Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

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Lou Lamoriello early in his career as GM for the Devils, made it all the way to game 7 of the Conference Finals. A good accomplishment and feat our franchise hasn’t reached since 1993. If the Leafs did that expectations would be through the roof and anything less than at least a repeat performance would be seen as a failure, and really most people would expect a Finals appearance.

What transpired over the next 5 seasons was anything but. The Devils misses the playoffs the very next season, then were booted out of the first round in each of the next four seasons.

If this happened in Toronto Lou would’ve been fired after the second straight first round exit, let alone seeing two more afterwards before the Devils finally returned to the Conference Finals, 6 seasons later. If Devils ownership had been as trigger happy and itching for a firing as Leafs fans are right now Lou would never have gotten the opportunity to become the legend he is now, nor would he become the favoured stick with which contrarians on here use to beat on Dubas and Leafs management.

If the argument is “well he made the Conference Finals his first year, of course if that happened we would want him to stay and work through it” you are bull shitting. Cliff Fletcher made back to back Conference Finals, one of which went to game 7, and ended up fired just three seasons later after getting booted out in the first round twice and missing the playoffs once.

I’m not trying to say Dubas is going to lead the Leafs to three Cups over the next decade, or that he’s the only one who can turn this franchise into a Cup contender, he’s made some errors that have hopefully been rectified now. My main point is that everyone’s favourite GM, who is worshipped and constantly used to insult and criticize Dubas, would likely have not survived in this market if he had endured the failures he had early in his career.
 
Sorry I don't understand the bolded. What do those numbers mean?

They're all percentile ranks.

So if you total up all kadri's offensive contributions (at any strength) and compare to the league he's in the 87th percentile, and all his defensive contributions (at any strength) rank him in the 16th percentile.

Add up all his contributions together (offense, defense, and penalties drawn/taken) and Kadri ranks in the 77th percentile of all players.

For reference here's what percentile the rest of the leafs end up in:

Matthews 99th
Tavares 93rd
Marner 91st

Nylander 84
Thornton 72
Kerfoot 70

Hyman 67
Mikheyev 54* (only 1yr of data)
(Johnsson 53)
Engvall 52* (only 1yr of data)

Boyd 48
Spezza 46
(Kapanen 45)
Vesey 45
Simmonds 5


The eyebrow raiser there would be Thornton being that high, but truth is before last year he was actually still legit good. But he's 41 so this might just be a case of the aging curves they apply just don't handle players that old too well.
 
Lou Lamoriello early in his career as GM for the Devils, made it all the way to game 7 of the Conference Finals. A good accomplishment and feat our franchise hasn’t reached since 1993. If the Leafs did that expectations would be through the roof and anything less than at least a repeat performance would be seen as a failure, and really most people would expect a Finals appearance.
Even though it wasn't making it to a Game 7 in the Conference Finals, the Leafs did make other Conference Finals appearances in 1994, 1999, and 2002.

Plus in 2002 the Leafs went to six games with Carolina, so they have reached that round of the playoffs more than one time since 1993.
 
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What deals did he screw up? (He didn’t sign Ladd and Boychuk to the combined $11.5M dead weight on his cap)

Smart teams buy players that contribute to winning. Whether you like the player or agree his stats match his salary, Lamoriello built a team to win in the playoffs. He made it to the conference finals this year after upsetting the defending champs the previous season. Relative to expectations and considering where they’ve been the past 30 years, it’s hard to come up with an honest argument that he hasn’t done well in NY.

We'll see. They were dropping like a stone after a hot start and were saved by the lock down. And now they've lost key players like Toews. We'll see how they do this year.
 
Lou values vet depth assets, and seemingly not a fan of locking in younger core puces. Hence why he traded a top 4 rfa D man for a couple 2nds and opted not to lock in Barzal long term.

The Islanders success over the next couple seasons and their ability to resign Barzal to see if it would have been a better strategy for the Leafs to follow. Im sure Islanders fans are hoping their team performs next season more like the playoff bubble version, than the regular season one that was heading to a playoff miss if it wasn't for the covid disruption saving them.
 
But you go largely on points. A stat. And a very basic one.

