Tribute Kyle Dubas discussion

[Dekes For Days]

Just because Goat isn't good enough, doesn't mean Petan is. It means you need better 4th liners.

Petan is good enough for the 4th line. There's literally nothing that says he isn't beyond some bitter fans with bad evaluation skills.

And the reality is, he's been better than Gauthier (and most of our 4th liners), who people want in over him for some baffling reason (apparently offense ).

 

[Ziggdiezan]

1. Barrie AND Kerfoot for Kadri. Kerfoot plays center, while Brown does not. Brown also had an insanely lucky start (when his center Pageau was on a crazy scoring streak) and had like 13 points in 10 games. He's had 6 points his last 19 games. Brown plays 18-21 minutes a night. It's not even comparable. Both are 30-45 point players, but Kerfoot has the advantage being a center and signed for longer.

2. Ceci is much better than Zaitsev. Ceci can at least move the puck efficiently but Zaitsev hasn't done that since half a season in his first year, and then add in that terrible contract. Oh god.

One of the main strengths of Dubas has been his trades.

Last time I check Brown had more points/60 at ES than anyone other than Matthews. He had more primary points/60 than anyone but Nylander and Matthews. He straight up has just been producing better than the vast majority of leaf wingers. He did have a hot start then a dry period but has put up 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 games.

I would say it is hard to argue that Kerfoot has been more impactful than Brown this season, especially considering Brown matches up against the others teams best line. Not talking about value just on ice impact.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yeah as poor as Ceci has been zaitsev is still even worse.

Ceci: ES 18:30, +1.0oz-dz%, .62p60, 50.5cf% (-6.4rel), 48.3xgf% (-0.2rel)
Zaits: ES 19:06, +0.4oz-dz%, .62p60, 42.7cf% (-13.2rel), 46.9xgf% (-0.6rel)

Thankfully neither will be on our team much longer.

Guessing both are pretty close to the top of the league in QoC?

 

[Teeder Keon]

Yeah as poor as Ceci has been zaitsev is still even worse.

Ceci: ES 18:30, +1.0oz-dz%, .62p60, 50.5cf% (-6.4rel), 48.3xgf% (-0.2rel)
Zaits: ES 19:06, +0.4oz-dz%, .62p60, 42.7cf% (-13.2rel), 46.9xgf% (-0.6rel)

Thankfully neither will be on our team much longer.

Guessing both are pretty close to the top of the league in QoC?

Let’s compare a little closer shall we ...

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yeah as poor as Ceci has been zaitsev is still even worse.

Ceci: ES 18:30, +1.0oz-dz%, .62p60, 50.5cf% (-6.4rel), 48.3xgf% (-0.2rel)
Zaits: ES 19:06, +0.4oz-dz%, .62p60, 42.7cf% (-13.2rel), 46.9xgf% (-0.6rel)

Thankfully neither will be on our team much longer.



Let’s compare a little closer shall we ...
View attachment 290219

I dont hate Ceci as much as others. I feel part of the problem with that pairing is Rielly is injuried and has been playing really bad. You see Ceci jumping up into the rush more than Rielly as Rielly is struggling to skate properly.

 

[zeke]

Guessing both are pretty close to the top of the league in QoC?

corsica is shut down now so i can't check that number, but earlier in the year Ceci was definitely ranked right near the top of the league in qoc.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Petan is good enough for the 4th line. There's literally nothing that says he isn't beyond some bitter fans with bad evaluation skills.

And the reality is, he's been better than Gauthier (and most of our 4th liners), who people want in over him for some baffling reason (apparently offense ).

The fact that Petan is better than most of our 4th liners says we need better 4th liners.

You need 4 lines that can chip in he can't

 

[Teeder Keon]

I dont hate Ceci as much as others. I feel part of the problem with that pairing is Rielly is injuried and has been playing really bad. You see Ceci jumping up into the rush more than Rielly as Rielly is struggling to skate properly.

I don’t hate
Buttt
I literally think , and this is just my opinion , watching , observing , critiquing and playing hockey and other sports for over 55 years
So only my opinion
CC should not be in the NHL
Seems like a good person
But he is a AhL player and unfortunately Babcock wanted to do Babcock things and be the hero in making a average AHLer into a 1st line D man to stroke his ego
He was a victim of that
Having said that I stick to my opinion
GLG

 

[Teeder Keon]

The fact that Petan is better than most of our 4th liners says we need better 4th liners.

You need 4 lines that can chip in he can't

As bad as Petan is in the NHL the type of player he is shouldn’t be on a 4th line
He should be on a second line on the A

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I don’t hate
Buttt
I literally think , and this is just my opinion , watching , observing , critiquing and playing hockey and other sports for over 55 years
So only my opinion
CC should not be in the NHL
Seems like a good person
But he is a AhL player and unfortunately Babcock wanted to do Babcock things and be the hero in making a average AHLer into a 1st line D man to stroke his ego
He was a victim of that
Having said that I stick to my opinion
GLG

Ya I definitely have a different opinion, he is at the very worst a bottom pairing guy in the NHL. I respectively agree to disagree on him being AHL quality.

