Rumor: KINGS 2018-19 Season- Luc/Rob ****Show/ Sell Everyone!! Part 3

[redcard]

Open thread.

See lots of paragraphs.

Read paragraphs or make joke?

Make joke.

Which is scary, most days I can't even read my own mind

that's because of all the blank pages.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

And now I'm surrounded by straw men.

I don't at all complain about Kopitar's second contract, which was fair value and brought us two Cups during its lifetime.

Ovechkin's multiple contracts have brought the Capitals years of legitimate contention. The Capitals have missed the playoffs THREE times in the past 13 years. In those 13 years, they have made it out of the first round 7 times. So yes, I would say Ovechkin’s contracts have brought the Capitals pretty damn good value.

Stamkos is on a much better deal than Kopitar. No comparison. We’ll see what happens with the Oilers through the remainder of McDavid’s deal. But if you want to compare Kopitar to the best player in the world, go right on ahead.

The only insanity here is your attempted justifications of paying a 36 year old center $10 million in 23/24.

And yes, I am setting a scenario in which the Kings will be strapped down by horrific contracts in 2023. Do the Kings win a Cup in 2012 if Lombardi gives Mike Cammalleri a huge contract in 2009? What about that rumored Drury deal in the summer of 2007?

Long term contracts have long term consequences for contending teams. Your failure to see that is telling.

It's really easy to say that now with the benefit of his recovery but keep in mind Stamkos had plenty of question marks, too, including a season of his own that made people question him the way some here questioned Kopitar, on top of the injuries, and in addition there's still a fair question of whether he can produce on his own after riding shotgun with superstars on his wing throughout his career (St. louis, now Kucherov, with his down years coming in between).

Beyond that 1.5 million dollars isn't the difference in 'broken' vs. 'not broken' so I feel like you're making a mountain out of a molehill with the difference between their contracts but even so there are already a ton of players making more than Kopitar. This is similar to when people freaked out about Doughty making SEVEN MILLION?!?!?! only for it to end up a middle of the road contract for a top-pairing d-man. In several years, 2C Kopitar making 10 million won't be the reason this roster isn't competitive. We're already getting there now, where 10m is the middle of the road for a cup winning 1C. As recently as last year it was fair value, this year it looks like garbage, I'm willing to bet reality--next year--is somewhere in the middle and that Kopitar isn't dead.

WRT to roster construction because I think that's your bigger point--K17 has long been asking for us to integrate cheap skilled youth. Well, now's the time. And by the time they're ready to be paid, we'll be fine on cap space. I just don't see the imminent destruction in 2023 that you're seeing, there are too many scenarios and too many moving parts to say anything like that definitively unless you're counting on Kopitar becoming a 40 point shell and the cap shrinking.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

If I told you before 2012 that the Kings would win 2 Stanley Cups and have 3 straight deep playoff runs, but would be worst in the league in 2019 due to the core of those championships declining, would you take that? This is the result of the risks taken to win those cups. Some of the moves worked out, most didn't towards the end, but in a league driven on parity most teams are only a few seasons away from being in the basement. I'd rather a slightly longer time in the basement anyways. Might as well go for broke.

The thing is, I think everyone expected this at this point. It's the how that's maddening. Like, 2018 was theoretically the year we'd be awful, then Kopitar and Doughty went off and did superstar things. Now they're not, and we're having the year we thought we'd have before, only with the superstars struggling.

But I agree that a big picture analysis finds us right freakin here.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

It's really easy to say that now with the benefit of his recovery but keep in mind Stamkos had plenty of question marks, too, including a season of his own that made people question him the way some here questioned Kopitar, on top of the injuries, and in addition there's still a fair question of whether he can produce on his own after riding shotgun with superstars on his wing throughout his career (St. louis, now Kucherov, with his down years coming in between).

