Kyle Dubas discussion

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

I can't complain that we haven't won multiple cups yet with this core but I think not even being able to win one round is pretty poor performance and definitely worthy of criticism. Outscored 14-6 in our last 4 game 7's (11-2 in the last 3) suggests that maybe something is rotten with core of this team, or maybe it's just the goaltending?


Those narratives are idiotic for sure. But if the reason we always lose in the playoffs is the goaltending, that's on him for sure. Bottom line is that it's him team now and he gets the credit when we win, but it's also fair to question his moves when we lose (as we always do in the playoffs for some reason).

100% and he will be questioned about goaltending if it fails.

but I think the problem is that if he did accomplish getting a goalie the people upset at him not getting one right now would just move the needle to "he didn't address the D". It's just a non win situation for him no matter what.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Depends on the trade. I've been more on board with trading either of Marner/Nylander at different times than most, but both have made me look like a donkey for it as well.

But giving up an elite player (and potential HoFer in Marner) before their 25th birthday is such a "Leafy" thing to do. I'm not going to blame him for giving them every chance to grow into themselves here rather than somewhere else.

I'll wait and see how it works out and if it doesn't work out well, he'll get the blame and he'll deserve it.

 

[ToneDog]

There's no doubt something needs to change if they lose again (personally, I'd think the team would need a culture shock), but if Dubas were to be fired I think teams would fall over themselves to get him. Losing Dubas would be downgrading the organization tremendously for -maybe- a short term gain in roster construction.

His resume will start with "4 first round exits in 4 years at the helm of the Toronto Maple Leafs". Teams may be interested, but falling over themselves to get him, I severely doubt it. Might be wise to stay away from Budget teams.

 

[ACC1224]

There's no doubt something needs to change if they lose again (personally, I'd think the team would need a culture shock), but if Dubas were to be fired I think teams would fall over themselves to get him. Losing Dubas would be downgrading the organization tremendously for -maybe- a short term gain in roster construction.

Should they lose again, the Coach will be the next change, IMO.

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

Sure, but most teams that have been doing that have seem some success, and make changes to get them through the next phase. We've been stalled.

How can you judge if we've stalled from this playoffs coming up?

We got either Tampa or Florida.

I personally find it very hard to judge if we stalled when we have those opponents. Anyone can lose to them, the past iterations of cup winners would possibly lose to them. I can't remember ever having a division this strong.

They're on pace to get the most points ever for a Maple Leaf team. You may be right they've stalled but how do you know?

They've somehow managed to be a top what? 7 or 8 team with league bottom goaltending. There is some indications that this team is incredibly strong, a top 5 PP and PK, top 3 offensive team - those are the simple stats. Advanced stats even tell you they are elite defensively but not getting stops.

I can't tell if they've stalled.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Should they lose again, the Coach will be the next change, IMO.

...Or one of the core players.

If someone wants to change the GM cool, but it better be a high level one like Stevie Y.

Don't come at me with the clowns we had before like JFJ Burke Nonis and Lou.

 

[Bloomberg]

I’d say it would be the same with any change in management, to take the team in a different direction.
Yes, Matthews may walk if Dubas leaves. He may also walk if the team continues to fail.
No one knows what Matthews thinks. IMO, decisions need to be made for the good of the team, not based on one player.

In Dubas’ defense, the flat cap was his undoing.

I'm not sure if the flat cap could be his defense... I mean he could've traded one of the big 4 to get cap relief. When he took over the team, he could've also traded Kapanen and Johnsson when their values were high instead of signing them to large contracts. He also traded away one of the best contracts in the league in Kadri, without getting nearly equal in return. I think Dubas' main mistakes were the contracts to the big 4 (not getting 8 years and the high cap hit), and failling to supplement the star players with the right mix of players. I think Matthews, Nylander, Tavares needs to play with players that crash the boards and create space for them, but Dubas decided to go small & skill.

 

[4thline]

I'll wait and see how it works out and if it doesn't work out well, he'll get the blame and he'll deserve it.

Re- this and your last reply

Nylander is going to be tricky. He's the only one of the group that's been underpaid and has every reason to push in negotiation. Matthews... 6/5 and pickem. If he wants every dollar it'll be tough.