So stop criticizing using statistics when you use statistics.
I'll focus on the dynamics of the game and watching it and you focus on computing who is better. I've said it many times before. I not only have an advanced degree in math but I've worked in statistical modeling for a few decades. The application of statistics within forum discussions is pretty cringe worthy. No data scientist worth their salt concludes so much unless they are looking for clickbait.
 
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They're all percentile ranks.

So if you total up all kadri's offensive contributions (at any strength) and compare to the league he's in the 87th percentile, and all his defensive contributions (at any strength) rank him in the 16th percentile.

Add up all his contributions together (offense, defense, and penalties drawn/taken) and Kadri ranks in the 77th percentile of all players.

For reference here's what percentile the rest of the leafs end up in:

Matthews 99th
Tavares 93rd
Marner 91st

Nylander 84
Thornton 72
Kerfoot 70

Hyman 67
Mikheyev 54* (only 1yr of data)
(Johnsson 53)
Engvall 52* (only 1yr of data)

Boyd 48
Spezza 46
(Kapanen 45)
Vesey 45
Simmonds 5


The eyebrow raiser there would be Thornton being that high, but truth is before last year he was actually still legit good. But he's 41 so this might just be a case of the aging curves they apply just don't handle players that old too well.

So the 16 next to Kadri's name means he's among the worst players in the league defensively? That doesn't seem right.
 
I'll focus on the dynamics of the game and watching it and you focus on computing who is better. I've said it many times before. I not only have an advanced degree in math but I've worked in statistical modeling for a few decades. The application of statistics within forum discussions is pretty cringe worthy. No data scientist worth their salt concludes so much unless they are looking for clickbait.

You're right I never watch games. Only spreadsheets.
 
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Lou values vet depth assets, and seemingly not a fan of locking in younger core puces. Hence why he traded a top 4 rfa D man for a couple 2nds and opted not to lock in Barzal long term.

The Islanders success over the next couple seasons and their ability to resign Barzal to see if it would have been a better strategy for the Leafs to follow. Im sure Islanders fans are hoping their team performs next season more like the playoff bubble version, than the regular season one that was heading to a playoff miss if it wasn't for the covid disruption saving them.
Without a doubt I think if 82 games were played last season the Islanders would have missed the playoffs. Right before the regular season got suspended the Islanders were on a 7 game losing streak with a record of 0-4-3.
 
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His skills and style of play are eye test candy, and he benefits more than most from factors that benefit raw production. He's a great player, but those things tend to make people overrate players, as most people rely almost exclusively on their flawed eye test and raw points.

Exactly what I think.

I just dont understand how it's such a widespread thing around. Like if you wanna argue above Matthews, fine. I think you're wrong, but fine. Above McD? Come on.
 
Say the tax benefit is 1 mill per year of the contract

Barzal makes 250k more so we need to find 750k in value. Now account for Point coming off a 92 point season and being the better overall player, that adds 500k so there is 250k in value still remaining. Using AP as the benchmark, who was estimated to sign for ~10 mill pre- COVID, let’s say at the top of the scale AP lost 1.2 mill per year due to COVID. Let’s be generous and say 30% less to account for diminishing returns from 10 to 7 million, and we have 800k.

With this, admittedly very crude, math there is roughly 500k of value not accounted for using Point as a comparable.
The thing I always bring up about taxes...

I get it for ufa's. Three teams offer you 10x5. A motivating factor would be to go to the city with lower taxes. Sure. I get it. It affects where players go.

But when it comes to actual contract value, the players and their agents look at comparable players cap% at time of signing and term.

If a rfa player/agent said "These players are my best comparables, and they average at 9% of the cap at 6 years."

Imagine the GM responded "But you pay less taxes than those comparables."

Know what the player/agent response would be? "Good for me. Happy day."

Imagine now the GM responded "No no no. You see... we're going to subtract out your tax advantage from your total salary and pretty much give it to the billionaire owners. Sound good? Let's sign".

There's just simply no way the players/agent would go for that. It's all nonsense.


I'm also confused about the morality of all this. When ceo's who make about $100 million in their careers look for legal ways to limit paying taxes, we consider them morally reprehensible. Yet hockey players are borderline encouraged to do it. Nobody has any moral problems with it whatsoever. It's baffling.
 
We'll see. They were dropping like a stone after a hot start and were saved by the lock down. And now they've lost key players like Toews. We'll see how they do this year.
A bi product of success is that you can’t keep everyone. They didn’t win a cup but a conference finals is pretty good.

