Confirmed with Link: Kyle Dubas Not Returning

[Mess]

We spent more than most contenders on our bottom-6 most years though, the money is clearly available.

Now do Norris winning and Conn Smythe Dman Victor Hedman, and Vezina and Conn Smythe wining Andrei Vasilevskiy TB positional cap investment vs Leafs Core 4 forwards using 1/2 a Salary Cap.

"Good teams are built from the goalie out, thorough strong defense and strength down the middle"

#1G Vasilevskiy ----> #1D Hedman ----> #1C's Point & Stamkos = 2 Stanley Cups and & SCF over 3 years while the Leafs failed to win a single playoff round,

"We spending more than most contenders on our bottom 6 forwards" has about as much relevance to building a consistent Stanley Cup contender then shuffling around deck chairs on the Titanic would've achieved.

Hopefully our new GM recognizes the "too much cap investment in too few players" all at foward Iceberg landmine set by the previous naive GM, and can find a way to reallocate cap resourses to more higher priority & key to winning positions like goaltending and defense core.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Now do Norris winning and Conn Smythe Dman Victor Hedman, and Vezina and Conn Smythe wining Andrei Vasilevskiy TB positional cap investment vs Leafs Core 4 forwards using 1/2 a Salary Cap.

"Good teams are built from the goalie out, thorough strong defense and strength down the middle"

#1G Vasilevskiy ----> #1D Hedman ----> #1C's Point & Stamkos = 2 Stanley Cups and & SCF over 3 years while the Leafs failed to win a single playoff round,

"We spending more than most contenders on our bottom 6 forwards" has about as much relevance to building a consistent Stanley Cup contender then shuffling around deck chairs on the Titanic would've achieved.

Hopefully our new GM recognizes the "too much cap investment in too few players" Iceberg landmine set by the previous naive GM, and can find a way to reallocate cap resourses to more higher priority & key to winning positions like goaltending and defense core.

Does not signing Tavares somehow give us 2nd overall and a time machine to draft Hedman with? Bob is the only goalie of that tier to hit UFA and Pietro was the only D. Pietro was affordable if he wanted to come here.

We have the money, we don’t have the right players to spend it on.

 

[Trapper]

What if the guys have NMC and refuse to waive?

Wouldn’t they have new contracts by then? Did you give them full NMC again? If they did, it’s their own fault.

 

[andora]

Many posters are now so caught up in agendas and hindsight bias that they are forgetting the fundamentals of team building that justified the Tavares signing in the first place.

A 1B centre was willing to sign with this team and the cost was only cap space instead of gutting futures to trade for one. The problem always was and always will be re-signing Marner to the richest contract ever handed to an RFA winger (13.3% of the cap on only a 6 year deal for an RFA winger to this day still has no close comparables), and the mind-boggling 8 year extension for Rielly that will age like milk.

Almost all teams that consistently contend for the cup have elite pieces at the top that play key positions (Multiple 1Cs, a minute munching all-situational 1D, a steady 1G that fits the coach's system, etc). Elite wingers are the least important position to be spending large chunks of cap space on, and Rielly is one-dimensional and not an all-situational minute-muncher.

Marner should have been gone in the 2019 offseason by allowing him to take the massive 12x7 offer sheet that came from Columbus and moving on with the four 1st round picks in offer sheet compensation. Rielly should have been gone either at the 2020 draft before the M-NTC kicked in on his previous deal with 2 seasons remaining (Rielly at 5x2 could have netted an insane trade return with no NTC on his contract), or during the 2021 offseason with 1 year remaining after all signing bonuses were paid on his previous deal. Instead Dubas re-signed Rielly before the 2021-22 season started.

Matthews (1A centre), Tavares (1B centre) and Nylander (talented offensive winger who outperformed his cap hit) are never pieces that serious contending teams would pass up on or move off of. The Marner and Rielly contracts however are essentially burned cap space that could have been spent more effectively and efficiently elsewhere.