Beyond that 1.5 million dollars isn't the difference in 'broken' vs. 'not broken' so I feel like you're making a mountain out of a molehill with the difference between their contracts but even so there are already a ton of players making more than Kopitar. This is similar to when people freaked out about Doughty making SEVEN MILLION?!?!?! only for it to end up a middle of the road contract for a top-pairing d-man. In several years, 2C Kopitar making 10 million won't be the reason this roster isn't competitive. We're already getting there now, where 10m is the middle of the road for a cup winning 1C. As recently as last year it was fair value, this year it looks like garbage, I'm willing to bet reality--next year--is somewhere in the middle and that Kopitar isn't dead.

WRT to roster construction because I think that's your bigger point--K17 has long been asking for us to integrate cheap skilled youth. Well, now's the time. And by the time they're ready to be paid, we'll be fine on cap space. I just don't see the imminent destruction in 2023 that you're seeing, there are too many scenarios and too many moving parts to say anything like that definitively unless you're counting on Kopitar becoming a 40 point shell and the cap shrinking.

The cap shrinking or at the very least stagnating is a very real possibility with the US economy on the verge of another huge downturn.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The cap shrinking or at the very least stagnating is a very real possibility with the US economy on the verge of another huge downturn.

Well then everyone else is screwed too, no?

 

[SettlementRichie10]

That's fine that you advocated elsewhere that you would have rather not re-signed him. My only issue and the single thing we have been arguing about this whole time is regarding your advocation for Visnovsky-ing him. Also, are you blaming the two playoff-less years on Kopitars making 3 million more? What role do you think his contract played in us being unable to ice a better team? Did we lose anyone due to his contract? The reason this team is a dumpster fire this year is because the Kings wisely decided to go all in while they had a cup window open. This led to 3 deep playoff runs and 2 Stanley Cups. I don't agree with all fo the moves(Lucic), but there was always going to be consequences for attempting to capitalize on a cup window. A part of that is keeping your number 1 center, who provided a Hart nominated season, that will obviously decline at some point along the contract.

I can’t have a discussion with you if you keep straw manning.

If you don’t want to pull a Visnovsky with Kopitar, that’s fine. I said from the very beginning it would be “dirty business.” But there’s no doubt the team would be in a much better long term cap situation without Kopitar’s $10 million boat anchor of a contract. This is irrefutable.

Again, you continue to evade the real problem here, which are years 21/22, 22/23, and 23/24. $3 million more cap space during prime rebuilding years (16/17 - 18/19) doesn’t particularly matter. But $10 million more cap space in 21/22 - 23/24 absolutely will.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Well then everyone else is screwed too, no?

Everyone who is paying double digit cap hits to 35+ year old players is screwed, yes.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Everyone who is paying double digit cap hits to 35+ year old players is screwed, yes.

Nonsense......if the cap is shrinking, every team except maybe Ottawa is royally screwed.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Everyone who is paying double digit cap hits to 35+ year old players is screwed, yes.

Dang, better go tell last year's stanley cup champs to turn their cup back in.

Edit: I'm mostly just busting your chops but such an economic doomsday scenario hurts everyone not just the Kings.

 

[crassbonanza]

I can’t have a discussion with you if you keep straw manning.

If you don’t want to pull a Visnovsky with Kopitar, that’s fine. I said from the very beginning it would be “dirty business.” But there’s no doubt the team would be in a much better long term cap situation without Kopitar’s $10 million boat anchor of a contract. This is irrefutable.

Again, you continue to evade the real problem here, which are years 21/22, 22/23, and 23/24. $3 million more cap space during prime rebuilding years (16/17 - 18/19) doesn’t particularly matter. But $10 million more cap space in 21/22 - 23/24 absolutely will.

I'm a little confused what straw mans you see me building up to attack? Because the only thing I have attacked is the notion that we should have pulled a Visnovsky on Kopitar, which you clearly did. I'm actually not concerned about 21/22 - 23/24 because I can't tell you where this team will be. Who will be available as a free agent, who will be taking up cap space on the team, how much we will have to spend, etc. What I can tell you is that the cap is likely to be significantly higher at that point in time. Legalized gambling is predicted to have a large bump, while the new TV deal coming around 2021 should also create a significant spike.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Nobody is trading him unless it was Summer of '16-to-deadline-of-'16.

