Tribute Kyle Dubas discussion

[acrobaticgoalie]

Why does the narrative have to be if MLSE doesn’t want him? What if Kyle wants to leave because Kyle wants a new challenge? Or because he’s going to get promoted to a better position.

Maybe at the beginning of the year id agree with you. But now, if Kyle leaves it may not be because MLSE didn’t want him. It could just be Kyle is ready for a new chapter in his career. Which isn’t an absurd thought.

Honestly I think Kyle has more leverage than MLSE thinks and a lot of posters think. At the end of the day they may come to regret not just extending him.

I know if it were me and options were on the table to leave or stay, I would stay because of unfinished business and a positive future outlook. The team has been getting better, the cap is going up and we are starting to see another wave of young talent coming up to compliment the core, with the likes of Knies, Woll, Holmberg, Niemela, Hirvonen, Minten, Robertson, Kral etc.

After 4 yrs of drafting and developing, I would want to see what I've built come together.

 

[NHLInjuryViz]

Ask and ye shall recieve

To be clear, those are only explanations of the numbers in my post, not the other ones.

In principle, you can weight games missed to injury by a whole host of different measures of player "value", so understand Hockey Reference's point shares to the be the basis for those other figures, though I can't shed any more light on (nor replicate) them. Definitely should not not be interpreted as any team being 30+ points worse off than they would be without any injuries though.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

It’s not about being a better choice, I don’t think that matters at all to Kyle. What makes the leafs a better choice? Last time I’ve checked this core hasn’t won shit all. While both the pens and blues cores have won cups and know how to win. And I also don’t think the Blues and Pens jobs will be the only jobs available. Ottawa could be up for grabs, same with Calgary. We could see quite a few vacancies in the next few months.

Having good players isn’t everything. Especially if they can’t win no matter who you put around them. That would be enough to drive any GM a way. If you listen to a lot of interviews with executives and even head coaches, after a while they want new challenges. Even if they have good teams. For an executive being able to build is what they live for, so it doesn’t matter if the team is shit. They are going to do their job and try and build a winner.

Lastly like I mentioned before, if the leafs lose in the first round again and MLSE offers an extension, if I’m Kyle I’m not signing that right away. I’m going to explore my options now and decide whether I really want my legacy as a GM to be attached to a core group who cannot win playoff rounds.

The blues situation I don't think is bad at all. Thomas and Kyrou are good pieces to build around and they have some decent prospects in the system. They just need a retool.

The Pens situation is a complete mess and I wouldn't want to clean it up. They are an aging team with some guys that might be hard to move and the worst prospect pool in the league.

 

[saltming]

To be clear, those are only explanations of the numbers in my post, not the other ones.

In principle, you can weight games missed to injury by a whole host of different measures of player "value", so understand Hockey Reference's point shares to the be the basis for those other figures, though I can't shed any more light on (nor replicate) them. Definitely should not not be interpreted as any team being 30+ points worse off than they would be without any injuries though.

Still a good explanation. Much appreciated

 

[andora]

Ask and ye shall recieve

To be clear, those are only explanations of the numbers in my post, not the other ones.

In principle, you can weight games missed to injury by a whole host of different measures of player "value", so understand Hockey Reference's point shares to the be the basis for those other figures, though I can't shed any more light on (nor replicate) them. Definitely should not not be interpreted as any team being 30+ points worse off than they would be without any injuries though.

You sexy beasts thank you

 

[saltming]

You sexy beasts thank you

 

[Blanche Blanche]

What's at stake for the Maple Leafs in these playoffs? The future of the franchise

After six straight early postseason exits, the Maple Leafs must win a round this year or big changes could happen.

theathletic.com

This will be Dubas’ fifth postseason running the show. Each of the previous four went the distance, all in losing efforts. The Leafs were favoured twice — against the Blue Jackets and Canadiens. And were slight underdogs twice — against the Bruins and Lightning.

