Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[Dekes For Days]

If Matthews was using Jack Eichel as a comparable during his contract talks he would have a better case.

Then do that. If you're getting caught up in the trophies, and can't look past them, I don't know why you're using McDavid as a comparable in the first place.

So did he deserve 8 years and $10 million at that time?

It's actually quite funny, because there's less justification for Buffalo giving that contract than the Leafs giving Matthews and Marner their contracts. But in the end, it doesn't really matter. They bet on their superstar, and that's the best thing you can bet on. Buffalo couldn't afford to lose him. These complaints about elite young RFA contracts are one of the most pointless complaints one can have, as even "overpaid" superstars are generally undervalued on the NHL pay scale relative to their actual impact through their primes. The most important thing is having them, and keeping them.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

We expect more from the team now because we are given more.
Constantly told how great Marner/Nylander/Dubas/etc/etc are.

It’s natural to expect more. Do you expect playoff wins with Connolly/Komisarek as your top guys? Hardly.

With increased praise comes increased expectations.

You can’t tell me how great Superman is and then he always shows up late to save people.

If Superman shows up late but still saves everyone before they die, is he truly late?

 

[ToneDog]

His agent didn't, and he wasn't paid as if he was.

Little did they know that he actually is, and that total points are a dumb way to evaluate players, which is why it's hilarious that a team with two "MVP"s can't make the playoffs.

So you are saying the Oilers did not make the playoffs because they lost in the play-ins ? But Dekes says we made the playoffs even though we lost in the play-ins with 3 players making 8 figures.

 

[ACC1224]

So you are saying the Oilers did not make the playoffs because they lost in the play-ins ? But Dekes says we made the playoffs even though we lost in the play-ins with 3 players making 8 figures.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If Superman shows up late but still saves everyone before they die, is he truly late?

Superman can turn back time, so he's never late.

 

[ToneDog]

Not sure about the rest of you but I take McDavid and Drai over any 3 of our 4 forwards taking up 1/2 our cap.

 

[Gary Nylund]

His agent didn't, and he wasn't paid as if he was.

Little did they know that he actually is, and that total points are a dumb way to evaluate players, which is why it's hilarious that a team with two "MVP"s can't make the playoffs.

Are you saying Matthews is as good as McDavid?

 

[CanadasTeam]

Are you saying Matthews is as good as McDavid?

Lol, I hope he did not mean that.

I'm a huge Matthews fan but I'd probably be more thrilled if the Leafs had Nathan MacKinnon instead.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Lol, I hope he did not mean that.

I'm a huge Matthews fan but I'd probably be more thrilled if the Leafs had Nathan MacKinnon instead.

It seems clear that's what he's implying. That's pretty far out there though so that's why I'm asking. Maybe he'll backtrack or spin away, we'll see I guess.

MacKinnon is phenomenal, wouldn't want to have to choose between those two. I suspect most objective people would take MacKinnon at this point, hopefully a year from now things will be different.

 

[Leaf Fans]

If Superman shows up late but still saves everyone before they die, is he truly late?

Superman has the power to reverse time by flying counterclockwise around the earth. So yeah, he wouldn't be late. He did save both Lois Lane and stop California from falling into the sea.

 

[The Podium]

By the numbers: The best value contract on every NHL team
By the numbers: The best value contract on every NHL team

Looks at GSVA/82 which is essentially predicts the amount of wins a player will contribute per 82 when accounting for the players all around contributions (offense, defense, etc.)

It then compares that to xWin, or the amount of wins a player is expected to contribute at their cap hit.

For the Toronto last season the top 3 were:

1. Hyman
2. Mikheyev
3. Matthews

Considering the first 2 were obvious steals, the model clearly works.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Superman has the power to reverse time by flying counterclockwise around the earth. So yeah, he wouldn't be late. He did save both Lois Lane and stop California from falling into the sea.

Yeah Superman can pretty much do anything. As long as he doesn't get on Batman's bad side that is.

 

[Menzinger]

His agent didn't, and he wasn't paid as if he was.

Little did they know that he actually is, and that total points are a dumb way to evaluate players, which is why it's hilarious that a team with two "MVP"s can't make the playoffs.

I think its fair to say Matthews signed to the higher end of his conparables (though still perfectly in the range of historical post elc deals for comparative players).

But I've always been a bit perplexed by this McDavid obsession. McDavid got higher cap%, higher aav (signed when thr league had a lower cap) and makes more total dollars over his first 5 years on the deal.

If Matthews signs say a 13 mil x 8 year extension at the first opportunity in a few years is anyone really going to care/remember about his first rfa deal? I doubt it.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Then do that. If you're getting caught up in the trophies, and can't look past them, I don't know why you're using McDavid as a comparable in the first place.

