Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[Stephen]

sure. Tampa is a first class organization. They have drafted incredibly well, made proper trades, went through their battles and came out on top. They absolutely are a model organization.

but their star cap hits are 3% lower due to tax breaks.

if I was a player I would totally want to play there.

You could have just stopped after the first paragraph. There's no real need to qualify their successes as some unique market trait. Because the Leafs have their own unique market traits, and that is a bank account big enough to underwrite the entire Burke Nonis era.

We have some big advantages and some disadvantages, some unique situations that benefit us and some that don't. Now let's be a first class organization, draft incredibly well, win our trades, find cap efficiencies and win a Stanley Cup.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

It was 750k per year off of the negotiated contract.

Smelled like a PR move.

 

[Legion34]

You could have just stopped after the first paragraph. There's no real need to qualify their successes as some unique market trait. Because the Leafs have their own unique market traits, and that is a bank account big enough to underwrite the entire Burke Nonis era.

We have some big advantages and some disadvantages, some unique situations that benefit us and some that don't. Now let's be a first class organization, draft incredibly well, win our trades, find cap efficiencies and win a Stanley Cup.

but it clearly is. Because they clearly take 3% under market rate. Which is exactly why they got those rates?

thete are many great cities/big markets/winners that don’t get those breaks.

LA/NY/CHI. They have unique advantages. They actually won cups abs don’t get breaks.

Tampa/nash/Dallas did. Tampa leveraged with full NTC and high SB.

that’s the point. The point is comparing Toronto contracts to Tampa contracts is not the same.

because of the tax breaks. Tampa doesn’t get College Fa like NYR. They get players to sign for less

 

[Dekes For Days]

That said, I don't find it productive to go out of my way to celebrate the Matthews contract as some great steal, or why someone like Dekes needs to go out of their way to post rationalize the hell out of everything.

I didn't say that Matthews' contract is "some great steal" (we were actually talking about McDavid...), and I'm not post-rationalizing anything. I corrected your incorrect claims about how contract valuation works. Post-ELC contracts use post-ELC comparables, and it's more complicated than pointing to their most recent raw point total.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Tampa star players take 11%-12% of the cap. Standard star players take 14-15%.

It works out to the exact same pay. It’s clearly the taxes. The math works out to perfectly to be a coincidence

Then it’s literally impossible to win at such an outrageous financial disadvantage.

Why are any of us even here on the leaf board? Our team is doomed. Our direct competition can sign their players 14-15% lower than us in a capped league.

This is futile, and we’re all masochists.

or maybe it’s just bullshit excuses for a horrible rookie gm who dramatically overpaid all his rfa’s.

I also love... Tampa players sign for less “it’s just the taxes”.

mcDavid signs for less in Canada “He’s just a nice guy”.

It’s bullshit. All I know is our players don’t sign for less. I’m sick of the excuses.

 

[saffronleaf]

Time to take away Dubas' toys. Namely the calculators and spreadsheets.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Matthews is a great player and I'm happy to have him as a Leaf. He's only going to get better and it's going to be fun to see where he leads the team. I think his cap hit is expensive but I'm okay with paying it.

That said, I don't find it productive to go out of my way to celebrate the Matthews contract as some great steal, or why someone like Dekes needs to go out of their way to post rationalize the hell out of everything. God forbid we admit that a Stanley Cup winning franchise might be doing something a little better than the Toronto Maple Leafs or some players might choose a lower cap hit because they pay less state taxes.

Based on Matthews elc, Matthews fit almost directly in between Eichel's contract and McDavid's. So somewhere in between 10 mil and 12.5 mil at EIGHT years (accounting for little more in cap inflation). To take that precise middle ground and then make it FIVE years is highway robbery.

It was a very VERY big problem appointing a rookie who self-confessed is "learning as he goes" as our gm at such a pivitol moment in franchise history.

 

[zeke]

why is it only Tampa players that give this discount and not any other players on teams without any state tax if it's only because of the tax ?

Why is it that Tampa has to put players like Johnson on waivers?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Based on Matthews elc, Matthews fit almost directly in between Eichel's contract and McDavid's. So somewhere in between 10 mil and 12.5 mil at EIGHT years.

Based on Matthews' pre-signing period relative to McDavid's and Eichel's pre-signing periods, Matthews deserved a contract very close to McDavid. McDavid was a better point producer. Matthews was a better primary point and goal producer. Eichel wasn't remotely close to either in anything. Also, McDavid and Eichel under an 81.5m cap would be 10.85m and 13.6m (14.4m negotiated), not 10m and 12.5m.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Based on Matthews' pre-signing period relative to McDavid's and Eichel's pre-signing periods, Matthews deserved a contract very close to McDavid. McDavid was a better point producer. Matthews was a better primary point and goal producer. Eichel wasn't remotely close to either in anything. Also, McDavid and Eichel under an 81.5m cap would be 10.85m and 13.6m (14.4m negotiated), not 10m and 12.5m.

