Kopitar; For or Against a trade if it comes to it?

[damacles1156]

in an ideal world we want to see shot numbers go up, but let's be honest - he hasn't been a shoot-first guy lately, and now he's playing with probably the best two wingers he's ever had in Gaborik and Lucic, where he doesn't have to drive offense single handedly. I'm honestly going to be amazed if he breaks 20 goals, I'm seeing a real Thornton-esque statline coming from Kopitar next season.

I don't know if we should really fuss about his goal scoring that much - we know he's a threat WHEN he shoots - even if he's shooting less compared to past seasons, I'd be much more worried if his point total overall keeps trending downwards.

The point total's will keep going down, if Kopitar keeps passing so much.

Defenders will know (pass is coming).

Kopitar is not a good enough passer to notch 60 or 70+ assists. He needs to score goals, and keep Defenders honest. Already started seeing the effects of passive Kopitar last season. Defenders sagged off Kopitar big time in some games, waiting for a pass.

 

[KINGS17]

The point total's will keep going down, if Kopitar keeps passing so much.

Defenders will know (pass is coming).

Kopitar is not a good enough passer to notch 60 or 70+ assists. He needs to score goals, and keep Defenders honest. Already started seeing the effects of passive Kopitar last season. Defenders sagged off Kopitar big time in some games, waiting for a pass.

I agree. Kopitar is a fine playmaker, but he is no Joe Thornton. Kopitar doesn't have the same type of vision and passing ability.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

I agree. Kopitar is a fine playmaker, but he is no Joe Thornton. Kopitar doesn't have the same type of vision and passing ability.

But unlike Joe, he has a sack

 

[KINGS17]

But unlike Joe, he has a sack

True, but every time he passes up a shot or avoids taking the puck to the middle, it shrinks.

 

[Reclamation Project]

And real hardware.

 

[KINGS17]

Yes, Kopitar has won two cups. He was great especially in the 2012 playoffs, and I thought he put the team on his back in the 2014 San Jose series.

BUT...damacles1156 has a damn good point. Kopitar isn't a slick enough passer for his primary weapon to be passing. He needs to be a threat to take the puck to the net at all times. Guys like Gretzky, Oates, and Thornton can get away with being one-dimensional offensive players and still put up big points, but I don't think Kopitar is going to be a 15-goal, 60-assist player. He has to score goals to be at his most dangerous offensively.

 

[johnjm22]

Kopitar's skill set is more naturally suited to goal scoring rather than playmaking. He's at his best offensively when he's trying to generate scoring chances for HIMSELF, which can cause havoc for defenders and lead to scoring chances for his linemates.

He's not a playmaker in the traditional sense. He doesn't sense the play, anticipate, and dish in the same way Thornton/Oates/Gretzky would.

This is why no matter what linemates Kopitar has, his scoring doesn't change that much. He's been pegged as playmaker, and he's trying to be one, but I think it's counter productive. He needs to focus on goal scoring first and foremost.

 

[TopT]

Kopitar's skill set is more naturally suited to goal scoring rather than playmaking. He's at his best offensively when he's trying to generate scoring chances for HIMSELF, which can cause havoc for defenders and lead to scoring chances for his linemates.

He's not a playmaker in the traditional sense. He doesn't sense the play, anticipate, and dish in the same way Thornton/Oates/Gretzky would.

This is why no matter what linemates Kopitar has, his scoring doesn't change that much. He's been pegged as playmaker, and he's trying to be one, but I think it's counter productive. He needs to focus on goal scoring first and foremost.

unfortunately he is held back by his unselfishness

 

[damacles1156]

I thought Kopitar was the most dangerous player in the Western Conference in 09-10 season.

Kopitar scored 34G and added 47 assist 81P. Kopitar needs to get back to scoring goals.

 

[KINGS17]

I thought Kopitar was the most dangerous player in the Western Conference in 09-10 season.

Kopitar scored 34G and added 47 assist 81P. Kopitar needs to get back to scoring goals.

Anze Kopitar was at his peak offensively in 2009-10. It's now 2015, and one of the main points in this thread is that he simply can't perform at that level any longer. There is no shame in that as not many players can maintain that level of performance for a long period of time.

