Player Discussion Kevin Hayes - Part II

[Edge]

He is only 26. And look at this production since December 2017 commenced. What he has been doing for 13 months basically. This cannot be looked as just a hot streak anymore. This has extended far beyond this past year.

Eh, his hot streaks are really hot and seem to balance out the down times.

Before this latest stretch, more than a month into the season he was actually on pace for career lows in goals and points.

The end result seems to put him in that 50-55 point range.

I feel like Hayes is one of those guys we really struggle to find a middle ground with on here.

He’s either an Elite second line center, or a doofus.

And I’m not really sure he’s either.

 

[True Blue]

For that I will go back to one of my popular comments:

If this team’s success comes down to not having Kevin Hayes on the roster, then we’re doomed anyway.

And if none of Howden, Andersson or Chytil can replace Kevin Hayes, than that’s just more dirt on top of the casket.

Honestly, Edge? Not sure that's fair to any of the parties This reads like you are disparaging Hayes and lumping him into the dreaded middle. What he has been doing since middle of last year is playing like he is NOT in the middle. Again, what do you believe? It "appears" that you are NOT a believer. That you do not believe that this is the newB normal for him. Which is all fair. At that point, I get your entire argument including the comparison of the 'yoots. However, if you believe that his level is that of an absolute elite level 2nd line two way center, then you are not being fair to the kids. How many elite 2nd line centers have the Rangers drafted in the last who knows how many years? That does not make Hayes appear to be run of the mill.

Again, it all depends on what your view of him is. I have other reasons why I think moving him is the better answer.

 

[True Blue]

I feel like Hayes is one of those guys we really struggle to find a middle ground with on here.

He’s either an Elite second line center, or a doofus.

And I’m not really sure he’s either.

And that answers that. If you DO not believe that he is that elite 2nd line center, than your argument is completely plausible. And I respect it.

 

[Edge]

Honestly, Edge? Not sure that's fair to any of the parties This reads like you are disparaging Hayes and lumping him into the dreaded middle. What he has been doing since middle of last year is playing like he is NOT in the middle. Again, what do you believe? It "appears" that you are NOT a believer. That you do not believe that this is the newB normal for him. Which is all fair. At that point, I get your entire argument including the comparison of the 'yoots. However, if you believe that his level is that of an absolute elite level 2nd line two way center, then you are not being fair to the kids. How many elite 2nd line centers have the Rangers drafted in the last who knows how many years? That does not make Hayes appear to be run of the mill.

Again, it all depends on what your view of him is. I have other reasons why I think moving him is the better answer.

I do not think Hayes is an elite second line center, no.

I think he is a very good second line center, who is capable of looking great and Pejorative Slured within the span of 60 minutes.

I think his value will never be higher.

I think his end result is about 20-25 goals and 55 points.

So yes, I guess you can put me down in the non-believer camp. I do not believe he is the difference maker for us. Not today, not in 2021, and not in 2024.

 

[Sarge13]

Chips for the game. Especially if we want to play at the high-roller table.

Some are too old to remember or not old enough to have been around, but it wasn't just Leetch, Richter, Kovalev and Zubov.

It took Leetch, Richter, Kovalev Zubov, Amonte, Weight, Zamuner, Dahlen, Malette, Lacriox, Janssens, Nemchinov, Turcotte, Rice, Prosofsky, Debrusk, Oksiuta, Miller, Cummins, Norstrom, Marchant, Hirsch, etc to build our last and only Cup winner in 7000 years.....

 

[Edge]

Some are too old to remember or not old enough to have been around, but it wasn't just Leetch, Richter, Kovalev and Zubov.

It took Leetch, Richter, Kovalev Zubov, Amonte, Weight, Zamuner, Dahlen, Malette, Lacriox, Jansesens, Nemchinov, Turcotte, Rice, Prosofsky, Debrusk, Oksiuta, Miller, Cummins, Norstrom, Marchant, Hirsch, etc to build our last and only Cup winner in 7000 years.....

There were A LOT of trades between 1990 and 1994.