I have to admit, a certain amount of almost nihilism as crept into my appreciation of sports. The younger piss and vinegar me would hate it, but realizing that being good enough to win / playing good enough to win / winning are three different things that aren't always a package deal has killed both my appreciation at winning and disappointment at losing. I just want a good team that I can enjoy watching and has a chance year after year. There's no guarantees (cough Sharks cough) but IMO it's our best bet for the cup, and i'll take that over an unceasing quest for immediate success that sees us turning over GM's every 3-5 years.

 

[Bloomberg]

Why not? Nylander's contract looks about right and Matthews is probably worth more than he got.

Dubas won't rock the boat with Matthews and they seem to have a good relationship and a level of trust there. Ofcourse I say that not knowing exactly how they feel about each other haha

I didn't like those contracts, both the cap hit and the term. I wanted 8 years instead of 6 and lower cap hit. Now that they are hitting UFA, they have way more leverage in negotiations. I think Nylander is leaving cause he wants to play center. If wouldn't be surprised if Matthews leaves for Arizona or California. I think it would take overpays for them to stay.

I mean if I were Matthews, I'd like Dubas too. Gets paid a lot and hit UFA sooner, and gets to play with Marner.

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

I'm not sure if the flat cap could be his defense... I mean he could've traded one of the big 4 to get cap relief. When he took over the team, he could've also traded Kapanen and Johnsson when their values were high instead of signing them to large contracts. He also traded away one of the best contracts in the league in Kadri, without getting nearly equal in return. I think Dubas' main mistakes were the contracts to the big 4 (not getting 8 years and the high cap hit), and failling to supplement the star players with the right mix of players. I think Matthews, Nylander, Tavares needs to play with players that crash the boards and create space for them, but Dubas decided to go small & skill.

I feel like you just summed up Bunting. I think that was his strategy in Foligno as well. They've had Hyman, who might just be the best forechecker in the entire league and yet here we are. Simmonds was to hopefully acquire that for the lower lines. I know that's an easy narrative but I don't think Dubas sits there and thinks "I only want small and skilled". It's been hard to get those kind of players and I'm sure that going into this summer he will once again want to acquire that. Knies on his way the next couple years, I'm willing to bet if they fail this summer Dubas will look at diversifying using Nylander.

 

[nuck]

100% and he will be questioned about goaltending if it fails.

but I think the problem is that if he did accomplish getting a goalie the people upset at him not getting one right now would just move the needle to "he didn't address the D". It's just a non win situation for him no matter what.

If the goaltending gets smoked it will be proven he made the wrong call. If Campbell comes back and plays great then he made the right call. Other hypotheticals don't really matter. Any no win situation is his creation right? The overall cap situation goes back to him, and this year its his coach, his goaltending solution, Simmonds, Ritchie, keeping Holl, are all things that led the club to where they are today. He didn't injure Muzz or make the 2nd line slump and all that might be okay be the time the playoffs start so his good moves aren't washed away but he still has to wear the choices that don't work.

I figure they must has at least a 50-50 chance that A game Campbell is back and that whoever backs him up can give one solid game in an emergency so I am going with that. It can't be the end of the world if they haven't lost a playoff game yet right?

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

I didn't like those contracts, both the cap hit and the term. I wanted 8 years instead of 6 and lower cap hit. Now that they are hitting UFA, they have way more leverage in negotiations. I think Nylander is leaving cause he wants to play center. If wouldn't be surprised if Matthews leaves for Arizona or California. I think it would take overpays for them to stay.

I mean if I were Matthews, I'd like Dubas too. Gets paid a lot and hit UFA sooner, and gets to play with Marner.

Were both just guessing. Maybe Matthews and Willie enjoy it here? Maybe Dubas moves Willie before he becomes a UFA? Maybe Matthews appreciates that Dubas doesn't stiff arm him and knows his worth?

 

[nuck]

I didn't like those contracts, both the cap hit and the term. I wanted 8 years instead of 6 and lower cap hit. Now that they are hitting UFA, they have way more leverage in negotiations. I think Nylander is leaving cause he wants to play center. If wouldn't be surprised if Matthews leaves for Arizona or California. I think it would take overpays for them to stay.

I mean if I were Matthews, I'd like Dubas too. Gets paid a lot and hit UFA sooner, and gets to play with Marner.