Kopitar is still a highly effective two-way center, but he isn't worth the 8-year, $72M+ contract that some here advocate giving him. The so-called experts that write articles for websites on the internet that say he is in his prime are simply wrong. The idea that he isn't scoring goals because he is unselfish is also hogwash. He defers and passes the puck because he can't get to a place on the ice where he himself is a scoring threat.

The idea that Kopitar can get that money somewhere else is just the "greater fool" theory in action.

 

[Trolfoli]

I can't believe Lombardi offered Kopitar that kind of money and term. There is no way he lives up to the contract!!! I wish Kopitar was traded, now he's just going to be a boat anchor with the size of that contract.


Too soon?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Anze Kopitar was at his peak offensively in 2009-10. It's now 2015, and one of the main points in this thread is that he simply can't perform at that level any longer. There is no shame in that as not many players can maintain that level of performance for a long period of time.

Kopitar is still a highly effective two-way center, but he isn't worth the 8-year, $72M+ contract that some here advocate giving him. The so-called experts that write articles for websites on the internet that say he is in his prime are simply wrong. The idea that he isn't scoring goals because he is unselfish is also hogwash. He defers and passes the puck because he can't get to a place on the ice where he himself is a scoring threat.

The idea that Kopitar can get that money somewhere else is just the "greater fool" theory in action.

Disagree.

You've walked back from saying he'll be declining into this 30s to saying he's declining now? I think he's going to shock you this year. He's 28, not 40.

 

[gnarls barkley]

the way Kopitar is talked about here you'd think he's Brad Richards or something

 

[Ollie Weeks]

Mike Richards has made us fear anyone approaching or over 30.

 

[KINGS17]

Disagree.

You've walked back from saying he'll be declining into this 30s to saying he's declining now? I think he's going to shock you this year. He's 28, not 40.

Brad, you have acknowledged the basic information that is out there regarding just about every forward that has ever played in the NHL, and how their offensive numbers reach their peak in their mid-twenties.

Why is Kopitar going to be any different? He doesn't appear to do anything special in the off season to be superhuman. He will continue to be well above average based on superior "God-given" talent for a while longer, but he is no longer in his prime.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Brad, you have acknowledged the basic information that is out there regarding just about every forward that has ever played in the NHL, and how their offensive numbers reach their peak in their mid-twenties.

Why is Kopitar going to be any different? He doesn't appear to do anything special in the off season to be superhuman. He will continue to be well above average based on superior "God-given" talent for a while longer, but he is no longer in his prime.

It's the suggestion that he can't perform at that level any longer that I'm bristling at. based on all we've looked at, most players retain 90% of their production thru age 29--so yes, it can be argued Kopi is in his prime right now (27-29), especially when, as you say, he brings a multitude of other talents to the table. Consider that Kopitar has been more consistent than just about any player in his realm, as well, both in production and health, and I think he can retain that longer than most.

Even if he follows the 'normal' trajectory that you're pointing out, and even if his other talents wane with that, he's still not out of his prime years for another couple of years. I don't think they all will, and that's been the subject of all this debate--if and when that will happen--but to consider THIS year as a downslide for him when they've hardly taken the ice is something I can't agree with.

Peak production, sure. However, I'd take a 75-point Kopitar that's the Selke candidate over the 81-point guy who was figuring things out anytime, but I still think Kopitar is easily capable of surpassing that year...whether he does it or not is a different question yet to be answered, but to say simply 'he can't'...it's too early for that.

 

[KINGS17]

the way Kopitar is talked about here you'd think he's Brad Richards or something

Not at all. Eight years is a long time, and $72M+ is a lot of money.

Big difference between Kopitar and Richards in terms of performance and money.

 

[HYORI 1963]

I can't believe Lombardi offered Kopitar that kind of money and term. There is no way he lives up to the contract!!! I wish Kopitar was traded, now he's just going to be a boat anchor with the size of that contract.


Too soon?

No, just not funny.

 

[KINGS17]

It's the suggestion that he can't perform at that level any longer that I'm bristling at. based on all we've looked at, most players retain 90% of their production thru age 29--so yes, it can be argued Kopi is in his prime right now (27-29), especially when, as you say, he brings a multitude of other talents to the table. Consider that Kopitar has been more consistent than just about any player in his realm, as well, both in production and health, and I think he can retain that longer than most.

Even if he follows the 'normal' trajectory that you're pointing out, and even if his other talents wane with that, he's still not out of his prime years for another couple of years. I don't think they all will, and that's been the subject of all this debate--if and when that will happen--but to consider THIS year as a downslide for him when they've hardly taken the ice is something I can't agree with.