I also want to mention some other non-core pieces that qualify as cap space that Dubas burned:
-Not trading Freddy Andersen after Babcock was fired. Freddy fit Babcock's system, but was not a fit for Keefe's system and it became very clear early on after Keefe was promoted. Dubas' loyalty to Freddy because he was a popular teammate was a mistake and 5Mx2 burned.
-The Mrazek (3.8x3 for a 1B) and Murray (4.6x2 glass 1B) additions. In the absence of a truly elite 1G I had wanted the Leafs to go cheap in net for a while so they could spend more cap elsewhere since non-elite goalies mostly succeed based on system fit. Instead Dubas takes on 1Bs with significant cap hit and term in back to back offseasons, just praying they fit Keefe's system.
-The Nick Ritchie (2.5x2) signing. Players like him only succeed in the slow-skating Pacific division and Dubas should have done his homework on this one.
-Being too loyal to Kerfoot just because he was a key part of the bad Kadri trade. Also being too loyal to Holl in general. The combined 5.5M in cap between those 2 definitely could have been spent better elsewhere.
-Paying a 1st to move off of Marleau's 6.25M cap hit in order to re-sign Johnsson and Kapanen to a combined 6.6M, when Johnsson and Kapanen never should have been re-signed to those deals in the first place. Their RFA rights should have both been moved at the 2019 draft and Dubas should have just eaten the last year of Marleau's deal. There's a reason why Tulsky jumped at the opportunity to eat the last year of the Marleau deal even though Carolina is a playoff team. 1st round picks should not be given up that easily.

Very well said

 

[Trapper]

Not giving Nylander a cent over 8.8m. I bet he is the sacrificial lamb because they won't move Marner. Based on this season, Matthews does not deserve more than Pasta let alone $14-$15m. But given he was already overpaid by the last GM they will have to overpay once again but I am not going over $13.34.

Marner will be up in 2 years. Again, does not deserve more than Pasta, Ranta or Tkachuk but given what the last GM gave him, we'll have to overpay to keep him.

So in two years, Matty 13.34, Mitch 11.893, Willie 8.8, and JT 4.91. 38.943. Wishful thinking ??

The way things have been going lately, concerning trading a core piece, running it back, new GM, smart GM, puppet GM, NMC, UFA, hard to say what is wishful or not.
This whole thing has as much of a chance of exploding as getting back on track.

 

[Stephen]

Many posters are now so caught up in agendas and hindsight bias that they are forgetting the fundamentals of team building that justified the Tavares signing in the first place.

A 1B centre was willing to sign with this team and the cost was only cap space instead of gutting futures to trade for one. The problem always was and always will be re-signing Marner to the richest contract ever handed to an RFA winger (13.3% of the cap on only a 6 year deal for an RFA winger to this day still has no close comparables), and the mind-boggling 8 year extension for Rielly that will age like milk.

Almost all teams that consistently contend for the cup have elite pieces at the top that play key positions (Multiple 1Cs, a minute munching all-situational 1D, a steady 1G that fits the coach's system, etc). Elite wingers are the least important position to be spending large chunks of cap space on, and Rielly is one-dimensional and not an all-situational minute-muncher.

Marner should have been gone in the 2019 offseason by allowing him to take the massive 12x7 offer sheet that came from Columbus and moving on with the four 1st round picks in offer sheet compensation. Rielly should have been gone either at the 2020 draft before the M-NTC kicked in on his previous deal with 2 seasons remaining (Rielly at 5x2 could have netted an insane trade return with no NTC on his contract), or during the 2021 offseason with 1 year remaining after all signing bonuses were paid on his previous deal. Instead Dubas re-signed Rielly before the 2021-22 season started.

Matthews (1A centre), Tavares (1B centre) and Nylander (talented offensive winger who outperformed his cap hit) are never pieces that serious contending teams would pass up on or move off of. The Marner and Rielly contracts however are essentially burned cap space that could have been spent more effectively and efficiently elsewhere.

