Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[Dekes For Days]

The sequence of events of 2015 picks getting $10+ million salaries started with Connor McDavid. As a generational talent coming off a 100 point season he was given a $12.5 million deal over 8 years which set the bar for what a franchise center makes. This was a pretty significant jump on Kane, Toews, Kopitar who were the previous high bar

McDavid did not set any contract bar. These contracts are not unusual; they have risen above 10m in raw cap hit because the cap has risen. You don't seem to understand that raw AAVs cannot be used to compare contracts signed under different caps, and with different terms.

Kane and Toews got contracts equal to about 9m x 5 years under today's cap. Kopitar got a contract equal to about 9.8m x 7 years under today's cap. Crosby's post-ELC contract was the "bar", and it was the equivalent of 14.1m x 5 years signed today. There have been many post-ELC contracts that fell above Kane/Toews/Kopitar in contract value. You are misrepresenting these new contracts as unusual or unprecedented, when it's really just your misunderstanding of how contracts work.

Next came Jack Eichel, who settled at $10 million with the Sabres. This salary was not reflective of his production at the time but as the next generation of franchise center he was dragged up by McDavid. This process also dragged up Matthews. Matthews has never produced anywhere near McDavid but has long been hyped as number two of their draft eras, superseding Jack Eichel very early on. He gets an AAV that splits the difference between Eichel and McDavid.

The true irony here is that each one of Aho, Rantanen, Marner, Point (and Barzal) have single season career highs that are superior to Auston Matthews and Jack Eichel due to injuries and other factors, so teams are valuing Eichel and Matthews as part of a franchise center category that the others are excluded from.

What’s different about Marner versus Aho, Point and Rantanen is teams were able to successfully decouple pure points production from their AAV price tags whereas Marner’s group was able to successfully attach his value to Matthews salary. Since he produced so much in 2019, they successfully hitched his contract to the franchise center cohort.

Literally none of what you are saying here is true. You have never supported any of your claims.

Single-season raw point totals are not the sole factor (or even primary factor) in determining contract valuation, especially when there is zero context applied. Matthews was not dragged up by McDavid; he aligns with the large majority of high-end post-ELC contracts. The reason he got a similar contract to McDavid is because he had posted a similar level of production through their respective pre-signing periods. For the record, he was also on a 50 goal, 100 point pace when he signed in his 3rd year.

There is no grouping of players into arbitrary "cohorts"; that is just a way for you to completely change the criteria when your suggested criteria doesn't match what happened at all. Marner was not attached to Matthews' salary, or put into any alternative grouping. His signing did not utilize any different rules.

I laid out, in detail, how Marner was better than these comparables you yourself chose, and you have simply ignored it. As I've shown, Aho, Rantanen, and Eichel had similar levels of production, Matthews/McDavid had similar levels of production, and Marner had a level of production that fell in the middle. Their resulting contracts reflect exactly that. I'm not sure why you would make these claims when the real reasons for their respective contracts are beyond clear, and have been explained to you.

 

[Dreakmur]

If Matthews plays this whole season like he played in the Columbus series, he'll challenge for the Rocket Richard, Selke, and Hart Trophies.

 

[LeafsNation75]

McDavid did not set any contract bar. These contracts are not unusual; they have risen above 10m in raw cap hit because the cap has risen. You don't seem to understand that raw AAVs cannot be used to compare contracts signed under different caps, and with different terms.

So how come no other player has signed for 7 or 8 years with an AAV that's over $12.5 million if McDavid did not set the bar.

John Tavares could have done that because San Jose was offering him 7 years and $13 million AAV, however we know that never happened.

 

[hamzarocks]

Basically right now there's a group of like 5 guys or so including McDavid Point Matthews Kucherov, MacKinnon (maybe a couple others) that are all basically pick'em at the moment.

McDavid when he first came into the league never needed to cheat to produce at his super elite rate. The last couple years, though, he's had to cheat hugely on defense to keep up that production.

Really you have point that high? After 1 great regular season and 2 great playoffs?

I think Draisaitl should be there if 97 is there. Both are poor defensively but both also produce offense like no one else. Crosby if healthy I also consider top 5. Right now I dont have Matthews top 5 but he isnt that far from those players listed. Think this is his year could see a sweep of awards type season fron him.

 

[hamzarocks]

Matthews could win the Hart, Art Ross, Conn Smythe, Ted Lindsay, Rocket Richard, and get voted the #1 Center on the First NHL All Star team in a season and I'm sure others will say McDavid is still the better overall player.

If that happens it doesnt matter what other fans say. It would be 3 straight years of 97 not taking hardware and a season like that makes Matthews at worse 1B to Mcdavids 1A.

