Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[Stephen]

That's just flat out not true. Historically, contracts do not align properly when nothing other than raw points is considered.

The closest comparable you were able to cite for Mitch Marner's current contract earlier was Patrick Kane's post ELC deal, which was signed 10 years before Marner's under a completely different CBA, had a cap percentage difference of 11.09% vs 13.37% and was only superficially similar based on PPG averages.

The fact that you're not able to produce a high volume of suitable comparisons for the Marner contract, aka "sample size," really only says one thing. That his contract was unprecedented.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That's just flat out not true. Historically, contracts do not align properly when nothing other than raw points is considered.

No, [MOD]

The proven 100 point players sign 100 point contacts.

The proven 90 point players sing 90 point contracts.

And so on.

when proven 70 point players sign 100 point contracts, it’s universally considered a bad contract. Other than a minority of posters in leaf land who then cite a whole bunch of nonsense to rationalize it.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The closest comparable you were able to cite for Mitch Marner's current contract earlier was Patrick Kane's post ELC deal, which was signed 10 years before Marner's under a completely different CBA, had a cap percentage difference of 11.09% vs 13.37% and was only superficially similar based on PPG averages.

The fact that you're not able to produce a high volume of suitable comparisons for the Marner contract, aka "sample size," really only says one thing. That his contract was unprecedented.

Unprecedented. And dramatic. And an overpayment.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I've been reading the Brian Burke autography over the holidays and one of the interesting points he made re: his tenure with the Leafs. One of the reasons why he believes he was fired is because he was a real advocate against circumvention, whether it was very long contracts with declining cap hits that you'd see with a Luongo or Keith contract. He cited examples of how he didn't offer Brad Richards a very competitive offer when he hit free agency and signed with the Rangers.

By extension, it seemed like some board members at MLSE didn't like the fact that he didn't use the full might of the organization financially, and when you look at the full body of work under the Shanaplan, it seems like the organization has made a massive change in that department. The Robidas Island program to clear the decks, the free agent hunting for Stamkos and Tavares. The big contracts to the Big 3.

Of course at the time of the signings nobody knew Covid-19 was on the horizon, so whatever top heavy condition the Leafs created for themselves would be alleviated with the ever increasing cap. All they had to do was get past the Marleau deal, shuffle some things around and they would be okay in the medium run.

Things obviously didn't work out that way, but to their credit they were able to clear out the Kapanen and Johnsson deals which created some unexpected flexibility. Now with a depressed financial outlook, a stagnant cap, I could see many years of undervalued free agents, which will be another way the Leafs can remain competitive.

interesting. How much of the book focuses on the leaf years?

 

[Seras]

He should not have signed them, he should have called their brothers and offered them much less money, or they could have simply asked the other Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to sign lesser deals saying that their body doubles are asking too much. Basically star players are everywhere and you should pay them minimal deals. Done and done.

 

[Stephen]

Unprecedented. And dramatic. And an overpayment.

Marner's comparables are clear as day. It's Rantanen and Aho.

-All three are 2015 draft picks.
-All three three walked into RFA status at the same time.
-Each one finished their ELC with a career high of 94, 87, 83 points and would be considered elite producers.

But because they both signed for lower, we need to go look at Patrick Kane. Whose post ELC deal is not even from the same CBA, and the cap percentage is much lower, and isn't even in the same universe from a dollar value.

 

[Stephen]

interesting. How much of the book focuses on the leaf years?

It's about 40 pages out of a 300 odd page book. It's not that detailed but goes into some of his issues with Ron Wilson, etc. Generally the book covers off the main blockbusters of each of his NHL stops and there are a few tidbits here and there.

 

[hamzarocks]

I think the deals while poor arent going to kill our team. The current team is a contender plain and simple in the North.

We have a great roster with a lot of promising pieces in the pipeline.

It took a while and lot of guys contributed to fixing the team (getting rid of the culture issue in 2015 wasnt easy for Shanny/Lou/Babcock to do) but right now we have the best shot at a cup with the most balanced team since 2004.

I would only look at an upgrade at 3C and 2RD if Holl is still there with Dermott not having taken his spot.

With no LTIR issues, we should be buyers this deadline and that will allow to address one or perhaps both of these issues (if they dont get fixed with kerfoot and holl playing better than this past year)

The time to debate and worry contracts was in the past. Now is the time to enjoy the season to come

 

[LeafsNation75]

I've been reading the Brian Burke autography over the holidays and one of the interesting points he made re: his tenure with the Leafs. One of the reasons why he believes he was fired is because he was a real advocate against circumvention, whether it was very long contracts with declining cap hits that you'd see with a Luongo or Keith contract. He cited examples of how he didn't offer Brad Richards a very competitive offer when he hit free agency and signed with the Rangers.