Those deals were the first ones he had made (JT doesn't really count). I have no expectation he will get walked by them twice, this isn't year 1 Dubs. My concern is that Matthews might leave and that is largely beyond his control and likely not money driven. I think Nylander is leaving because he will be dealt to relieve the capo pressure and because his next deal will break the bank if stacked on the other two guys.

 

[Bloomberg]

Were both just guessing. Maybe Matthews and Willie enjoy it here? Maybe Dubas moves Willie before he becomes a UFA? Maybe Matthews appreciates that Dubas doesn't stiff arm him and knows his worth?

Is that.. another way of saying overpaying? Lol. But yeah, we are all guessing. That's way management needs to decide if they trust Dubas will do the right thing going forward.

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

Is that.. another way of saying overpaying? Lol. But yeah, we are all guessing. That's way management needs to decide if they trust Dubas will do the right thing going forward.

I don't think so? Sometime tough negotiations can strain relationships, no? Especially when they're likely to end up in the same spot anyways.

100% it will be up to them to judge. I'm sure they'll be thorough and whatever they decide will create a further civil war with this fanbase haha

 

[Bloomberg]

I feel like you just summed up Bunting. I think that was his strategy in Foligno as well. They've had Hyman, who might just be the best forechecker in the entire league and yet here we are. Simmonds was to hopefully acquire that for the lower lines. I know that's an easy narrative but I don't think Dubas sits there and thinks "I only want small and skilled". It's been hard to get those kind of players and I'm sure that going into this summer he will once again want to acquire that. Knies on his way the next couple years, I'm willing to bet if they fail this summer Dubas will look at diversifying using Nylander.

I think he undervalues grit and physicality and the ability to crash the boards and create room and space. He's shown this in the drafts and in trade for Kerfoot, Barrie, and bunch of smaller players. I think he's starting to change his mentality on that now, with players like Lyub, finally draft someone over 6' in Knies. But this deadline, I thought we needed a forward with more of that physical element and we got Blackwell. Maybe he could be Bunting like?

 

[Sypher04]

If the goaltending gets smoked it will be proven he made the wrong call. If Campbell comes back and plays great then he made the right call. Other hypotheticals don't really matter. Any no win situation is his creation right? The overall cap situation goes back to him, and this year its his coach, his goaltending solution, Simmonds, Ritchie, keeping Holl, are all things that led the club to where they are today. He didn't injure Muzz or make the 2nd line slump and all that might be okay be the time the playoffs start so his good moves aren't washed away but he still has to wear the choices that don't work.

I figure they must has at least a 50-50 chance that A game Campbell is back and that whoever backs him up can give one solid game in an emergency so I am going with that. It can't be the end of the world if they haven't lost a playoff game yet right?

It also should be kept in mind Campbell has only played 4 games since we acquired Lyubushkin, Giordano hasn’t played at all yet, and Muzzin should be back before playoffs begin.

Those three players all inserted into our lineup will allow Campbell the best opportunity to re-find his game as they will dramatically improve our in zone play and physicality on the backend.

 

[Sypher04]

Say whatever you want I guess but there’s currently zero reason to think Matthews or any of the Leafs other stars will be looking to go anywhere else when their contracts are due.

Contrary to popular belief, the term on Matthews’ contract indicates nothing in this regard

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

I think he undervalues grit and physicality and the ability to crash the boards and create room and space. He's shown this in the drafts and in trade for Kerfoot, Barrie, and bunch of smaller players. I think he's starting to change his mentality on that now, with players like Lyub, finally draft someone over 6' in Knies. But this deadline, I thought we needed a forward with more of that physical element and we got Blackwell. Maybe he could be Bunting like?

I think you're 100% right and was always the risk hiring a rookie GM but I think he's learning. I'm sure if you asked him off the record with truth serum he'd tell you exactly how bad that Kadri trade ended up. I often wonder how if the trade of Kadri for Brodie went through, which is how we've ended up, would have changed people's opinion of Dubas. That doesn't excuse how bad that trade was. I definitely think there has been more value put on physicality and grit but it's really hard to acquire in the league.

I think that's exactly the hope in Blackwell. Bring energy but also have ability so plays don't end on his stick.

We all wanted a forward with a physical edge. I suppose it was Gio, a forward such as that, or a goalie.

 

[wingman75]

Interesting conversation on the 'worst case scenario' of a first round playoff loss.

