Rumor: Kotkaniemi Extension - 8 x $4.25-$4.5

[StreetHawk]

KK has not proven to be any more than a bottom 6F at this point. 10-12 min a game is not the going rate for $4.5M AAV. They are paying him that cause they created that situation with the $6.1M offer sheet where it gave him leverage.

8 year term? They obviously believe in him improving. I will be curious to see his ice time after the deal

He has 23 points in 56 games. Canes have 23 games left. His ppg pace would get him to like 32 points in 79 games. He had 34 in 79 as an 18 year old rookie.
It will be interesting to see the structure of the contract and whether KK protected himself with either SB or front loading the contract. I doubt he could get that though.

 

[Rydev]

He's over 0.4 ppg as we speak. And whenever he's been asked to fill in higher up in the lineup he's been great. In the 12 games where he's played 14 minutes or more, he's got 6 goals and 11 points...

And in those twelve games he played teams like Buffalo, Arizona, Columbus, Detroit, Vancouver, Philadelphia, and Dallas. Also, during that stretch most of his production was assisted/scored by Teravainen or Necas, where he isnt even centering the line; not his usual linemates in Martinook, Stepan, or Lorentz

But again, I am sure Kotkaniemi will end up a fine third liner long-term for Carolina. I just would never offer eight years for that

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

And in those twelve games he played teams like Buffalo, Arizona, Columbus, Detroit, Vancouver, Philadelphia, and Dallas. Also, during that stretch most of his production was assisted/scored by Teravainen or Necas, where he isnt even centering the line; not his usual linemates in Martinook, Stepan, or Lorentz

But again, I am sure Kotkaniemi will end up a fine third liner long-term for Carolina. I just would never offer eight years for that

So you mean when he plays higher up in the lineup he produces better? Sounds like he's quite capable of filling in as a top 6 player when needed.

Consider that In the 14 games where he's gotten less than 11 minutes he has only 3 points. So maybe he just needs ice time to produce? Ice time that he will surely get as guys like Trochek and Staal either move on or take smaller roles.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I like KK, I'd have liked for the habs to keep him but it seems to me like his skating is still weak this year which is why he may never become that 2nd liner for not just the Canes but any team in the NHL. He could be a 2/3 but mainly a 3C imo, but for 8x4.5m? I don't think this is a good idea for Carolina.

There's nothing wrong with your 3C making $4.5m. Especially with the cap going up in the next few years. Staal is doing that role for us (sure while being captain and being a elite shutdown guy) but either way that is a price that we are very much fine paying for KK.

 

[ottawa]

There's nothing wrong with your 3C making $4.5m. Especially with the cap going up in the next few years. Staal is doing that role for us (sure while being captain and being a elite shutdown guy) but either way that is a price that we are very much fine paying for KK.

Seems like a bad comparison no? Staal was coming off a 50 points in 62 game season while being captain and an elite shutdown guy like you said

 

[Runner77]

Just speculation based on on Koko’s jersey number. It might be right but we still don’t have a form number

“Koko” is his moniker now? That’s cringy.

 

[Rydev]

So you mean when he plays higher up in the lineup he produces better? Sounds like he's quite capable of filling in as a top 6 player when needed.

Consider that In the 14 games where he's gotten less than 11 minutes he has only 3 points. So maybe he just needs ice time to produce? Ice time that he will surely get as guys like Trochek and Staal either move on or take smaller roles.

While we cant be sure if he'd keep that production up under non-sheltered minutes for a season, sure he will look good in a string of games with some of the teams best.

But his future role is the third (and PP); Necas will likely be their 2 when Trochek moves on, and Jesperi wont have Teravainen or Svechnikov on his line. Sure he can maybe hit nice totals with good PP2 time, but even strength is he going to wow anyone on the third with other third line level talents?

Because thats what Id need if Im signing a third liner to eight years. And then that means they're a top-6 player who's only really playing 3C due to need. Kotkaniemi's minutes going up 5v5 wont matter much if his linemates are bottom-6 quality, as has been the case most of his career thus far

My hangup is not the dollar value or if he will probably end up a stable 3C with 2RW capabilities; its signing a player to eight years as a contender when you aren't sure of the latter being the case yet. Some 12 game sample size hasn't changed that yet, especially when considering its context and why he got those minutes

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

“Koko” is his moniker now? That’s cringy.

