Rumor: Kyper: Dermott and Holl available for a trade

[Griffin76]

........ its kempe or nothing off that roster dumpster fire of a roster.

Everybody is entitled to an opinion. No matter how wrong it is.

 

[Stephen]

Dude don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining. We lost a guy who has 3g/4A in 8 games for a guy who is -7 over the same time. We traded Hallander /7th for McCann, we lost McCann as a price to keep a guy who has been in the press box for the last 5 games. It was one more example, in a LONG LONG LONG line of examples, of the Shannyplan theme song that has been playing for the last 5 years, poor asset management. It wont be the core 4 or a OHL coach or a OHL GM, that is the reason why we wont win the cup, it's the horrid asset and cap management under the Shanny regime

I would have preferred to have kept McCann and lost Kerfoot as my ideal scenario. Keep Holl cause you don’t know what you have in Liljegren. Ok fine. I’m not a Dubas fan and I have plenty of criticism to float his way, but Hallander and a 7th at that time is less value going out the door than Justin Holl.

 

[TMLAM34]

I’d be all ears when it comes to Kempe. I think he would be a real nice complementary player on a line with Matthews and Nylander.

 

[sparxx87]

He earned that contract. He was fine last year, if not good for most of the year. Not sure what you expect to pay mid/bottom pairing defenseman that play high defensive minutes like Holl. I don't think anyone expected him to regress to this level of struggling.

I'm fine admitting I was wrong about Holl though. Opinions can change based on new information. In hindsight, should have probably let Seattle take him if they were interested in doing so.

Perspective is important. As a fan, I understand why you're rooting for Justin Holl. He's one of those fun stories in sport of the guy who took the long road and persevered, and now plays for your favorite team. There's a certain affinity towards Holl that just means you're a human... but if we really want to effectively play armchair GM, those emotions can't be present. If they are, you might find yourself on the top of a agent poll as the GM agents most want to deal with to get their client paid. (unironically, this poll was taken within a few months of the Holl extension if memory serves)

As an organization, you don't care about any of this, and you aren't interested in evaluating this players stats. A general rule of thumb is 200-300 games to effectively evaluate an NHL defenseman. I'm not sure if Dubas genuinely didn't know this (with his lack of experience in every relevant capacity, its entirely possible) OR he just thought he could outsmart the system with his numbers? Either way, this was always a poor business and hockey decision. Business - you have a guy with less than half a season collectively at 27 years old who was just happy to be playing like that. With such a small sample, he'd be taking a huge risk to go to market and hope his 1 or 2 year deal wouldn't be his last if he doesn't get in the right situation. You table 2x800k or 3x950k both 1 way, offering him more security and guaranteed money than hes ever had, you make him less desirable as a waiver pickup with guaranteed NHL salary, and most importantly, keep the player hungry to improve some of the holes in his game that were always present for anyone attentively watching. (A few have mentioned he looks a little out of shape which is speculation but fair. He looks pretty pale, and not nearly as handsome as he was. This could be a result of more chillin' than working but its hard to know for sure. Certainly wouldn't be the first guy to get complacent after receiving more guaranteed money than he's ever had in his life) Hockey - I'm not sure what measure you're using to say he was good, but if it's anything rooted in any sort of shot metric I'll say this is another example of why these stats are so limited. I've written several times about some of the details that appear to be almost a lack of focus at times, and just low level of awareness anticipating the next play. Sometimes are worse than others but it's also important to consider something else we learned last year in that not only is Holl good 1v1 but struggles with details in coverage, but also that Jake Muzzin is nearly the opposite. He's very good defending the net and slot using strength, leverage and body positioning, but he doesn't necessarily excel when he has to manage a gap with the attacking puck carrier. It appears that teams have recognized that although Holl is the weaker link, the smarter attack is take it to Muzzin's side when possible and force Holl into net coverage while trying to exploit Muzzin's below average mobility drawing him away from the net where he's most effective and will struggle to recover to.

I understand the numbers may indicate he was a top 4 defenseman, but putting those numbers aside, it's important to consider the specific nuance with this specific player that was the likely reason he spent so much time in the minor leagues, and was dismissed by what I would assume is several different coaches by now. Failure to approach from this perspective could see you signing a flawed but serviceable 5-6 d for twice what hes worth.