 

[eco's bones]

At this point in time and speaking of Howden, Chytil and Andersson--I don't think any of them look close enough to handle a top 6 center role. Howden's offense has been floundering for well over a month. The most dangerous offensive player on his line is not him---it's been Vesey. Andersson and Chytil have both been pushed to wing. Andersson's skating still needs work and we've brought up Nieves to handle the 4C spot--moving him to the wing. Chytil can't win a face-off to save his life and if people don't think that's important--a 2C is going to get pwp time and if the first thing that always happens is he loses the draw--the second thing that happens is the puck gets cleared down the ice. All these guys can function as NHL players right now but they're not ready to become scoring line centers.

What a return for Hayes would look like is another question. Colorado's pick could be in the 20's---Winnipeg's almost certainly will be. A draft pick that late might turn out to be as good a player as Hayes or he might not and he'll probably take a couple/three years to get here.

Personally I would try to sign Kevin---I wouldn't give him trade protection though. That would at least leave the option open of trading him later if Chytil, Andersson or Howden start showing they are ready. He's a valuable player. He can put up offense--he can play in defensive situations. There will always be teams looking to add a player like that and IMO he's still got a window ahead of several years of productive play.

 

[Edge]

And that answers that. If you DO not believe that he is that elite 2nd line center, than your argument is completely plausible. And I respect it.

Personally, I think Hayes is a very good second line center.

But when I think back over the last 13 years or so, our challenge hasn’t really been finding guys who could be top-end second line centers. Our challenge has been finding legit first line centers.

Some times, often times, our first line centers were really very good second line centers who were asked to be first line centers. At best, they were 1A types. That’s not a knock on them, it’s something we’ve said on here in both good times and bad.

So, in that sense, I tend to lean towards the camp that likes what Hayes does and brings, but remains somewhat baffled by the pedestal he is sometimes put on this season. He’s not doing things that a second line center has never done for us before, or that we’ve been missing for a generation.

The biggest difference is that he’s doing on a team that doesn’t offer much competition for “positive memories” this season and last.

But at the end of the day, I still see a 20-25 goal, 55 point second line center. Even if I bump him up to 60 points, it’s not exactly a black diamond.

 

[Harbour Dog]

I'd agree that we probably are going to trade him, and that if a NMC is a sticking point that we probably should trade him.

But if he's willing to only take a full NMC for a couple years, then I see absolutely no reason to take any deal short of a coup on him now; especially if he's still on pace for 70+ points(!) in a month or two.

 

[Edge]

At this point in time and speaking of Howden, Chytil and Andersson--I don't think any of them look close enough to handle a top 6 center role. Howden's offense has been floundering for well over a month. The most dangerous offensive player on his line is not him---it's been Vesey. Andersson and Chytil have both been pushed to wing. Andersson's skating still needs work and we've brought up Nieves to handle the 4C spot--moving him to the wing. Chytil can't win a face-off to save his life and if people don't think that's important--a 2C is going to get pwp time and if the first thing that always happens is he loses the draw--the second thing that happens is the puck gets cleared down the ice. All these guys can function as NHL players right now but they're not ready to become scoring line centers.

What a return for Hayes would look like is another question. Colorado's pick could be in the 20's---Winnipeg's almost certainly will be. A draft pick that late might turn out to be as good a player as Hayes or he might not and he'll probably take a couple/three years to get here.

Personally I would try to sign Kevin---I wouldn't give him trade protection though. That would at least leave the option open of trading him later if Chytil, Andersson or Howden start showing they are ready. He's a valuable player. He can put up offense--he can play in defensive situations. There will always be teams looking to add a player like that and IMO he's still got a window ahead of several years of productive play.

I think it comes back to that same point that was mentioned months ago:

It would be shocking to see any contract for Hayes not have a pretty significant movement clause.

So it’s hard to engage in that hypothetical because they are very much exclusive.

It’s kind of like making a three for one trade and then lamenting that they guy you traded for would look good with the guys you just moved. They don’t exist in the same scenario.