A good buddy of mine is a huge Sens fans so I watched a ton of sens games when he lived in town like 4 or 5 years ago. I remember Ceci playing pretty damn well in those days and then the team just nose dived horribly and all the defensive load got put square on his shoulders when he had EK, Methot etc carrying the load before.

I think his confidence plummeted and he hasnt been the same since.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

corsica is shut down now so i can't check that number, but earlier in the year Ceci was definitely ranked right near the top of the league in qoc.

Damn that is too bad, I have been using Natural Stat so didnt see it go down. Any news if Corsica is down permanently?

 

[ShaneFalco]

Petan is good enough for the 4th line. There's literally nothing that says he isn't beyond some bitter fans with bad evaluation skills.

And the reality is, he's been better than Gauthier (and most of our 4th liners), who people want in over him for some baffling reason (apparently offense ).

He's not 6'4

 

[Menzinger]

Damn that is too bad, I have been using Natural Stat so didnt see it go down. Any news if Corsica is down permanently?

Im pretty sure the guy who ran it got hired by an NHL team, so probably

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Im pretty sure the guy who ran it got hired by an NHL team, so probably

Fair enough, it is the way many of these sites go down. I'm pretty Arizona hired the main guy from a big cap website a few years ago.

 

[Menzinger]

Fair enough, it is the way many of these sites go down. I'm pretty Arizona hired the main guy from a big cap website a few years ago.

I'm still mildly mad at Dubas for hiring the guy who ran Extra Skater lol

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I'm still mildly mad at Dubas for hiring the guy who ran Extra Skater lol

Lol ya it is true. Basically taking away our public stats and just using them privately for the benefit of 1 organization

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Toronto Maple Leafs: Morgan Rielly’s Performance Without Cody Ceci

Mo is much better away from Ceci for what its worth or how much weight it carries.

 

[stopclickbait]

You know Dubas has made a strong team when people are complaining about a 4th liner and a back up goalie lol

Anyways not sure the hate for Petan reminds me of last year when everyone thought Nylander wasn’t playing well despite putting up great possession numbers and just not getting the puck luck.

Then bam his puck luck evens out this year and suddenly he is a great player again.

I would love to see the correlation of people who want to trade Nylander and think Petan is doing bad on the 4th line I would bet they are the same people lol

Anyways it’s just a 4th liner who gonna play 10 minutes if they can start mostly in the defensive zone while putting up positive possession stats sounds like easy player to play and to like.

 

[Teeder Keon]

Here’s the thing ...
I love our Leafs and all that comes with it .
I totally understand that today’s hockey and sports for that matter is not the same , and good on it , as I wouldn’t want it to be .
We used to have 7 players on each side lol
And you couldn’t slap the puck and goalies didn’t wear masks ..
So evolution in humanity and sports is awesome ..
It’s not my favourite way to enjoy hockey but what the hell , my daughter loves it and they aren’t catering to a 63 year old so I get it ..
So I watch and admire the skill and speed and athleticism of all these players
To me the late 60s , 70s and , 80s were the best for hockey and to tell you the truth in music and life but what do I know lol
So now back to my point ...
These 3rd and especially 4th liners we have
Especially the 4th liners I’ll say again ..
We keep talking about them and the pros and cons of each of them ..
The only thing I’ll say is that when players used to come up and get their chance ,or were traded for ala Petan , Goat , Aberg , Tima , Kerfoot and more ..
Man on man they made some kind of an impression in some form or another , scoring , hitting , fighting , sticking up for the others , pissing players off , agitating , face offs , corner work , dogged play etc etc etc
Kinda like Grabo did or way back Daoust did or even Gabby yes Boudreau when he came up with the Leafs , and a host of others to try to impress their teammates , coaches , fans and other organizations ..
What I see from these guys is Meh meh meh
Maybe a shift here and there or an assist
But what I don’t see is passion or fire in there eyes nada ziltch ...
I’ve said it before and not to pick on Petan again but when he was given this opportunity against Van in his home town in front of family and friends and knowing he’s on the fence for a job
Wtf nothing from him or Kerfoot the same
What’s wrong with these guys ?
I remember getting chances here and there in sports
I literally would almost die to show I belonged every shift every game every time I even fought in practice if need be !
And way back when
IN my day lol
It was the same for any player getting the chance ..
That’s just the way I see it ..
And another point

Dubas I like you and your plan and vision
But c’mon
Get some effin sand paper and size on our 4Th line to offset our other terrific talented skill ( soft mind you ) but elite players we have .
So go out and balance that with a crazy in your face fast big mean 4th line
Stop with the same smurf passive ones we are littered with , and with that said , that don’t even produce ...
Go effin Leafs Go

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Toronto Maple Leafs: Morgan Rielly’s Performance Without Cody Ceci

Mo is much better away from Ceci for what its worth or how much weight it carries.