Your concern has been duly noted, and appropriate actions will be taken to remedy your discomfort.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Carolina is actually a competent team so I would trust their judgement if they give KK an 8 year deal.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Seems like a bad comparison no? Staal was coming off a 50 points in 62 game season while being captain and an elite shutdown guy like you said

Well… ummm… I guess that’s why he won’t be making $6m per year then.

$4.5m per year for JK going forward is absolutely fine for us but by all means keep on spinning your wheels on how it’s an awful move.

 

[didimentionlarseller]

I think more teams could copy this and start offer-sheeting third and fourth line players going forward

 

[Chan790]

I'm really just not a fan of this deal and wanted the Canes to walk on Kotkaniemi this offseason.

8 years is horrendous as I don't see the long-term role for him...I don't buy him as having real top-6 potential for a contender; he's a poor-team's middle-6 C and I don't see him beating out Drury to succeed Jordan Staal as the 3C taking the hard matchups. Staal and Drury are on an entirely different level as defensive Cs. He hasn't shown anything in limited viewing on the wing either.

So...he's a guy signed long-term with no obvious role unless he has a huge, unlikely, break-out. The term makes him a hard trade if he doesn't break-out.

 

[Canes]

I'm really just not a fan of this deal and wanted the Canes to walk on Kotkaniemi this offseason.

8 years is horrendous as I don't see the long-term role for him...I don't buy him as having real top-6 potential for a contender; he's a poor-team's middle-6 C and I don't see him beating out Drury to succeed Jordan Staal as the 3C taking the hard matchups. Staal and Drury are on an entirely different level as defensive Cs. He hasn't shown anything in limited viewing on the wing either.

So...he's a guy signed long-term with no obvious role unless he has a huge, unlikely, break-out. The term makes him a hard trade if he doesn't break-out.

lol I'm a not a huge fan of a 8 year deal myself but there's literally zero evidence to suggest Drury is a better option going forward. Drury needs to get on KK's level first. Drury is actually older. But if/when Trocheck walks and Staal continues to decline offensively both guys are going to have plenty of chances in a middle 6 role, and KK has produced fine for mainly playing on the 4th line with very little powerplay time. He's still only 21 years old and basically matching what Trocheck did at a similar age despite playing a lot less.

 

[ottawa]

Well… ummm… I guess that’s why he won’t be making $6m per year then.

$4.5m per year for JK going forward is absolutely fine for us but by all means keep on spinning your wheels on how it’s an awful move.

Touchy much? What wheel did I spin lmao

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

4.5 is pretty standard money for decent third line players and he's going to get better if carolina can fit him under their cap structure going forward I dont see why not he's a big body that's hard to play against and forechecks well if not producing

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Touchy much? What wheel did I spin lmao

Well as a Habs fan it would seem it’s the wheel of misfortune

 

[Lshap]

The unusual case of a player whose contract drama makes a bigger impact than his production.

 

[Chrispy]

Seems like a bad comparison no? Staal was coming off a 50 points in 62 game season while being captain and an elite shutdown guy like you said

There's more than a $1.5M AAV difference (or even $1M if rumors closer to $5M are correct) between signing a long-term $6M AAV deal starting in 2013 ($69M cap, so 8.7% of the cap) and signing a long-term $4.5M AAV deal starting in 2023 ($82.5M cap, so 5.5% of the cap.)

Just as Jordan Staal's contract looks much more reasonable now than when he signed it in 2013, Kotkaniemi's contract will look much more reasonable in a few years even if he remains a 3C.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

AAV seems more in line with what the Habs brass (and many fans) saw, so that makes sense. Usually players being overpaid start performing worse, so maybe if Kotkaniemi can outperform this contract he'll be very comfortable in the locker room. If he underperforms this contract, well he'll be a problem but I don't think that will happen in a very significant way.

