Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[ToneDog]

Lou's crappy contracts to mediocre players came back to bite him here. 3 years was all they could afford for their best player.

Isles had cap issues. I see this as Lou kicking the can down the road at which time he should be able to free up money for Barzal. Other choice was to desperately free up space now to accomodate Barzal like Dubas did with Marner but Lou chose the bridge deal. Isles' saving grace is that they do not have any players making 8 figures so Barzal will eventually get his piece of the pie if he performs over the life of this contract. At the end of the day, Lou could and Lou did.

 

[selltrade]

Who cares. Lou just signed matt martin to 4 yrs. Dubas got jumbo, vesey, simmonds, spezza on affordable 1 yr deals.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I think if Dubas was doing Barzal he's getting atleast 8.5 for 3 years.

Nah, he signed for 7, so that is what he would have got.

 

[ToneDog]

Who cares. Lou just signed matt martin to 4 yrs. Dubas got jumbo, vesey, simmonds, spezza on affordable 1 yr deals.

Martin, playing with Cezikas (sp) and Clutterbuck is better than any of those players but 1.5x4 is a bit rich with COVID. Beats the last deal Lou signed Martin for (I think).

 

[ToneDog]

Yeah, and that makes it all the more impressive. Lou was already in a tight situation like you said and he still managed to scrape out a very fair deal for that 3 year term.

Imagine, how in this day, we could have added if Dubas had bridged Marner ??

 

[ToneDog]

Nah, he signed for 7, so that is what he would have got.

Dubes barely got Nylander for 7 and Barzal would have been negotiating with an 85 point season in his resume. No way Dubas gets him for 7 with Marner making close to 11.

 

[Stephen]

Curious to see what the salary demands for Matthews and Marner will look like when their deals are up. With the Covid-19 fallout being what it is, prospects of depressed salaries and flat caps, will NHL superstar salaries even be at the $10 million + level by 2024 and 2025? If not, it's great news, as re-signing those two will be pretty easy, as you could just sign them to the same deals since no one else will have the space or cash anyway.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Imagine, how in this day, we could have added if Dubas had bridged Marner ??

At least one of the big 3 should have been bridged. Gives the team MUCH more flexibility.

 

[nuck]

Isles had cap issues. I see this as Lou kicking the can down the road at which time he should be able to free up money for Barzal. Other choice was to desperately free up space now to accomodate Barzal like Dubas did with Marner but Lou chose the bridge deal. Isles' saving grace is that they do not have any players making 8 figures so Barzal will eventually get his piece of the pie if he performs over the life of this contract. At the end of the day, Lou could and Lou did.

Barzal did not have the leverage for close to a Marner deal even without the flat cap. Why would he be interested in a long term deal unless he thinks last year is all he is. He is still RFA when its up. An okay deal for both and I doubt its going to be Lou handing out his next contract.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Barzal’s QO is $10 million isn’t it? He set himself up well on his next deal

 

[hamzarocks]

Barzal’s QO is $10 million isn’t it? He set himself up well on his next deal

8.4 million according to cap friendly the old rule where it was the final years salary is no longer in place

Its lower of
120% of AAV of the deal =8.4M
Last year salary of deal = 10M

So his Q/O is 8.4M but if he is closer to a 85-90 point guy he will get 10M anyway long term though he would have been on a steal of a deal for 3 years.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I mean, if Dubas had signed one of the big three to a bridge deal people would be just as pissed at him as they are now.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Barzal did not have the leverage for close to a Marner deal even without the flat cap. Why would he be interested in a long term deal unless he thinks last year is all he is. He is still RFA when its up. An okay deal for both and I doubt its going to be Lou handing out his next contract.

Barzal elc: 0.91 ppg
Marner elc: 0.93 ppg

They're pretty close comparables.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I mean, if Dubas had signed one of the big three to a bridge deal people would be just as pissed at him as they are now.

Not if the aav was in line with comparables (6.5-7 aav).

