Kyle Dubas Discussion (continued) the 2021 edition

[Twine Tickler]

The experience added is almost all at the bottom of the lineup. I would argue it's the wrong kind of experience. Spezza was on the team last year. He knows what it takes to be a good pro. But hes fighting for 4th line minutes, so its hard to speak up and say anything.

I guess the plan is to shoehorn Thornton on the top line, but that will mean the top line will get sheltered minutes, because you certainly dont want those three guys against another teams top line.

i dont know, teams are not readily looking to rid themselves of "experienced" top 6/top pairing D. spezz's value was very tangible last season. remember he was the guy who stepped up and dropped the mitts at age 37 when the leafs were down 2 buzz in game 4. having more guys who want to win like him, regardless of where they slot in the lineup is value in my opinion. the only person that falls into the category of experienced and able to handle top minutes (that was available) was alex pietroangelo. which would have meant moving out other core pieces. I am not convinced that would make this team better personally

 

[The CyNick]

i dont know, teams are not readily looking to rid themselves of "experienced" top 6/top pairing D. spezz's value was very tangible last season. remember he was the guy who stepped up and dropped the mitts at age 37 when the leafs were down 2 buzz in game 4. having more guys who want to win like him, regardless of where they slot in the lineup is value in my opinion. the only person that falls into the category of experienced and able to handle top minutes (that was available) was alex pietroangelo. which would have meant moving out other core pieces. I am not convinced that would make this team better personally

To me it's not about one specific player. Its about the mindset. Dubas believes a core of Reilly, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Tavares will win a Cup. I believe you need to move out multiple of those guys to win.

To expand on the point look at how now both Dubas and Keefe have come out in the media and publicly stated they had talks with players about competing on the ice. Remember when Babs was here and he talked about becoming "good pros". That's the exact same thing. Babs was run out of town for talking like that. Going on two years later and these guys still have the same problem. So there's been no maturity. I don't recall anyone EVER questioning McDavids work ethic or compete level.

I am happy to be wrong on this one, but I dont think I will be.

 

[Twine Tickler]

To me it's not about one specific player. Its about the mindset. Dubas believes a core of Reilly, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Tavares will win a Cup. I believe you need to move out multiple of those guys to win.

To expand on the point look at how now both Dubas and Keefe have come out in the media and publicly stated they had talks with players about competing on the ice. Remember when Babs was here and he talked about becoming "good pros". That's the exact same thing. Babs was run out of town for talking like that. Going on two years later and these guys still have the same problem. So there's been no maturity. I don't recall anyone EVER questioning McDavids work ethic or compete level.

I am happy to be wrong on this one, but I dont think I will be.

You're not wrong when you talk about McDavid. But at the end of the day, there are only a handful of players on this planet that are willing to put in that level of work. talent aside. Young players often take time to understand how hard it is to win. I will admit, the group last year may have been the most frustrating leaf team I have ever watched. but to abandon ship right now I don't think is the right play. At the end of the day, I think you run this core to the end of the 2022-23 season (year prior to Matthews deal end) and if there hasn't been both of the following criteria met, trade the assets and start over;
1)a legitimate Stanley cup run (finals)
2)a Matthews contract extension

we should know in 2 years time if this group will have what it takes. At this time, this is the most talented leaf group ever assembled (in salary cap era). we are an inpatient fan base. Yes it really would be nice had they made a couple deep runs by now, but its cup or bust at the end of the day

 

[The CyNick]

You're not wrong when you talk about McDavid. But at the end of the day, there are only a handful of players on this planet that are willing to put in that level of work. talent aside. Young players often take time to understand how hard it is to win. I will admit, the group last year may have been the most frustrating leaf team I have ever watched. but to abandon ship right now I don't think is the right play. At the end of the day, I think you run this core to the end of the 2022-23 season (year prior to Matthews deal end) and if there hasn't been both of the following criteria met, trade the assets and start over;
1)a legitimate Stanley cup run (finals)
2)a Matthews contract extension

we should know in 2 years time if this group will have what it takes. At this time, this is the most talented leaf group ever assembled (in salary cap era). we are an inpatient fan base. Yes it really would be nice had they made a couple deep runs by now, but its cup or bust at the end of the day

It's not that easy though. Matthews is most likely walking after year 5. His people and quite frankly the league would prefer he is in a US market. Theres no doubt in my mind he will be in New York, Chicago, Vegas or LA after this deal. The fact that he only committed to 5 years speaks volumes. If he was really committed to the organization he would have taken less and committed the full 8 years. I don't think any team that he's not committed to long term will trade for him and those that are on his list will just wait for free agency and get him for free.