 

[True Blue]

But at the end of the day, I still see a 20-25 goal, 55 point second line center. Even if I bump him up to 60 points, it’s not exactly a black diamond.

No, it's not. But if you bump him up to 65, then you have something that only 30 or so centers did in the entire league last year and only 8 or so teams had such players.

 

[eco's bones]

Hayes has 32 points in 36 games so far. There are 46 games left. Hayes needs 18 points in 46 games to hit 50 points--something he's never done before but if we prorated his numbers he'll go over an 82 game season he'd go over 70 and still be the Rangers main defensive center.

 

[True Blue]

It would be shocking to see any contract for Hayes not have a pretty significant movement clause.

So it’s hard to engage in that hypothetical because they are very much exclusive.

There is absolutely no chance of him not having that.

 

[Chaels Arms]

I'd bet the movement clause was the primary reason a long term deal didn't get done last summer.

 

[Edge]

No, it's not. But if you bump him up to 65, then you have something that only 30 or so centers did in the entire league last year and only 8 or so teams had such players.

I don’t see him as a 65 point center.

I see the ups and the downs balancing out to more like 55-60.

And I fear the up times convincing us that Hayes is more than that, and the Rangers giving him a contract that reflects that.

That is what I, and others, mean when we talk about regretting the contract in a season or two.

At various points this season, Zibanejad has been a 70 point center, Kreider has been a 40 goal scorer, ADA has been a 55 point defenseman, and Pionk has scored at a 60 point pace.

In the case of Kreider and Zibanejad, we could’ve made compelling arguments that this was a continuation of last season as well, and thus the new norm.

The idea of making decisions when most things are going on the upswing is concerning to me. And, if I’m being honest, there’s been a significant amount of paths outlined when that’s happened this season.

That, more than banking on unproven young talent, probably poses the greatest threat to what this team will need to do in order to be truly successful.

 

[mulli25]

I still have absolutely no idea why people keep thinking he's going to be taking some kind of super team friendly deal. If it was going to happen that way, it already would have.

He has the most leverage he will ever have in his professional career right now.

 

[eco's bones]

I think it comes back to that same point that was mentioned months ago:

It would be shocking to see any contract for Hayes not have a pretty significant movement clause.

So it’s hard to engage in that hypothetical because they are very much exclusive.

It’s kind of like making a three for one trade and then lamenting that they guy you traded for would look good with the guys you just moved. They don’t exist in the same scenario.

Well unless the Rangers try we're not going to find out. The Rangers (if they intend on trying to re-sign him) almost certainly already have an idea of what and how far they're willing to go to get him to sign. And if it's not close enough for the Hayes camp Gorton won't have much choice than to trade him. Moving him to a team with a later 1st though--that's not nearly enough IMO. He's a good player who can help another team immensely. If a trade happens though the Rangers center situation next year doesn't look very that good to me. There are real questions whether any of Howden, Chytil and Andersson are ready enough to step it up and become scoring line centers.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Bottom? Just take the two mid-late firsts we get for Hayes and make it a top 10, easy

And draft another Lias Andersson's that everyone complains about.

 

[Edge]

I'd bet the movement clause was the primary reason a long term deal didn't get done last summer.

I’d say with a degree of confidence that it was definitely a significant factor.

And frankly, even if Hayes LOVES the Rangers, there’s no reason for him not to demand one.

He is literally months away from total freedom, where he can choose his own destiny. This would make the second time in less than a decade he’s gone down this route. There’s a reason for that.

There is no reason for him to sign a deal, knowing he is a candidate to be moved in a year or two, and have no control over his destiny.

There’s reason for the Rangers to want that.

There’s reason for this board and it’s members to want that.

But it would be a I’ll-advised business decision.

And make no mistake, beyond that goofy face and approachable personality, Hayes’ camp is all business. Always has been.

 

[Edge]

I still have absolutely no idea why people keep thinking he's going to be taking some kind of super team friendly deal. If it was going to happen that way, it already would have.