I did think, after the playoff loss last season, that any type of first round loss this season would end with Shanahan, Dubas and Keefe and their merrymen all fired. As time passes, I am less certain of that; not that I necessairly believe it is the right decision...

First off, the East playoff first round is going to be deadly... 4 good teams are gonig to lose. That is not always the case... sometimes there are 3-4 bad teams that get in... not true this season. Maybe that has an impact on post-season management decisions.

Second, the one thing Kyle has not done is trade one of the core... I think that might be the biggest impact of his status. If he is willing to move one of the core-four-forwards, he will probably get another season. If he is not, I think he'll have to be removed because he has done everything else to enhance the roster (not all moves have worked out, but there has been a clear effort to make changes to the supporting case).

Finally, if we end up losing because of goaltending... is this management team given a chance to shore that piece of the roster up before walking the plank? Probably... again, best intentions there that are not working out as hoped...

Again, if we do lose in the first round, how we lose probably has a piece to play in the management impact. Get swept... not good lol. Lose in 7 to a team like Tampa...

I say the best way to solve all this is to at least win a couple rounds and build off that success (fingers crossed).

 

[The Podium]

No it isn’t, you don’t just get to ignore we’ve never won a round. I’d add, the constant chatter this year and last for that matter, it’s a failure if we don’t get out of the first round, again the Avs a different metric for success. I’ll guarantee you if both get bounced in the second round this year the respective teams won’t see it the same way and that’s why the analogy is awful.

The ultimate goal is to win the cup, not win a round. Whether the Leafs or Avs get bounced in round 1 or round 2 it’s a failure. Round 3 is where both teams can hang their hat on a well fought playoff run.

But, IMO, even a round one loss doesn’t mean Dubas should be fired.

 

[67leafs]

Sooner or later nylander has to go for a top tier goaltender IMO

 

[Zybalto]

LOL.

Laugh all you want but it's the truth.

Got out of Ritichies contract and actually got a valuable physical RHD at a much lower cap hit was a massive win. (Not saying Dubas didnt create that problem himself but still a great trade)

I thought the Giroux + Gio deals were the best of the whole deadline, mainly because of the leverage the players were putting on management.

 

[nuck]

I think you're 100% right and was always the risk hiring a rookie GM but I think he's learning. I'm sure if you asked him off the record with truth serum he'd tell you exactly how bad that Kadri trade ended up. I often wonder how if the trade of Kadri for Brodie went through, which is how we've ended up, would have changed people's opinion of Dubas. That doesn't excuse how bad that trade was. I definitely think there has been more value put on physicality and grit but it's really hard to acquire in the league.

I think that's exactly the hope in Blackwell. Bring energy but also have ability so plays don't end on his stick.

We all wanted a forward with a physical edge. I suppose it was Gio, a forward such as that, or a goalie.

I think with strong goaltending the Leafs have a shot at taking out the Lightning in a skill game just as they do with any other club when the offense is rolling. My worry is that TB with Paul, Perry and Maroon can change their game style to one the Leafs have no answer for if the refs put away the whistles again. Thats not something one deadline deal would have cured and it still has to happen though but a As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, that might affect the future lineup construction.

Re: the Kadri trade, the other player attached to a Calgary deal was Jankowski who's game was disintegrating at the time but Brodie is more valuable than Kerf and one year of Barrie for sure. The other thing is KD could have dealt Barrie once he saw he wasn't working out as hoped instead of doubling down and running him through the playoffs. Its all 20-20 to point things out once the year is over.

 

[fahad203]

Say whatever you want I guess but there’s currently zero reason to think Matthews or any of the Leafs other stars will be looking to go anywhere else when their contracts are due.

Contrary to popular belief, the term on Matthews’ contract indicates nothing in this regard

Why not exactly?

There are plenty of reasons why players wouldn't want to be here.

Auston loves the Coyotes as any Torontonians love the Leafs. There are other cities players would love to play

If he goes to the Rangers, he'll be treated like god in NY and the lifestyle in NY is just something else
He can easily go to California, I mean that's where he's orginally from

He can go to Tampa, players rave about living in Tampa and MIami

There are a lot Canadians' love living in the states and playing for American teams. Rick Nash never wanted to move to Canada, Brent Burns has a nice barn he lives off in Texas