Tavares will continue to decline and is likely a Leaf until the end of the contract. Nobody will want to trade for him in say 5 years. His deal will look like an anchor, especially with a flat cap for the foreseeable future.

Marner value is up in the air. Depends what he does over the next few years.

If this core fails over the next five years, it'll likely be another five year segment of struggling unless some recent or upcoming draft picks turn into studs.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews is most likely walking after year 5.

That is not what is most likely at all.

The fact that he only committed to 5 years speaks volumes.

Matthews was open to all sorts of contract terms. His biggest priority was keeping the group together, which speaks much louder volumes. 5 years is an extremely common term for players of his quality.

Tavares will continue to decline

Tavares is not in decline. He is an elite player.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Fewest expected goals against/60 league ranking for all the Canadian teams since Keefe was hired:

8. Montreal
10. Toronto
16. Calgary
19. Edmontaon
25. Ottawa
28. Winnipeg
31. Vancouver

With the D turnover and #1 goalie gone, things could go south quick in Vancouver........

Whats the real numbers. Actual, reality numbers

 

[Dekes For Days]

Whats the real numbers. Actual, reality numbers

Those are the real numbers.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Those are the real numbers.

Expected calculations are the real ones eh. Can you do that for fishing for me.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Expected calculations are the real ones eh.

You're getting caught up in the name. They are real numbers based on real events, and it's a good way to measure defensive results, as you don't have the impacts of goaltending skewing it.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

You're getting caught up in the name. They are real numbers based on real events, and it's a good way to measure defensive results, as you don't have the impacts of goaltending skewing it.

Oh okay, don’t mind me man. I follow them zip zero. But do they work for fishing

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It's not that easy though. Matthews is most likely walking after year 5. His people and quite frankly the league would prefer he is in a US market. Theres no doubt in my mind he will be in New York, Chicago, Vegas or LA after this deal. The fact that he only committed to 5 years speaks volumes. If he was really committed to the organization he would have taken less and committed the full 8 years. I don't think any team that he's not committed to long term will trade for him and those that are on his list will just wait for free agency and get him for free.

Tavares will continue to decline and is likely a Leaf until the end of the contract. Nobody will want to trade for him in say 5 years. His deal will look like an anchor, especially with a flat cap for the foreseeable future.

Marner value is up in the air. Depends what he does over the next few years.

If this core fails over the next five years, it'll likely be another five year segment of struggling unless some recent or upcoming draft picks turn into studs.

McDavid's people and the league were perfectly fine hiding him up in Edmonton for his entire prime years? I don't know about that...

Matthews has proven to be all about the money though, so I think it's very possible he signs in a tax free state as a ufa.

I could also see him staying.

Long and short of it I guess is I have absolutely no idea what he' going to do. It's a wildcard situation.

 

[Twine Tickler]

It's not that easy though. Matthews is most likely walking after year 5. His people and quite frankly the league would prefer he is in a US market. Theres no doubt in my mind he will be in New York, Chicago, Vegas or LA after this deal. The fact that he only committed to 5 years speaks volumes. If he was really committed to the organization he would have taken less and committed the full 8 years. I don't think any team that he's not committed to long term will trade for him and those that are on his list will just wait for free agency and get him for free.

Tavares will continue to decline and is likely a Leaf until the end of the contract. Nobody will want to trade for him in say 5 years. His deal will look like an anchor, especially with a flat cap for the foreseeable future.

Marner value is up in the air. Depends what he does over the next few years.

If this core fails over the next five years, it'll likely be another five year segment of struggling unless some recent or upcoming draft picks turn into studs.

to say no team would trade for the final year of Matthews contract and exclusive negotiating rights for an entire year is not accurate... at all. Matthews is top 10 talent in the league, and will only be further cementing himself higher on that list at that point. If he trends on the side of leaving TO (which I agree, i think he will leave after his deal), it will not be hard to get a good return. And by return, I do not mean an Auston Matthews caliber player. I mean a package that kickstarts a very healthy rebuild (similar to Erik karlson but on steriods). Only at that point you start the rebuild. But if an extension is reached, and the team has gone to the finals or shown any significant reason to stay on course, you run your horses.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Oh okay, don’t mind me man. I follow them zip zero.