If he decided to play it out and test UFA, thats a risk the player takes. Similar bottom pairing defenders offering the same intrinsic values available every year for a million or less. The problem isn't with Justin Holl, ideally they hold on to him for depth (you love him as your 7D)... The problem is that he makes double what they should be paying him because Dubas broke a fundamental rule, and now they can't afford to put $2M in the pressbox.

 

[hockeynorth]

Perspective is important. As a fan, I understand why you're rooting for Justin Holl. He's one of those fun stories in sport of the guy who took the long road and persevered, and now plays for your favorite team. There's a certain affinity towards Holl that just means you're a human... but if we really want to effectively play armchair GM, those emotions can't be present. If they are, you might find yourself on the top of a agent poll as the GM agents most want to deal with to get their client paid. (unironically, this poll was taken within a few months of the Holl extension if memory serves)

As an organization, you don't care about any of this, and you aren't interested in evaluating this players stats. A general rule of thumb is 200-300 games to effectively evaluate an NHL defenseman. I'm not sure if Dubas genuinely didn't know this (with his lack of experience in every relevant capacity, its entirely possible) OR he just thought he could outsmart the system with his numbers? Either way, this was always a poor business and hockey decision. Business - you have a guy with less than half a season collectively at 27 years old who was just happy to be playing like that. With such a small sample, he'd be taking a huge risk to go to market and hope his 1 or 2 year deal wouldn't be his last if he doesn't get in the right situation. You table 2x800k or 3x950k both 1 way, offering him more security and guaranteed money than hes ever had, you make him less desirable as a waiver pickup with guaranteed NHL salary, and most importantly, keep the player hungry to improve some of the holes in his game that were always present for anyone attentively watching. (A few have mentioned he looks a little out of shape which is speculation but fair. He looks pretty pale, and not nearly as handsome as he was. This could be a result of more chillin' than working but its hard to know for sure. Certainly wouldn't be the first guy to get complacent after receiving more guaranteed money than he's ever had in his life) Hockey - I'm not sure what measure you're using to say he was good, but if it's anything rooted in any sort of shot metric I'll say this is another example of why these stats are so limited. I've written several times about some of the details that appear to be almost a lack of focus at times, and just low level of awareness anticipating the next play. Sometimes are worse than others but it's also important to consider something else we learned last year in that not only is Holl good 1v1 but struggles with details in coverage, but also that Jake Muzzin is nearly the opposite. He's very good defending the net and slot using strength, leverage and body positioning, but he doesn't necessarily excel when he has to manage a gap with the attacking puck carrier. It appears that teams have recognized that although Holl is the weaker link, the smarter attack is take it to Muzzin's side when possible and force Holl into net coverage while trying to exploit Muzzin's below average mobility drawing him away from the net where he's most effective and will struggle to recover to.

I understand the numbers may indicate he was a top 4 defenseman, but putting those numbers aside, it's important to consider the specific nuance with this specific player that was the likely reason he spent so much time in the minor leagues, and was dismissed by what I would assume is several different coaches by now. Failure to approach from this perspective could see you signing a flawed but serviceable 5-6 d for twice what hes worth.

If he decided to play it out and test UFA, thats a risk the player takes. Similar bottom pairing defenders offering the same intrinsic values available every year for a million or less. The problem isn't with Justin Holl, ideally they hold on to him for depth (you love him as your 7D)... The problem is that he makes double what they should be paying him because Dubas broke a fundamental rule, and now they can't afford to put $2M in the pressbox.

Holl is paid extremely fairly for a #5, which is what he is

 

[Mess]

Holl is paid extremely fairly for a #5, which is what he is

Aren't #4/5 Dmen supposed to at least dress for games and not sit in the pressbox as healthy #7 scratches?

Leafs protected 4 Dmen in the expansion draft which meant Leafs viewed Holl as a #4 dman because they exposed #5 Dman Dermott in the expansion draft.

When a team is tight against the cap and can carry only 21 of 23 players, then having a $2 mil Dmen sitting in the pressbox as a healthy scratch is not good cap management.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Holl's contract isn't bad at all when he's playing. If you criticize his contract and ignore what some of the other crappy D signed for this past offseason, you clearly hate the player and likely the GM.