By extension, it seemed like some board members at MLSE didn't like the fact that he didn't use the full might of the organization financially, and when you look at the full body of work under the Shanaplan, it seems like the organization has made a massive change in that department. The Robidas Island program to clear the decks, the free agent hunting for Stamkos and Tavares. The big contracts to the Big 3.

Of course at the time of the signings nobody knew Covid-19 was on the horizon, so whatever top heavy condition the Leafs created for themselves would be alleviated with the ever increasing cap. All they had to do was get past the Marleau deal, shuffle some things around and they would be okay in the medium run.

Things obviously didn't work out that way, but to their credit they were able to clear out the Kapanen and Johnsson deals which created some unexpected flexibility. Now with a depressed financial outlook, a stagnant cap, I could see many years of undervalued free agents, which will be another way the Leafs can remain competitive.

I remember in July 2011 when Brad Richards was the #1 UFA he offered him a 6 year contract with a fair amount of money, because he didn't believe in those long term contracts that were at least 8 years or more since there was no 7 or 8 year limits like we see today. So

 

[LeafsNation75]

I think the deals while poor arent going to kill our team. The current team is a contender plain and simple in the North.

We have a great roster with a lot of promising pieces in the pipeline.

It took a while and lot of guys contributed to fixing the team (getting rid of the culture issue in 2015 wasnt easy for Shanny/Lou/Babcock to do) but right now we have the best shot at a cup with the most balanced team since 2004.

I would only look at an upgrade at 3C and 2RD if Holl is still there with Dermott not having taken his spot.

With no LTIR issues, we should be buyers this deadline and that will allow to address one or perhaps both of these issues (if they dont get fixed with kerfoot and holl playing better than this past year)

The time to debate and worry contracts was in the past. Now is the time to enjoy the season to come

At least after the 2021-22 Season the $1.2 million retained in the Phil Kessel trade to Pittsburgh is coming off their salary cap.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No,
The proven 100 point players sign 100 point contacts.
The proven 90 point players sing 90 point contracts.
And so on.
when proven 70 point players sign 100 point contracts, it’s universally considered a bad contract.

Interesting. So according to you, Kane was a "proven 70 point player", and Marner was a "proven 90 point player", right? Clearly Marner deserved a much higher contract than Kane, right?

If you don't like the older comparison, Eichel was a "proven 50 point player" by your logic. Clearly Matthews and Marner have contracts that are UNPRECEDENTED and DRAMATIC underpayments, right?

 

[Stephen]

I remember in July 2011 when Brad Richards was the #1 UFA he offered him a 6 year contract with a fair amount of money, because he didn't believe in those long term contracts that were at least 8 years or more since there was no 7 or 8 year limits like we see today. So

Yep. Burkie offered $6 million at 6 years and Newport's response was "when's the real offer coming?"

 

[LeafsNation75]

Interesting. So according to you, Kane was a "proven 70 point player", and Marner was a "proven 90 point player", right? Clearly Marner deserved a much higher contract than Kane, right?

If you don't like the older comparison, Eichel was a "proven 50 point player" by your logic. Clearly Matthews and Marner have contracts that are UNPRECEDENTED and DRAMATIC underpayments, right?

I guess you will say one signed a bridge contract and Marner signed for 6 years, however why did Brayden Point agree to a 3 year $6.75 million AAV contract after he got 92 points in 79 games played during the 2018-19 Season, where as Marner got $10.893 million after getting 92 points in 82 games played the same year. Both were RFA's at the exact same time or is that not a good comparable which lives up to your standards?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yep. Burkie offered $6 million at 6 years and Newport's response was "when's the real offer coming?"

I realize that Richards got 9 years from the Rangers and they were his 1st choice for months because of his relationship with John Tortorella. However it's funny that $6 million x 6 years from Toronto was not good enough and he ends up signing for 9 years at $6,666,666 AAV.

 

[Stephen]

I realize that Richards got 9 years from the Rangers and they were his 1st choice for months because of his relationship with John Tortorella. However it's funny that $6 million x 6 years from Toronto was not good enough and he ends up signing for 9 years at $6,666,666 AAV.

He was smart to do it. Rangers had to buy out a lot of that money on the 9 year contract!

 

[LeafsNation75]

He was smart to do it. Rangers had to buy out a lot of that money on the 9 year contract!

I guess Burke also knew what he was doing by only offering him 6 years instead of 9 years.

 

[hamzarocks]

At least after the 2021-22 Season the $1.2 million retained in the Phil Kessel trade to Pittsburgh is coming off their salary cap.

