Rumor: Kotkaniemi Extension - 8 x $4.25-$4.5

[Boom Boom Apathy]

And the cost of living in Raleigh is pretty low compared to other hockey cities. He can chill out, rent a pretty nice place, live in a temperate climate, and just bank the extra money.

Flipside is that if inflation stays at a more traditional 2-3% range (and I'm skeptical of that), $5M today is worth the equivalent of about $3.9M in today's dollars 8 years from now. That's ignoring the cap going up over that timeframe in terms of player compensation. Also ignores any escrow issues short term.

Seems a bit odd to me that he'd sign a long term deal like this, but until I see the finalized terms, I'll withhold judgement. It's his call though so whatever makes him happy and as you and others have said, he's set for life with this especially if he hires a competent money manager.

 

[Samsquanch]

And the cost of living in Raleigh is pretty low compared to other hockey cities. He can chill out, rent a pretty nice place, live in a temperate climate, and just bank the extra money.

I say this with all due respect, but I dont think the cost of living in Raleigh moves the needle at all for star pro athletes. Even if it cost $50K/yr more to live in New York city or Vancouver during the hockey season - which it does not btw - your going to get a certain percentage of personalities that will laugh at the $50K trade off in exchange for feeling like they live somewhere "cool".

If I was 22yrs old making $6m + a year and was sought after- the cost of rent would be pretty far down on my list of priorities for a preferred long term destination. Personally speaking.

Having said that I cant agree more that matters big time to folks like you and myself. But I feel like the cheap rent and real estate in Raleigh aren't coming much into KKs decision making process with the numbers that we are dealing with here.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I say this with all due respect, but I dont think the cost of living in Raleigh moves the needle at all for pro athletes. Even if it cost $50K/yr more to live in New York city or Vancouver during the hockey season - which it does not btw - your going to get a certain percentage of personalities that will laugh at the $50K trade off in exchange for feeling like they live somewhere "cool". If I was 22yrs old making $6m + a year - the cost of rent would be pretty far down on my list of preferred destinations. Personally speaking.

Having said that I cant agree more that matters big time to folks like you and myself. But I feel like the cheap rent and real estate in Raleigh aren't coming much into KKs decision making process with the numbers that we are dealing with here.

I think it depends on the athlete and what their priorities are in life. There's tons of guys who have wanted to live in a more laid back atmosphere with comfortable surroundings rather than a fishbowl hustle bustle metropolis. Finnish players in general seem to not care as much for the glitz and glamour but obviously this is case by case. I'm sure a lot has to do with Kotkaniemi having 3 years in a hockey hotbed/cool market like MTL and how that went for him. I'm sure having Aho, TT, Raanta around and other good young players helps.

 

[Samsquanch]

I think it depends on the athlete and what their priorities are in life. There's tons of guys who have wanted to live in a more laid back atmosphere with comfortable surroundings rather than a fishbowl hustle bustle metropolis. Finnish players in general seem to not care as much for the glitz and glamour but obviously this is case by case. I'm sure a lot has to do with Kotkaniemi having 3 years in a hockey hotbed/cool market like MTL and how that went for him. I'm sure having Aho, TT, Raanta around and other good young players helps.

Agree for sure.

Just saying the difference between rent. food and gas (cost of living stuff) isnt going through the mind of a young star player signing a mega contract. Its everything else but that lol.

Players in Canada get paid in USD. The exchange is like 1.3 to 1. Just to put it in perspective (and how little it means for most players to have super charged dollars to spend during your day to day shopping expenses in reality).

 

[Derailed75]

Agree for sure.

Just saying the difference between rent. food and gas (cost of living stuff) isnt going through the mind of a young star player signing a mega contract. Its everything else but that lol.

Players in Canada get paid in USD. The exchange is like 1.3 to 1. Just to put it in perspective.

I get that and agree, I wasn't saying that was his thought just the truth of the matter and an added bonus for him

 

[MrNasty]

Title should be updated 8x4.82

 

[ManofSteel55]

Wow, this would mean KK isn't betting on himself becoming anything more than a 3C. If he breaks out next season , he'll be regretting that one. He's taking more money security than anything. If I was his agent I'd be pushing a 3 or 4 year deal (5 max) to bring him to UFA between 25-27.