Even by the more traditional shots against, Leafs would still rank 2nd best out of the Canadian teams since Keefe was hired.

 

[Zybalto]

Whats the real numbers. Actual, reality numbers

Those numbers are a weighted combination of everything used to predict team defence in analytics. Shots against, corsi against, scoring chances against, etc. Those are all real things.

The top 3 teams on that list?

1. Columbus
2. Minnesota
3. Boston

Its not a stretch to say those would be on many folks list as the top 3 defensive teams in hockey.

If you are talking about Goals Against, thats not the same as team D. The numbers I gave you are the best approximation of team D we have.

Goals Against = xGA/60 + Team Save %

Since Keefe was hired:

xGA/60 Ranking:

8. Montreal
10. Toronto
16. Calgary
19. Edmontaon
25. Ottawa
28. Winnipeg
31. Vancouver

Team Save% Ranking:

7. Winnipeg
12. Vancouver
14. Calgary
20. Toronto
21. Edmonton
25. Montreal
26. Ottawa

Goals Against/60:

10. Winnipeg
17. Toronto
18. Calgary
21. Montreal
26. Vancouver
27. Edmonton
30. Ottawa

It's not an exact science but it certainly helps with explaining why a team is letting in goals over a season.

Even those who weight GA heavily on the D has to take notice the Leafs are still 2nd among Canadian teams even with all the injuries and goalie inconsistency.

Rankings under Babcock (2016-2019 for simplicity):
xGA/60: 27th
Save%: 5th
Goals Against: 16th

Terrible defensive team being propped up by stellar goaltending.

Rankings under Keefe:
xGA/60: 10th
Save%: 20th
Goals Against: 17th

Huge turnaround in defensive play amid goaltending issues.

Notice that goals against are virtually identical but the reasons for the ranking is completely different.

Anyways.....does that answer your question.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

This season, it's obvious that the Leafs NEED to move on beyond round 1 to avoid catching an avalanche of shit from fans, media, and likely ownership. While one could argue that maybe they should be afforded more time given how some regimes just last in other markets despite years of letdowns (like Montreal surprisingly, no idea how Bergevin has managed to keep his post long enough to turn things around), here it won't be accepted. If not firings of Shanahan, Dubas, or Keefe, we'll likely see the removal of one of Marner or Nylander to really kick this team in the pants. Outside of some unforeseen and unfortunate circumstance (like multiple injuries to core players in the first round) there will be no mercy given should they fail to move on again.

Now whether one considers beating a Canadian team in the playoffs as more of an accomplishment than going 7 against Boston in 2018 and 2019 is another story, and is irrelevant to the discussion in my opinion. Sure those Bruins teams were better than anything this North Division has to offer, but either way these Leafs have to win a playoff round. Even if the team they face is weaker than past years it's still better than nothing. Certainly other Canadian teams have benefited from facing weak competition in the playoffs and sticking that playoff round win in their caps (Calgary beating an old Vancouver team in 2015, Montreal beating a Pens team that is on a bad streak of lack of playoff success). Not to take away from those accomplishments, certainly more than we've done and at some point you just have to beat one of the good teams to win anything worthwhile anyway, but still. There's something to be said for experiencing any kind of success at all.

Dubas, for his part, basically did everything I wanted him to do for this franchise after last seasons' disappointment against the Jackets. He's addressed the defence, added grit, toughness, and more leadership/intangibles, and addressed our weakening prospect pool. Despite all of this I'm still very reserved on the potential of this team. We've been burned one too many times by this core for me to believe they're capable of any substantial success. We've had "good" offseasons before and still lack any substantial on ice success to be proud of. While this year obviously presents a great opportunity to rectify that, I won't buy it until it happens.

Here's how I will grade the season dependent on results:

Catastrophe: Missing the playoffs entirely. Self-explanatory. Leafs would definitely need to drastically alter the course and move core players. This is highly unlikely though.

Failure: Another first round exit. None of the Canadian teams present the style of play or have the defensive aptitude that can stymie us like Boston or Columbus have. No Canadian team would be considered a Cup Contender in a normal year with normal divisions. Even if the Leafs win the division this would still be an awful result and would likely result in core players being removed.