They’re arguably slight favourites over the Lightning this time around. Slight because while the Leafs finished with the superior record, goal differential, and territorial advantage, the Lightning are the Lightning. They’ve made three straight Final appearances (four with this particular core). They’ve gotten it done again and again when it counts. They’ve earned the overwhelming benefit of the doubt, the benefit of the doubt the Leafs lack at the moment.

The Leafs were this close to beating the Lightning last spring. Another losing effort, even if this close yet again, may not be enough to forestall major change. The Leafs got that mulligan after last season, which followed a brutal loss to Montreal in 2021.

If upper management/ownership is serious, it’s Dubas who may not be around in another first-round defeat. It’s also possible he decides to leave for another opportunity. And without Dubas around, with another GM in charge, all bets about the future of the team are off.

Does Auston Matthews want to see what the future looks like under new leadership before he commits to the organization with a contract extension this summer? Does William Nylander, who can also extend his contract? Does a GM not named Kyle Dubas opt against keeping Nylander? Do they take a sledgehammer to Dubas’ top-heavy roster-building approach and decide that one big piece has to go? Does said GM consider moving Morgan Rielly, the longest-serving Leaf who has seven years left and a $7.5 million cap hit on his contract?

Do the Leafs make their team worse in the process?

What becomes of head coach Sheldon Keefe if the Leafs fail to win a round? Keefe was brought in to take the Leafs where Mike Babcock could not. He’s been at the helm of the last three playoff exits.

The Leafs might have a new GM and coach if they can’t get past the Lightning.

We’re talking about major change here, potentially, without a tangible step forward.

Is Brendan Shanahan, team president for almost 10 years now, still overseeing the operation from up top?

Maybe Dubas, a la Alex Anthopolous, decides he doesn’t want to stay if the Leafs fail to advance. Maybe he decides to stay and the organization agrees to keep him, but only under the condition that something substantial changes — a core piece, the coach, something.

Agrée 100%. This series is the pinnacle for Matthews Era - core 4 Leafs

Casual fans it’s just another year… but real fans know a lot of shit is on the line

 

[ToneDog]

As of late he's been good, If we look at only the last 2 years.

Positive additions over the last 2 years: O'Reilly, McCabe, Bunting, Jarnkrok, Samsonov, Giordano and Schenn have all been good additions at their cap hit. Acciari has also been a decent bottom 6 add. Lafferty is pending... but the cost for him is so low.

Negative additions last 2 years: Only Mrazek and Murray have been bad signings. But they were both extremely bad. I'd also say not brining back Hyman over Kerfoot+Engvall was a massive mistake. But it looks like that money is going to go to O'Reilly and I'd probably take O'Reilly over Hyman for the playoffs because he's a C with insane defence, but it's close. Hyman wouldn't be an 80 point guy here. More like 60-70.

An A+ would look like

Hyman, O'Reilly, Bunting, McCabe, Bunting, Jarnkrok, Samsonov, Giordano and Schenn. So basically the Kerfoot+Murray cap going to Hyman.


But overall it's still very good and I'd give him a B+, it would would be A if not for Murray/Mrazek.

Great resume, 115 point franchise record, up and coming analytics guy, great drafter, fantastic human being. Yet he could not secure an extension. Puzzling.

I know if it were me and options were on the table to leave or stay, I would stay because of unfinished business and a positive future outlook. The team has been getting better, the cap is going up and we are starting to see another wave of young talent coming up to compliment the core, with the likes of Knies, Woll, Holmberg, Niemela, Hirvonen, Minten, Robertson, Kral etc.

After 4 yrs of drafting and developing, I would want to see what I've built come together.

All things being equal, he stays. It would have to be a deal too good to pass up for him to leave. See Zac Hyman.

 

[Sypher04]

I know if it were me and options were on the table to leave or stay, I would stay because of unfinished business and a positive future outlook. The team has been getting better, the cap is going up and we are starting to see another wave of young talent coming up to compliment the core, with the likes of Knies, Woll, Holmberg, Niemela, Hirvonen, Minten, Robertson, Kral etc.