You still get a nice package for him in Summer '16 even if it is for only one season guaranteed prior to UFA.

He was a UFA after the 15-16 season.

 

[BigKing]

If I told you before 2012 that the Kings would win 2 Stanley Cups and have 3 straight deep playoff runs, but would be worst in the league in 2019 due to the core of those championships declining, would you take that? This is the result of the risks taken to win those cups. Some of the moves worked out, most didn't towards the end, but in a league driven on parity most teams are only a few seasons away from being in the basement. I'd rather a slightly longer time in the basement anyways. Might as well go for broke.

Of course, but you also wouldn't expect them to do absolutely f***ing nothing for four seasons after the last Cup before cratering to the worst team in the league while not appearing to have a bright future anytime soon.

We didn't have to make that bargain so it didn't have to be this way, although the going for it led to a depleted pipeline when coupled with missing on picks they were fortunate to hit earlier on in the 2nd-4th rounds.

That is where I come in on Blake. He took the core out for two more spins after they had already shit the bed. That's the crux of the argument that is going on except today it is Kopitar. Tomorrow it will be Carter or Doughty. It didn't necessarily have to be this way and there are those on here that saw it coming. As I've said ad nauseam, Blake desperately needs to get an impact player out of this abortion of a season to try and make-up for his inactivity towards refreshing this roster over his first two off-seasons.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Dang, better go tell last year's stanley cup champs to turn their cup back in.

Edit: I'm mostly just busting your chops but such an economic doomsday scenario hurts everyone not just the Kings.

Please name a 35 year+ player on the 17/18 Capitals making $10 million or more.

Of course it hurts everyone. But it hurts teams with bad contracts much, much more.

 

[BigKing]

He was a UFA after the 15-16 season.

That's right. My bad.

Yeah, they weren't going to trade him. Nobody would have.

 

[KingsHockey24]

Anyone know who the player on the far right is? I can't tell.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I'm a little confused what straw mans you see me building up to attack? Because the only thing I have attacked is the notion that we should have pulled a Visnovsky on Kopitar, which you clearly did. I'm actually not concerned about 21/22 - 23/24 because I can't tell you where this team will be. Who will be available as a free agent, who will be taking up cap space on the team, how much we will have to spend, etc. What I can tell you is that the cap is likely to be significantly higher at that point in time. Legalized gambling is predicted to have a large bump, while the new TV deal coming around 2021 should also create a significant spike.

Your latest straw man was “3 million more in cap space wouldn’t have mattered over these last couple of years anyway.” This is not at all related to the long term cap health of the team, which is the foundation of my argument.

“I’m not concerned about a huge cap hit five years from now” is, again, why we’re in our current predicament: a terrible team filled with overpaid, aging players who cannot contend, and who also cannot be traded to re-coup assets and accelerate a rebuild.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Nonsense......if the cap is shrinking, every team except maybe Ottawa is royally screwed.

Teams paying huge cap hits to players ACTUALLY IN THEIR f***ING PRIMES would be in a much better situation than those paying huge cap hits to has-been superstars.

 

[crassbonanza]

Your latest straw man was “3 million more in cap space wouldn’t have mattered over these last couple of years anyway.” This is not at all related to the long term cap health of the team, which is the foundation of my argument.

“I’m not concerned about a huge cap hit five years from now” is, again, why we’re in our current predicament: a terrible team filled with overpaid, aging players who cannot contend, and who also cannot be traded to re-coup assets and accelerate a rebuild.

That isn't a strawman though? A strawman is building up an argument that you did not make to attack. You are very concerned about Kopitar's contract and how it has affected the team since he signed it. I am asking how his contract affected the Kings negatively over the past 2 seasons. The reason we are in the current predicament is they took a calculated risk to maximize their chances while the cup window is open. We were going to eventually need to re-tool/rebuild and there was no guarantee that we would have anywhere near the same level of talent when we came out of it. This is why teams trade 1st rounders at the deadline.

 

[deaderhead28]

I'd rather have one of the best players in the league than not have one of them.