After first 2 seasons (when Eichel and McDavid signed their contracts): Eichel 0.8ppg McDavid 1.17 ppg Matthews 0.92 ppg. Like I said, Matthews fit in somewhere right in the middle between the two.

Matthews signed half way through his 3rd year. Looking at that year (which you're going to insist we should), and look at his comparables, Matthews (1.1 ppg) still fit in very neatly right between Eichel (.96 ppg) and McDavid (1.3 ppg).

Now, I'm not going to look at goals because it was SCREAMED at me thousands of times during the Marner and Nylander negotiations that "goals don't matter" and "it's all about points". So I'm going to DEMAND consistency on that regarding Matthews.

If you play the goal game when looking at Matthews and his comparables, I'll do the same with Marner when looking at HIS comparables. And that won't go well for you.

 

[ToneDog]

After first 2 seasons (when Eichel and McDavid signed their contracts): Eichel 0.8ppg McDavid 1.17 ppg Matthews 0.92 ppg. Like I said, Matthews fit in somewhere right in the middle between the two.

Matthews signed half way through his 3rd year. Looking at that year (which you're going to insist we should), and look at his comparables, Matthews (1.1 ppg) still fit in very neatly right between Eichel (.96 ppg) and McDavid (1.3 ppg).

Now, I'm not going to look at goals because it was SCREAMED at me thousands of times during the Marner and Nylander negotiations that "goals don't matter" and "it's all about points". So I'm going to DEMAND consistency on that regarding Matthews.

If you play the goal game when looking at Matthews and his comparables, I'll do the same with Marner when looking at HIS comparables. And that won't go well for you.

Unfortunately for the Leafs, it seems Dubas must have negotiated based on their strengths. What he did not factor into negotiations was, "WTF have you won to date?". Add to the fact that he did not sign any for the max term, and it is a clear failure. In hindsight if he had bridged any of the 3, COVID might have taken a bite out of the AAV(s).

 

[Dekes For Days]

What he did not factor into negotiations was, "WTF have you won to date?"

Nobody signs contracts based on how many rounds their team won, especially as a teenager. That's a ridiculous expectation of Dubas.

After first 2 seasons (when Eichel and McDavid signed their contracts): Eichel 0.8ppg McDavid 1.17 ppg Matthews 0.92 ppg. Like I said, Matthews fit in somewhere right in the middle between the two.

Yes, I know you like pointing to exclusively raw points, and ignore literally everything else... If we were going exclusively by raw points, McDavid would have one of the best post-ELC contracts in the entire cap era, and would have even before taking one of the biggest discounts in the history of the cap era, and thus it would be illogical to claim a contract is bad because it doesn't live up to that standard.

First off, your numbers are wrong. At time of signing their post ELC contracts, their P/GP was:

McDavid: 1.17
Matthews: 0.98
Eichel: 0.80

And Matthews only moves closer to McDavid when we remove EN points. Now, of course, contracts are not only determined by looking at some raw point number and matching it to a corresponding contract amount. There would be no negotiation if this was the case, and many contracts throughout the history of the cap era wouldn't make sense. We get a much clearer picture and understanding when more is considered.

Let's look at some other numbers for these players at time of signing...

Primary Points/GP

Matthews: 0.83
McDavid: 0.83
Eichel: 0.63

Goals/GP

Matthews: 0.53
McDavid: 0.36
Eichel: 0.34

And when we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production, just how dominant Matthews was becomes even clearer...

ES Points/60

McDavid: 3.00
Matthews: 2.80
Eichel: 1.78

ES Primary Points/60

Matthews: 2.42
McDavid: 2.34
Eichel: 1.44

ES Goals/60

Matthews: 1.61
McDavid: 1.11
Eichel: 0.79

PP Points/60

Matthews: 6.47
McDavid: 6.44
Eichel: 6.30

PP Primary Points/60

Matthews: 5.06
Eichel: 4.76
McDavid: 3.61

PP Goals/60

Matthews: 2.95
Eichel: 2.52
McDavid: 0.94

McDavid was the better point producer. Matthews was the better primary point and goal producer. Eichel was far behind both of them. Their contracts reflect that.

 

[zeke]

A reminder re: our disastrous year last year:


Overall

#13 Pts%
#11 Rgpts%
#10 EVxgf%
#8 ALLxgf%
#21 SV%

Under Keefe

#8 Pts%
#4 Rgpts%
#4 EVxgf%
#3 ALLxgf%
#20 SV%


All with what ManGamesLost.com calculated was the 3rd worst injury situation in the league.

