Tribute Kyle Dubas discussion

[Racer88]

I can’t see Dubas leaving unless they decide not to give him a new contract.
No way he walks away from what I bet he feels is a job unfinished.
If the Leafs fail again this year and he decided to walk away he would be forever known as the GM that couldn’t get Matthews, Marner, Will and Tavares past the first round…….a major stain on his career

 

[Gabriel426]

Why does the narrative have to be if MLSE doesn’t want him? What if Kyle wants to leave because Kyle wants a new challenge? Or because he’s going to get promoted to a better position.

Maybe at the beginning of the year id agree with you. But now, if Kyle leaves it may not be because MLSE didn’t want him. It could just be Kyle is ready for a new chapter in his career. Which isn’t an absurd thought.

Honestly I think Kyle has more leverage than MLSE thinks and a lot of posters think. At the end of the day they may come to regret not just extending him.

If the three choices are Blues, Pens and Leafs for the GM job and Blues didnt get 1st overall pick. Leafs is the obvious choice. You can’t sit here and state Pens and Blues are better choice than the Leafs.
Now if the other two offer President of the Operations which is a promotion in itself, then that’s a completely different conversation.

 

[Rude Dog]

Who picks the players that're playing?

So you would have traded Mathews and Marner

Yup I was referring to the logic you replied to. Your logic is more in tune with the real world.

in my world I get paid to do what is right over the longer term. I believe that doing the right things over time will result in much better results than over reacting and having a tantrum every time we don’t get our own way. Of course results matter and Dubas may be gone soon enough. I happen to think he will succeed.

were you happy when AA got fired? I was pissed. I embrace a hard working and relentless GM. Last time I checked he got a ring. Jays. Not so much. Would they have been better keeping him even though he hadn’t won at the time? I say yes.

 

[notbias]

Time will tell. I hope you are right but until I actually see improvement I have very little faith in what Dubas has put together


Any team that trades for Murray is going to be near the top in man games lost

Funny enough, our goalies might have been healthier than Ottawa's... but regardless of Murray, we had a lot of injuries this year.

 

[ToneDog]

So you would have traded Mathews and Marner

in my world I get paid to do what is right over the longer term. I believe that doing the right things over time will result in much better results than over reacting and having a tantrum every time we don’t get our own way. Of course results matter and Dubas may be gone soon enough. I happen to think he will succeed.

were you happy when AA got fired? I was pissed. I embrace a hard working and relentless GM. Last time I checked he got a ring. Jays. Not so much. Would they have been better keeping him even though he hadn’t won at the time? I say yes.

Doubt AA would have won here. I was not sad to see him go. Was happy to see him win.

 

[JKG33]

So you would have traded Mathews and Marner

Yes. It was clear after the Columbus series they didn't have what it takes. The fact that this entire organization (The overpaid 3, Keefe, Dubas) have been given this much runway is ridiculous. Even if you want a super conservative approach, the Montreal series should've been the last straw.

At the very least I would've traded one of them as a wakeup call to the group, and brought in a coaching staff and leadership group that's actually won something before.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I don't want Lou either, but comparing the end result of both teams shows that Dubas has done nothing to improve the team.

Do they look better on paper? Maybe, but the cup isn't won with player ratings like in a video game.

As an organization they are significantly better. That period where they were leading in man games lost versus player impact? Yet it was next man up after next man up? We saw how that played out shortly after Kyle took over. The pipeline is significantly improved in all aspects. A next step needs to be taken but Kyle has done wonderfully at positioning the organization to be a threat for many years, which isn’t easy in a cap world.

 

[francis246]

If the three choices are Blues, Pens and Leafs for the GM job and Blues didnt get 1st overall pick. Leafs is the obvious choice. You can’t sit here and state Pens and Blues are better choice than the Leafs.
Now if the other two offer President of the Operations which is a promotion in itself, then that’s a completely different conversation.

It’s not about being a better choice, I don’t think that matters at all to Kyle. What makes the leafs a better choice? Last time I’ve checked this core hasn’t won shit all. While both the pens and blues cores have won cups and know how to win. And I also don’t think the Blues and Pens jobs will be the only jobs available. Ottawa could be up for grabs, same with Calgary. We could see quite a few vacancies in the next few months.

Having good players isn’t everything. Especially if they can’t win no matter who you put around them. That would be enough to drive any GM a way. If you listen to a lot of interviews with executives and even head coaches, after a while they want new challenges. Even if they have good teams. For an executive being able to build is what they live for, so it doesn’t matter if the team is shit. They are going to do their job and try and build a winner.

Lastly like I mentioned before, if the leafs lose in the first round again and MLSE offers an extension, if I’m Kyle I’m not signing that right away. I’m going to explore my options now and decide whether I really want my legacy as a GM to be attached to a core group who cannot win playoff rounds.

