Player Discussion Kirby Dach: Welcome to Montreal

[1909]

Dude lol, this is a steal! KK is making 4.8 million next year

3.5 million for 4 years is amazing! I say give him even more term, make it 8 years!

Wat too much for way too long on a very unproven player

 

[yianik]

Nineteen goals / 59 points in 152 games does not point to 14 million over 4 years. There was no apparent jump in development.And it's not like he is some defensive stalwart or a physical machine. If serious , Hughes needs to be reminded which side of the table he sits on now.

Two year prove it deal sounds right.

 

[Tyson]

Nineteen goals / 59 points in 152 games does not point to 14 million over 4 years. There was no apparent jump in development.And it's not like he is some defensive stalwart or a physical machine. If serious , Hughes needs to be reminded which side of the table he sits on now.

Two year prove it deal sounds right.

4 year deal for a player who has proved very little is a bit much. I hope Hughes doesn't do this.

 

[themilosh]

I got that but Hughes is miles ahead in terms of offensive production, his faceoffs and whatever other shortcomings are much more easily overlooked.

Dach’s offensive numbers, his injuries and whether he’s had a full recovery, his failure to engage physically as an oversized player, his weak shot, his failure to improve despite playing with Kane and being taken under his wing and an across the board low faceoff success ratio from his junior days and throughout his NHL games, puts all of what he does, under fans’ microscopes.

If Dach had been producing offensive numbers like Hughes, no one would be looking as closely at his other shortcomings.

If Dach had been producing, we wouldnt have gotten him. Only way to get a young big C is to gamble.

 

[Runner77]

Some of you guys are really in denial about Dubois

Some of you guys don’t understand emojis. It was tongue-in-cheek.

 

[Runner77]

If Dach had been producing, we wouldnt have gotten him. Only way to get a young big C is to gamble.

Yup. However, that was just to make a point about how far fetched the comparison with Hughes really was.

 

[417]

Nineteen goals / 59 points in 152 games does not point to 14 million over 4 years. There was no apparent jump in development.And it's not like he is some defensive stalwart or a physical machine. If serious , Hughes needs to be reminded which side of the table he sits on now.

Two year prove it deal sounds right.

Contracts aren't always exclusively about what a player has done, especially not RFA deals.

You're paying for a projection. It's less about what he's done so far and more about what you think he will do.

That being said, I don't disagree that a 2 year deal seems to make more sense for both parties. But if they were to agree to a 4yr 3.5M/yr deal, I'd say that's a pretty solid deal in terms of cost certainty.

This is of course based on the premise that the Habs think he has more to offer, which of course, we'll see.

 

[417]

4 year deal for a player who has proved very little is a bit much. I hope Hughes doesn't do this.

Hughes clearly thinks Dach has some untapped potential...whether that proves true remains to be seen, but if you believe in the player and you think he can be a top 6 player, which we have to assume is the case otherwise they wouldn't have traded for him...getting him at 3.5M for the next 4 years seems like pretty good value to me.

RFA deals are largely leaps of faith, so that kind of contract for an unproven player isn't exactly uncommon.

Tage Thompson, who I've always liked as a player, just signed a 7yr deal @ 7.1M/yr.

He had 38 goals last year, which was amazing, but he had 18 goals total the previous 4 years.

That's just just the reality of these kind of deals.

 

[Runner77]

Hughes clearly thinks Dach has some untapped potential...whether that proves true remains to be seen, but if you believe in the player and you think he can be a top 6 player, which we have to assume is the case otherwise they wouldn't have traded for him...getting him at 3.5M for the next 4 years seems like pretty good value to me.

RFA deals are largely leaps of faith, so that kind of contract for an unproven player isn't exactly uncommon.

Tage Thompson, who I've always liked as a player, just signed a 7yr deal @ 7.1M/yr.

He had 38 goals last year, which was amazing, but he had 18 goals total the previous 4 years.

That's just just the reality of these kind of deals.

That 3.5M figure should turn to the Habs’ advantage as of Year 2, when the cap is projected to rise again as it did in pre-pandemic years, and so on for the subsequent years of the potential deal. That had to go into the structuring of that offer, if it is in fact what the parties are contemplating.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I wonder if the Habs structure it so that pay more now and less later to make it advantageous if they have to buy him out.