That was our horrible year last year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

A reminder re: our disastrous year last year:


Overall

#13 Pts%
#11 Rgpts%
#10 EVxgf%
#8 ALLxgf%
#21 SV%

Under Keefe

#8 Pts%
#4 Rgpts%
#4 EVxgf%
#3 ALLxgf%
#20 SV%


All with what ManGamesLost.com calculated was the 3rd worst injury situation in the league.

That was our horrible year last year.

Don't forget the playoffs which is what really matters. We were almost 100% healthy, we were favoured to beat CLB so we no longer had the excuse that we had the 3 previous years and we lost, again.

It was horrible indeed and nothing short of playoff success will wash away the bad taste of that embarrassing failure.

 

[ACC1224]

Don't forget the playoffs which is what really matters. We were almost 100% healthy, we were favoured to beat CLB so we no longer had the excuse that we had the 3 previous years and we lost, again.

It was horrible indeed and nothing short of playoff success will wash away the bad taste of that embarrassing failure.

Playoffs? Hopefully this year.

 

[zeke]

Don't forget the playoffs which is what really matters. We were almost 100% healthy, we were favoured to beat CLB so we no longer had the excuse that we had the 3 previous years and we lost, again.

It was horrible indeed and nothing short of playoff success will wash away the bad taste of that embarrassing failure.

The Leafs outplayed CBJ nicely in that series.

Our failure to win it was either because our shooters choked or their goalie was out of his head or due to just plain bad luck, and your level of misery over those 5 bubble games after months off depends on which one of those reasons you buy most as the real reason.

 

[rumman]

The Leafs outplayed CBJ nicely in that series.

Our failure to win it was either because our shooters choked or their goalie was out of his head or due to just plain bad luck, and your level of misery over those 5 bubble games after months off depends on which one of those reasons you buy most as the real reason.

 

[zeke]

View attachment 382569

Eh. Beating the coyotes or panthers in a play in and then losing next round wouldn't have made us any happier, believe me.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The Leafs outplayed CBJ nicely in that series.

Our failure to win it was either because our shooters choked or their goalie was out of his head or due to just plain bad luck, and your level of misery over those 5 bubble games after months off depends on which one of those reasons you buy most as the real reason.

I mostly agree with this. We lost due to a combo of factors, part of it was our shooters failing and I'm tired of hearing how it was just their goalies.

Level of misery is also due to a combo of factors. One playoff loss is nothing. Losing for 4 years straight is another and when you've been watching these guys for over 50 years like I have, that factors in as well. Our failures are mounting and are becoming somewhat legendary.

 

[zeke]

I mostly agree with this. We lost due to a combo of factors, part of it was our shooters failing and I'm tired of hearing how it was just their goalies.

Level of misery is also due to a combo of factors. One playoff loss is nothing. Losing for 4 years straight is another and when you've been watching these guys for over 50 years like I have, that factors in as well. Our failures are mounting and are becoming somewhat legendary.

Funny how being a no-brainer playoffs team now suddenly feels worse than when we missed for a decade.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Funny how being a no-brainer playoffs team now suddenly feels worse than when we missed for a decade.

Being a no-brainer playoff team doesn't feel bad at all. Losing in the 1st round 4 times in a row though, that's a different story. There isn't one team in the NHL that has gone longer than us since winning a playoff series, yeah that feels bad to put it mildly.

 

[rumman]

Being a no-brainer playoff team doesn't feel bad at all. Losing in the 1st round 4 times in a row though, that's a different story. There isn't one team in the NHL that has gone longer than us since winning a playoff series, yeah that feels bad to put it mildly.

perspective..............

 

[zeke]

Being a no-brainer playoff team doesn't feel bad at all. Losing in the 1st round 4 times in a row though, that's a different story.

but you feel worse now about the team that is a no-brainer team than you did about the team that missed for a decade.

its funny how that works.

and to be honest, I don't think winning a round or three over that time would make anyone any more satisfied.

 

[Gary Nylund]

but you feel worse now about the team that is a no-brainer team than you did about the team that missed for a decade.

its funny how that works.

Um, what?

and to be honest, I don't think winning a round or three over that time would make anyone any more satisfied.

I'd be happier had we one at least one series over the last 4 years. Not even close to satisfied of course but somewhat happier for sure.

 

[Trapper]

Um, what?



I'd be happier had we one at least one series over the last 4 years. Not even close to satisfied of course but somewhat happier for sure.

We expect more from the team now because we are given more.
Constantly told how great Marner/Nylander/Dubas/etc/etc are.

It’s natural to expect more. Do you expect playoff wins with Connolly/Komisarek as your top guys? Hardly.

With increased praise comes increased expectations.

You can’t tell me how great Superman is and then he always shows up late to save people.