After 4 yrs of drafting and developing, I would want to see what I've built come together.

I agree completely, and I think most GMs do look at things this way. It’s very rare to see a GM choose to leave a team.

 

[nuck]

I can’t see Dubas leaving unless they decide not to give him a new contract.
No way he walks away from what I bet he feels is a job unfinished.
If the Leafs fail again this year and he decided to walk away he would be forever known as the GM that couldn’t get Matthews, Marner, Will and Tavares past the first round…….a major stain on his career

The club is very much his creation now and only winning vindicates his vision. Nobody is going to hand him the keys to a team this close so I agree. can't see any circumstances where he leaves voluntarily. I think his personal motivation is to prove he is right and that things like the Tavares signing, the Nylander promise, and hanging on to Kerfoot were prudent decisions. I wonder if it requires getting past Boston to do that.

 

[PromisedLand]

Shanny/Dubas chatting with their buds

 

[francis246]

I agree completely, and I think most GMs do look at things this way. It’s very rare to see a GM choose to leave a team.

This happens all the time in pro sports. Brian Burke left Anaheim to take the job in Toronto. Anaheim was way better than Toronto, had won a cup recently and had a way better prospect pool, but he wanted a new challenge. I also think his wife also started working for ctv Toronto

Steve Yzerman built an incredible team in Tampa and could have had a cup but he wanted the challenge of building Detroit instead.

This isn’t a new thing. It’s more rare in hockey but it has happened lots in terms of managers and coaches. People acting like it’s never happened is a little ridiculous.

 

[Sypher04]

This happens all the time in pro sports. Brian Burke left Anaheim to take the job in Toronto. Anaheim was way better than Toronto, had won a cup recently and had a way better prospect pool, but he wanted a new challenge. I also think his wife also started working for ctv Toronto

Steve Yzerman built an incredible team in Tampa and could have had a cup but he wanted the challenge of building Detroit instead.

This isn’t a new thing. It’s more rare in hockey but it has happened lots in terms of managers and coaches. People acting like it’s never happened is a little ridiculous.

I don't think anyone is suggesting it has never happened or couldn't. But, like I said, it is rare.

 

[4thline]

We all would have liked to see more playoff success. No argument there. But some people have completely lost perspective and are taking for granted how good the Leafs have been the last 5 years. Blah blah inherited 105 point blah.

After the 2017-2018 another gm inherited (from himself) a 114 point team with 4 young stars up front, 2 great blossoming defenders, and one of the premier goalies in the game. They're an up and down bubble team that missed the playoffs last year

 

[Stephen]

This happens all the time in pro sports. Brian Burke left Anaheim to take the job in Toronto. Anaheim was way better than Toronto, had won a cup recently and had a way better prospect pool, but he wanted a new challenge. I also think his wife also started working for ctv Toronto

Steve Yzerman built an incredible team in Tampa and could have had a cup but he wanted the challenge of building Detroit instead.

This isn’t a new thing. It’s more rare in hockey but it has happened lots in terms of managers and coaches. People acting like it’s never happened is a little ridiculous.

You notice how Burke and Yzerman both left Southern markets to go to an Original Six prestige franchise?

I'll put it another way. Dubas could certainly go somewhere like Pittsburgh, but what would he be doing that would be fundamentally different than Hextall, which is building a junk cast around an old core with no prospect pipeline? What's the likelihood of success in that scenario? In the long run, he could rebuild that program from scratch and look like a hero like Yzerman is attempting to do, but is he doing a half dozen year long rebuild? Would Yzerman have had a better career in Tampa if he just hung around for the two cup runs if he didn't have to go home to Detroit?

Not for me to answer, but if I were in Dubas' shoes Pittsburgh would be a very unattractive option.

 

[egd27]

in my world I get paid to do what is right over the longer term.

And what happens to people in your world when they don't achieve their performance goals for 4 years in a row?

