I disagree with the concept of ditching the dump and chase completely, because it is a necessary component of zone entries. I think that concept is the perfect example of how analytics can lead people astray because the game is not played in a spreadsheet. If you look at the analytics, controlled zone entries produce better possession, and more scoring chances than the dump and chase. So, analytically every team should focus solely on controlled zone entries, right? However, there are a few problems with that analysis.
First, controlled zone entries typically happen when the other team is at a disadvantage already, either an odd man rush or a turnover leading to a rapid rush catching the defenders on their heels. This situation is already a positive scenario, so the controlled zone entry did not play a major role in the success.
Second, if teams decide to focus mainly on controlled zone entry, defenders can stand up at the blue line to force more turnovers. The dump and chase forces defensemen to hedge back in order to retrieve and move the puck before the forecheck arrives. The dump and chase in itself assists in creating controlled zone entries, eliminating or minimizing the amount of times that you dump and chase will make controlled zone entries even more difficult.
Third, controlled zone entries are much more dangerous, a failed controlled zone entry can become dangerous very fast, leading to odd man rushes and defensemen on their heels. A failed dump and chase still has the puck 200 feet from your own goal.
Lastly, and this one is not as quantifiable, but the dump and chase with a heavy forecheck really wears on the opposition. The constant pressure and contact laid on defensemen seems to lead to turnovers over time, they have to contstantly look over their shoulders and move the puck quickly.
I am all for attempting more controlled zone entries, but a lot of analytics bloggers are out of their minds in their obsession with completely eliminating the dump and chase in my opinion.
I think last night was a great example of effective dump-and-chases and variance to keep defenders honest. It was simplicity at it's finest. Use speed/numbers to either back them off the blueline for a carry in, use a creative player like Kempe or Leipsic to carry it in regardless as he can cut through a forest, or dump it if they all cheat up.
Plus even closely 'losing' a dump and chase play forces the d-man to turn away from the play.
What i LIke most about guys like Kempe and Leipsic is they help to keep people honest by actually dangling and by the threat of making a move. I don't think Kopitar and Brown even bother anymore, none of our forwards had that element to make people guess.
You're a little off there. Gaborik had 5 goals, and Brown had 4. Kopitar had 7 assists.
Normally, you don't get to slide with your top C getting 0 goals(who also led the team in goals during the regular season). It's just another in the long line of amazing facts from the 2014 run. One more, Kopitar had 2 more shots on net than Lewis in those 12 games. In addition to the goals from Gaborik and Brown, Carter had 6, Toffoli/Doughty/Williams all had 4, Martinez/Muzzin had 3 each. They did it by having stupid production from all their depth for a month.
Sure, but remember that through 2 rounds, Kopitar was scoring at the Malkin Conn Smythe pace--it was only when the elite two-way lines met that that stopped for both Kopitar AND Toews.
I think you have to REALLY examine that series to appreciate how much respect Kopitar got from the Hawks. It's the reason the 70s line became a thing and ran amok--they literally stacked all their best defensive players (minus Krueger) vs. the Kopitar line. He spent the entire series glued to Toews, Hossa, Hjalmarsson. late in the series, they even added Keith to that, Keith, Toews, Hossa, Hjalmarsson, and rotating winger of Sharp/Bickel. Despite all that, he still got his points, and was +1 for the series, while keeping the also-dangerous Toews line nearly to a deadlock (couple more points than Kopitar but on the PP).
By the time he got to the Rangers, he had gone through Thornton, Getzlaf, and Toews and associates. Then he got stuck with McDonagh-Stralman-Stepan-Hagelin. And he was pretty well running them over by the shot counter, just couldn't get the puck to go in.
Also from the same article:
19. Jeff Carter, Kings – Carter has three more years on his deal that averages $5.27 million per season but the actual salary starts to take a dive next season, down to $3 million and then $2 million per season at the end. For teams that aren’t cap teams, that’s a good deal. There was some belief that Carter had loosened up the teams in which he’d be willing to join but a source close to him shot that down: “His preference continues to stay right where he is.”
20. Carl Hagelin, Kings – He’s not putting up a ton of points in Los Angeles, but to know Carl Hagelin is to appreciate him. He was Evgeni Malkin’s preferred linemate in Pittsburgh and immediately has endeared himself to teammates with the Kings. “Everyone loves playing with him,” said an NHL source. “He’s a guy who can play with anybody.”
I can see why. I think people would appreciate Hagelin more if we didn't have Trevor Lewis. Hagelin is actually better, imo.