I also want to mention some other non-core pieces that qualify as cap space that Dubas burned:
-Not trading Freddy Andersen after Babcock was fired. Freddy fit Babcock's system, but was not a fit for Keefe's system and it became very clear early on after Keefe was promoted. Dubas' loyalty to Freddy because he was a popular teammate was a mistake and 5Mx2 burned.
-The Mrazek (3.8x3 for a 1B) and Murray (4.6x2 glass 1B) additions. In the absence of a truly elite 1G I had wanted the Leafs to go cheap in net for a while so they could spend more cap elsewhere since non-elite goalies mostly succeed based on system fit. Instead Dubas takes on 1Bs with significant cap hit and term in back to back offseasons, just praying they fit Keefe's system.
-The Nick Ritchie (2.5x2) signing. Players like him only succeed in the slow-skating Pacific division and Dubas should have done his homework on this one.
-Being too loyal to Kerfoot just because he was a key part of the bad Kadri trade. Also being too loyal to Holl in general. The combined 5.5M in cap between those 2 definitely could have been spent better elsewhere.
-Paying a 1st to move off of Marleau's 6.25M cap hit in order to re-sign Johnsson and Kapanen to a combined 6.6M, when Johnsson and Kapanen never should have been re-signed to those deals in the first place. Their RFA rights should have both been moved at the 2019 draft and Dubas should have just eaten the last year of Marleau's deal. There's a reason why Tulsky jumped at the opportunity to eat the last year of the Marleau deal even though Carolina is a playoff team. 1st round picks should not be given up that easily.

Good summary. I will also add to the tally the Jake Muzzin injury case. He was so banged up that I believe he either skipped the first day of camp in September 2022 and lasted all but 4 games before suffering his career ending injury.

That situation required hard decisive action and that would have been LTIR, protecting the player from getting hurt and also protecting the organization's $5.6 million in cap space while there was still a market. That was a massive blow to the offseason effort.

 

[Apex Predator]

Wouldn’t they have new contracts by then? Did you give them full NMC again? If they did, it’s their own fault.

I didn’t give it to them but the new GM might

 

[hockeywiz542]

Even though everybody around here knows that Steve Simmons from the Toronto Sun is a complete hack, he wrote a really good article today explaining why in his opinion, the mourning over former Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas really needs to stop.

SIMMONS SAYS: Deifying of Kyle Dubas just can’t continue

You know who else was nice? Dave Nonis treated his staff well, as did Cliff Fletcher with the Leafs. Both got pushed out 'cause it was time.

torontosun.com

Former Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas. PHOTO BY JACK BOLAND /Toronto Sun

Kyle Dubas did not settle the healthcare crisis in Ontario, did not bring peace to the Middle East, and has as many Nobel Prizes as he has Jim Gregory Awards as general manager of the year in the National Hockey League.

In other words, none.

And yet, the over-the-top mourning for Dubas continues, as though he is irreplaceable and world-changing with the Maple Leafs, as if they won’t or can’t find anyone like him again. Because he treated people so well, the story goes. Because he was so loyal and so thoughtful.

Because the Leafs front office was all about ice cream and candy and almost everybody loves that.

But almost everybody didn’t love the past year in Leafland from the inside where there was more inner turmoil than there had been in Dubas’ previous four seasons as GM. He let pro scout and former director of hockey strategy Eric Joyce go midway through the season without explanation. That’s unusual. He oversaw the firing of the Marlies coaching staff at the end of the season. He took a well thought-of NHL executive and demoted him out of the front office and into the Marlies operation. His emotional outbursts in the box during games were unlike his actions in any other season.

That’s how nice he was in his final season in Toronto. You know who else was nice? Dave Nonis treated his staff wonderfully well, as did Cliff Fletcher with the Leafs. Both got pushed out because it was time to push them out. Not because they were nice people, which they still happen to be.