Cusp of Success/Middling Season: First round win but a second round exit. Again I don't think the Leafs should have too much to fear out of this division, no team is without flaws, however there are teams with a good bit of potential. If the Leafs do win in round one but get beat in round 2 that would be less than ideal, but it is the playoffs and anything can happen. "But then wouldn't the same logic apply to round 1???" No, because I expect the Leafs to finish 1st or 2nd in this division, and any team coming at 3rd or 4th should not be a massive issue. If the Leafs do struggle in the regular season and end up beating a higher seed in round 1 to move on then the season is more of a success.

Successful: Conference Finals appearance. Winning the Canadian division and representing the country in the final four should be what this team strives for. There's no other Canadian team that should outright scare the Leafs like has been the case with Tampa and Boston the past few years. The Leafs should be capable of beating out the rest of the Canadian teams and moving on to the Final Four.

Unprecedented Success: Cup Finals appearance, or dare I say more. Would be quite a leap going from a team that "missed" the playoffs last year to being one of the last two standing. This is outside the realm of possibility and shouldn't even be thought of however given how this team has flamed out before.

Percentage chance for Results:

Miss Playoffs = 1%
First Round = 30%
Second Round = 35%
Conference Finals = 25%
Finals = 8%
********* = 1%

Is a first round loss percentage high? I suppose but this team has disappointed before, I ain't giving the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Menzinger]

It's not that easy though. Matthews is most likely walking after year 5. His people and quite frankly the league would prefer he is in a US market. Theres no doubt in my mind he will be in New York, Chicago, Vegas or LA after this deal. The fact that he only committed to 5 years speaks volumes. If he was really committed to the organization he would have taken less and committed the full 8 years. I don't think any team that he's not committed to long term will trade for him and those that are on his list will just wait for free agency and get him for free.

Tavares will continue to decline and is likely a Leaf until the end of the contract. Nobody will want to trade for him in say 5 years. His deal will look like an anchor, especially with a flat cap for the foreseeable future.

Marner value is up in the air. Depends what he does over the next few years.

If this core fails over the next five years, it'll likely be another five year segment of struggling unless some recent or upcoming draft picks turn into studs.

If an 8 year contract is the main variable to determine if a player will leave their home drafted team, than that would apply 99.9% of RFAs, including star players considering how rare those deals are.

Never mind the historical reality that only like 4 stars left their drafted teams in the cap era while in their 20s, one of whom opted to sign with the Leafs. Looks like your predictions don't have much weight behind them

 

[Menzinger]

That is not what is most likely at all.

Matthews was open to all sorts of contract terms. His biggest priority was keeping the group together, which speaks much louder volumes. 5 years is an extremely common term for players of his quality.

Tavares is not in decline. He is an elite player.

Just Two seasons removed from having one ofnthr best seasons of any centre in franchise history and hes already supposedly in "decline" lol. Even with a documented injury last season he was still borderline ppg. Folks need to get a more realistic way of analyzing players

 

[The CyNick]

That is not what is most likely at all.

Matthews was open to all sorts of contract terms. His biggest priority was keeping the group together, which speaks much louder volumes. 5 years is an extremely common term for players of his quality.

Tavares is not in decline. He is an elite player.

If Matthews cared about anything other than maximizing his AAV he would have signed for something like 8 yrs at $9.5M per. That would have been a signal that he was interested in building a future with the Leafs and doing his part to create a winner. Even McDavid took a significant discount to do that.

As for Tavares, hes never been an elite player. Hes always been a very good player. Tier down from the top guys in the league. In five years do you think he will be a 40-40 guy?

 

[The CyNick]

McDavid's people and the league were perfectly fine hiding him up in Edmonton for his entire prime years? I don't know about that...

Matthews has proven to be all about the money though, so I think it's very possible he signs in a tax free state as a ufa.

I could also see him staying.

Long and short of it I guess is I have absolutely no idea what he' going to do. It's a wildcard situation.

I think McDavid is old school. Hes doing his best to make it work in Edmonton. Plus, from a TV perspective hes in Canada, so the rights holder that pays the most money has the current best player in the league on a Canadian team to help drive ratings. In the same breath, by being in Canada, most top Canadian companies are happy to have him as a sponsor. Would he have preferred to be in Toronto? Would Rogers prefer that? Hell yes. But Edmonton is fine.

