Traded Korpisalo (5 years/20M)

Gil Gunderson

Registered User
May 2, 2007
32,521
18,627
Ottawa, ON
By advanced stats, Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, among goalies who played 20 games or more, Korpisalo ranked 11th in the NHL, Forsberg 12th.

Matt Murray was 30th, Craig Anderson 32nd, Samsonov 8th, Gustavson 5th, Ulmark 1st, Saros 2nd.

I like this stat as it uses quality of chances, and the per 60 minutes evens out # of games played.

I pretty much expect Forsberg to be the better goalie this year.
 
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ijif

Registered User
Dec 20, 2018
771
751
2021-22 Injuries caused poor play (hip).
2020-21 poor season.
2019-20 good regular season, spectacular playoffs with .941 save %, upset Toronto, lost to Tampa.

Why did you exclude 2019-20 in your analysis?

He's had 2 good years, 1 bad year, and 1 bad injured year in the last 4 years. He's the age when most goalies come into their own if they ever do. Forsberg was more risky when the Sens acquired him, and he's been good for 2 seasons now.

Sure, he's a gamble. Most goalies are. There was nobody else better available. The AAV is fine. Like most fans, I'd prefer if it was 3 years, but that's how free agency works, you either overpay AAV or term.

Goalies are hard to predict. Who'd have thought Adin Hill, Samsonov, and Gustavson would be so great last year? Note, don't put words in my mouth and say that I'm saying Korp will follow these guys, I'm not saying that, but I guarantee you're going to want to spin it that way, considering you left out 2019-20.
Why didn't you just list every year of his career with the correlated GSAx/60 (the stat you cited)?

Here it is with no game filter because I am lazy, but also because the raw values contain more than enough information. The stats are from MoneyPuck (the website you cited).

15/16: 0.213 (28th)
16/17: 0.061 (43rd)
17/18: -0.526 (78th)
18/19: -0.476 (62nd)
19/20: -0.206 (43rd)...how can you claim "2019-20 good regular season"?
20/21: -0.474 (68th)
21/22: -0.702 (93rd)
22/23: 0.351 (26th)
 

thammias

Registered User
Feb 8, 2006
318
166
Geez, the man hasn't played a single game for us yet and it's like some of you are hoping and expecting him to fail just to say I told you so.

Yes we overpayed on term, happens in free agency when other teams want his services also. The overpayment is a risk I take everyday, because the other option going into the most important season of our rebuild so far in terms of expectations from our young core is a not ready Sogaard and Forsberg coming back from 2 bum knees.
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
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I’m not putting words in your mouth. You mentioned GSAA. Last year his GSAA was impressive. Every other year. Was bad , not that great. 19-20 was good too. And before that..not that good. Not so bueno for big contract
So when he had hip issues, he wasn’t as good. Weird how you want him to fail.
 
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BonHoonLayneCornell

Registered User
Oct 16, 2006
17,125
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Yukon
Lol its not hoping a guy fails if you have doubts and point to a questionable history. Its a risk, not a slam dunk, and everyone knows that. This place is a goalie graveyard after all and the last big goalie signing could not possibly have worked out worse than it did.
 

Burrowsaurus

Registered User
Mar 20, 2013
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So when he had hip issues, he wasn’t as good. Weird how you want him to fail.
I hope he’s a perennial vezina candidate.


I don’t think it’s really fair to say he happened to be healthy in his 2 good years and injured in all the others. Again if that’s the case why are we handing big money out to him
 

BoardsofCanada

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Aug 26, 2009
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I think Korpis will be fine. I am not expecting greatness.. just legitimate starting goalie efforts. Maybe 40 starts with a 26-14 w/l record.. would be nice.

What's far more important is that our D plays like it should. On paper, it looks great. They have to prove it this season.
 
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Icelevel

During these difficult times...
Sep 9, 2009
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I can see him being slightly above average and I can see him being fire.
I’ll be kind of surprised if it’s less. Just hope no injury please thank you.
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
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I think the team will be fine if it gets average NHL goaltending. I think we're above average if not we'll above average in forwards and D so as long as we have a reasonably healthy season from our goaltending it should be good.
 

Beech

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Nov 25, 2020
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I hope he’s a perennial vezina candidate.


I don’t think it’s really fair to say he happened to be healthy in his 2 good years and injured in all the others. Again if that’s the case why are we handing big money out to him
he also played in Columbus.. a poor team for the bulk of his time there.

His brief stint in LA, was good (opening round of the playoffs...not so good).. LA has no cap room for a goalie making anything above 1 M.. They had to sign Talbot at 1 M!!!!

The reality is, we have never seen Korpisalo in a "normal" situation, other than ~ 30 games in LA.

For a 29 year old, his resume reads more like that of a 22 year old.

Never trust data/stats on a player on a poor team or a good team. The most telling stats are those by players on mid table teams.