He has the most leverage he will ever have in his professional career right now.

And he’s outlined this path.

This isn’t something that just happened. It’s been a business approach for almost a decade.

He was drafted by the Hawks, but became an UFA to sign with the Rangers. His contracts were signed with the Rangers to provide a potential window for him to become a UFA again at 27 and in his prime.

This was all done by design, and wisely so. It was a very smart, calculated approach by his agents. And it will result in two nice career moves for Hayes. I give him full props.

This is a business. It’s the fans that form deeeper emotional attachments. But there also not the ones with life-changing contracts sitting in front of them.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Some are too old to remember or not old enough to have been around, but it wasn't just Leetch, Richter, Kovalev and Zubov.

It took Leetch, Richter, Kovalev Zubov, Amonte, Weight, Zamuner, Dahlen, Malette, Lacriox, Janssens, Nemchinov, Turcotte, Rice, Prosofsky, Debrusk, Oksiuta, Miller, Cummins, Norstrom, Marchant, Hirsch, etc to build our last and only Cup winner in 7000 years.....

Don't forget having the organizational depth to trade guys Sandstrom, Granato and Vanbiesbrouk.

 

[Ghost of jas]

And draft another Lias Andersson's that everyone complains about.

Or draft another Kravtsov that everyone believes is our best prospect.

 

[Edge]

Or draft another Kravtsov that everyone believes is our best prospect.

And draft another Hayes, Kreider, Chytil, Miller, etc. with one of those late first rounders.

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

Lol what? It doesn't have to be a contract year thing but you're worrying about a 27 (for the sake of you ageists out there and to be fair we're talking about his next season production) year old player regressing?

The proof at hand is that Kevin Hayes entered the league and has steadily improved his production and performance. He's been thrown numerous assignments and tasks and goals and surpassed them all. Where does anyone here derive this notion that he is going to become this huge piece of crap and sit on a pile of money and give up? There's literally been not a single piece of evidence to support this yet plenty of evidence he's more than likely a 65 point elite two way center. By seasons end (lets say he puts up 75 points after continuing this tear and maintaining) we may be talking about a 70+ point elite two way center.

Cmon guys.

First of all he never put up 50 pts... Theres 100s of examples of guys performing an another level in contract years. I'm just saying be careful before you crown him and tie up a ton of money with him

 

[redwhiteandblue]

He's never broken 50 points. "More than likely a 65 point elite two way center," is a small leap.

I like him. I really do. And if we weren't paying 2.5 defensemen (counting the Girardi buyout) "core player" money, then there would be a contract slot for him. The thing is, ELC players often post 50 points. He's a good player, seems like a good dude, but is a bit of a luxury.

Hayes point totals:
'15 (22) 45 (I'd argue playing with MSL attributed to a point spike. Not from sheer force of scoring for him but being a good influence)
'16 (23) 36 (I'd say this is about where he should have been as a rookie. A good pace and production and replicated in year two establishing himself as a pro)
'17 (24) 49 (Takes a clear step forward in his development in a crucial year where you'd look for 'the next step'. Establishes himself as a legitimate very good middle 6 NHL center)
'18 (25) 44 (Is told by AV he needs to be a shut down center and be able to match up. He's handed new responsibilities and asked to change the way he plays his game. He still nearly matches his year 3 production all while becoming an elite two way guy who will shut down the top line and win face offs)
'19 (26) 32 (A 73 point pace from a 5th year player likely hitting his prime who has developed all facets of his game and responded well to every challenge the team gave him. Had he been not given certain responsibilities and rather than more opportunity he very well could have been a 55 point player and we're talking breakout player instead of trading him)

Please, someone show me in that timeline where he went off the rails was found in a Queens coke den and needs to be shipped out before he slobs up and regresses. I'm just confused. Justifying merit to shop him because we're rebuilding is fine but lets talk about Mike and CK too. Talking about trading him because he's going to regress, he's playing for a contract, or anything else is short sighted and narrow minded. Fortune favors the bold. This is not history repeating itself.