Compare that with the Leafs who’ve had to dump salary without even winning a round.
 
A bi product of success is that you can’t keep everyone. They didn’t win a cup but a conference finals is pretty good.

Compare that with the Leafs who’ve had to dump salary without even winning a round.
I thought Dubas needed to trade Kapanen and Johnsson due the cap being flat and not going up like it was expected to before Covid.

However that didn't prevent him from signing Brodie, Thornton, Simmonds, Bogosian, Vesey, and Dell.
 
Besides Barzal's rookie season when he got 85 points and won the Calder, the next two seasons he had 62 and 60 points. Now some say that's because of Barry Trotz system, however should he be making $7 million AAV based on his last two seasons?
I brought this up regarding Nylander/Pastrnak.

Nylander's final elc year pace: 21 goals/62 points.
Pastrnak: 37 goals/78 points.

When I said the final year should have more weight, I was laughed out of here.

So if we follow what most everyone was saying here regarding Nylander/Pastrnak, we'll see that Barzal got .91 ppg over elc, and Marner got .93 Point was .87

Pretty close comparables... Marner deserved slightly more money based on that. But wait, there's more. I was told in the Matthews debates that elite centers get a premium. So that pretty much evens it up. But wait... there's more. I was told that goal scoring centers get a mega premium in the Matthews threads. Point gpg over elc: 0.4 Marner gpg over elc: (lol) 0.28

I find the lack of consistency as baffling as it is infuriating.
 
Without a doubt I think if 82 games were played last season the Islanders would have missed the playoffs. Right before the regular season got suspended the Islanders were on a 7 game losing streak with a record of 0-4-3.
and we were 1 game above .500 in our last 27

basically we had a very hot 20 game stretch after Babs was fired sandwiched between playing exactly .500 the rest of the year
 
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and we were 1 game above .500 in our last 27

basically we had a very hot 20 game stretch after Babs was fired sandwiched between playing exactly .500 the rest of the year
So other than one 20 games stretch of the alleged "new coach high", the leafs have been slightly over a .500 team since December 2018. lol
 
We'll see. They were dropping like a stone after a hot start and were saved by the lock down. And now they've lost key players like Toews. We'll see how they do this year.

Few teams benefited more from the league shutdown than the Islanders. It’s forgotten now because they went on a great run in the bubble playoffs but they were most assuredly falling in the standings and there was a chance they may have missed had the season been played to conclusion.

Coming from us it’ll sound like sour grapes sure, but it’s not not objective. They were 2-4-4 in their last 10 when COVID ruined the world.
 
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Few teams benefited more from the league shutdown than the Islanders. It’s forgotten now because they went on a great run in the bubble playoffs but they were most assuredly falling in the standings and there was a chance they may have missed had the season been played to conclusion.

Coming from us it’ll sound like sour grapes sure, but it’s not not objective. They were 2-4-4 in their last 10 when COVID ruined the world.
8 points in their last 10 games. The leafs got 10 points. I think you just may be overstating the significance of a mere 2 points.
 
and we were 1 game above .500 in our last 27

basically we had a very hot 20 game stretch after Babs was fired sandwiched between playing exactly .500 the rest of the year

With a couple significant injuries to the top 4 in that period.

Fact remains under Keefe the Leafs were on pace for a 100+ point season. Which wasn't the case for Trotz and the Islanders
 
and we were 1 game above .500 in our last 27

basically we had a very hot 20 game stretch after Babs was fired sandwiched between playing exactly .500 the rest of the year

In a year where our goalie uncharacteristically played completely mediocre, worse goaltending than he ever gave Babcock, and this team dealt with long and key injuries throughout the year, especially in the second half.
 
With a couple significant injuries to the top 4 in that period.

Fact remains under Keefe the Leafs were on pace for a 100+ point season. Which wasn't the case for Trotz and the Islanders
another fun fact is they made it to the conference finals while we got knocked out trying to qualify for the 1st rd
 
Toronto was 3rd in the Atlantic and in a playoff spot. The Islanders were 5th in the Metro and out of a playoff spot.
and they were 1 pt behind with 2 games in hand on the powerhouse Jackets team which prevented us from qualifying for the playoffs
 
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