The problem is he isn't playing. That is the issue.

Also as an aside, I get that after the core 4 signed, every contract signed is like some sort of PTSD for this fanbase. But like it's gotten to the point where if the player isn't signed for the minimum, this board is outraged and nitpicky. "How dare this player make $200k more than I wanted to project him at!" And I get that there is a "Well the core 4 signed for so much, everyone else essentially needs to be signed for the minimum" mentality. But like chill. Any contract under approx $2.5M can be easily disposed of anyway.

The second Holl gets traded and then one of our dmen get hurt, you guys would complain anyway that he's gone and that Dubas was stupid for trading him. Because our fanbase seems to go through the phases of "the grass is always greener, we need that guy on that other team", to "the player stinks while he's here, get rid of him", but once he's gone it's "you don't know what you got til it's gone and now I miss him". It's pretty comical overall.

 

[sparxx87]

Aren't #4/5 Dmen supposed to at least dress for games and not sit in the pressbox as healthy #7 scratches?

Leafs protected 4 Dmen in the expansion draft which meant Leafs viewed Holl as a #4 dman because they exposed #5 Dman Dermott in the expansion draft.

When a team is tight against the cap and can carry only 21 of 23 players, then having a $2 mil Dmen sitting in the pressbox as a healthy scratch is not good cap management.

On a more positive note, that man Travis Dermott who was apparently viewed as the 5, had one of his best performances of the year against the Bruins in what was, IMO, the most impressive win of the season.

Sandin still leaving much to be desired but Liljegren had another strong performance as well!

 

[hockeynorth]

Aren't #4/5 Dmen supposed to at least dress for games and not sit in the pressbox as healthy #7 scratches?

Leafs protected 4 Dmen in the expansion draft which meant Leafs viewed Holl as a #4 dman because they exposed #5 Dman Dermott in the expansion draft.

When a team is tight against the cap and can carry only 21 of 23 players, then having a $2 mil Dmen sitting in the pressbox as a healthy scratch is not good cap management.

We have a 1D 2D 3D and 4 #5s, someone has to sit

contract /=/ playing status because we have DEPTH

 

[The Podium]

What if Dubas has a tentative deal done with Demers to be that #7 guy and is just capitalizing on Holl and Dermott's value?

 

[zeke]

Aren't #4/5 Dmen supposed to at least dress for games and not sit in the pressbox as healthy #7 scratches?

Yes, unless they play for a team with 7 dmen that are at least #4/5 caliber dmen, like the leafs.

 

[IPS]

Yes, unless they play for a team with 7 dmen that are at least #4/5 caliber dmen, like the leafs.

I think we're all seeing that Justin Holl wasn't nearly as good as you were trying to make him out to be.

The problem is he isn't playing. That is the issue.

Yes, because he played himself out of the lineup.

 

[zeke]

I think we're all seeing that Justin Holl wasn't nearly as good as you were trying to make him out to be.


.

What we're obviously seeing is what some of us pointed all along while others cried about losing Bogosian - the Leafs have a ton of very talented dmen.

But yes, even good dmen can struggle - which is dangerous when you have so much competition for your spot.

 

[IPS]

What we're obviously seeing is what some of us pointed all along while others cried about losing Bogosian - the Leafs have a ton of very talented dmen.

But yes, even good dmen can struggle - which is dangerous when you have so much competition for your spot.

I'm talking about Holl. No idea why you're bringing up Bogosian.

I believe your favorite comparison for Holl was Cernak. Are there any points in Cernak's career where he's been healthy scratched 5 games in a row?

You have your opinion and I have mine.

 

[zeke]

I'm talking about Holl. No idea why you're bringing up Bogosian.

I believe your favorite comparison for Holl was Cernak. Are there any points in Cernak's career where he's been healthy scratched 5 games in a row?

You have your opinion and I have mine.

Not sure why you're bringing up a team ranked 24th in goals against to compare to our top-10 defensive team tbh.

 

[13pacheco31]

Not sure why you're bringing up a team ranked 24th in goals against to compare to our top-10 defensive team tbh.

Out defense isn't bad but it's not elite by any means, it's middle of the pack, maybe slight above.