If come December, he has played 15 games and is worse than 2.8 GAA, 0.91 SV and worse than 9-6... OHH f***! The Sens are out of the playoffs already. Dorion and DJ are gone and hello Mat Murray 2.0!!

3 1/2 months to get all your answers.
 

Beech

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Nov 25, 2020
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I think the team will be fine if it gets average NHL goaltending. I think we're above average if not we'll above average in forwards and D so as long as we have a reasonably healthy season from our goaltending it should be good.
December.. 3 1/2 months from now

He should be at game 15 played.. He either has decent numbers, or the Sens are out of the playoffs. Everyone is fired and we have Mat Murray all over again.

3 1/2 months.. Not long to wait.

Its what I love about sports.. there is that scoreboard to look at at the end.. It tells you everything.
 

Do Make Say Think

& Yet & Yet
Jun 26, 2007
51,456
10,272
Good God I hope this guy is legit.
This signing has all the hallmarks of another "epic swing for the fences and..... what a disaster of an outcome" for Pierre "I am the most insecure GM there is and love unforced errors because of it" Dorion.

Hopefully it works out. Clearly he's got the talent, it is all about the body and consistency.

I fully expect this to be another Dorion Disaster though.
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
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This signing has all the hallmarks of another "epic swing for the fences and..... what a disaster of an outcome" for Pierre "I am the most insecure GM there is and love unforced errors because of it" Dorion.

Hopefully it works out. Clearly he's got the talent, it is all about the body and consistency.

I fully expect this to be another Dorion Disaster though.
He was the best free agent goalie available, probably a year too long, in term.
But it was the Sens number need this off season.
 

Do Make Say Think

& Yet & Yet
Jun 26, 2007
51,456
10,272
He was the best free agent goalie available, probably a year too long, in term.
But it was the Sens number need this off season.
It was and Dorion addressed it but he also took on a ton of risk.

Nothing wrong with risk but Dorion has a poor track record as a risk taker.
 

Gil Gunderson

Registered User
May 2, 2007
32,521
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Ottawa, ON
It would be a risk worth taking if we didn’t already have Forsberg. If Forsberg is 100% healthy, giving out that contract with Korpisalo’s track record seems very unforced.
 

benjiv1

Registered User
Mar 8, 2010
5,272
3,657
Ottawa
It would be a risk worth taking if we didn’t already have Forsberg. If Forsberg is 100% healthy, giving out that contract with Korpisalo’s track record seems very unforced.
Agreed.

Not including Price and Murray, Korpisalo is the 23rd highest paid goalie in the league. In a couple of seasons with the cap going up, he is likely going to be paid even further below the average for a #1 goalie.

Unless he completely flames out, I actually don’t mind the strategy of locking him in for 5 years.

Tkachuk, Chabot and Korpisalo are all UFAs in the same year. By that point we will know if we are able to keep the band together and stay competitive, or if we are needing to retool.
 
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Beech

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Nov 25, 2020
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It was and Dorion addressed it but he also took on a ton of risk.

Nothing wrong with risk but Dorion has a poor track record as a risk taker.
what was he to do?

the league has become the NFL.. The NFL is 32 teams, 20 quality QBs.. So you get Deshaun Watson!!! Or Kirk Cousins.. or 101 other desperate QB signings and moves.

32 NHL teams, 20 quality Goalies. It forces hands.

The Sens have missed the playoffs the last 2 season thanks in large part to weakish goaltending.

each missed year has put one more nail in Dorion's coffin, in DJ Smith's coffin, in the coffin of 10-20 Hockey Ops people... And each missed year has cost 20-25 M USD.

The Sisters lost 40-50 M.. plus interest.. So, 45-55 M.

The risk today is not in: Signing a goalie.. It is in NOT signing a goalie.

The NCAA uses American players exclusively in goal. The CHL passed a rule some 15 years ago, only North American KIDS in goal. The hope was to protect and develop the goalie market.. It has not worked.

Goalies are now almost exclusively European. and their numbers are low. AND IF THEY HAD A BRAIN IN THEIR HEAD.. they would all pull a Bobrovsky and pool in tax free zones and specific USA locations and drive their salaries through the roof. BUT NHL goalies are nowhere near as smart as NFL quarterbacks.
 

OD99

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Oct 13, 2012
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The CHL passed a rule some 15 years ago, only North American KIDS in goal. The hope was to protect and develop the goalie market.. It has not worked.
Not sure of the rest but this isn't accurate.

The Senators recently had goalies play in the CHL, both Mads and Mero.
 

Beech

Registered User
Nov 25, 2020
3,333
1,195
The ban was lifted in the 2018-19 season
so goalie development in North America has sunk that low????

You know your goalies. Is Darcy Kuemper the highest rated Canadian at 15, or did I miss someone on the list?

Man how bad, I didn't realise.

1693339410966.png
 

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