, and then paid twice as much for a bottom pairing defenseman in Romanov than he got for a top pairing defenseman on a cup winner in Towes. He didn’t draft Sorokin either.

Is his building out the D just signing a few RFAs to market rate deals?

In fact, can you tell me who the best D Lou acquired via trade or UFA is in the last, oh 20 years let’s say? Re-signing RFAs who were already in the system before he arrived doesn’t count.

Why does this “build from the net out” myth keep getting told about him? It’s a complete farce, other than acquiring Schneider and Freddy he has done almost nothing useful in the better part of two decades to build from the net out. Signing buyout candidates to 8 year deals and 35+ corpses to play top 4 minutes is desperation not strategy.

Fair point(s) about the Isles, he did inherit most of it. And if you already have a strong D core (like he mostly inherited with the Isles), you don't really need to acquire more strong defensemen, you're already set on D.

For me it's more about what he did in Jersey. Wayne called the Devils a Mickey Mouse organization (he was right), Lou stepped in with a tiny budget and somehow was able to turn his team into a legitimate contender for something like 15 years, missing the playoffs once during that time. By building from the net out.

Obviously having Brodeur helps, but during that time Devils' forwards were generally horrible (Patrick Elias was the only one consistently worth anything, maybe Scott Gomez at times). Scott Stevens was great defensively and their heart and soul player but he didn't even score 30 points most years (am only counting his time w the Devils here).

That's not to say NJ couldn't score at all, there were a couple of years in there they were right at the top of league scoring. But they never had elite forwards. And still, the team was a legitimate cup contender more often than not from 1994/95 to around 2010 or so, 3 cups as well. The team was always built from Brodeur out.

***

With Lou and NYI my guess (based on no reporting at all) is it was probably more Islanders mgmt like, "ok we're sort of built like the old Devils who should be overseeing this," and no one understands that type of team better than Lou.

So yeah. No huge conspiracy, Lou's just good at running / managing that type of team, like he showed in Jersey and is now showing with NYI

 

[Martin Skoula]

Fair point(s) about the Isles, he did inherit most of it. And if you already have a strong D core (like he mostly inherited with the Isles), you don't really need to acquire more strong defensemen, you're already set on D.

For me it's more about what he did in Jersey. Wayne called the Devils a Mickey Mouse organization (he was right), Lou stepped in with a tiny budget and somehow was able to turn his team into a legitimate contender for something like 15 years, missing the playoffs once during that time. By building from the net out.

Obviously having Brodeur helps, but during that time Devils' forwards were generally horrible (Patrick Elias was the only one consistently worth anything, maybe Scott Gomez at times). Scott Stevens was great defensively and their heart and soul player but he didn't even score 30 points most years (am only counting his time w the Devils here).

That's not to say NJ couldn't score at all, there were a couple of years in there they were right at the top of league scoring. But they never had elite forwards. And still, the team was a legitimate cup contender more often than not from 1994/95 to around 2010 or so, 3 cups as well. The team was always built from Brodeur out.

***

With Lou and NYI my guess (based on no reporting at all) is it was probably more Islanders mgmt like, "ok we're sort of built like the old Devils who should be overseeing this," and no one understands that type of team better than Lou.

So yeah. No huge conspiracy, Lou's just good at running / managing that type of team, like he showed in Jersey and is now showing with NYI

So in the almost 20 years since the cap was implemented would I be correct in saying that the most significant defenseman that Lou has acquired via trade or UFA is one of Nikita Zaitsev, Andy Greene, Ron Hainsey or Romanov? If we expand that to also include defensemen drafted and developed under Lou, we get Adam Larson and Dobson?

Would I also be correct that of all defenseman transactions that Lou has been involved with post-cap, the single best one by an absolute massive AINEC margin would be trading away a 26 year old cost-controlled Towes he inherited for a pair of nothing picks so he could keep Komarov and some other broken down overpaid grinders?

Would it be fair to say that every single general manager in the league has acquired or drafted and developed at least one defenseman better than anyone Lou acquired in his entire post-cap career?

Bryce Salvador - Marek Zidlicky

Andy Greene - Mark Fayne

Anton Volchenkov - Peter Harrold

This is his defense in the 2012 run, would you describe this as having been built from the net out?

I don’t see how we can reach any conclusion other than Lou has been the single worst GM in the cap era at acquiring, drafting, and developing defensemen. Maybe I’m missing some short lived interim GM here or there, but most GMs can and do outperform Lou’s post-cap career on acquiring D in a single season, the only ones that take longer are ones in active tanking phases. Maybe Chiarelli in Edmonton is the closest thing to a tie, but that’s just because Larson ends up a wash for the both of them, and even that’s debatable because Klefbom was arguably better until the injuries.