1st overall doesn't guarantee one of the best players in the league and neither does actually having one of the best players in the league guarantee results; however, the horrific management of the McDavid Oilers doesn't mean anyone should rather pick 12th instead of 1st.

I can say this as a guarantee: The Kings don't have two Cups right now without finishing last in '08 and taking Doughty at #2OA. Hawks don't have **** without getting Toews and then winning the lottery and getting Kane at #1OA. There are examples both ways but, at the end of the day, picking earlier is always better than later: you just have to pick correctly. You should have a lower bust rate at #1OA then at #11OA etc.

There were many factors on why the Kings won two cups,and it's not all because of Doughty.John Hoven is right.Many trades and other King drafted players were also a major part not just one player.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

That isn't a strawman though? A strawman is building up an argument that you did not make to attack. You are very concerned about Kopitar's contract and how it has affected the team since he signed it. I am asking how his contract affected the Kings negatively over the past 2 seasons. The reason we are in the current predicament is they took a calculated risk to maximize their chances while the cup window is open. We were going to eventually need to re-tool/rebuild and there was no guarantee that we would have anywhere near the same level of talent when we came out of it. This is why teams trade 1st rounders at the deadline.

You’re strawmanning RIGHT NOW.

I said three posts ago that the primary problem with Kopitar’s contract were years 21/22 - 23/24. Can you not f***ing read?

The only reason I even addressed 16/17 - 18/19 was because you brought them up as some shining example of Kopitar’s worth to the team, which is ludicrous.

 

[crassbonanza]

You’re strawmanning RIGHT NOW.

I said three posts ago that the primary problem with Kopitar’s contract were years 21/22 - 23/24. Can you not ****ing read?

The only reason I even addressed 16/17 - 18/19 was because you brought them up as some shining example of Kopitar’s worth to the team, which is ludicrous.

For 21/22 the Kings currently have 38 million in cap, in 22/23 the Kings have 27 million in cap, and in 23/24 the Kings have 21 million in cap. Let's assume that the cap continues to climb at the recent pace, the cap in those years will be ~94 million, ~98 million and ~102 million. This is not counting any additional bumps from the new TV deal and legalize gambling. I'm not sure how we will be handicapped at that point in time, they will be flush with cap space and the current team has no young players on an ELC who will be looking for a big contract. Again, this whole conversation started because I didn't want Kopitar to be Visnovsky'ed.

 

[BigKing]

There were many factors on why the Kings won two cups,and it's not all because of Doughty.John Hoven is right.Many trades and other King drafted players were also a major part not just one player.

Cool. It's easy to be right when stating the obvious.

Would you rather pick higher or lower?

Of course there are multiple factors, but one of the Top 3 is the guy they drafted #2 overall. Another key factor was trading a guy they picked 5th overall.

Odds wise, the best thing for the Kings to do is finish as low as possible. This isn't hard.

 

[KINGS17]

The cap shrinking or at the very least stagnating is a very real possibility with the US economy on the verge of another huge downturn.

Hmmm, what makes you think the U.S. economy is on the verge of a huge downturn?

I don't see that happening, but hey I could be wrong.

 

[KINGS17]

I can’t have a discussion with you if you keep straw manning.

If you don’t want to pull a Visnovsky with Kopitar, that’s fine. I said from the very beginning it would be “dirty business.” But there’s no doubt the team would be in a much better long term cap situation without Kopitar’s $10 million boat anchor of a contract. This is irrefutable.

Again, you continue to evade the real problem here, which are years 21/22, 22/23, and 23/24. $3 million more cap space during prime rebuilding years (16/17 - 18/19) doesn’t particularly matter. But $10 million more cap space in 21/22 - 23/24 absolutely will.

The thing is as soon as Kopitar signed his contract, he received an NMC which went into effect immediately. His agent had a putt on the same line as Visnovsky's agent, only from further out, and saw which way the green broke.

 

[KINGS17]

My bad, I forgot they had 105 in '74, 2015-16 was actually the second most points in franchise history.

Which is actually really sad. Finishing 4th with 98 points, when there are three-point games isn't that big of a deal.