 

[RationalExpectations]

Hughes clearly thinks Dach has some untapped potential...whether that proves true remains to be seen, but if you believe in the player and you think he can be a top 6 player, which we have to assume is the case otherwise they wouldn't have traded for him...getting him at 3.5M for the next 4 years seems like pretty good value to me.

RFA deals are largely leaps of faith, so that kind of contract for an unproven player isn't exactly uncommon.

Tage Thompson, who I've always liked as a player, just signed a 7yr deal @ 7.1M/yr.

He had 38 goals last year, which was amazing, but he had 18 goals total the previous 4 years.

That's just just the reality of these kind of deals.

For me he has not achieved more than Kakko, 2x2.1 is the max he should get. If the Habs want to be able to take another Monahan like contract next year, this 1.4m could make a difference.

 

[tazsub3]

I wonder if the Habs structure it so that pay more now and less later to make it advantageous if they have to buy him out.

players his size and age are not bought out. even at 4.5 mill.
If they fail they get converted to a defensive role on 3rd/4th line
I am on record that he will prove to be a steal . But only time will tell

 

[Twisted Sinister]

I don't like the 4 year deal... The timing of it ending when we might start competing is bad. We should go either 2 or Kotkaniemi the situation if they have the inside track on a full recovery.

 

[ReHabs]

players his size and age are not bought out. even at 4.5 mill.
If they fail they get converted to a defensive role on 3rd/4th line
I am on record that he will prove to be a steal . But only time will tell

Is he at all reliable defensively?

He doesn’t use his size and can’t win face offs. He was undressed a few times in opponent’s highlight reels… not sure if he can even play a specialist Defensive C role.

 

[tazsub3]

Is he at all reliable defensively?

He doesn’t use his size and can’t win face offs. He was undressed a few times in opponent’s highlight reels… not sure if he can even play a specialist Defensive C role.

I am not saying he is. I am saying players with his size and that are young tend to me kept/recycled as d players.
Whether he is good at it or not is debatable. But he has the body that can make him serviceable on the 4th line and thus wont be bought out. (my reply was in regards to being bought out if he fails to becoming an impact player as some like me think and hope)

 

[ReHabs]

I am not saying he is. I am saying players with his size and that are young tend to me kept/recycled as d players.
Whether he is good at it or not is debatable. But he has the body that can make him serviceable on the 4th line and thus wont be bought out. (my reply was in regards to being bought out if he fails to becoming an impact player as some like me think and hope)

4th lines should be paid up to 4.5-5m total between the three of them. Dach will be bought out if he’s useless, the cap penalty will be tiny.

 

[Weltschmerz]

That being said, I don't disagree that a 2 year deal seems to make more sense for both parties. But if they were to agree to a 4yr 3.5M/yr deal, I'd say that's a pretty solid deal in terms of cost certainty.

Could be tricky withthat cost certainty, the next 2 years the cap won't go up more than a million per year and there won't be huge RFA contracts as comparable, even if he does well, so the long term contract could be ok.

In 4 years the cap will have started to go up and the RFA madness with big contracts will have started again.

 

[417]

For me he has not achieved more than Kakko, 2x2.1 is the max he should get. If the Habs want to be able to take another Monahan like contract next year, this 1.4m could make a difference.

Again...you're missing the main point.

It's not about what he's achieved so far as much as it's about what you're projecting for him be be during that period.

If the Rangers and Kaako had agreed to a 4 year deal, the numbers wouldn't be at 2.1M like his 2 year deal.

They'd be right around 3.5M like what we're hearing for Dach.

Could be tricky withthat cost certainty, the next 2 years the cap won't go up more than a million per year and there won't be huge RFA contracts as comparable, even if he does well, so the long term contract could be ok.

Yeah but the Habs have alot of money coming off the books or scheduled to come off the books by then (new contracts notwithstanding).

In 4 years the cap will have started to go up and the RFA madness with big contracts will have started again.

I don't think carrying that kind of cap hit over 4 years is going to be difficult to carry IMO.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

players his size and age are not bought out. even at 4.5 mill.
If they fail they get converted to a defensive role on 3rd/4th line
I am on record that he will prove to be a steal . But only time will tell

Usually not, but Colin White is a recent example as to what might happen. Difference is White had a good season, then got the contract, so it's not impossible that he gets this contract and could potentially struggle and be bought out.