The absolute funniest thing about it all is that his one signature defenseman he ever acquired wasn’t even his decision, an arbitrator decided to gift him Stevens for the Shanahan offer sheet!

 

[PainForShane]

So in the almost 20 years since the cap was implemented would I be correct in saying that the most significant defenseman that Lou has acquired via trade or UFA is one of Nikita Zaitsev, Andy Greene, Ron Hainsey or Romanov? If we expand that to also include defensemen drafted and developed under Lou, we get Adam Larson and Dobson?

Would I also be correct that of all defenseman transactions that Lou has been involved with post-cap, the single best one by an absolute massive AINEC margin would be trading away a 26 year old cost-controlled Towes he inherited for a pair of nothing picks so he could keep Komarov and some other broken down overpaid grinders?

Would it be fair to say that every single general manager in the league has acquired or drafted and developed at least one defenseman better than anyone Lou acquired in his entire post-cap career?

The top question is worded badly. I think everyone knows that in Jersey he focused on his D and signed plenty of d-men, guys like Andy Greene (who he later reacquired and re-signed for a couple years in NYI), Paul Martin, Johnny Oduya, Bryce Salvador etc etc. There are so many examples, most of these guys were better on the defensive side of things. The volume is what matters, it clearly shows he took building the D corps seriously in NJD.

If the point you're looking to make to is that Lou didn't build out the D in NYI, you're right, he mostly inherited it. But since he already has a strong D, why does it matter that he didn't build the whole thing himself. It's already a strong group he just has to run things.

If the point you're looking to make is that Lou is the worst GM in the league at drafting / developing D (like you heavily implied in last paragraph), you are 100% wrong because you have to give him credit for developing the D he inherited in NYI, you also have to give him credit for developing Morgan Reilly (and the rest of the Leafs D) for the couple years overlap they had. He also used relatively high (ie valuable) draft picks to draft Lily and Dermott so there's that too. Lastly his track record in Jersey clearly shows he acquired plenty of impact defensive defensemen and heavily focused on the defensive side of things during the 30 years or whatever that he was running that team.

Honestly not sure what overall point you're trying to steer toward with your questions, probably easier to just say what you're getting at

 

[PainForShane]

@Martin Skoula just saw your edit, I think you're saying crazy things.

Going to bed. I'll put together a proper response tomorrow lunch or after work depending.

That said, I really do sincerely appreciate your detailed / easy to follow edit, even though I absolutely do think you're saying crazy things ha

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Lou sucks just as much as (probably more) than Dubas now make up boys

 

[Fatass]

I keep reading posts in this thread about Lou Lam. Is there a chance Lou goes after Matthews July 1, 2024? Would Lou go to 15 mil over three years or even more just to get the Leafs’ best player?

 

[sr edler]

There's just something with Matthews that's a bit off. I remember some old quote of his where he said he wanted to tilt more towards playmaking, because that's what the greatest Cs of all time did. He's had 1 such season in 7 years. He seems too comfortable in his current lane.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Matthews. Marner. Nylander.

Pay. Cheque. Players.

It really is that simple. They play with the intensity of soft serve ice cream.

They get no respect.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

McDavid has 4th highest PPG in PO history.

Just ahead of Barry Pederson.

Wow.

 

[TS Quint]

Starting to reach baseball player salaries without the same salary caps. Every team wants a star player, but I'm predicting another lockout in the future to reign back in salaries because how to build a competitive team when nearly 20% of your cap is spent on one player?

owners don't care. It’s a 50/50 revenue split. It does cost them a penny more if the top players take 20% or 10%.

 

[TS Quint]

Human nature:

Matthews shouldn't care about his cap hit.

The Leafs should.

If the Leafs feel Matthews can get the same money on multiple teams, sign him. If not, show him the market isn't there.

It's a matter of what's more valuable: Matthews or cap space. A short term deal heavily favours the Leafs though, which is why Matthews position makes no sense to me. It allows them to pivot if his wrist injuries continue or pursue Drai/McDavid.

No, you’re not selling him on what the market is. He already wants above market based on his term. You are selling him on team success being more valuable than one more ivory back scratcher. Not that they need to get some stupid low $ but if he wants to be one of the top paid players he needs to take 8 years (or most available years) like the VAST majority of top paid players outside of the Leafs (because they can and they will!). The low term is what makes him a selfish player.

Maybe it’s the Leafs who need to realize there is a market out there for him. If there are multiple teams that want him I’d trade him for a haul. He’s a loser. He’s not the guy who is going to put the team on his back when it matters, he just wants to be paid like it. He they guy who makes a home game against the Coyotes in January fun.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

You are missing the point. If the NBA had a hard cap then distribution of talent would be higher creating more parity.