Big picture, Dubas took over a Leafs team five years ago that had Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri, Zach Hyman, Connor Brown and Freddie Andersen. Did that roster get better five years later?

Dubas got little for Kadri and Brown, and lost Hyman and Andersen to free agency. The big signing, John Tavares, then strangled the Leafs from a payroll perspective, not to mention the captain was slowing down in a league that is speeding up.

Dubas did some nice work bringing in Jake Muzzin, Luke Schenn and TJ Brodie, trading for Ryan O’Reilly, developing Timothy Liljegren and Michael Bunting, signing Mark Giordano on the cheap. But he also did some less-than-ordinary work, trading a first-round pick away for Nick Foligno.

This is what GMs do. The margin for error is thin. They have good and bad drafts. They make great and terrible trades. The nice guys do the job. And the not-so-nice guys do it as well.

This is not the end for the Leafs. This is another new beginning. The mourning over Dubas really needs to stop.

 

[Stephen]

Hopefully our new GM recognizes the "too much cap investment in too few players" Iceberg landmine set by the previous naive GM, and can find a way to reallocate cap resourses to more higher priority & key to winning positions like goaltending and defense core.

I think we're past the point of 4 forwards making $40 million doesn't work as a philosophy. It's Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander doesn't work as a real life team.

 

[andora]

I think we're past the point of 4 forwards making $40 million doesn't work as a philosophy. It's Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander doesn't work as a real life team.

Yeah i agree with this as the mix of players being the problem

 

[Martin Skoula]

I think we're past the point of 4 forwards making $40 million doesn't work as a philosophy. It's Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander doesn't work as a real life team.

I get the feeling that people would turn down a Drai-McDavid-Rantanen-Pastrnak core because it’s 40 mil for 4 forwards.

 

[IPS]

I get the feeling that people would turn down a Drai-McDavid-Rantanen-Pastrnak core because it’s 40 mil for 4 forwards.

You'd be a lunatic to turn that core down.

Our core-4 is nowhere near the same as that.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I get the feeling that people would turn down a Drai-McDavid-Rantanen-Pastrnak core because it’s 40 mil for 4 forwards.

Well, some of us are dealing in reality here....

 

[3blizzard4]

Kyle Dubas reportedly missed out on acquiring a ''big name, high-end defenseman'' due to Leafs' approval process

Dubas reportedly missed out on acquiring a star defenseman last season because of approval timelines within MLSE; find out more here

www.mapleleafsinsider.com

Judging by the ice time they gave Holl I would take lightly the term "high end defenceman" as used by the Leafs.

 

[Trapper]

I didn’t give it to them but the new GM might

I wouldn’t give NMC. Re-sign them now instead of losing them for nothing but with a 10 team NTC. That’s plenty.

 

[AvroArrow]

I think we're past the point of 4 forwards making $40 million doesn't work as a philosophy. It's Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander doesn't work as a real life team.

I'd narrow it down even further and say Marner/Matthews/Tavares simply aren't good enough in the playoffs and aren't willing to compete hard enough to win. They want to win, they don't want to put in the necessary effort and work to win though. You can't get out worked by the 8th seed team, just inexcusable. It's not the philosophy of the 4 guys making 40Mil, it's the 4 guys making 40M not competing hard enough.

If they played as hard as Tkachuk/Bennett/Montour, I think we sweep that series.

 

[Martin Skoula]

You'd be a lunatic to turn that core down.

Our core-4 is nowhere near the same as that.

Obviously they aren’t, but the 40 million for 4 forwards isn’t a barrier if they’re the right ones. We’d be better off doing 1 for 1 hockey trades for better fits at similar prices than we would turning 11 mil into 5 and 6.

 

[Mess]

I think we're past the point of 4 forwards making $40 million doesn't work as a philosophy. It's Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander doesn't work as a real life team.

You would think that was the case wouldn't you?