 

[zeke]

Edmonton's team is far worse than Toronto's though which needs to be taken into account though. Edmonton's D core is terrible and their forwards are pretty bad too. People actually don't realise how terrible that team is and how little he has to work with. I get that his defensive numbers are really bad right now but I'm not convinced that on a good team he doesn't blow the league out of the water.
Like I think Matthews can challenge for second best player in the league as early as this season and overall is better defensively than McDavid, but McDavid is the best player I have ever seen play hockey, full stop.

But they can measure how he performs defensively relative to his team, even when its crappy.

His team was just as bad his first couple years and he had no problem being decent defensively then.

 

[zeke]

Really you have point that high? After 1 great regular season and 2 great playoffs?

I think Draisaitl should be there if 97 is there. Both are poor defensively but both also produce offense like no one else. Crosby if healthy I also consider top 5. Right now I dont have Matthews top 5 but he isnt that far from those players listed. Think this is his year could see a sweep of awards type season fron him.

Point is phenomenal. And its not just one year - his production has always been there if you look past total points and adjust for minutes and usage. His offensive explosion was no surprise to anyone that looked closely at his earlier numbers. And he's also legit very good defensively.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Edmonton's team is far worse than Toronto's though which needs to be taken into account though. Edmonton's D core is terrible and their forwards are pretty bad too. People actually don't realise how terrible that team is and how little he has to work with. I get that his defensive numbers are really bad right now but I'm not convinced that on a good team he doesn't blow the league out of the water.
Like I think Matthews can challenge for second best player in the league as early as this season and overall is better defensively than McDavid, but McDavid is the best player I have ever seen play hockey, full stop.

Last season if all 82 games were played Edmonton was going to make the playoffs due to being top 3 in the Pacific Division. Their record ended up being 37-25-9 which got them 83 points and 2nd place in their division. Vegas finished 1st in the Pacific with a record of 39-24-8 which got them 86 points.

Toronto's record was 36-25-9 which got them 81 points and they were 3rd in the Atlantic.

However if you put Toronto in the Pacific Division last season they would have had an easier time making the playoffs if everything was normal.

 

[zeke]

Think this is his year could see a sweep of awards type season fron him.

That's how you know that Matthews really is that good - literally nobody would be shocked to see him win ALL the awards this year. Or next year. Like a clean sweep of goals points mvp and playoffs. Nobody would actually be shocked to see that happen. And there's not many players you can say that about.

 

[Stephen]

While it's true Aho, Rantanen, Marner, Point, and Barzal have had better overall point production compared to Matthews, they haven't scored as many goals in a season compared to Matthews. So that's something which sets them apart.

I think with Matthews and Eichel there’s the value of the position and the unofficial franchise player tag and ultimate upside that goes with the premium price tag. Which is why an argument based on points is never fully satisfying.

 

[LeafsNation75]

If that happens it doesnt matter what other fans say. It would be 3 straight years of 97 not taking hardware and a season like that makes Matthews at worse 1B to Mcdavids 1A.

Matthews being a 1B and McDavid being a 1A in that hypothetical makes sense, although it's a 99% chance it never happens. However if it did I would not complain.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I think with Matthews and Eichel there’s the value of the position and the unofficial franchise player tag and ultimate upside that goes with the premium price tag. Which is why an argument based on points is never fully satisfying.

The funny thing is on the National Hockey League talk forums, the discussion about Matthews ranking among other players from non Leafs fans always comes down to his total points. So it doesn't matter how many goals he scores or him being a franchise elite #1 Centre.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So how come no other player has signed for 7 or 8 years with an AAV that's over $12.5 million if McDavid did not set the bar.

Because there hasn't been a player in the last few years that compares to what McDavid did prior to signing, other than Matthews, and Matthews signed for less term. And usually, the cap continuously rises and we see lesser and lesser players getting higher and higher raw AAVs, but now we have a cap that has stagnated at a level that isn't substantially beyond McDavid's signing cap. So to approach that raw AAV, one would have to sign for max term and earn an at least somewhat similar cap hit percentage, which is rare.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

But they can measure how he performs defensively relative to his team, even when its crappy.

His team was just as bad his first couple years and he had no problem being decent defensively then.

What are you seeing that makes him look so bad?
I see a -1.3 CF%Rel at 5v5 close, the first time it's been a negative number in his entire career. And even that number translates to the enemy team having 1.04 extra shot attempt per game at 5v5 close, and McDavid is also tasked with doing so much on that team with little to work with.

Either way, I don't see how Matthews being a better defensive player makes him better overall anyways, since as you've pointed out many times - offence is more valuable than defense overall, and McDavid is on another level offensively from anyone in the league.

 

[Stephen]

The funny thing is on the National Hockey League talk forums, the discussion about Matthews ranking among other players from non Leafs fans always comes down to his total points. So it doesn't matter how many goals he scores or him being a franchise elite #1 Centre.

