Value of: Kotkaniemi extension

[General Fanager]

I mean, I would be inclined to agree….but on a board where people think rentals like Chariot will get a 1st+, it seems not that steep for a 21yr old 3rd liner with upside

To be fair its not just Habs fans, its the insiders also, and those insiders have asked around to actual scouts and people inside some teams management and a 1st seems reasonable when you see the deals in recent years.

 

[General Fanager]

The QO is not required for club elected arbitration. However, the team would lose walk away rights and choice of term. For those reasons, that outcome is likely, if the two sides can’t come to an agreement prior to the QO deadline.

Not required by rule but required by timing. isn't the deadline for QO long before the deadline to file for arb?

 

[T_Cage]

To be fair its not just Habs fans, its the insiders also, and those insiders have asked around to actual scouts and people inside some teams management and a 1st seems reasonable when you see the deals in recent years.

I don’t disagree with that either, but if that’s the market for “good but not great” rentals, then looking at JK as a 1Year rental makes the price of late 1st + a late 3rd seem pretty well in line

where Carolina will lose or win the deal is in the extension price imo

 

[General Fanager]

I don’t disagree with that either, but if that’s the market for “good but not great” rentals, then looking at JK as a 1Year rental makes the price of late 1st + a late 3rd seem pretty well in line

where Carolina will lose or win the deal is in the extension price imo

Thats true, assuming they extend him.

 

[Drake1588]

I can't think of a good reason not to use the time they have left to evaluate him, versus rushing to sign him after only three months of hockey in the organization. This could be the least likely player in the league for whom the January 1 extension date has any meaning. Take all the time available to you.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Not required by rule but required by timing. isn't the deadline for QO long before the deadline to file for arb?

June 15th or 48 hours after the SCF, for the 1st club elected arb window.

https://www.capfriendly.com/arbitration

 

[Seras]

I doubt they signed him without first discussing his extension.

 

[Sota Popinski]

As has been explained ad nauseam, Kotkaniemi’s cap hit is largely irrelevant to the Canes. Carolina had a unique cap situation of a lot of space and nothing to spend it on for just 1 year (raises for Necas and DeAngelo or an equivalent coming in 22-23). It’s not going to prevent the team from adding at the deadline, if it wants to.

The move should be judged by the return. Up to this point, it’s been a mild overpay. As much as some want Carolina to take a major L here, it’s not going to happen. It was a modest risk gamble to begin with.

It's not irrelevant to this thread. Marc Bergevin and the Habs aren't relevant to this but i don't see you jumping in to defend him.

He's not worth $6M on any contract. Work your way back from that.

 

[Sota Popinski]

You're responding to a juvenile troll there, but your cap space argument doesn't work.

He isn't worth $6m in cap space. Canes happened to have that to weaponize though. And that's just how offer sheets work, when they work. The "poison pill" effect, for one year, no more, no less.

They had the cap space to use on better players. It's called opportunity cost.

 

[McJedi]

Well no.
Arizona will be getting a much later 1st round pick than they were expecting. They couldve gotten a better 1st round pick had they kept dvorak and traded him later.

Carolina is paying 6.1 M to a player for 3rd line production.

There is no winner in this trade other than KK.

Carolina is winning their games with KK as a regular in their lineup. Habs are losing with Dvorak in their line up.

there is a winner here. Just look at the standings. Those Ws are a big part of how I evaluate a trade.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

13 pts in 29 games is not a 1st line guy.

At 5v5 he's been producing like a 1st line player.

He's not exactly getting a ton of PP opportunities.

 

[McJedi]

As has been explained ad nauseam, Kotkaniemi’s cap hit is largely irrelevant to the Canes. Carolina had a unique cap situation of a lot of space and nothing to spend it on for just 1 year (raises for Necas and DeAngelo or an equivalent coming in 22-23). It’s not going to prevent the team from adding at the deadline, if it wants to.

The move should be judged by the return. Up to this point, it’s been a mild overpay. As much as some want Carolina to take a major L here, it’s not going to happen. It was a modest risk gamble to begin with.

There was a major L here. It’s MB, former GM of the Habs.

Habs adding Dvorak at the cost of a first round pick only to be the second worst team in the NHL isn’t exactly a W either.

Carolina is winning with KK as a regular in their line up. That has to factor into their advantage as well.

KK also has 7 goals this season. Suzuki has just six goals. Caufield has 1 goal. So how bad has KK been? I can think of two guys on the Habs that have been less impressive. And Dvorak. Only 5 goals.

 

[dukeofjive]

4x4 should be a good deal for him and the team.

 

[LMFAO]

4 millions for 3 years looks like a nice deal for everyone


Good value for Carolina and KK gets to cash in as a UFA at 25 year old.

 

[McJedi]

KK: 13 points in 29 games
Dvorak: 12 points in 27 games

Do you want me to tell you the cap hit of each player?

Dvorak with his five goals in 27 games as the 2C. Woof. Nice trade MB. That’s how you spent a 2022 1st round pick?

Add another reason to the list he’s not longer employed by the Habs.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

It's not irrelevant to this thread. Marc Bergevin and the Habs aren't relevant to this but i don't see you jumping in to defend him.