 

[francis246]

I can’t see Dubas leaving unless they decide not to give him a new contract.
No way he walks away from what I bet he feels is a job unfinished.
If the Leafs fail again this year and he decided to walk away he would be forever known as the GM that couldn’t get Matthews, Marner, Will and Tavares past the first round…….a major stain on his career

I disagree. I don’t think it would be a stain on Dubas at all. As a GM he hasnt missed the playoffs. He’s improved and tinkered the roster each year. He doesn’t play the game. The stain would be on the players and Keefe. That is why you’re hearing a lot of rumours of ownership groups preparing to make him an offer because everyone sees it. Kyle is a good GM but this core shits the bed in the playoffs. That’s on the players.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I disagree. I don’t think it would be a stain on Dubas at all. As a GM he hasnt missed the playoffs. He’s improved and tinkered the roster each year. He doesn’t play the game. The stain would be on the players and Keefe. That is why you’re hearing a lot of rumours of ownership groups preparing to make him an offer because everyone sees it. Kyle is a good GM but this core shits the bed in the playoffs. That’s on the players.

 

[RoadWarrior]

The job of the GM is to move out players who can’t perform in critical moments.

Maybe his hands were tied by ownership? Hard to say but it’s clear that Dubas decided a while ago that his core 5 players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly) would not be touched no matter how much they crapped the bed in the playoffs.

The leafs are a good team but they can‘t generate goals when they need them most. Too much perimeter play. Not enough jam.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

The job of the GM is to move out players who can’t perform in critical moments.

Maybe his hands were tied by ownership? Hard to say but it’s clear that Dubas decided a while ago that his core 5 players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly) would not be touched no matter how much they crapped the bed in the playoffs.

The leafs are a good team but they can‘t generate goals when they need them most. Too much perimeter play. Not enough jam.

It’s literally just last year / this year where those young stars are hitting that all important part in the curve where they become complete players.

 

[francis246]

The job of the GM is to move out players who can’t perform in critical moments.

Maybe his hands were tied by ownership? Hard to say but it’s clear that Dubas decided a while ago that his core 5 players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly) would not be touched no matter how much they crapped the bed in the playoffs.

The leafs are a good team but they can‘t generate goals when they need them most. Too much perimeter play. Not enough jam.

I think it’s fair to assume ownership probably was not ready to move on from them. I think if you caught Kyle in a candid moment after the Montreal series, he was probably ready to move someone from the core. But I think the value MLSE sees in those players is too great.

That being said I think this is our most optimal roster to get it done. Hopefully they do it and Kyle stays. That would be best case scenario, but I could also see a scenario where they win a round or two and he still leaves. The Pittsburgh job of presidency is offered may just be too inticing. But I’m hoping he stays.

 

[Racer88]

I disagree. I don’t think it would be a stain on Dubas at all. As a GM he hasnt missed the playoffs. He’s improved and tinkered the roster each year. He doesn’t play the game. The stain would be on the players and Keefe. That is why you’re hearing a lot of rumours of ownership groups preparing to make him an offer because everyone sees it. Kyle is a good GM but this core shits the bed in the playoffs. That’s on the players.

With the core he was gifted making the playoffs is a given. Has he really improved the roster every year when the result is the same? Yes he does not play the game but if the players he has cannot or will not play to a level to win in the playoff then it’s on him to make those changes, but he has not.
ultimately it is on him.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

With the core he was gifted making the playoffs is a given. Has he really improved the roster every year when the result is the same? Yes he does not play the game but if the players he has cannot or will not play to a level to win in the playoff then it’s on him to make those changes, but he has not.
ultimately it is on him.

The underlying data suggests it has shown continued improvement and if you look at the organization as a whole, it’s pretty undeniable they are in a much better place. Hopefully soon the playoff results.

 

[francis246]

With the core he was gifted making the playoffs is a given. Has he really improved the roster every year when the result is the same? Yes he does not play the game but if the players he has cannot or will not play to a level to win in the playoff then it’s on him to make those changes, but he has not.
ultimately it is on him.

3-2 up on Boston and they lose it.

Look at every series Kyle has GM’d, the leafs have been up and they pissed it away. 3-1 to MTL, how in the hell is that Kyle’s fault?

3-2 up on TB and the coach comes out and says, yeah we’re comfortable if we lose game 6. Wtf. I would have fired Keefe last year after all his comments.

Kyle year after year has given his coaches really good rosters and the coaches have made some terrible decisions that have cost them games and the players have made horrific turnovers to cost them games. That’s on the players. What more does he have to do?

 

[saltming]

3-2 up on Boston and they lose it.

Look at every series Kyle has GM’d, the leafs have been up and they pissed it away. 3-1 to MTL, how in the hell is that Kyle’s fault?

3-2 up on TB and the coach comes out and says, yeah we’re comfortable if we lose game 6. Wtf. I would have fired Keefe last year after all his comments.

Kyle year after year has given his coaches really good rosters and the coaches have made some terrible decisions that have cost them games and the players have made horrific turnovers to cost them games. That’s on the players. What more does he have to do?