Big win for Carolina if true though.

34+ million is a pretty large number regardless. Kotkenemi might be the kind of guy who wouldn't even have a 10 year career, or if he struggles moving forward, he could end up being a 2M player for much of his career. He would be taking the safe route here, but 34M+ basically sets him up for life regardless, unless he has extravagant tastes of course.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Agree for sure.

Just saying the difference between rent. food and gas (cost of living stuff) isnt going through the mind of a young star player signing a mega contract. Its everything else but that lol.

Players in Canada get paid in USD. The exchange is like 1.3 to 1. Just to put it in perspective (and how little it means for most players to have super charged dollars to spend during your day to day shopping expenses in reality).

That's what agents and finance managers are there for though. To make sure that these young guys getting multimillion dollar contracts know what everything means, including what the takehome salary would be in market A vs market B.

 

[Tripledeke333]

Wow, I guess the only person who believes in KK less than Ducharme is KK himself.

Maybe the “KK four finger” meant that “don’t let Danault go to give me 2C duties, I wanna be a fourth line guy”.

 

[abo9]

Wow, this would mean KK isn't betting on himself becoming anything more than a 3C. If he breaks out next season , he'll be regretting that one. He's taking more money security than anything. If I was his agent I'd be pushing a 3 or 4 year deal (5 max) to bring him to UFA between 25-27.

Big win for Carolina if true though.

I always thought that his biggest issue was a lack of confidence after his first couple games.

Him not betting on becoming any better than a 3C reinforces that hypothesis to me. It would seem like the Canes see in him a better player than he himself see in himself.

I don't doubt he could be solid for them though. Being on the 3rd line without much pressure behind two solid lines, he'd keep that confidence high

 

[StreetHawk]

34+ million is a pretty large number regardless. Kotkenemi might be the kind of guy who wouldn't even have a 10 year career, or if he struggles moving forward, he could end up being a 2M player for much of his career. He would be taking the safe route here, but 34M+ basically sets him up for life regardless, unless he has extravagant tastes of course.

Given KK’s age of being 22 in July it still gives carolina up to 4 more seasons to decide to keep him for the final 4 or more seasons or cut bait with a buyout at 1/3 the salary that would leave them with a dead cap of $750k to $850k per year for 8 years or longer (depending on the annual cash break down). That’s the cost of a spare 13/14 forward.

Just that they have to have it on the books for 8 years or longer.

So in terms of risk that does lower it for Carolina.

That’s 5 ufa years that KK is giving up. But if he doesn’t seem himself as a 2C that can put up 60 points a season but more a 3C in the 45 range then this will be fine.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Given KK’s age of being 22 in July it still gives carolina up to 4 more seasons to decide to keep him for the final 4 or more seasons or cut bait with a buyout at 1/3 the salary that would leave them with a dead cap of $750k to $850k per year for 8 years or longer (depending on the annual cash break down). That’s the cost of a spare 13/14 forward.

Just that they have to have it on the books for 8 years or longer.

So in terms of risk that does lower it for Carolina.

That’s 5 ufa years that KK is giving up. But if he doesn’t seem himself as a 2C that can put up 60 points a season but more a 3C in the 45 range then this will be fine.

Maybe he sees himself as that but would rather have the security in case of injuries and whatnot.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Great deal for the Canes

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

This will be a ridiculous steal of a deal in a few years... I'm not a big fan of him but paying him only this much per year for 8 years will be a guaranteed steal for majority of the contract

 

[Rydev]

This will be a ridiculous steal of a deal in a few years... I'm not a big fan of him but paying him only this much per year for 8 years will be a guaranteed steal for majority of the contract

Hes only turning 22 so hes still very young.. but Im not so sure how its an obvious steal for 'a majority of the contract' when he's yet to even produce at a .40ppg rate in his career

Hes also extremely sheltered on a contender, I very much doubt he can fill a 2C void if Trochek left. So you're paying close to 5m for eight years for a sub-.5ppg player?

Id rather not pay that kind of money for that little of production, and he hasn't earned any of that term yet.

