LeBrun: Kings want 1st-round pick, prospect for Muzzin

[Habs Halifax]

Definitely Ylonen, if I was Blake.

Btw Habs fans did not only want a 1st but Vilardi too, as icing on the cake.

Patch has different value in a sign and trade vs as a one year rental. Same goes for Muzzin. Maybe you can put a conditional pick added if he re-signs. Habs didn't even get the 1st they were asking for with Patch and that was a sign and trade.

I feel teams will offer the 1st and a b Prospect or a Grade A prospect and a 2nd. Getting both is on steep price to pay for a top 4D with 1.5 years left. I guess McDonagh returned the Rangers a 1st, Howden, Hajek, and a conditional 2nd. How much better is McDonagh vs Muzzin?

 

[Habs Halifax]

I like all of 1st + Ylonen OR Juulsen as well as 1st + Addison OR Hallander. Would also be okay with 1st + Liljegren.

If I were to rank them per package:
1st + Ylonen
1st + Juulsen
1st + Addison
1st + Liljegren
1st + Hallander

Any other offered packages I either overlooked, forgot, or didn't like.

Take the 1st + Liljegren if the Leafs offer you this. Habs will not trade their 1st. If the Leafs deal falls through, circle back and we can see if Ylonen and two 2nd's works. If not, try on draft day. If that don't work, try the sign and trade option like the Habs did with Patch.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

OK, so its Lebrun, not a Leafs fan, who makes the claim, and also the asking price.

So the asking price is repeatedly "met", with different variations, and a couple posters are all like "rah no we want more"

Kind of odd.

That's because "1st and a prospect" doesn't mean "lowest possible permutation of those terms." It's like people are trying as hard as they can to offer the 31st overall pick + their worst prospect that they can live without and pretending it's honest, good faith discussion just because it 'meets the asking price.'

 

[tomd]

Patch has different value in a sign and trade vs as a one year rental. Same goes for Muzzin. Maybe you can put a conditional pick added if he re-signs. Habs didn't even get the 1st they were asking for with Patch and that was a sign and trade.

I feel teams will offer the 1st and a b Prospect or a Grade A prospect and a 2nd. Getting both is on steep price to pay for a top 4D with 1.5 years left. I guess McDonagh returned the Rangers a 1st, Howden, Hajek, and a conditional 2nd. How much better is McDonagh vs Muzzin?

Didn’t the Lightning also get TJ Miller?

 

[Rob Brown]

Didn’t the Lightning also get TJ Miller?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Patch has different value in a sign and trade vs as a one year rental. Same goes for Muzzin. Maybe you can put a conditional pick added if he re-signs. Habs didn't even get the 1st they were asking for with Patch and that was a sign and trade.

I feel teams will offer the 1st and a b Prospect or a Grade A prospect and a 2nd. Getting both is on steep price to pay for a top 4D with 1.5 years left. I guess McDonagh returned the Rangers a 1st, Howden, Hajek, and a conditional 2nd. How much better is McDonagh vs Muzzin?

Muzzin is somewhere between McDonagh and Shattenkirk, and Shatty returned a 1st, a conditional 2nd, and 2nd round prospect.

That's why all this "low first plus mediocre prospect" stuff is bunk. Hard first, and a real good prospect, possibly plus.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Didn’t the Lightning also get TJ Miller?

Yes but the Rangers also got Namestnikov. Who do you value more? Seems like a wash to me. That's why I didn't mention it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Muzzin is somewhere between McDonagh and Shattenkirk, and Shatty returned a 1st, a conditional 2nd, and 2nd round prospect.

That's why all this "low first plus mediocre prospect" stuff is bunk. Hard first, and a real good prospect, possibly plus.

Forgot about Shattenkirk. I don't think you can call the low first and mediocre prospect bunk. Patch should of got a 1st and he didn't. There is zero things you can tell me that says Muzzin has more value than Patch and Patch was a sign and trade type return. The issue with Patch is I think only a select few amount of teams were in on him which limit the return.

It comes down to supply and demand that sets the price for each player. If several teams want Muzzin, like they did with McDonagh, then the price gets significant. How many teams have shown interest in Muzzin will tell you a lot in terms of setting his value? Leafs but they are after a RD and the Habs who are after a LD? Who else? Haven't paid attention in all 19 threads to figure out who all interested.

It says a 1st and a prospect. Doesn't say middle 1st and grade A prospect. If the Leafs offer their 1st and Liljegren, I think you should take it if you are drolling over a 25-30 range 1st instead of two 2nd's from the Habs around 50 range. Ylonen is also trending better than Liljegen at the moment too.

- Ylonen (taken 35th OA) and is trending well. He's the closest value to a 1st you will find that the Habs would offer. Two 2nd's around 50 range. I know you want our 1st but it's not on the table. Best we can offer is Ylonen as the 1st round value and two more 2nd's. Some Habs fans say no too so not even sure Bergevin is willing to make this move.