In all those games you're talking about, Kyle was invisible on the ice! I can't recall a single play he made that was a difference maker
I don't think I need it but just in case hahahaha

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Dubas has done a pretty good job. He'll be back next year, if he wants to be here. End of story.

This seems like you're declaring your opinion as fact. Unless you own a crystal ball...

 

[ToneDog]

The underlying data suggests it has shown continued improvement and if you look at the organization as a whole, it’s pretty undeniable they are in a much better place. Hopefully soon the playoff results.

The standings say they had 4 fewer points than last year. Four fewer wins and 3 more loser points. Only 1 more win than Lou's last Leaf team.

Luckily Tampa is declining hard so we should beat them. Boston is the test.

 

[Puckstuff]

As of late he's been good, If we look at only the last 2 years.

Positive additions over the last 2 years: O'Reilly, McCabe, Bunting, Jarnkrok, Samsonov, Giordano and Schenn have all been good additions at their cap hit. Acciari has also been a decent bottom 6 add. Lafferty is pending... but the cost for him is so low.

Negative additions last 2 years: Only Mrazek and Murray have been bad signings. But they were both extremely bad. I'd also say not brining back Hyman over Kerfoot+Engvall was a massive mistake. But it looks like that money is going to go to O'Reilly and I'd probably take O'Reilly over Hyman for the playoffs because he's a C with insane defence, but it's close. Hyman wouldn't be an 80 point guy here. More like 60-70.

An A+ would look like

Hyman, O'Reilly, Bunting, McCabe, Bunting, Jarnkrok, Samsonov, Giordano and Schenn. So basically the Kerfoot+Murray cap going to Hyman.


But overall it's still very good and I'd give him a B+, it would would be A if not for Murray/Mrazek.

 

[notbias]

Yes. It was clear after the Columbus series they didn't have what it takes. The fact that this entire organization (The overpaid 3, Keefe, Dubas) have been given this much runway is ridiculous. Even if you want a super conservative approach, the Montreal series should've been the last straw.

At the very least I would've traded one of them as a wakeup call to the group, and brought in a coaching staff and leadership group that's actually won something before.

What GM/coaching staff? Trotz wants to be a GM it appears, so who?

What would a trade look like for an overpaid loser? How many 1sts are we giving up to get rid of one of them?

The standings say they had 4 fewer points than last year. Four fewer wins and 3 more loser points. Only 1 more win than Lou's last Leaf team.

Luckily Tampa is declining hard so we should beat them. Boston is the test.

View attachment 689272

Not that it matters...

 

[NHLInjuryViz]

Curious to see the difference in man games lost, it feels like there were A LOT more injuries this year.

21/22
MGL: 213
CHIP: $8.4m
AMIP: 50
LWAR+: 4.0

22/23
MGL: 380
CHIP: $13.9m
AMIP: 80
LWAR+: 4.7

CHIP = Cap Hit of Injured Players
i.e. CHIP = AAV x Games Missed / 82

AMIP = Average Minutes of Injured Players
i.e. AMIP = (TOI per game) x Games Missed / 82

LWAR+ = Lost positive WAR of Injured Players (based on weighted average WAR per 60 minutes since 2019/20 from evolving-hockey.com)
i.e. LWAR+ = (max(0, WAR) / 60) x (TOI per game) x Games Missed

Much greater volume of players out this season, much bigger concentration on defensemen, but still quite a lot of lower line-up filler making up the numbers. No lengthy absences to the core four in either season (though appreciate Matthews was reportedly playing hurt this year and his absence spanned the break, so he didn't miss as many games as he could've done).

 

[Ciao]

This seems like you're declaring your opinion as fact. Unless you own a crystal ball...

Yes, you're quite right.

No crystal ball, just a strongly held opinion, that's all.

I've been wrong before, and I'll be wrong again.

 

[andora]

What GM/coaching staff? Trotz wants to be a GM it appears, so who?

What would a trade look like for an overpaid loser? How many 1sts are we giving up to get rid of one of them?





Not that it matters...

I would love to see the formula for something like that

 

[saltming]

I would love to see the formula for something like that

Ask and ye shall recieve

21/22
MGL: 213
CHIP: $8.4m
AMIP: 50
LWAR+: 4.0

22/23
MGL: 380
CHIP: $13.9m
AMIP: 80
LWAR+: 4.7

CHIP = Cap Hit of Injured Players
i.e. CHIP = AAV x Games Missed / 82

AMIP = Average Minutes of Injured Players
i.e. AMIP = (TOI per game) x Games Missed / 82

LWAR+ = Lost positive WAR of Injured Players (based on weighted average WAR per 60 minutes since 2019/20 from evolving-hockey.com)
i.e. LWAR+ = (max(0, WAR) / 60) x (TOI per game) x Games Missed

Much greater volume of players out this season, much bigger concentration on defensemen, but still quite a lot of lower line-up filler making up the numbers. No lengthy absences to the core four in either season (though appreciate Matthews was reportedly playing hurt this year and his absence spanned the break, so he didn't miss as many games as he could've done).