That said, 3.5 isn't a lot and assuming the Habs project well and they might need that money, it wouldn't be too expensive to ship him out with a pick and/or prospect.

 

[BLONG7]

I would rather a two year deal..................1.9M per
Show me kind of deal.
Yes, it could cost us, but at least we are paying for results.

 

[Gustave]

Le monde chiale sur le possible 3.5 de Dach mais dans la LNH les gars de 3ème trios gagne ce salaire donc au final selon moi le pire qui pourrait arriver c'est qu'il serait un peu surpayé et le mieux c'est qu'il se développe bien et devienne une aubaine rapidement.

En plus, selon les rumeurs, la masse va faire un gros bond dans 2 ans donc 3.5 sera très peu.

I get your point but I guess the counter point has more to do with this scenario; is Dach a 3C or is he a player you slot into the 3C spot because you hope to see become a 3C with maybe upside to 2C?

It’s more of a philosophy question more than a direct evaluation of cap allocated to 3C. Like KK for example, he’s right now paid like a 3c/2c upside but can’t hold his own and gets ice time on the 4c only because he’s being paid for the next decade. Rusty Olesz was paid like that if you remember, didn’t end well.

Some like to pay for what a player actually brings, others like to take a chance to get a player on a rebate further down the road.

Personally, I like to do that with high expectancy players (Mack (easiest example), Suzuki, Price (1), Gally (1), etc) and don’t like it with lower expectancy players ( KK, Dach etc).

The Subban observers were right at the time because he was a high expectancy player so the small bridge was a mistake. The first «big» Price contract was a great contract if you want an example of what I also like.

 

[superdee]

I am not saying he is. I am saying players with his size and that are young tend to me kept/recycled as d players.
Whether he is good at it or not is debatable. But he has the body that can make him serviceable on the 4th line and thus wont be bought out. (my reply was in regards to being bought out if he fails to becoming an impact player as some like me think and hope)

Won't have to. Suzuki will be playing against the opponents top Dee pairing. This kid was force fed because of Toews illness. No team puts a junior age center on top line. Even generational talents like Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid got eased in . The kid was playing hurt and playing against the other teams top line and defense. Brilliant trade in my opinion.

 

[417]

4th lines should be paid up to 4.5-5m total between the three of them. Dach will be bought out if he’s useless, the cap penalty will be tiny.

Salaries aren't tied to positions on the roster.

 

[yianik]

Contracts aren't always exclusively about what a player has done, especially not RFA deals.

You're paying for a projection. It's less about what he's done so far and more about what you think he will do.

That being said, I don't disagree that a 2 year deal seems to make more sense for both parties. But if they were to agree to a 4yr 3.5M/yr deal, I'd say that's a pretty solid deal in terms of cost certainty.

This is of course based on the premise that the Habs think he has more to offer, which of course, we'll see.

I agree that contracts are based on expectation. I am okay with what Suzuki signed for as we can see the climb in performance and fair to see him as at least a 2C.

With Dach that's why I said there doesn't seem to have been an improvement in development. I mean sure they could be projecting him as a great 2C in which case it would be a steal. But at this point they seem to be the only ones having this belief, and it's unclear on what they base it on.

 

[417]

I agree that contracts are based on expectation. I am okay with what Suzuki signed for as we can see the climb in performance and fair to see him as at least a 2C.

But even Suzuki...he'd going to be making 7.8M next year, he's not likely to provide the immediate value on that deal in the short term, but the bet is he will through most of that deal.

He'll be making more than double what Dach is on a longer term. So by scale, I think the deal makes sense financially if you're going 4 years.

With Dach that's why I said there doesn't seem to have been an improvement in development. I mean sure they could be projecting him as a great 2C in which case it would be a steal. But at this point they seem to be the only ones having this belief, and it's unclear on what they base it on.

We'll agreed there hasn't been a marked improvement in his development, if there was, he wouldn't have been available.

But the Habs clearly think they can get him there.

I also don't think theyre the only ones who have that belief, I think anyone would have been way happier if Dachbwss acquired at this point last year, can so much change in 12 months?

Maybe...but I think there's alot to work with here, he's one of the players I'm most.looking forward to watching at camp.