For Matthews he might as well be playing on Mars as far as NBC is concerned. You have a guy who has the potential to be the best US player in history and hes stuck in a dead TV market (from an NBC standpoint). They would much prefer him in a major US market. Ideally in the West.

 

[The CyNick]

to say no team would trade for the final year of Matthews contract and exclusive negotiating rights for an entire year is not accurate... at all. Matthews is top 10 talent in the league, and will only be further cementing himself higher on that list at that point. If he trends on the side of leaving TO (which I agree, i think he will leave after his deal), it will not be hard to get a good return. And by return, I do not mean an Auston Matthews caliber player. I mean a package that kickstarts a very healthy rebuild (similar to Erik karlson but on steriods). Only at that point you start the rebuild. But if an extension is reached, and the team has gone to the finals or shown any significant reason to stay on course, you run your horses.

I dont doubt there will be deals out there. Rental market can get crazy. So yes, anything is possible. Highly unlikely you get an EK situation where a team deals a 1st and it turns into a top 5 pick. Most likely scenario is you get a couple picks in the mid to high 20s or worse.

 

[ToneDog]

I think McDavid is old school. Hes doing his best to make it work in Edmonton. Plus, from a TV perspective hes in Canada, so the rights holder that pays the most money has the current best player in the league on a Canadian team to help drive ratings. In the same breath, by being in Canada, most top Canadian companies are happy to have him as a sponsor. Would he have preferred to be in Toronto? Would Rogers prefer that? Hell yes. But Edmonton is fine.

For Matthews he might as well be playing on Mars as far as NBC is concerned. You have a guy who has the potential to be the best US player in history and hes stuck in a dead TV market (from an NBC standpoint). They would much prefer him in a major US market. Ideally in the West.

We can send him to Colorado for MacKinnon if it makes him, Sakic and NBC happy.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If Matthews cared about anything other than maximizing his AAV he would have signed for something like 8 yrs at $9.5M per.

That's ridiculous. That would be a massive, massive underpayment. Nobody else is expected to give a discount like that, and nobody ever has.

Even McDavid took a significant discount to do that.

McDavid gave one of if not the biggest discount in the history of the cap era, and even then, there's a good case for Matthews' contract relative to it when you look beyond exclusively raw points.

As for Tavares, hes never been an elite player.

Tavares has been an elite player for a literal decade, and there is no evidence that's going to stop anytime soon.

 

[The CyNick]

We can send him to Colorado for MacKinnon if it makes him, Sakic and NBC happy.

Ha. I wish. Sakic isn't Dubas lol.

 

[The CyNick]

That's ridiculous. That would be a massive, massive underpayment. Nobody else is expected to give a discount like that, and nobody ever has.

McDavid gave one of if not the biggest discount in the history of the cap era, and even then, there's a good case for Matthews' contract relative to it when you look beyond exclusively raw points.

Tavares has been an elite player for a literal decade, and there is no evidence that's going to stop anytime soon.

How has Tavares done in the playoffs?

How have the Isles done in the playoffs since he left.

Tavares was a great player, he's just never been elite.

 

[Stephen]

I think McDavid is old school. Hes doing his best to make it work in Edmonton. Plus, from a TV perspective hes in Canada, so the rights holder that pays the most money has the current best player in the league on a Canadian team to help drive ratings. In the same breath, by being in Canada, most top Canadian companies are happy to have him as a sponsor. Would he have preferred to be in Toronto? Would Rogers prefer that? Hell yes. But Edmonton is fine.

For Matthews he might as well be playing on Mars as far as NBC is concerned. You have a guy who has the potential to be the best US player in history and hes stuck in a dead TV market (from an NBC standpoint). They would much prefer him in a major US market. Ideally in the West.

Connor McDavid didn't leave a red cent on the table when he re-signed with Edmonton. Remember, he signed for $12.5 million for 8 years after scoring 100 points as a 20 year old in 2017. Compare and contrast that to Nikita Kucherov who signed for $9.5 million for 8 years one season later after scoring, you guessed it, 100 points in 2018. And guess which one of them actually won a cup?

At the end of the day, every athlete is well within their right to sign whatever they can. And yes, there are different taxation rates in different jurisdictions. And also yes, fans are free to feel however they want about whatever contract and whatever player. But let's also make sure the numbers generally line up with the media narratives.

Only thing old school about McDavid's AAV is he knee capped the Oilers.