Hope that covers a lot of Rielly's new deal. Hoping he signs at around 7.5 tops for 8 years. He is a leader and core piece hope that dubas and him can come together and get a deal done after this season going into his last year.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Hope that covers a lot of Rielly's new deal. Hoping he signs at around 7.5 tops for 8 years. He is a leader and core piece hope that dubas and him can come together and get a deal done after this season going into his last year.

I would hope that Rielly re-signs 1 year before he can become a UFA. The fact Kessel's $1.2 million is coming off their cap at the same time is a good coincidence.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The closest comparable you were able to cite for Mitch Marner's current contract earlier was Patrick Kane's post ELC deal, which was signed 10 years before Marner's under a completely different CBA, had a cap percentage difference of 11.09% vs 13.37% and was only superficially similar based on PPG averages.

The closest comparable I found for a high-end playmaking winger who was good right from the start was a high-end playmaking winger of similar age who was good right from the start, who had one of the more similar post-ELC contracts in cap hit percentage and term, and one of the closer production statistics and development paths. Not sure why you're choosing to represent that as an unusual choice, especially when you were previously unwilling to even commit to a comparable. I was willing to consider yours.

Comparables will never be 100% identical, but Kane is a good comparable, and one that many people have used for Marner. The separation between them is easy to see. Marner was a better player, and got an extra year of term, and his cap hit percentage is higher by a proper relative amount to account for this.

The fact that you're not able to produce a high volume of suitable comparisons for the Marner contract, aka "sample size," really only says one thing. That his contract was unprecedented.

High volume? How many players of Marner's quality do you think there have been in the entire cap era? Hint: It's not many. There's nothing "unprecedented" about Marner's contract. There are many players above him in contract value throughout the cap era. Including wingers. Including wingers who were worse than him. Multiple in fact.

Marner's comparables are clear as day. It's Rantanen and Aho.

-All three are 2015 draft picks.
-All three three walked into RFA status at the same time.
-Each one finished their ELC with a career high of 94, 87, 83 points and would be considered elite producers.

But because they both signed for lower, we need to go look at Patrick Kane.

Are you kidding me? Rantanen is literally one of the two first comparables I cited. Literally today. To you. Right here:

He fits in decently relative to most high-end post-ELC contracts. Kane and Rantanen are probably the best comparables, and Marner's contract makes perfect sense relative to theirs.

I did not choose Kane to suit any argument. It's literally one of the least favourable high-end post-ELC winger comparisons for Marner. The contract closest in actual value is Vanek's, but I figured that was an unfair comparison, as it represented Marner so favourably.

Aho and Rantanen contracts aren't even all that different from Kane's, so i don't know what you mean by "because they both signed for lower".

If you'd like to look at Rantanen/Aho, let's look at Rantanen/Aho...

At time of signing their post ELC contracts, their P/GP was:

Marner: 0.93
Rantanen: 0.87
Aho: 0.81

And if we were to remove the noise of EN points, which Aho and Rantanen actually had a considerable amount of, we'd end up with:

Marner: 0.90
Rantanen: 0.82
Aho: 0.76

And their primary points/GP...

Marner: 0.71
Rantanen: 0.64
Aho: 0.61

And without EN...

Marner: 0.68
Rantanen: 0.59
Aho: 0.56

And when we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production...

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Aho: 2.17
Rantanen: 2.13

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.05
Aho: 1.70
Rantanen: 1.58

ES Goals/60

Aho: 0.99
Marner: 0.86
Rantanen: 0.78

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Rantanen: 5.78
Aho: 5.37

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Rantanen: 4.15
Aho: 3.48

PP Goals/60

Rantanen: 2.37
Aho: 1.60
Marner: 1.56

Marner clearly the best player of the three, with Rantanen and Aho being fairly similar, and comparable with Kane. Their contracts reflect that.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The closest comparable I found for a high-end playmaking winger who was good right from the start was a high-end playmaking winger of similar age who was good right from the start, who had one of the more similar post-ELC contracts in cap hit percentage and term, and one of the closer production statistics and development paths. Not sure why you're choosing to represent that as an unusual choice, especially when you were previously unwilling to even commit to a comparable. I was willing to consider yours.

Comparables will never be 100% identical, but Kane is a good comparable, and one that many people have used for Marner. The separation between them is easy to see. Marner was a better player, and got an extra year of term, and his cap hit percentage is higher by a proper relative amount to account for this.

High volume? How many players of Marner's quality do you think there have been in the entire cap era? Hint: It's not many. There's nothing "unprecedented" about Marner's contract. There are many players above him in contract value throughout the cap era. Including wingers. Including wingers who were worse than him. Multiple in fact.

Are you kidding me? Rantanen is literally one of the two first comparables I cited. Literally today. To you. Right here:

I did not choose Kane to suit any argument. It's literally one of the least favourable high-end post-ELC winger comparisons for Marner. The contract closest in actual value is Vanek's, but I figured that was an unfair comparison, as it represented Marner so favourably.