Its a far riskier deal than it is a safe bet. .35ppg player totalling 12ATOI on cap-strapped contenders dont (or shouldnt) get eight year deals near their highest dollar value

 

[CupInSIX]

The important thing is it's way below his qualifying offer. How did he get such a crazy qualifying offer anyhow?

That's the headline, but the actual rule uses the wording "[Club] acquires". And boy, wasn't he acquired!

I say, I say

 

[The Hockey Tonk Man]

Hes only turning 22 so hes still very young.. but Im not so sure how its an obvious steal for 'a majority of the contract' when he's yet to even produce at a .40ppg rate in his career

Hes also extremely sheltered on a contender, I very much doubt he can fill a 2C void if Trochek left. So you're paying close to 5m for eight years for a sub-.5ppg player?

Id rather not pay that kind of money for that little of production, and he hasn't earned any of that term yet.

Its a far riskier deal than it is a safe bet. .35ppg player totalling 12ATOI on cap-strapped contenders dont (or shouldnt) get eight year deals near their highest dollar value

There's lots of players making ~$5 mil per season putting up ~0.5ish ppg.
I'd say it's a great deal for the Canes even if he tops out as a 0.5ppg player. I have a feeling he'll be better than that though.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

This will be a ridiculous steal of a deal in a few years... I'm not a big fan of him but paying him only this much per year for 8 years will be a guaranteed steal for majority of the contract

Has an 8 year deal to a young RFA forward ever not paid off? I know the Mike Matheson deal went sour for Florida (then suddenly he's good in Pittsburgh right?) but I think every 8 year deal to an RFA forward has paid off handsomely for the signing team.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Has an 8 year deal to a young RFA forward ever not paid off? I know the Mike Matheson deal went sour for Florida (then suddenly he's good in Pittsburgh right?) but I think every 8 year deal to an RFA forward has paid off handsomely for the signing team.

I mean there haven't been that many and a lot of them have been given to obvious guys like McDavid and Eichel (did that pay off handsomely for Buffalo?).

This is the lowest AAV for any 8 year deal for a RFA forward I can find, Eriksson Ek is the only real comparable.

 

[Johniac]

Canes would be getting a solid player with upside for the foreseeable future with the added bonus of contributing to Marc B.'s firing - Win, Win.

 

[Frank Drebin]

The public pantsing of Bergevin continues. Not gonna lie the petty, small fan in me wants Kotkaniemi to fail just so this doesn't look so bad

 

[StreetHawk]

Maybe he sees himself as that but would rather have the security in case of injuries and whatnot.

if he gets bought out at 1/3 the salary it’s not as good a deal for him. Unless he got heavy SB which I would not expect.

So for security it depends on contract structure.

But doubt it’s SB or front loaded like a 30 year old’s contract would be.

Having 2/3 of the remaining salary guaranteed would be security. 1/3 not so much. He could get close to coming out even looking for deals after a buyout for $1.5 mill AAV (at the 2/3 buyout rate) but unlikely for $3 mill (for the 1/3 buyout rate).

So July 2026 will be a key time frame to look back on this deal.

 

[Rydev]

There's lots of players making ~$5 mil per season putting up ~0.5ish ppg.
I'd say it's a great deal for the Canes even if he tops out as a 0.5ppg player. I have a feeling he'll be better than that though.

And if he becomes a .5ppg player then Id be willing to agree with you on the dollar amount

but theres just nothing I can wrap my head around for wanting to lock up an unproven asset until they're 30

 

[StreetHawk]

And if he becomes a .5ppg player then Id be willing to agree with you on the dollar amount

but theres just nothing I can wrap my head around for wanting to lock up an unproven asset until they're 30

Especially for a guy who is not a core player. He’s not one of the key 4/5 Hurricanes players. But again, they have upwards of 4 years to get out of the deal in terms of a cheap buyout that would cost them a dead cap of around a sore depth forward cap hit.

 

[Rydev]

Especially for a guy who is not a core player. He’s not one of the key 4/5 Hurricanes players. But again, they have upwards of 4 years to get out of the deal in terms of a cheap buyout that would cost them a dead cap of around a sore depth forward cap hit.

Thats interesting - I didnt know that was a stipulation in the deal

Still would never go over four years for him, but a fifth with that clause after say year 3 wouldn't be so bad