You were the one who originally started comparing Matthews contract with McDavid.

I'm just saying when you compare Matthews winning the Calder Trophy in 2017 to McDavid winning the Hart Trophy, Art Ross, and Ted Lindsay Award in 2017, plus McDavid winning the Art Ross and Ted Lindsay Award again in 2018, it's one reason why you should not compare Matthews to McDavid.

Finally here is some of your previous replies comparing Matthews to McDavid, so that's why you shouldn't ask why am I comparing them in the first place.

Based on Matthews' pre-signing period relative to McDavid's and Eichel's pre-signing periods, Matthews deserved a contract very close to McDavid. McDavid was a better point producer. Matthews was a better primary point and goal producer. Eichel wasn't remotely close to either in anything. Also, McDavid and Eichel under an 81.5m cap would be 10.85m and 13.6m (14.4m negotiated), not 10m and 12.5m.

Nobody signs contracts based on how many rounds their team won, especially as a teenager. That's a ridiculous expectation of Dubas.

Yes, I know you like pointing to exclusively raw points, and ignore literally everything else... If we were going exclusively by raw points, McDavid would have one of the best post-ELC contracts in the entire cap era, and would have even before taking one of the biggest discounts in the history of the cap era, and thus it would be illogical to claim a contract is bad because it doesn't live up to that standard.

First off, your numbers are wrong. At time of signing their post ELC contracts, their P/GP was:

McDavid: 1.17
Matthews: 0.98
Eichel: 0.80

And Matthews only moves closer to McDavid when we remove EN points. Now, of course, contracts are not only determined by looking at some raw point number and matching it to a corresponding contract amount. There would be no negotiation if this was the case, and many contracts throughout the history of the cap era wouldn't make sense. We get a much clearer picture and understanding when more is considered.

Let's look at some other numbers for these players at time of signing...

Primary Points/GP

Matthews: 0.83
McDavid: 0.83
Eichel: 0.63

Goals/GP

Matthews: 0.53
McDavid: 0.36
Eichel: 0.34

And when we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production, just how dominant Matthews was becomes even clearer...

ES Points/60

McDavid: 3.00
Matthews: 2.80
Eichel: 1.78

ES Primary Points/60

Matthews: 2.42
McDavid: 2.34
Eichel: 1.44

ES Goals/60

Matthews: 1.61
McDavid: 1.11
Eichel: 0.79

PP Points/60

Matthews: 6.47
McDavid: 6.44
Eichel: 6.30

PP Primary Points/60

Matthews: 5.06
Eichel: 4.76
McDavid: 3.61

PP Goals/60

Matthews: 2.95
Eichel: 2.52
McDavid: 0.94

McDavid was the better point producer. Matthews was the better primary point and goal producer. Eichel was far behind both of them. Their contracts reflect that.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I think its fair to say Matthews signed to the higher end of his conparables (though still perfectly in the range of historical post elc deals for comparative players).

But I've always been a bit perplexed by this McDavid obsession. McDavid got higher cap%, higher aav (signed when thr league had a lower cap) and makes more total dollars over his first 5 years on the deal.

If Matthews signs say a 13 mil x 8 year extension at the first opportunity in a few years is anyone really going to care/remember about hist first rs deal? I doubt it.

I think this McDavid obsession goes back to what Bob McKenzie said when Matthews contract was made official.

He said for Matthews to sign a 8 year contract it would need to come in north of McDavid's $12.5 million AAV by $1 million or more.

 

[nsleaf]

If Superman shows up late but still saves everyone before they die, is he truly late?

Of course not, he's just being a dick.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You were the one who originally started comparing Matthews contract with McDavid.

Both of the posts you quoted were replies to an already ongoing discussion brought up by others, and I discussed him relative to McDavid and Eichel, and even said they weren't the most straightforward comparables for Matthews. I've explained how Matthews fits relative to McDavid and Eichel, and as I've shown, his contract is perfectly fine compared to theirs, but you can't seem to look beyond the trophies to understand what I am saying, and the proper methods of contract valuation. Thus, I am suggesting that you utilize a different comparable than McDavid where trophies (and the unique circumstances around McDavid's contract) aren't a factor.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Both of the posts you quoted were replies to an already ongoing discussion brought up by others, and I discussed him relative to McDavid and Eichel, and even said they weren't the most straightforward comparables for Matthews. I've explained how Matthews fits relative to McDavid and Eichel, and as I've shown, his contract is perfectly fine compared to theirs, but you can't seem to look beyond the trophies to understand what I am saying, and the proper methods of contract valuation. Thus, I am suggesting that you utilize a different comparable than McDavid where trophies (and the unique circumstances around McDavid's contract) aren't a factor.