Peak production, sure. However, I'd take a 75-point Kopitar that's the Selke candidate over the 81-point guy who was figuring things out anytime, but I still think Kopitar is easily capable of surpassing that year...whether he does it or not is a different question yet to be answered, but to say simply 'he can't'...it's too early for that.

I have never said anything specific about just this year. I have always written in broad terms about the next 8 years.

But I disagree with you on one point. In terms of his offensive numbers and game, Kopitar is no longer in his prime. You throw out the number 75 points like it easily within his reach, when it's not. He had 64 points last season, and 70 the season before that. The trend is not your friend. In all likelihood we will see a 55-point season from Kopitar before we see another 75-point season.

That's not saying he can't do it. That's saying it's highly unlikely.

 

[HYORI 1963]

Kopitar isn't a slick enough passer for his primary weapon to be passing. He needs to be a threat to take the puck to the net at all times. Guys like Gretzky, Oates, and Thornton can get away with being one-dimensional offensive players and still put up big points, but I don't think Kopitar is going to be a 15-goal, 60-assist player. He has to score goals to be at his most dangerous offensively.

That's actually a very good point about Kopi not being an elite assist man.

So, Kopi needs to be more like Carter. Works for me.

 

[gnarls barkley]

it's still more reasonable to expect a 20 goal 50 assist season going forwards than a 30 goal 40 assist season

it doesn't matter what other reasons there are - he's just NOT going to shoot as much when he has Lucic and Gaborik on a line with him.

this isn't 09-10 where he WAS the offense for the most part.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Not at all. Eight years is a long time, and $72M+ is a lot of money.

Big difference between Kopitar and Richards in terms of performance and money.

Richards actually signed his big deal at age 31 coming off a string of strong seasons--including potting 91, tied for his best, at age 29!--THEN we all know what happened next.

Agree there's a big difference, just contextualizing, kind of sad to watch him vaporize so quickly.

I have never said anything specific about just this year. I have always written in broad terms about the next 8 years.

But I disagree with you on one point. In terms of his offensive numbers and game, Kopitar is no longer in his prime. You throw out the number 75 points like it easily within his reach, when it's not. He had 64 points last season, and 70 the season before that. The trend is not your friend. In all likelihood we will see a 55-point season from Kopitar before we see another 75-point season.

That's not saying he can't do it. That's saying it's highly unlikely.

You literally said "Anze Kopitar was at his peak offensively in 2009-10. It's now 2015, and one of the main points in this thread is that he simply can't perform at that level any longer. There is no shame in that as not many players can maintain that level of performance for a long period of time." I took 'he simply can't perform at that level any longer' to mean now going forward, no?

I think we differ because I don't buy last year as a "trend" for anyone on this squad. I think 75 points is well within his reach, certainly much closer to that than 55 points for the foreseeable future. Especially rested, angry, and with good players. I'll happily wager a beer on that.

 

[cyclones22]

I think we differ because I don't buy last year as a "trend" for anyone on this squad. I think 75 points is well within his reach, certainly much closer to that than 55 points for the foreseeable future. Especially rested, angry, and with good players. I'll happily wager a beer on that.

Yep, I bet he scores 70+ again this season. His shooting percentage didn't dip last season. He was near his average and actually higher than previous years. Kopi simply fell in love with overpassing last season. His first real season with a legit sniper on his line for the majority of the time. Physically, he looks fine.

 

[Rusty Batch]

I'm just excited that we have a guy that is so good that even out of his prime he still leads the league in Corsi.

 

[Rusty Batch]

If your going to try to categorize kopitar as something, don't do it as a sniper, passer, two-way forward, etc... what he is is the most dominant puck possesion player in the nhl. That's his game, he dominates the puck and makes sure we have it and keeps the cycle going. He doesn't have to score or make slick passes to accomplish this. He just makes the smart play all the time and posses a unique blend of size and skill that allow him to accomplish his goal of having his team posses the puck and get more chances then the other.

He so consistently dominates in this facet of the game and really doesn't need to do anything else but that. He hasn't slipped at all in this area in fact he has been improving for the past 4 years in corsi. So keep talking about individual scoring, individual shot totals, or slick passing, but your not understanding what Kopitar is trying to accomplish on the ice and how that helps us win.