I think Matthews has the upside of what Mackinnon is doing right now. So he could and should be 1B to McDavid for that 2015 and 2016 group and be an utterly dominant factor in the game. That’s why you accept the heavy price tag and move forward.

For Marner, I don’t quite see him in the same light but I think he and the rest of the Big 4 are generating a kind of gravitational pull that’s bringing in a lot of players who want to go on a cup hunt for cheap with the Leafs so there are some major intangible upsides for keeping the band together.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I think Matthews has the upside of what Mackinnon is doing right now. So he could and should be 1B to McDavid for that 2015 and 2016 group and be an utterly dominant factor in the game. That’s why you accept the heavy price tag and move forward.

For Marner, I don’t quite see him in the same light but I think he and the rest of the Big 4 are generating a kind of gravitational pull that’s bringing in a lot of players who want to go on a cup hunt for cheap with the Leafs so there are some major intangible upsides for keeping the band together.

Until the 2017-18 Season when MacKinnon had 93 points and finished 2nd in the Hart Trophy voting, I think it's fair to say Matthews career had the better start compared to MacKinnon.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Because there hasn't been a player in the last few years that compares to what McDavid did prior to signing, other than Matthews, and Matthews signed for less term. And usually, the cap continuously rises and we see lesser and lesser players getting higher and higher raw AAVs, but now we have a cap that has stagnated at a level that isn't substantially beyond McDavid's signing cap. So to approach that raw AAV, one would have to sign for max term and earn an at least somewhat similar cap hit percentage, which is rare.

My point was Tavares had that chance to make more money than McDavid, because San Jose was desperate to sign him.

 

[zeke]

What are you seeing that makes him look so bad?
I see a -1.3 CF%Rel at 5v5 close, the first time it's been a negative number in his entire career. And even that number translates to the enemy team having 1.04 extra shot attempt per game at 5v5 close, and McDavid is also tasked with doing so much on that team with little to work with.

Either way, I don't see how Matthews being a better defensive player makes him better overall anyways, since as you've pointed out many times - offence is more valuable than defense overall, and McDavid is on another level offensively from anyone in the league.

He used to be on another level, but really isn't anymore. By many very good metrics, Auston and many others were legit better than him offensively, on top of him being one of the very least effective defensive players in all of hockey.

 

[AvroArrow]

Barzal signed for 3 years at 7M aav. And is still a RFA when that deal expires. Just makes the contracts Dubas handed out look even worse.

 

[Sypher04]

Barzal signed for 3 years at 7M aav. And is still a RFA when that deal expires. Just makes the contracts Dubas handed out look even worse.

It really doesn't. It's half the length of any deal dubas signed. Signed under the new reality of a flat cap instead of a growing one. And barzal isn't nearly as good as either Mitch or Auston

 

[ACC1224]

Barzal signed for 3 years at 7M aav. And is still a RFA when that deal expires. Just makes the contracts Dubas handed out look even worse.

It’ll be interesting the spin that will attempt to make this sound like a terrible deal.

 

[PromisedLand]

His agent didn't, and he wasn't paid as if he was.

Little did they know that he actually is, and that total points are a dumb way to evaluate players, which is why it's hilarious that a team with two "MVP"s can't make the playoffs.

what? lol you do know that Matthews' AAV was going to be higher than McDavid's if he had signed 8 yrs right?

 

[AvroArrow]

It’ll be interesting the spin that will attempt to make this sound like a terrible deal.

People have already started, the argument is he'll make 10m in the final year therefore any extension after will have to be 10+. Ignoring the reality that he took a cap friendlier deal NOW as an rfa, something i hoped Auston/Mitch would have done. I don't really mind Matthews contract tbh, he's our franchise guy, I love Marner but that contract really hurt this teams depth. Lou once again demonstrated how RFA negotiations should be done. Sucks to see what other star RFA's signed for vs our guys.

 

[Sypher04]

It’ll be interesting the spin that will attempt to make this sound like a terrible deal.

I think especially in this flat cap climate this is a very solid deal for both sides

 

[Dragao6]

It really doesn't. It's half the length of any deal dubas signed. Signed under the new reality of a flat cap instead of a growing one. And barzal isn't nearly as good as either Mitch or Auston

Yah
I def don’t agree
Matthews maybe but I’d marner not so much, specially at this contract I’d take barzal at 7 over marner easily and marner is my fav player
Lou showing dubas how it’s done, surprised me How low the cap hit is
Showing Shan Shan he should have stayed another 1 or 2 years till these contracts are signed
Barzal, franchise C just signed a nylander contract think about that
Marner at this cap hit would have allowed leafs to further improve this roster
Even though it might be better this year so all that matters is W’s