My main concern with Kotkaniemi was that he was not very good on the PK and so he seems a bit ill-suited for the role you'd ideally like him to play of 2nd-3rd line tweener center with size. Maybe he'll figure it out going forward, but all things considered, it seems like a 1st and a 3rd for Kotkaniemi and this contract was probably a pretty fair trade for both sides.

 

[Stubu]

“Koko” is his moniker now? That’s cringy.

It came to be "Koko Miami" courtesy of autocorrect.

Who dare stand in opposition to the mighty autocorrect, no matter how cringeworthy?

 

[Stubu]

AAV seems more in line with what the Habs brass (and many fans) saw, so that makes sense. Usually players being overpaid start performing worse, so maybe if Kotkaniemi can outperform this contract he'll be very comfortable in the locker room. If he underperforms this contract, well he'll be a problem but I don't think that will happen in a very significant way.

My main concern with Kotkaniemi was that he was not very good on the PK and so he seems a bit ill-suited for the role you'd ideally like him to play of 2nd-3rd line tweener center with size. Maybe he'll figure it out going forward, but all things considered, it seems like a 1st and a 3rd for Kotkaniemi and this contract was probably a pretty fair trade for both sides.

Um, there is no contract.

The earliest date for signing an extension seems to be 21 March.

So far the term and AAV remain just gossip, albeit coming from usually knowledgeable sources. So let's hold the horses for a few days. Not a done deal yet.

 

[bretpatrick7]

Having watched kotkaniemi a lot and his potential. Lets start by saying the ceiling for kotkaniemi is 2C (best case scenario). I'm not convinced he will be. He isn't very strong on his feet and his shot lacks a bit of accuracy and quickness. He has not showed much improvement in either of those areas since he joined the NHL and his numbers pretty much reflect that. If you want KK to have success, he needs to play a 3C role, if Canes think he will fit in as a 2C next year, he will struggle as he will be going up against tougher defence pairings that are faster and more physical. The contract for 8 years at 4.82Mill/per could be a decent contract for a 3C 3-4 years down the road. I wouldn't do it, but i am not a GM of the NHL and i think he will regress forced into a 2C role next year.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm really just not a fan of this deal and wanted the Canes to walk on Kotkaniemi this offseason.

8 years is horrendous as I don't see the long-term role for him...I don't buy him as having real top-6 potential for a contender; he's a poor-team's middle-6 C and I don't see him beating out Drury to succeed Jordan Staal as the 3C taking the hard matchups. Staal and Drury are on an entirely different level as defensive Cs. He hasn't shown anything in limited viewing on the wing either.

So...he's a guy signed long-term with no obvious role unless he has a huge, unlikely, break-out. The term makes him a hard trade if he doesn't break-out.

Drury has yet to play his 33rd minute of NHL hockey.

 

[yianik]

If KK signs on for 8 years at $4.25M it means he is accepting that he is a 3C, which would be surprising to me. For the Canes, if KK plays well defensively , scores 15-20 and gets 35 plus points or so, that contract is pretty good, and KK should be able to at least do that. If KK does better, then yes a steal for the Canes.

But I dont know if its in anybodys interest to have a real long term contract at that money. If KK starts producing well, then I have to think he will get all pouty about that contract and his play will tail off.

He seems to appreciate the Canes pulling him out of Montreal, maybe sign him to 2 years and see if he has that 2C ability. Then wrap him up long term to whatever ?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Having watched kotkaniemi a lot and his potential. Lets start by saying the ceiling for kotkaniemi is 2C (best case scenario). I'm not convinced he will be. He isn't very strong on his feet and his shot lacks a bit of accuracy and quickness. He has not showed much improvement in either of those areas since he joined the NHL and his numbers pretty much reflect that. If you want KK to have success, he needs to play a 3C role, if Canes think he will fit in as a 2C next year, he will struggle as he will be going up against tougher defence pairings that are faster and more physical. The contract for 8 years at 4.82Mill/per could be a decent contract for a 3C 3-4 years down the road. I wouldn't do it, but i am not a GM of the NHL and i think he will regress forced into a 2C role next year.

In the 12 games where he has gotten at least 14 minutes of ice time, he has 6 goals and 11 points... He seems to thrive when elevated in the lineup...