 

[sparxx87]

Holl's contract isn't bad at all when he's playing. If you criticize his contract and ignore what some of the other crappy D signed for this past offseason, you clearly hate the player and likely the GM.

The problem is he isn't playing. That is the issue.

Also as an aside, I get that after the core 4 signed, every contract signed is like some sort of PTSD for this fanbase. But like it's gotten to the point where if the player isn't signed for the minimum, this board is outraged and nitpicky. "How dare this player make $200k more than I wanted to project him at!" And I get that there is a "Well the core 4 signed for so much, everyone else essentially needs to be signed for the minimum" mentality. But like chill. Any contract under approx $2.5M can be easily disposed of anyway.

The second Holl gets traded and then one of our dmen get hurt, you guys would complain anyway that he's gone and that Dubas was stupid for trading him. Because our fanbase seems to go through the phases of "the grass is always greener, we need that guy on that other team", to "the player stinks while he's here, get rid of him", but once he's gone it's "you don't know what you got til it's gone and now I miss him". It's pretty comical overall.

Clearly you missed the very simple point of using leverage in negotiations to create advantages for your organization.

1. Why are you following teams signing poor value contracts? That seems like a poor strategy.

2. You’ve missed the point entirely with the last paragraph. Several people have mentioned that they’d ideally keep Justin Holl as quality depth and insurance… The issue is the poorly negotiated contract now being double what they should realistically be paying, and can’t afford that poor value in their press box.

It’s pretty simple if you honestly look at it.

 

[sparxx87]

Holl is paid extremely fairly for a #5, which is what he is

Perspective is important. Are you a fan or maybe agent on behalf of Justin Holl, or are you trying to make the best decision for the Toronto Maple Leafs?

This is very important. Understand why you’re on that side, but it’s concerning to see Dubas there as well. Voted GM agents most want to negotiate with to get their client paid.

Consider that for a minute.

 

[bossram]

You dont gamble on a prospect who hasnt been able to cut it in the NHL.

Its great that Lilly forced a good problem, but the Holl decision is an easy one to make only in hindsight.

It's not hindsight. The signs of Holl's weaknesses were already there. And once they acquired McCann, it should've been an incredibly easy decision because McCann is a superior player.

 

[hockeynorth]

Perspective is important. Are you a fan or maybe agent on behalf of Justin Holl, or are you trying to make the best decision for the Toronto Maple Leafs?

This is very important. Understand why you’re on that side, but it’s concerning to see Dubas there as well. Voted GM agents most want to negotiate with to get their client paid.

Consider that for a minute.

I agree with that it's concerning, I dont think it's because of Holl

 

[Kiwi]

........ its kempe or nothing off that roster dumpster fire of a roster.

Get a pick if you have to

Unfortunately Holl is sitting on the bench which can't be helping his trade value so maximize his value before it starts dropping off

 

[The Podium]

It's not hindsight. The signs of Holl's weaknesses were already there. And once they acquired McCann, it should've been an incredibly easy decision because McCann is a superior player.

And if Lilly couldn’t handle playing NHL minutes?

 

[13pacheco31]

And if Lilly couldn’t handle playing NHL minutes?

Resigning Holl wasn't a bad move. Giving him 2m for the next couple seasons was. I wouldn't have given him a penny more than the engval contract

 

[bossram]

And if Lilly couldn’t handle playing NHL minutes?

You have Dermott who can move up (as they've already done this season).

And if Liljergren was incapable of handling bottom-pair minutes (which, again, based on his AHL performance he should be able to handle), then they had acquired other depth options like Menell, Biega, and Rubins (who it seems they think can play NHL minutes).

 

[The Podium]

Resigning Holl wasn't a bad move. Giving him 2m for the next couple seasons was. I wouldn't have given him a penny more than the engval contract

2m contracts is peanuts for RHD in this league, even as a #5 or 6 guy.

You have Dermott who can move up (as they've already done this season).

And if Liljergren was incapable of handling bottom-pair minutes (which, again, based on his AHL performance he should be able to handle), then they had acquired other depth options like Menell, Biega, and Rubins (who it seems they think can play NHL minutes).

You wouldve been comfortable gambling on changing half our D core after they had a very successful season?