Aho and Rantanen contracts aren't even all that different from Kane's, so i don't know what you mean by "because they both signed for lower".

If you'd like to look at Rantanen/Aho, let's look at Rantanen/Aho...

At time of signing their post ELC contracts, their P/GP was:

Marner: 0.93
Rantanen: 0.87
Aho: 0.81

And if we were to remove the noise of EN points, which Aho and Rantanen actually had a considerable amount of, we'd end up with:

Marner: 0.90
Rantanen: 0.82
Aho: 0.76

And their primary points/GP...

Marner: 0.71
Rantanen: 0.64
Aho: 0.61

And without EN...

Marner: 0.68
Rantanen: 0.59
Aho: 0.56

And when we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production...

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Aho: 2.17
Rantanen: 2.13

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.05
Aho: 1.70
Rantanen: 1.58

ES Goals/60

Aho: 0.99
Marner: 0.86
Rantanen: 0.78

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Rantanen: 5.78
Aho: 5.37

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Rantanen: 4.15
Aho: 3.48

PP Goals/60

Rantanen: 2.37
Aho: 1.60
Marner: 1.56

Marner clearly the best player of the three, with Rantanen and Aho being fairly similar, and comparable with Kane. Their contracts reflect that.

When you posted the Matthews comparable stats: 5 points stats, 3 goals stats.

When you posted the Marner comparable stats: (lol) 8 point stats, 2 goal stats.

The fact that you cling only to the stats that prove your agenda and leaf player strengths is on full display here.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think the deals while poor arent going to kill our team. The current team is a contender plain and simple in the North.

We have a great roster with a lot of promising pieces in the pipeline.

It took a while and lot of guys contributed to fixing the team (getting rid of the culture issue in 2015 wasnt easy for Shanny/Lou/Babcock to do) but right now we have the best shot at a cup with the most balanced team since 2004.

I would only look at an upgrade at 3C and 2RD if Holl is still there with Dermott not having taken his spot.

With no LTIR issues, we should be buyers this deadline and that will allow to address one or perhaps both of these issues (if they dont get fixed with kerfoot and holl playing better than this past year)

The time to debate and worry contracts was in the past. Now is the time to enjoy the season to come

All true and the roster is indeed looking good. There is a nagging thought in the back of my mind asking if there something wrong with our core's DNA considering that the odds of us losing the last 4 PO series is about 10 to 1 against. Hopefully that thought will fade when the puck drops and I can fully enjoy what will unfold.

We better do something good this season though cause if we go out in the 1st round again it will be very hard to make excuses. We have uncertainty in goal coming up next season as it is and ... eh, I'll just leave it at that.

This roster is stacked. Our young stars are in their prime. The holes in the roster look like they should be filled. No more excuses.

This could be the year.


.

 

[X66]

I love Matthews but realistically, he's not in the same league as McDavid who's been the consensus #1 player in the world ever since he picked up all the hardware mentioned earlier. I mean sure there are people who will dig until they find some fancy stat to point to to argue otherwise but how those people expect to be taken seriously is beyond me.

McDavid IMO is the best player in the league, but he leaves a lot to be desired defensively.

 

[The Podium]

Marner's comparables are clear as day. It's Rantanen and Aho.

-All three are 2015 draft picks.
-All three three walked into RFA status at the same time.
-Each one finished their ELC with a career high of 94, 87, 83 points and would be considered elite producers.

But because they both signed for lower, we need to go look at Patrick Kane. Whose post ELC deal is not even from the same CBA, and the cap percentage is much lower, and isn't even in the same universe from a dollar value.

Considering Rantanen signed after Marner and Aho was actually an OS, that likely is why they arent looked at as Marner's comparable.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

The closest comparable you were able to cite for Mitch Marner's current contract earlier was Patrick Kane's post ELC deal, which was signed 10 years before Marner's under a completely different CBA, had a cap percentage difference of 11.09% vs 13.37% and was only superficially similar based on PPG averages.

The fact that you're not able to produce a high volume of suitable comparisons for the Marner contract, aka "sample size," really only says one thing. That his contract was unprecedented.

Wasn't his ELC performance relatively unprecedented? How many 90+ point ELC wingers can you name?

 

[ToneDog]

Considering both signed after Marner, and Aho was actualy an OS, that likely is why they arent looked at as Marner's comparable.

Once Aho signed, Dubas should have negotiated from that number. Unfortunately he already had offered the JT deal before July 1st and there was no way back for him IMO. It is a failure if Mitch does not become a consistant 95+ point player. It would not have been as bad if you did not have JT making similar money who likely will not reach or outperform his contract.

As far as I know Sakic did not bend signing Ranta after Mitch had signed.