Some "insiders" reported Marner's proposed 3 year bridge at 9.5 aav. His direct comparables are signing 6.5-7 x 3. Marner would have *assuredly* gotten significantly more than that. So yes... many fans would complain.

 

[BlueBaron]

Imagine, how in this day, we could have added if Dubas had bridged Marner ??

Yeah the Covid era is no friend to teams that had most of their roster locked up. That said, Brodie probably would have got more in a normal year.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Dubes barely got Nylander for 7 and Barzal would have been negotiating with an 85 point season in his resume. No way Dubas gets him for 7 with Marner making close to 11.

Dubas paid slightly less than 7 for Nylander. Barzal would have got more term for the higher AVV, but for 3 he would have got 7 as that is what he signed for.

 

[zeke]

"Some stats", LOL.

You're on record saying you always use the same stats to compare players yet for some reason you haven't posted those stats to compare Matthews and McDavid. Have you changed your strategy to use "some stats" instead of "the same stats"?

Stats keep getting better and better, and I keep getting lazier and lazier. Also, some of the stats I needed to rely on are no longer available, specifically qoc stats from the now defunct corsica site.

Used to be i didn't trust most of the sites in the way they used the stats, but now they're starting to get really good at what they do, and really proving it with their track records.

Now we have models that are not only much more robust than my statspacs, but intrinsically include a good chunk of stuff that was previously missing regarding qoc and qot. Still nowhere near perfect (still some question marks around evaluating players that get extremely easy or extremely tough usage), of course, but very very good and useful.

And now we have what I consider to be the two best current models - Dom's at the Athletic, and the twins at Evolving-hockey - which are actually derived in entirely different ways but both very thorough, and they both agree that Matthews is arguably the best player in hockey right now, with no other player clearly above him now. Dom's model actually has him alone at #1 with 4.6 projected wins above replacement this year, while evolving hockey sees him as one of a handful of 99th percentile players this year.

 

[zeke]

Huge error bars on stats compiled on a player who couldn't even skate backwards.

Again, I wasn't the one giving Phaneuf all those Norris votes.

But yep, that was back when I was in denial about the advanced stats that said Phaneuf was bad.

I really didn't want to believe in those fancy stats back then.

Stupid me.

But, otoh, I learned my lesson.

 

[Sypher04]

Dubes barely got Nylander for 7 and Barzal would have been negotiating with an 85 point season in his resume. No way Dubas gets him for 7 with Marner making close to 11.

If the cap were not flat for the foreseeable future and the term was twice as long barzal wouldn't have gotten only 7, so it's a moot point what Nylander cost

 

[zeke]

Imagine, how in this day, we could have added if Dubas had bridged Marner ??

We could have added a $4m player, true enough.

I.e. we could have kept one of kappy or johnsson. Or signed Joel edmundson.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

The irony if Marner signed for 3x8, people would've been pissed - the same people that think Barzals deal is really good.

 

[hotpaws]

Again, I wasn't the one giving Phaneuf all those Norris votes.

But yep, that was back when I was in denial about the advanced stats that said Phaneuf was bad.

I really didn't want to believe in those fancy stats back then.

Stupid me.

But, otoh, I learned my lesson.

most didn't need any stats to realize Phaneuf was bad , just had to watch the stiff play

players like Phaneuf get by for years on name recognition due to fans unwilling to believe what they see on the ice

 

[hotpaws]

The irony if Marner signed for 3x8, people would've been pissed - the same people that think Barzals deal is really good.

considering he was willing to sign for 8.5m on a long term deal the year previously but Dubie wanted to slow play at that time fans would have had every right to be upset

why do you believe 3 x 8 was a reasonable bridge ? and why is it every one of our players is worth millions more than their comparable's

 

[ACC1224]

The irony if Marner signed for 3x8, people would've been pissed - the same people that think Barzals deal is really good.

Who are these same people ? Is there a list somewhere?

 

[zeke]

most didn't need any stats to realize Phaneuf was bad , just had to watch the stiff play

players like Phaneuf get by for years on name recognition due to fans unwilling to believe what they see on the ice

I'm not the one that gave him all those Norris votes.