 

[keonsbitterness]

The standings say they had 4 fewer points than last year. Four fewer wins and 3 more loser points. Only 1 more win than Lou's last Leaf team.

Luckily Tampa is declining hard so we should beat them. Boston is the test.

View attachment 689272

This proves the 22-23 NHL season was played in alternate universes with the exact same results.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We all would have liked to see more playoff success. No argument there. But some people have completely lost perspective and are taking for granted how good the Leafs have been the last 5 years. Blah blah inherited 105 point blah.

After the 2017-2018 another gm inherited (from himself) a 114 point team with 4 young stars up front, 2 great blossoming defenders, and one of the premier goalies in the game. They're an up and down bubble team that missed the playoffs last year

Great post!

I'm sure someone will come back with "yeah but they've one more playoff rounds" but bit whoop. Compare the jobs that those 2 GM's have done and it's no contest, Dubas wins in a landslide.

 

[andora]

We all would have liked to see more playoff success. No argument there. But some people have completely lost perspective and are taking for granted how good the Leafs have been the last 5 years. Blah blah inherited 105 point blah.

After the 2017-2018 another gm inherited (from himself) a 114 point team with 4 young stars up front, 2 great blossoming defenders, and one of the premier goalies in the game. They're an up and down bubble team that missed the playoffs last year

who dat?

 

[4thline]

who dat?

Jets

Great post!

I'm sure someone will come back with "yeah but they've one more playoff rounds" but bit whoop. Compare the jobs that those 2 GM's have done and it's no contest, Dubas wins in a landslide.

I wasn't even meaning for a head to head comparison, just a conveniently parrelel cautionary tale. Sustaining a high end team is not a given

 

[Racer88]

The underlying data suggests it has shown continued improvement and if you look at the organization as a whole, it’s pretty undeniable they are in a much better place. Hopefully soon the playoff results.

Underlying Data is 100% meaningless if it doesn’t translate into results

The club is very much his creation now and only winning vindicates his vision. Nobody is going to hand him the keys to a team this close so I agree. can't see any circumstances where he leaves voluntarily. I think his personal motivation is to prove he is right and that things like the Tavares signing, the Nylander promise, and hanging on to Kerfoot were prudent decisions. I wonder if it requires getting past Boston to do that.

100%. Anyone who thinks he would walk away from unfinished business and the ability to have unlimited resources at his disposal is simply not thinking it thru

 

[hamzarocks]

Great post!

I'm sure someone will come back with "yeah but they've one more playoff rounds" but bit whoop. Compare the jobs that those 2 GM's have done and it's no contest, Dubas wins in a landslide.

Dubas has added more quality pieces to the team than Lou did for a few reasons outside of strong his own quality management abilities

1) Lou was brought in to tear down and rebuild. Not contend. He was here to fix the rot in the org and move us forward from the 6 years of us being reg season chokers who had internal chemistry issues

2) Lou had 1 year of contention vs 5 for Dubas. His only season where we expected playoffs going into the season and in round 1 was 2017-2018. Lou made moves to add/retain quality players in the summer of 2016 (rielly extension, Andersen trade + signing, kadri extension, and zaitsev rookie deal(he was a big name UFA D at the time)

3. Lou mostly was patient and did not make big name moves (we were rumored to McDonaugh in 2017-2018 deadline but decided to keep Kap+lilijgren+1st). He was mostly keeping guys deemed worthy of supporting the core around (hyman+brown extensions).

Dubas has done a pretty good job but he's also had the expectation to go and acquire some better players with toronto being an attractive destination due to the rot and culture issue which previously troubling us having been gone

Lou was the GM needed for 2015-2018 period.