My understanding is the new NBA CBA is more of "hard" cap with how teams are limited if they're over the 2nd threshold. Will be interesting to see how it impacts team construction.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The top question is worded badly. I think everyone knows that in Jersey he focused on his D and signed plenty of d-men, guys like Andy Greene (who he later reacquired and re-signed for a couple years in NYI), Paul Martin, Johnny Oduya, Bryce Salvador etc etc. There are so many examples, most of these guys were better on the defensive side of things. The volume is what matters, it clearly shows he took building the D corps seriously in NJD.

If the point you're looking to make to is that Lou didn't build out the D in NYI, you're right, he mostly inherited it. But since he already has a strong D, why does it matter that he didn't build the whole thing himself. It's already a strong group he just has to run things.

If the point you're looking to make is that Lou is the worst GM in the league at drafting / developing D (like you heavily implied in last paragraph), you are 100% wrong because you have to give him credit for developing the D he inherited in NYI, you also have to give him credit for developing Morgan Reilly (and the rest of the Leafs D) for the couple years overlap they had. He also used relatively high (ie valuable) draft picks to draft Lily and Dermott so there's that too. Lastly his track record in Jersey clearly shows he acquired plenty of impact defensive defensemen and heavily focused on the defensive side of things during the 30 years or whatever that he was running that team.

Honestly not sure what overall point you're trying to steer toward with your questions, probably easier to just say what you're getting at

Your original point was the following:

2) Re: Lou, he was with the Leafs for three years, which is not much time for a GM. Given Lou's track record in NJ and NYI, it's apparent he builds from the net out, and given more time, his track record strongly suggests he would've done the same thing in Toronto.

I’m not seeing a track record of Lou acquiring impact defensemen since the cap was implemented to suggest that he would have fixed the defense. He had 3 years to bring in someone, anyone, on D and the best he managed was a retirement age Ron Hainsey and a buyout candidate Zaitsev that he signed to an abhorrent contract. If his NYI track record is anything to go off of, his next move would have been trading away Rielly for a pair of 2nds to keep Marleau and replace Rielly’s minutes with a 35+ UFA.

 

[PainForShane]

I keep reading posts in this thread about Lou Lam. Is there a chance Lou goes after Matthews July 1, 2024? Would Lou go to 15 mil over three years or even more just to get the Leafs’ best player?

Unlikely in my opinion, the way the Islanders are constructed he'd need to clear up a LOT of cap space to make a run at Matthews, including probably Barzal or Sorokin + a decent roster player. Doesn't seem too likely in my opinion.

The Dubas-led Penguins? Potentially a different story. If they decide to not re-sign Guentzel, and if they're able to do something about Petry's contract (which will be difficult but might be possible), they're going to be able to take a swing.

If you're curious about this for yourself, I'd recommend taking a quick look through capfriendly and just seeing when teams' various contracts expire, if you do that you'll generally get a good sense of things and be more aware of the possibilities than most ppl in the media.

The overall point though is if Matthews gets to free agency he'll have quite a few teams giving him some insane offer, especially if the cap goes up 4 to 5 mil like the news ppl seem to be suggesting

 

[PainForShane]

Your original point was the following:



I’m not seeing a track record of Lou acquiring impact defensemen since the cap was implemented to suggest that he would have fixed the defense. He had 3 years to bring in someone, anyone, on D and the best he managed was a retirement age Ron Hainsey and a buyout candidate Zaitsev that he signed to an abhorrent contract. If his NYI track record is anything to go off of, his next move would have been trading away Rielly for a pair of 2nds to keep Marleau and replace Rielly’s minutes with a 35+ UFA.

Top level response:
1) He absolutely built / developed / acquired defensive guys during his time in Jersey, you can't really look at their 2012 roster as proof of anything because that was at the tail end after 15 years of competing ie mostly not picking high draft picks. Any team who's been competing for 15 years is going to have a crap roster at the end of it. To actually explore this, what I'd really want to do is see if the Devils were winning from 1995-2010 due to low GA / not allowing scoring opportunities, which would imply a team more focused on preventing goals rather than scoring them (ie being built from the net out). I'm pretty sure this is what we'd find, but I haven't looked at the numbers.

2) Re: addressing the defense, he did not do shit while in Toronto, on that everyone agrees

3) Re: NYI, he arguably also did not do shit, but he basically inherited one of the league's best defensive defense (and a goaltender who would become elite), so he really didn't have to do anything. Put another way, who else is he supposed to acquire, he already has Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield, the other Sebastian Aho etc. I personally also believe something like "the defense-first way the Isles were built is probably a main reason the two sides decided to work together" but neither one of us will be able to prove that either way, it is pure speculation.

***

For me, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, so I think if given time in Toronto he would've addressed the D at some point, esp if Leafs couldn't win in the playoffs. This is a reasonable opinion.