 

[tomd]

Yes but the Rangers also got Namestnikov. Who do you value more? Seems like a wash to me.

Only if you consider McDonough = Muzzin which I doubt many outside of LA would agree with. At the time of their respective trades, both McDonough and Shattenkirk were better players than Muzzin.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Only if you consider McDonough = Muzzin which I doubt many outside of LA would agree with. At the time of their respective trades, both McDonough and Shattenkirk were better players than Muzzin.

McDonough > Muzzin. I think most agree with this. When Muzzin is compared to Shattenkirk (before he was traded by the Blues), I think Shattenkirk also has more value. Not throwing Muzzin under the bus but he is not trending well like Patch did. He has Petry value but one year less in term.

Muzzin to me is like a Petry. The 1st and prospect is not a terrible asking price. But there are many different forms of a 1st and the prospect. I doubt the Kings get a 1st and a grade A prospect trending well. If the 1st is mid range, the prospect is B type. If the prospect is A type, the 1st is late 1st at best.

I will eat crow if I'm wrong but if Muzzin is traded before the deadline, I bet you Ylonen and the two 2nd's compare in value and possible more in value than what the Kings get.

 

[Osprey]

Muzzin has been the best defenseman on the Kings this year. Plays in all situations. And well. Is plus 9, best on team, that has a minus 37 goal differential!

It's golfnut, isn't it? Long time, no see.

There's no doubt that Muzzin is having one of his best seasons, but I think that it's really important to factor in Quality of Competition before deciding if someone has been the best on the team. After all, if you're receiving relatively easy minutes, can you really be the best? As I pointed out earlier (but couldn't be bothered at the time to substantiate), Muzzin faces the easiest competition of LA's top 4. I'll get to the graph of that in a moment, but I'll start with 2016-17 to illustrate the difference that it makes.

In 2016-17, Muzzin faced the 2nd-highest Quality of Competition out of LA's D, only a hair behind Doughty. That year ended up being the worst season of his career and he finished with a team-lowest -21.
View media item 3825(Data courtesy of Hockey Abstract)

In 2017-18, he faced substantially easier competition (5th amongst defensemen on the team) and had a bounce-back season, finishing with a +10:
View media item 3827(Data courtesy of Hockey Abstract)

In 2018-19 (this year), his Quality of Competition has remained around 4th or 5th lowest:
View media item 3829(Data courtesy of Hockey Abstract)

Again, this isn't to discount the good season that Muzzin has had, but can we really say that he's been the "best defenseman on the team" when the data prove that he's been getting relatively easy minutes? Put another way, if usages were switched, would Muzzin's season still seem so stellar if he were receiving the toughest minutes and would Doughty's stats not look much better if he were the one receiving the 4th-easiest minutes?

 

[member 88115]

Take the 1st + Liljegren if the Leafs offer you this. Habs will not trade their 1st. If the Leafs deal falls through, circle back and we can see if Ylonen and two 2nd's works. If not, try on draft day. If that don't work, try the sign and trade option like the Habs did with Patch.

If the Habs don't want to give up their 1st, the prospect has to be better than Ylonen. Patches didn't get a 1st rounder, but he did get the 13 pick from the 2017 Draft. Now we can argue about value about Patches and Muzzin, but its very close and Muzzin is not struggling now or last year unlike Patches

 

[tomd]

McDonough > Muzzin. I think most agree with this. When Muzzin is compared to Shattenkirk (before he was traded by the Blues), I think he also has more value.

Muzzin to me is like a Petry. The 1st and prospect is not a terrible asking price. But there are many different forms of a 1st and the prospect. I doubt the Kings get a 1st and a grade A prospect trending well. If the 1st is mid range, the prospect is B type. If the prospect is A type, the 1st is late 1st.

I largely agree but the 1st will almost certainly be in the 23-31 range since I don't think a bubble team will trade a 1st for him (but we'll see). I think the prospect will be a B prospect (probably 6-10 on the team's list) along with the late 1st.

 

[Deuce Awesome]

That's why all this "low first plus mediocre prospect" stuff is bunk. Hard first, and a real good prospect, possibly plus.

First, fine no prob.

Real good prospect? The only two that are hard to pry out of here are Lil and Sandin, and thats only because they fill a spot where we have a massive hole. Anyone else Im down. If it has to be one of those two, Im out, only for the reason stated above.

Im not sure what names have been thrown about in the thread but those are the only two I would prefer to keep, unless it was for a top tier guy. Which won't be available.

 

[tomd]

If the Habs don't want to give up their 1st, the prospect has to be better than Ylonen. Patches didn't get a 1st rounder, but he did get the 13 pick from the 2017 Draft. Now we can argue about value about Patches and Muzzin, but its very close and Muzzin is not struggling now or last year unlike Patches

I think any trades involving Vegas need to be viewed as outliers (specifically the Tartar and Patches trades). Vegas had multiple 1st's to deal as well as many prospects taken in the last draft. Most teams aren't in that position.