Dubas has been pretty good outsude of playoffs for 2019-2023 period

If leafs lose in round 1 and dubas is gone. Then the next GM will be retooling the core and will be judged on value they get for nylander/matthews/marner (whomever is dealt)

 

[Gary Nylund]

Dubas has added more quality pieces to the team than Lou did for a few reasons outside of strong his own quality management abilities

1) Lou was brought in to tear down and rebuild. Not contend. He was here to fix the rot in the org and move us forward from the 6 years of us being reg season chokers who had internal chemistry issues

2) Lou had 1 year of contention vs 5 for Dubas. His only season where we expected playoffs going into the season and in round 1 was 2017-2018. Lou made moves to add/retain quality players in the summer of 2016 (rielly extension, Andersen trade + signing, kadri extension, and zaitsev rookie deal(he was a big name UFA D at the time)

3. Lou mostly was patient and did not make big name moves (we were rumored to McDonaugh in 2017-2018 deadline but decided to keep Kap+lilijgren+1st). He was mostly keeping guys deemed worthy of supporting the core around (hyman+brown extensions).

Dubas has done a pretty good job but he's also had the expectation to go and acquire some better players with toronto being an attractive destination due to the rot and culture issue which previously troubling us having been gone

Lou was the GM needed for 2015-2018 period.

Dubas has been pretty good outsude of playoffs for 2019-2023 period

If leafs lose in round 1 and dubas is gone. Then the next GM will be retooling the core and will be judged on value they get for nylander/matthews/marner (whomever is dealt)

I wasn't comparing Dubas/Lou. WPG was the 114 point team with the bright looking future referenced earlier, that's who I was talking about.

 

[francis246]

You notice how Burke and Yzerman both left Southern markets to go to an Original Six prestige franchise?

I'll put it another way. Dubas could certainly go somewhere like Pittsburgh, but what would he be doing that would be fundamentally different than Hextall, which is building a junk cast around an old core with no prospect pipeline? What's the likelihood of success in that scenario? In the long run, he could rebuild that program from scratch and look like a hero like Yzerman is attempting to do, but is he doing a half dozen year long rebuild? Would Yzerman have had a better career in Tampa if he just hung around for the two cup runs if he didn't have to go home to Detroit?

Not for me to answer, but if I were in Dubas' shoes Pittsburgh would be a very unattractive option.

Pittsburgh isn’t the only job that could be available to him. I could see Dubas being courted by Ottawa with new ownership. And it really depends on his goals really. If one of his goals is to become a president then I can see that job being attractive to him. Dubas is a really good GM who knows how to acquire picks. Not only that he’s good at drafting with limited resources. So I don’t think Pittsburgh is all that unattractive.

I think is average joes get caught up in the players and what the perception of the team is. But realistically for those in the business a job is a job. I think GM’s /Presidents/Executives look at all the jobs in the NHL the same. They probably all feel they can turn any team into a winner with the right resources and time.

Underlying Data is 100% meaningless if it doesn’t translate into results


100%. Anyone who thinks he would walk away from unfinished business and the ability to have unlimited resources at his disposal is simply not thinking it thru

LOL Yzerman walked away from guarenteed cups. What other evidence do you need?

I think it would be way harder to walk away from this team had they had some sort of post season success but they haven’t.

 

[Racer88]

Pittsburgh isn’t the only job that could be available to him. I could see Dubas being courted by Ottawa with new ownership. And it really depends on his goals really. If one of his goals is to become a president then I can see that job being attractive to him. Dubas is a really good GM who knows how to acquire picks. Not only that he’s good at drafting with limited resources. So I don’t think Pittsburgh is all that unattractive.

I think is average joes get caught up in the players and what the perception of the team is. But realistically for those in the business a job is a job. I think GM’s /Presidents/Executives look at all the jobs in the NHL the same. They probably all feel they can turn any team into a winner with the right resources and time.



LOL Yzerman walked away from guarenteed cups. What other evidence do you need?

I think it would be way harder to walk away from this team had they had some sort of post season success but they haven’t.

Hmmmmm apples And oranges……….the reason the Leafs havnt had any sort of post season success is now on Dubas. This is his team and it’s up to him to provide players with the ability to win, a coach with the ability to win and so far he has not been able to do that.
all that aside I sure hope that the Leafs go all the way or at least deep this year and we won’t even have to be discussing Dubas