What more clear evidence would one need but 1 playoff series win in 5 years, and a near 2nd round series sweep with these actual goal totals to convince them?

Shockingly, you will still find many Leaf fans that want to run the core 4 back again, to the point that they're willing to believe Chris Johnston unverified reporting that Shanny told them all they're golden.

I'm in same boat as you that Insanity has its limitations, and you can only keep doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results for so long.

A new GM with a new start seems like a perfect opportunity to course correct on past mistakes. Why in the heck would you even change GMs of a proven faulty unsuccessful philosophy, and team player personnel build, only to run it back intact?

Now of course that is said knowingly with binding big money contracts in place, with pending tricky no trade clauses to maneuver around, which is easier said then done, despite the willingness to do so.

 

[rumman]

The way things have been going lately, concerning trading a core piece, running it back, new GM, smart GM, puppet GM, NMC, UFA, hard to say what is wishful or not.
This whole thing has as much of a chance of exploding as getting back on track.

It’s a mess, Leafs don’t need a new GM, they need Harvey Keitel from Pulp Fiction to clean up this mess……..

 

[Menzinger]

Well technically there is no such thing as any antiDubites (anti meaning opposed to; against), because there is no longer a Kyle Dubas employed by MLSE, that bitter battle has been fought and won and now ended when Shanahan walked into Dubas office and said your out. Once Dubas lands somewhere else he becomes that teams headache, no longer a Leaf Nation problem.

Now Leaf Nation only has pro-Maple-Leaf fans vs. pro-Dubas fans battles raging on.

Those fans being referred to as "Dubites" either must accept defeat once they're done mourning, and come back over to the Maple Leaf side in continued support of the team, or follow their fallen hero out the door and to where he eventually ends up. The true test for where your fan support and loyalty lies.

However I would expect the most loyal fans to Dubas himself, to now take a larger anti-New-Leafs-GM position stance much like we're see happening in the media of picking sides and reporting with a very slanted and bias approach to ongoing events.

So if/when Shanahan and his next GM opt to bring back the 40 million core 4, we can all get behind that decision as being on the Maple Leaf side?

 

[Antropovsky]

Rumors of Dubas wanting Sens job more than Pitts... Of course he does because that team has a strong young core in place. Similar situation to what he inherited in Toronto. The hard parts are done. Pittsburgh is a much more difficult situation.

 

[Apex Predator]

Rumors of Dubas wanting Sens job more than Pitts... Of course he does, because that team has a strong young core in place. Similar situation to what he inherited in Toronto. The hard parts done.

The core is locked up long term so he can’t screw that up.

 

[barilko05]

Can we stop this "4 forwards signed at half the cap screwed us" BS? When they signed, the expectation was the cap would rise and in 2 to 3 years those contracts would be standard rate for stars. Then this little thing called COVID... remember that..happened. NOBODY could have predicted something like that.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Can we stop this "4 forwards signed at half the cap screwed us" BS? When they signed, the expectation was the cap would rise and in 2 to 3 years those contracts would be standard rate for stars. Then this little thing called COVID... remember that..happened. NOBODY could have predicted something like that.

as Clint Eastwood would say, you adapt, you improvise, you over-come

Rumors of Dubas wanting Sens job more than Pitts... Of course he does, because that team has a strong young core in place. Similar situation to what he inherited in Toronto. The hard parts done.

I'm sure when he takes the time off he said he needed things will be much more clear

 

[ULF_55]

Can we stop this "4 forwards signed at half the cap screwed us" BS? When they signed, the expectation was the cap would rise and in 2 to 3 years those contracts would be standard rate for stars. Then this little thing called COVID... remember that..happened. NOBODY could have predicted something like that.

Really, there is a very reasonable contract in that group, a UFA contract, and 2 projection contracts.

You know I'd say they mostly earn it, until the post-season begins.

Certainly, is on the high side, but I don't think anyone expected they'd be so brutal in the post-season.

COVID and stage fright.