Except most people will look at McDavid's 1 Hart Trophy, 2 Art Ross Trophy's and 2 Ted Lindsay Awards compared to the 1 Calder Trophy that Matthews has won and say McDavid was deserving of his contract. If Matthews wanted to make $11.634 million that's fine, it just should have happened on a 8 year contract instead of a 5 year contract. I said it before and I will say it again Matthews making that amount of money and was signed for 8 years, he would have been a better comparable to the 8 years and $10 million AAV Jack Eichel got from Buffalo.

Also you talk about circumstances please remember these facts.

When McDavid won the Hart Trophy, Art Ross, and Ted Lindsay in 2017 it was on July 1, 2017 when he became eligible to sign a contract extension and that's why it happened on July 5, 2017.

Matthews was not eligible to sign his contract extension until July 1, 2018. So call it bad timing but McDavid wining a second Art Ross and second Ted Lindsay Award in 2018 was more reason for Matthews to want a contract similar to what McDavid got.

 

[Leaf Fans]

So you are saying the Oilers did not make the playoffs because they lost in the play-ins ? But Dekes says we made the playoffs even though we lost in the play-ins with 3 players making 8 figures.

There are different ideas Dekes and Zeke are two different people. There names might rhyme but there are a a lot of people that say the Leafs made the playoffs and a lot that say they didn't. The people that determine whether a team has made the playoff or not is the NHL
"Teams participating in a best-of-five series during the Stanley Cup Qualifiers are considered to have made the postseason and participated in a postseason series." NHL, NHLPA ratify four-year CBA extension, Return to Play Plan So the case should not be at issue: both Edmonton and Toronto ( and the others) made the playoffs.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If Matthews wanted to make $11.634 million that's fine, it just should have happened on a 8 year contract instead of a 5 year contract.

No, that amount on an 8 year contract would have been a significant undervaluing of Matthews. Matthews deserved what he got on a 5 year contract, as I've shown. Contract valuation does not work the way you think it works. You're way off in a lot of ways. I've tried to help you learn and understand, but you don't seem to be listening.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I think this McDavid obsession goes back to what Bob McKenzie said when Matthews contract was made official.

He said for Matthews to sign a 8 year contract it would need to come in north of McDavid's $12.5 million AAV by $1 million or more.

So Matthews is better than McDavid and deserved a higher cap percentage at time of signing?

That is OUTRAGEOUS. not a single person in the world would trade McDavid for Matthews straight up with both under the same contract.

We deserve the reputation we have.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No, that amount on an 8 year contract would have been a significant undervaluing of Matthews. Matthews deserved what he got on a 5 year contract, as I've shown. Contract valuation does not work the way you think it works. You're way off in a lot of ways. I've tried to help you learn and understand, but you don't seem to be listening.

When I look at pretty much any other universally considered fair contract, their point totals ALWAYS line up with their comparables point totals.

Only with the leafs players are they considerably lower, resulting in stat mined insanity to rationalize them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So the case should not be at issue: both Edmonton and Toronto ( and the others) made the playoffs.

Yep. Though there is even more definitive proof, specifically for the word "playoffs". From the official NHL page for all of the historical playoff formats (NHL Records):

2019-20: The NHL announces on May 26, 2020, the conclusion of the 2019-20 regular season as well as a modified competitive playoff format that features 24 teams

The 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin with the 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifiers

And Pittsburgh's playoff streak is still listed as active.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When I look at pretty much any other universally considered fair contract, their point totals ALWAYS line up with their comparables point totals.

That's just flat out not true. Historically, contracts do not align properly when nothing other than raw points is considered.

 

[Stephen]

I've been reading the Brian Burke autography over the holidays and one of the interesting points he made re: his tenure with the Leafs. One of the reasons why he believes he was fired is because he was a real advocate against circumvention, whether it was very long contracts with declining cap hits that you'd see with a Luongo or Keith contract. He cited examples of how he didn't offer Brad Richards a very competitive offer when he hit free agency and signed with the Rangers.

By extension, it seemed like some board members at MLSE didn't like the fact that he didn't use the full might of the organization financially, and when you look at the full body of work under the Shanaplan, it seems like the organization has made a massive change in that department. The Robidas Island program to clear the decks, the free agent hunting for Stamkos and Tavares. The big contracts to the Big 3.

Of course at the time of the signings nobody knew Covid-19 was on the horizon, so whatever top heavy condition the Leafs created for themselves would be alleviated with the ever increasing cap. All they had to do was get past the Marleau deal, shuffle some things around and they would be okay in the medium run.

Things obviously didn't work out that way, but to their credit they were able to clear out the Kapanen and Johnsson deals which created some unexpected flexibility. Now with a depressed financial outlook, a stagnant cap, I could see many years of undervalued free agents, which will be another way the Leafs can remain competitive.