Beating Tampa Bay before losing to Boston is the odds-on scenario. That result would, at the very least, give management proof of progress beyond the process.
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The Lightning are the three-time defending champions in the Eastern Conference, it’s true. But they’re also a team that’s staggering through the undeniable hangover of three straight trips to the Cup final, from which they’ve procured two championship rings. They’re a team, too, that’s seen the reality of the NHL’s unrelenting salary cap strip them of the depth that made them particularly formidable.
So, while it’s true that you never underestimate the heart of a champion, you also never overlook the heft of a franchise’s mileage. Given they’ve spent the previous three seasons playing 71 playoff games — to Toronto’s 19 — there’s simply no rolling back the Lightning’s odometer. While Tampa Bay has never been shorter of manpower, Toronto has never been deeper, all in all.
So, victory ought to be at hand, and for Shanahan and Dubas it couldn’t come at a better time.
Dubas’s lame-duck status — his contract expires at the end of June — was a clear signal from ownership that this is a wait-and-see situation. If you’re reading the tea leaves, that means a first-round ouster will come with a non-negotiable call for change — a point of no return from which even the trusted Shanahan, who’s in the ninth year of a remarkable 11-year guarantee, might need to grovel to save himself.
But if the Leafs win so much as a single playoff round … well, on one hand they’ll be a grim one for seven in opening-round series going back to 2017. And even if batting average isn’t everything, batting .143 isn’t great. On the other hand, in our society of short memories, they’ll be one for their most recent one. They’ll have slayed a considerable dragon, ended a historic and embarrassing playoff drought, set horns honking from the foot of Bay Street to Woodbridge.
Then it’ll be on to their presumptive second-round opponent, the Boston Bruins. As much as the Leafs bemoan the playoff format that sees them meet their Atlantic Division brethren so early in the post-season, that matchup might be another justification for dusting off management’s trusty silver linings playbook. Never mind that the Bruins, as holders of the Presidents’ Trophy, have essentially marked themselves for an early playoff exit; that it’s been a decade since the team with the league’s best record actually won the Cup, and that eight of the past nine winners have failed to advance past the second round.
For a franchise that last won a playoff series in 2004, the bar is low. In other words, the Leafs undoubtedly have to beat the Lightning to avoid a major front-office shakeup. But if you’ve observed the lack of urgency with which MLSE’s board of directors operates in the post-Tim Leiweke era, it’s more than fathomable that the Leafs could lose in the second round — lose to the Bruins, so long as it’s respectable — and keep the Shanaplan intact, if Shanahan so chooses.
It’s not exactly a vision of the “winning is everything” ethos that got the Clark-era Leafs within a blink of a Cup final. And the beauty of sports means Leafs fans can hope that this version of the club, buoyed by the late-season insertion of Cup pedigree and fortified by the scars of seasons past, suddenly displays the playoff-worthy resilience it’s heretofore lacked.
But if a second-round-and-out run were to play out — and right now, beating Tampa Bay and losing to Boston is the odds-on scenario for this spring — the result would, at the very least, allow Toronto management to finally speak of actual progress beyond the process. It would allow the kings of consolation to speak of a measurable step in the right direction. And it might just see the Shanaplan as we know it survive beyond this season.