Unfortunately the sample size is way too small to try to provide any meaningful evaluation using advanced stat so I wouldnt pay that much attention. Rielly has played with Ceci around 72% of his ES shifts from what I can see quickly looking at Dobber. Not nearly enough data for the non Ceci pairing stats. Then there is the fact that Rielly+Ceci got deployed completely different than Rielly and Barrie have been deployed, both QoC and zone usage.

 

[Menzinger]

You know Dubas has made a strong team when people are complaining about a 4th liner and a back up goalie lol

Anyways not sure the hate for Petan reminds me of last year when everyone thought Nylander wasn’t playing well despite putting up great possession numbers and just not getting the puck luck.

Then bam his puck luck evens out this year and suddenly he is a great player again.

I would love to see the correlation of people who want to trade Nylander and think Petan is doing bad on the 4th line I would bet they are the same people lol

Anyways it’s just a 4th liner who gonna play 10 minutes if they can start mostly in the defensive zone while putting up positive possession stats sounds like easy player to play and to like.

The one weird thing on this forum is the expectations some folks have for 4th liners and 7/6 D men.

I mean theres a REASON why theyre playing so fsr down the lineup lol.

Not to mention, we have a tendency to overrate other teams lower lineup guys

 

[sxvnert]

Prefer a fourth line of Engvall-Spezza-Moore

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Unfortunately the sample size is way too small to try to provide any meaningful evaluation using advanced stat so I wouldnt pay that much attention. Rielly has played with Ceci around 72% of his ES shifts from what I can see quickly looking at Dobber. Not nearly enough data for the non Ceci pairing stats. Then there is the fact that Rielly+Ceci got deployed completely different than Rielly and Barrie have been deployed, both QoC and zone usage.

yeah thats why i said for what its worth there. I guess trading him during the season was not accounted for as priority when he was signed or a large signing bonus could have been front loaded in the contract.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Last time I check Brown had more points/60 at ES than anyone other than Matthews. He had more primary points/60 than anyone but Nylander and Matthews. He straight up has just been producing better than the vast majority of leaf wingers. He did have a hot start then a dry period but has put up 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 games.

I would say it is hard to argue that Kerfoot has been more impactful than Brown this season, especially considering Brown matches up against the others teams best line. Not talking about value just on ice impact.

Brown has a 2.18 points/60 at even-strength, while Toronto has 6 players with a better points/60 (Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Mikheyev and Spezza).

Brown's doing great in Ottawa and I'm happy for him, but it's been 19 games since he's been red-hot (That's the reasoning for my 19 games sample size, in case you were wondering why I picked a weird number LOL). 6 points in his last 19 games has brought him down back to normal. Kerfoot has 5 points in his last 19 games, while being a center and playing significantly less minutes.

Brown has been more impactful for sure this season thus far, not disagreeing. But I'm talking about who's more valuable to the Leafs now and going forward, and that would be Kerfoot hands-down.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Brown has a 2.18 points/60 at even-strength, while Toronto has 6 players with a better points/60 (Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Mikheyev and Spezza).

Brown's doing great in Ottawa and I'm happy for him, but it's been 19 games since he's been red-hot (That's the reasoning for my 19 games sample size, in case you were wondering why I picked a weird number LOL). 6 points in his last 19 games has brought him down back to normal. Kerfoot has 5 points in his last 19 games, while being a center and playing significantly less minutes.

Brown has been more impactful for sure this season thus far, not disagreeing. But I'm talking about who's more valuable to the Leafs now and going forward, and that would be Kerfoot hands-down.

Ah I think I was thinking of 5 on 5 where is pretty much tied with Nylander at 4th best on the leafs. He is around 4th in primary points/60 too. Still has decreased significantly since I last checked like 2 weeks ago whereby he was actually 2nd after Matthews. Spezza being first in pretty much all points/60 catagories is pretty funny but he has been excellent. Such a smart player.

My guess was the 19 games was pretty much his cold streak but he has turned that around the last few games. Kerfoot has like half the points/60 than Brown even including the cold streak+hot streak. I dont think either the cold or hot streak was indictive of Brown's overall play/ability but when you average them out it gets more realistic and he has been a much more productive winger than the majoirty of leaf wingers but your own data. If you look at just his cold streak then it looks more similar with Kerfoot but I don't think that is the best analysis (I.e. ignoring the times he was productive)

I agree that Kerfoot holds more value going forward for the leafs largely due to the fact the leafs have no good 3C replacement after Kerfoot in the short or long term (maybe Spezza for short term). However if Brown continues to be close to twice as productive at ES all while shutting down opponents best lines and playing a ton of PK time I think you could make an argument for him being more valuable in general (not to the leafs). A lot will also depend on his next contract but he expires a RFA.