It sounds like you are saying something like, "Lou didn't fix the D in Toronto and I don't really give him credit for anything he did in NYI because he inherited that team, 1 out of 3 (if it is even that) is not representative of anything. More importantly, he didn't do shit to fix Toronto's D in the 3 years he was there, why would he suddenly change his tune in years 4, 5, 6 etc." And that is a reasonable opinion too.

As an aside, there's also the question of how much say he actually had in Toronto (it was widely reported he didn't have final authority), that is a completely different discussion.

***

I'm good if you are. Both of us might be right, both of us might be wrong, most likely somewhere in the middle. No one will ever really know.

Either way appreciate the good faith / relatively detailed discussion. Even if it is taking place in a Matthews thread ha

 

[Divine]

Top level response:
1) He absolutely built / developed / acquired defensive guys during his time in Jersey, you can't really look at their 2012 roster as proof of anything because that was at the tail end after 15 years of competing ie mostly not picking high draft picks. Any team who's been competing for 15 years is going to have a crap roster at the end of it. To actually explore this, what I'd really want to do is see if the Devils were winning from 1995-2010 due to low GA / not allowing scoring opportunities, which would imply a team more focused on preventing goals rather than scoring them (ie being built from the net out). I'm pretty sure this is what we'd find, but I haven't looked at the numbers.

2) Re: addressing the defense, he did not do shit while in Toronto, on that everyone agrees

3) Re: NYI, he arguably also did not do shit, but he basically inherited one of the league's best defensive defense (and a goaltender who would become elite), so he really didn't have to do anything. Put another way, who else is he supposed to acquire, he already has Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield, the other Sebastian Aho etc. I personally also believe something like "the defense-first way the Isles were built is probably a main reason the two sides decided to work together" but neither one of us will be able to prove that either way, it is pure speculation.

***

For me, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, so I think if given time in Toronto he would've addressed the D at some point, esp if Leafs couldn't win in the playoffs. This is a reasonable opinion.

It sounds like you are saying something like, "Lou didn't fix the D in Toronto and I don't really give him credit for anything he did in NYI because he inherited that team, 1 out of 3 (if it is even that) is not representative of anything. More importantly, he didn't do shit to fix Toronto's D in the 3 years he was there, why would he suddenly change his tune in years 4, 5, 6 etc." And that is a reasonable opinion too.

As an aside, there's also the question of how much say he actually had in Toronto (it was widely reported he didn't have final authority), that is a completely different discussion.

***

I'm good if you are. Both of us might be right, both of us might be wrong, most likely somewhere in the middle. No one will ever really know.

Either way appreciate the good faith / relatively detailed discussion. Even if it is taking place in a Matthews thread ha

I think it's safe to say your opinion on Lou holds no merit when you confidently stated Lou would never sign Tavares, even if ownership forced him.

Only to then realize not only did Lou try to sign Tavares, he actually offered more than the Leafs did.

Now, all of a sudden you're supposed to be the voice of authority on what Lou would do?

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Weird how Matthews changed his name to Lou.

 

[bert]

I wouldn't do that either if I was him

Your career is 20 years, milk it.

Play in your favourite city at the top price. You worked your entire life to be the top of your field, you've earned it.

These two decisions don't go with one another. If you really love the city/team/org you take a little less he's doing the opposite. Again I don't expect leaf fans to come to terms with this but the reality is if you really do love the city and you're gonna make 150+ million you'd be fine with take a little less. He quite clearly isn't.

 

[Divine]

These two decisions don't go with one another. If you really love the city/team/org you take a little less he's doing the opposite. Again I don't expect leaf fans to come to terms with this but the reality is if you really do love the city and you're gonna make 150+ million you'd be fine with take a little less. He quite clearly isn't.

Really? Darnell Nurse must hate Edmonton then, along with most of the team.

I thought it was guaranteed the rest of the team takes a discount if McDavid did? He would set the example right? If he takes one then everyone else is guaranteed to - that's the narrative we're following?

McDavid allegedly took a discount
Draisaitl didn't (was considered overpaid at the time, 8.5M for a player who was never PPG)
Nurse didn't
Campbell didn't
Puljujarvi didn't
Yamamoto didn't
Hyman didn't
Kane didn't (went to FA assuming he could get more, realized Edmonton was the highest bidder)
Ceci didn't
Kulak didn't
Skinner didn't

The idea of taking a 'discount' only seems to work in low tax states for some reason.

 

[DueDiligence]

Not every team goes over the cap, every team gives out max contracts though.

Only 1 team in the league has 3 contracts in the top 10 of the NHL. And that's almost 4 years after the Leafs handed the last one out.

 

[Divine]

Only 1 team in the league has 3 contracts in the top 10 of the NHL. And that's almost 4 years after the Leafs handed the last one out.

We were talking about the NBA. No one has a max contract in the NHL.