 

[SensFactor]

1st, Bracco, Liljegren for Muzzin?

 

[member 88115]

I think any trades involving Vegas need to be viewed as outliers (specifically the Tartar and Patches trades). Vegas had multiple 1st's to deal as well as many prospects taken in the last draft. Most teams aren't in that position.

What is your course of action with Muzzin?

 

[tomd]

What is your course of action with Muzzin?

my personal feeling is that the Kings should keep Muzzin since I think Blake would still prefer a retool to a rebuild. The Kings organizational depth on defense is just horrid and that is something that will takes years to repair if Muzzin is traded. I know the counter view is for the Kings to be as bad as possible for as long as possible and they have no problem icing AHL level talent at NHL level prices...as if that will fly in the LA market. Blake definitely has his work cut out for him.

 

[Osprey]

my personal feeling is that the Kings should keep Muzzin since I think Blake would still prefer a retool to a rebuild. The Kings organizational depth on defense is just horrid and that is something that will takes years to repair if Muzzin is traded. I know the counter view is for the Kings to be as bad as possible for as long as possible and they have no problem icing AHL level talent at NHL level prices...as if that will fly in the LA market. Blake definitely has his work cut out for him.

Would you keep him even though it would mean re-signing him to $6-7M until his mid-30s? It's easy to simply argue that they need him as a player for the next few years, but do they need another rich contract for an over-30yo (especially one enjoying a career year and liable to regress)?

 

[zeke]

I think it's a bit of a pipe dream to think you can get mid 1st round pick who's excelling in top AHL duty at 19yrs old like Liljegren for muzzin.

A 2nd round pick like Bracco, ppg in the AHL at 21, is probably more in the right wheelhouse of "prospect" included in this deal.

 

[tomd]

Would you keep him even though it would mean re-signing him to $6-7M until his mid-30s? It's easy to simply argue that they need him as a player for the next few years, but do they need another rich contract for an over-30yo?

That is the price they are now paying for having no prospects ready to step in. Even if they trade Muzzin now, they are going to have to replace him with fairly legitimate NHL talent which will cost at least what they are paying Muzzin now and that player will likely be just as old. Again, if the approach is rebuild then sell him off. If retool, then he is one of the guys that has to be considered part of the core. Can't make it simpler than that.

 

[Osprey]

That is the price they are now paying for having no prospects ready to step in. Even if they trade Muzzin now, they are going to have to replace him with fairly legitimate NHL talent which will cost at least what they are paying Muzzin now and that player will likely be just as old. Again, if the approach is rebuild then sell him off. If retool, then he is one of the guys that has to be considered part of the core. Can't make it simpler than that.

That's the point. It would be a continuation of the ideology that got them into this mess. The fact that they've been spinning their wheels because they've gotten old and top heavy isn't an excuse to get older and more top heavy. Even if they re-tool, it likely won't be a successful re-tool if they just repeat the mistakes that got them into this situation. Instead of giving up good, young assets for veterans (which passing on trading Muzzin would also be), they have a chance to do the opposite for once. It's the only way that they're going to break the cycle, IMO.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think it's a bit of a pipe dream to think you can get mid 1st round pick who's excelling in top AHL duty at 19yrs old like Liljegren for muzzin.

A 2nd round pick like Bracco, ppg in the AHL at 21, is probably more in the right wheelhouse of "prospect" included in this deal.

Frankly I think it's a bit of a pipe-dream that a top-pairing d-man will come cheap, especially one signed to a sweetheart contract like Muzzin.

I get not wanting to give up Liljegren, but consider the trading side, as well.

 

[zeke]

Frankly I think it's a bit of a pipe-dream that a top-pairing d-man will come cheap, especially one signed to a sweetheart contract like Muzzin.

I get not wanting to give up Liljegren, but consider the trading side, as well.

1st round pick plus a 2nd rounder ppg AHLer doesn't seem too cheap to me.

 

[tomd]

That's the point. It would be a continuation of the ideology that got them into this mess. The fact that they've been spinning their wheels because they've gotten old and top heavy isn't an excuse to get older and more top heavy. Even if they re-tool, it likely won't be a successful re-tool if they just repeat the mistakes that got them into this situation. Instead of giving up good, young assets for veterans, they have a chance to do the opposite. It's the only way that they're going to break the cycle, IMO.

I agree that that is a legitimate approach but I'm not sure that Blake & Co. want to go down that long and winding road. Once started, they can't go back. Much easier for Blake to try to make some smart additions/subtractions over the summer and keep all the draft choices going forward and gradually restock the team without decimating it. If you do it the other way, you're looking at crowds of 10-12,000 for the next few years and that won't make the accountants happy. And yes, the accountants matter too. We won't know what the right direction will be for probably 4-6 years from now. In hindsight, it may look very different from what it looks like now. Kind of like how 2014 looks now with hindsight.