He's not worth $6M on any contract. Work your way back from that.

Kotakaniemi doesn’t need to perform like a $6 mil player for this not to be a “dumb move” for the reason stated.

As far as Bergevin goes, the Dvorak trade was logical under the circumstances. Early returns have not been great, but the Habs should be able to get a solid return back in time.

I look at both moves as pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Carolina’s 1st is shaping up to be a pick in the mid 20s at best. It’s not that valuable. Everyone is in such a rush to call a GM or individual decision stupid.

 

[Oddbob]

Is it against the rules to talk about the future with a free agent?

It would be technically against the rules I think, but I bet it happens virtually every negotiation as there is no proof whether they talked about the future or didn't.

 

[Oddbob]

Carolina is winning their games with KK as a regular in their lineup. Habs are losing with Dvorak in their line up.

there is a winner here. Just look at the standings. Those Ws are a big part of how I evaluate a trade.

You are arguing in the dumbest way possible. Carolina is one of the better teams in the league, while Montreal is one of the worst teams in the league. Adding or not adding JK changed none of that. The Habs rode their goalie and team on a hot streak at the right time in a weird divisional setup, their record was poor as far as playoff teams go last year, and this year they were going to be worse. If Dvorak was in Carolina and JK still in Mtl the standings would look about the same.

 

[Oddbob]

At 5v5 he's been producing like a 1st line player.

He's not exactly getting a ton of PP opportunities.

He is also facing lower quality of opposition if he is playing on the 3rd line. More ice time also means going against the other teams top defenders. That is my problem with pts/60 stuff as it doesn't take your oppositions level of coverage into question. Athanasiou fans on our board used this all the time to plug how great he was, meanwhile he was playing against easier opposition to burn and get pts off of.

 

[McJedi]

You are arguing in the dumbest way possible. Carolina is one of the better teams in the league, while Montreal is one of the worst teams in the league. Adding or not adding JK changed none of that. The Habs rode their goalie and team on a hot streak at the right time in a weird divisional setup, their record was poor as far as playoff teams go last year, and this year they were going to be worse. If Dvorak was in Carolina and JK still in Mtl the standings would look about the same.

Montreal just lost the Stanley Cup finals.

I really doubt Carolina is lamenting the KK signing and they’ll likely ink him to a deal with some term after this season.

they won this set of transactions. Like they win on the ice. Dvorak looks like the ill advised move in hindsight. Paying a 2022 1st for a below average 2C in his prime on a team that needs to tear it down. That’s a thesis that makes no sense. A win now trade on a high lottery team.

Dvorak has seen his value decline since the trade and no way Habs could trade him for a 2022 1st at this stage.

 

[StreetHawk]

Montreal just lost the Stanley Cup finals.

I really doubt Carolina is lamenting the KK signing and they’ll likely ink him to a deal with some term after this season.

they won this set of transactions. Like they win on the ice. Dvorak looks like the ill advised move in hindsight. Paying a 2022 1st for a below average 2C in his prime on a team that needs to tear it down. That’s a thesis that makes no sense. A win now trade on a high lottery team.

Dvorak has seen his value decline since the trade and no way Habs could trade him for a 2022 1st at this stage.

It’s now a draft that is getting impacted by Covid with delays. In top of the missed games last season when these kids were 17.
Not as if Montreal couldn’t move Dvorak if they wanted to recoup assets. Have plenty of time to make that call.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

KK is scoring at 2.08 p/60 at 5v5. That's actually 1st line productivity.

Jesus Christ.

One of the most sad misuses of advanced stats is when people extrapolate 'per minute' scoring for people who are getting 4th line ice time.

It totally fails to account for quality of opponent, time in the game, zone starts, etc etc etc etc.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Carolina is winning their games with KK as a regular in their lineup. Habs are losing with Dvorak in their line up.

there is a winner here. Just look at the standings. Those Ws are a big part of how I evaluate a trade.

Using standings to prove whether a team won a trade is a terrible argument. With that logic, a bottom team will never win a trade since they will be lower in the standings than the other team. According to you, if the habs had traded Lehkonen for Andrei Svechnikov during the offseason they would have lost the trade because standings...

 

[Larry Hanson]

Not sure why people think it would be against the rules for an extension to have already been discussed. As a free agent (or now Canes property) they are free to discuss whatever they want whenever they want. By signing a 1yr offer sheet they aren't able to actually put pen to paper on an extension until the new year but there is no reason they can't have a deal worked out. Personally I think they already had an extension agreed to before the offer sheet and there is nothing wrong with that. Neither side is obligated to stick to the deal until it's signed however.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Jesus Christ.

One of the most sad misuses of advanced stats is when people extrapolate 'per minute' scoring for people who are getting 4th line ice time.

It totally fails to account for quality of opponent, time in the game, zone starts, etc etc etc etc.

That's not an advanced stat lol.

He leads the Canes in 5v5 goals, despite getting way less minutes.

That's not bad for a 3rd liner. But since he's not piling up the PP points people think he's struggling.